Ozeki 'co-operation'

[Kozaru 0]

This thread may not be popular here, but here goes anyway. I am not a technical sumo guy. I'm not going to use the argument of "he didn't grab the left-hand grip when that's his favourite move", or anything like that. What I will do is examine the pattern of who has won when Ozeki KK is on the line.

After watching the way the Ozeki matches nicely (and predictably) worked out in Kyushu 2008, I asked myself a question:

When was the last time that an already KK Ozeki sent one of his fellow Ozeki to MK? For these purposes, I used matches from Day 13 - Day 15 of a basho.

Using the sumo database, I found that the last time that it happened was in Haru 2007, when on Day 13, Hakuho defeated Chiyotaikai, giving him his 6th loss. Chiyo would go on to MK that basho after being henkad by Asashoryu on Day 15. This one can be dismissed since Hakuho was in the yusho lead and it would be the first basho in his successful Yokozuna run.

So when was the last time before that one? One when a guy wasn't on a Yokozuna run?

It was Aki 2003, when Tochiazuma handed Kaio his 7th loss on Day 14. Kaio would go on to MK.

When was the last time that the actual 8th loss was handed out by an already KK Ozeki?

Haru 2002, when Musoyama dealt the 8th loss to Chiyotaikai on Day 15.

From Natsu 2006 to present day (the current crop of Ozeki), there have been 9 opportunities for an Ozeki to give an 8th win to another Ozeki without damaging his own Yokozuna run. The results? Nine wins for the needy Ozeki. That's 100%.

Some have accused the 'co-operation' watchers of wearing tinfoil hats. Are you still sure? I'm sorry if you don't like it or don't want to hear it, but it shouldn't just be swept under the carpet. This is the reality of the situation, and reality must be acknowledged.

You can look at the results for yourself by using this link:

http://sumodb.sumogames.com/Query_bout.asp...amp;show_form=0

Edited November 24, 2008 by Kozaru

[Kintamayama 44,667]

Some have accused the 'co-operation' watchers of wearing tinfoil hats. Are you still sure? I'm sorry if you don't like it or don't want to hear it, but it shouldn't just be swept under the carpet. This is the reality of the situation, and reality must be acknowledged.

It's all circumstantial evidence and conjecture at best, and totally inadmissible in this courtroom. Next, you'll be testifying on behalf of the Shuukan Gendai.

This is all a pack of factual lies. B-)

[Kozaru 0]

You're right, it is circumstantial evidence. Such evidence may not be admissible in a courtroom (which is why I was rejected as an expert witness in the current trial), but in the realm of common sense and experience in our every day lives, we use it all the time.

Let's put a number on it. Let's give each needy Ozeki a 60% chance of winning each match, with the edge due to extra motivation. At those odds, the chances of the last 9 matches going this way are 1%. So I'll give you about a 1% chance that it's all legitimate. Ninety-nine percent says something smells. Even at odds of 70% for the needy Ozeki, 96% says something's wrong. At 80% odds, still 87% says it smells. Even at a staggering 90% odds for the needy Ozeki due to sheer motivation, it's still 61% that at least some of the matches were fixed! You can deny all you want, but if you were to deny these kinds of odds in any situation in real life, your friends would be seriously questioning your judgment.

You don't think I WANT TO BELIEVE that it's legitimate? I do, so much! Seeing this kind of thing happen, while being good for my Sumo Game picks, does drain some of the fun out of the basho. But it has become plainly obvious that these current Ozeki are working together on some level. If you think this kind of discussion ruins the basho, just don't click on it anymore!

Edited November 24, 2008 by Kozaru

[HenryK 38]

Well I give you that this basho didn't looked nice. All results from day 13 came in exactly as they had to in order to grant Chiyotaikai and Kotooshu KK. Including Chiyotakai's hatakikomi win over Kotomitsuki--a guy he's been 4-11 against in the past 3 years--and that prevented a 7-7 matchup between Osh and Taikai on senshukaru (hence Taikai could safely slip). Even worse looked Haru 08, when all three competing Ozeki came out exactly 8-7.

All this isn't evidence of open match-fixing, however, but may rather reflect -- as your title suggests -- a silent understanding between Ozeki "I give you what you need this time, but next time when I'm in need you remember". It would certainly be in their career interest to act this way. The reason why these kind of threads aren't popular, I guess, is that when you think it through there are so many situations where collusion could be mutually helpful for rikishi. It would surely made have sense, for example, for Hakuho and Ama to agree ex-ante on splitting their bouts the way they did. Thinking too much about this is sickening and can spoil everything, hence better to not to engage into it.

[Jonosuke 28]

Only one simple question.

Can you tell me how both Miyabiyama and Dejima are no longer ozeki? I am kind of fond of these guys.

If you can provide a reasonable explanation or two, I will try to consider your erudite theory.

Edited November 24, 2008 by Jonosuke

[Harry 67]

Sometimes I just shouldn't think about it at all... "Ozumo wa puroresu ja nai, ozumo wa puroresu ja nai, ozumo wa puroresu ja nai..."

[Kozaru 0]

Only one simple question.

Can you tell me how both Miyabiyama and Dejima are no longer ozeki? I am kind of fond of these guys.

If you can provide a reasonable explanation or two, I will try to consider your erudite theory.

My current argument relates only to the current crop, of which those two were not members. The trend stopped going back farther than 2006. As Kaio and Chiyo age and need support to maintain their rank, it may have gotten worse.

So the answer to your question is that the past before 2006 is irrelevant, because it is not in the scope of my argument.

But anyway, Dejima withdrew with an injury in his kadoban basho, so got demoted. Miyabiyama also withdrew, and in fact sat out the next 2 basho as well.

Does that answer your question? Will you consider my theory now? I think those were pretty damn good answers.

Edited November 24, 2008 by Kozaru

[HenryK 38]

Only one simple question.

Can you tell me how both Miyabiyama and Dejima are no longer ozeki? I am kind of fond of these guys.

If you can provide a reasonable explanation or two, I will try to consider your erudite theory.

Playing devil's advocate:

REASON 1: both got demoted when injury prevented them from completing the basho (and thus from receiving "cooperation").

REASON 2: both were demoted in 2001, while accumulution of "cooperative" outcomes is a more recent phenomenon.

[Kozaru 0]

Thanks Henry, we're on the same page, I think. I know that my previous post was not posted before you started writing.

Anyways, I'd like to rest my case, but I might be back for more. I have nothing much more to say after providing the statistics and defending the Dejima/Miyabi demotions. Those who can see the numbers for what they are will probably realise that the chances are very high that it isn't all legit. Those who want to continue to deny it, will see the statistics as nothing more than a coincidence. I hope those of you who think it's a coincidence will have more matches against me in Sumo Game in the final days of future bashos.

[Gugily 0]

First, I don't think that the Hakuho/Chiyotaikai should just be ignored. It feels like ignoring a sample that doesn't agree with the theory. That means that it's either 7 wins in a row for the needy Ozeki or 9 of 10.

One thing I noticed when looking at the database query was that 3 of those 7 matches were Kotooshu beating Chiyotaikai. It occurs to me that Kotooshu has dominated Chiyotaikai head-to-head, so maybe seven in a row isn't really a big deal.

What I came up with was a terribly rough and quick way of putting a percentage of winning for the needy Ozeki, by taking their head-to-head record at that time. Obviously, there is a big problem with taking lifetime stats which could be accumulated over years and applying them to the present(Kotomitsuki should be considered a bigger favorite against both Kaio and Chiyotaikai than the head-to-head data would suggest, for instance), but it gave me some idea.

Taking the chance for all seven and multiplying them together, you get a 1.9% chance of everything happening as it did.

Obviously, there is a selection bias here, counting from the beginning of a streak, and seven is still a rather small sample size. Something of this probability could happen innocently, or there could be another reason for why there seems to be a greater chance of victory(a greater desire to win, obviously).

If this is true, why is it a recent development? I'm sure people can come up with a number of explanations, so I'll throw in one. Kosho. Maybe when the Ozeki couldn't safely withdraw due to injury, they decided they needed something else to maintain their rank.

I think that cooperation between Ozeki does happen, but I also don't worry about it too much. What I know, though, is that the information Kozaru brought is at least worth more discussion than being lumped into the same category as saying that Asashoryu needed to buy 11 of his victories in one basho.

[Jonosuke 28]

Sorry I didn't realize that the theory only applied to the current ozeki, specifically the four ozeki we have now.

I was going to ask for Takanonami as well but obviously he doesn't fit into your formula.

So as for Dejima and Miyabiyama, once an injury, the co-operation goes right out of the window then but I doubt it for them it worked even before their injury.

Anyway I mistook this to apply to all ozeki generally throughout the recent history like, say, after the World War II or the beginning of the Showa Era.

My apology for wasting your time.

Perhaps you can take a look at the cooperation by all Mongolians or Georgians or Nichi-dai and Saitama Sakae grads, I am sure you will find something there too.

[HenryK 38]

So as for Dejima and Miyabiyama, once an injury, the co-operation goes right out of the window

That's not it. The other Ozeki couldn't assist Dejima and Miyabiyama in their hour of need (to avoid demotion) because M/D were injured.

[Gugily 0]

Sorry I didn't realize that the theory only applied to the current ozeki, specifically the four ozeki we have now.

"As long as it's only the current Ozeki who cooperate with each other to get everyone to their 8 wins, not all Ozeki all-time, I'm fine with it"

Seems backwards to me, but who knows.

Also, regarding Georgians:

In Nagoya, Kokkai(M10) was 2-5 and Tochinoshin(M14) was 5-2 going into Day 8, Kokkai won. Kokkai finished with a 5-10 record, Tochinoshin an 8-7 record.

In Aki, Tochinoshin(M10) was 6-4 and Kokkai(M16) was 7-3 going into Day 11, Tochinoshin won. Both would finish 8-7

Neither of them has faced Gagamaru(Ms32, 6-1 in Kyushu)

An extremely powerful pattern, these two results have convinced me that all those Ozeki matches saw 100% effort from all sides!

[Asojima 2,873]

At least three of the four current ozekis compete with only two goals in mind: yusho and survival. As long as there is a possibility of a yusho, they go all out without fear. When the yusho is not an option, they go for eight wins. They weigh the danger of their effort against the likelihood that it may contribute to achieving the 8th win and compete accordingly. When they get their 8th win, they go through the motions with a primary aim of protecting against injury. They have nothing further to gain. When there is no possibility of getting the 8th win, they withdraw to eliminate the possibility of (further) injury. What you are judging as a cooperative effort in the late going is simply the fact that one of the competitors has nothing further to gain, and frankly, doesn't give a damn. (Detective...)

Edited November 24, 2008 by Asojima

[Gusoyama 99]

Correlation does not imply causation

That said, I think your argument holds a lot more water than the single-bout yaochoists. I think its a combination of things, personally. The "Don't give a damn" attitude by the KK guy, the "GOTTA WIN TO SURVIVE" attitude of the 7-7 guy, and maybe the KK guy doesn't go full out because he doesn't want to be the one to hand someone their 8th loss. I definitely think this is true of Kotomitsuki/Kaio a few bashos back where it not only would have meant MK, it would have likely meant intai. So yes, there may be something to your argument, but I doubt its as black and white as you make it.

[Jakusotsu 5,877]

Just ask yourself: if you were Kaio at 8-6, would you want to win against Chiyotaikai at 7-7?

I certainly wouldn't - no prior arrangements or master plan required.

Does it take something away from Ozumo? Not a bit, in my opinion.

[Harry 67]

Might have something to do with the Japanese concepts of collective truth, honor and face saving as well. Even though they are competitors they are all rikishi. They do things differently over there, that's for sure.

[HenryK 38]

Just ask yourself: if you were Kaio at 8-6, would you want to win against Chiyotaikai at 7-7?

I certainly wouldn't - no prior arrangements or master plan required.

Agreed.

Does it take something away from Ozumo? Not a bit, in my opinion.

Hmmmm... yes it does a bit, in my opinion. But then there is nothing that can be done about it.

Edited November 24, 2008 by HenryK

[Asashosakari 19,034]

When they get their 8th win, they go through the motions with a primary aim of protecting against injury. They have nothing further to gain. When there is no possibility of getting the 8th win, they withdraw to eliminate the possibility of (further) injury.

To expand on that a bit - I know the party line (right down from the Kyokai directorate) is that "not going all out increases your likelihood of injury", which frankly I think is a load of BS when we're talking about makuuchi veterans. When you've been around as long as the ozeki, surely you know how to go at reduced effort without screwing yourself up, and you've also faced most of your opponents often enough that you have a pretty good idea what they're going to throw at you so you can plan ahead accordingly.

So as for Dejima and Miyabiyama, once an injury, the co-operation goes right out of the window then but I doubt it for them it worked even before their injury.

In fairness to Kozaru's theory, Miyabiyama isn't much of a case since he ended up being so injured that he even missed his 10-5 return opportunity from sekiwake altogether. (Edit: Bah, I should have read the whole thread. Sorry Kozaru, didn't see you'd already addressed that point.)

And to play devil's advocate - maybe the glut of Musashigawa top-rankers at the time wasn't very conducive to any shenanigans? With Musoyama, Miyabiyama, Dejima and Musashimaru all up there, Dejima and Miyabiyama didn't exactly have many other ozeki with whom to trade wins around.

Edit yet again: And of course prior to that, we had the Futagoyama triumvirate who by all accounts had the gachinko drilled into them by stable policy. I don't think it's fair to dismiss the cooperation argument simply because it can't be expanded backward in time. (Though as usual I'm still more in the "unilateral decisions to not give a damn probably account for a lot more than people give it credit for" camp.)

Edited November 24, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Kozaru 0]

Glad that people are at least discussing this and not calling me names :-)

Whether it's backroom dealings with money changing hands in a smoky bar, silent understandings, one rikishi not giving a damn, or one just not wanting to retire his peer, the bottom line is exactly the same. That is that the results of the match can be determined in advance with near certainty.

However, I expect this to possibly change in the next basho. I really, really think that Kaio is ready to go. These injuries can't get any easier as you get older. When he's ready to go and has made peace with that, we might see the Ozeki give him some farewell battles, if he even makes it that far into the basho. Nothing would be more appropriate than Kaio being retired by a fair fight on Day 15 with his longtime peer and equal, Chiyotaikai.

Edited November 24, 2008 by Kozaru

[Asashosakari 19,034]

(Help, I need a "meta comment" smiley...)

Glad that people are at least discussing this and not calling me names :-)

The following isn't intended to be snarky, since I'm genuinely glad you've decided to participate here outside of the Games section, but...please do tone down the smugness a tiny little bit. We're not particularly given to calling people names around here, but some relative newcomer starting out with the following:

If you think this kind of discussion ruins the basho, just don't click on it anymore!

or

Does that answer your question? Will you consider my theory now? I think those were pretty damn good answers.

...isn't going to help. Especially when the first of those statements comes in response to Kintamayama who really is one of the most mellow guys on this or any contentious issue on this forum. Besides, I have a strong suspicion he slipped a clever double entendre right by you with that "factual lies" quip, which makes your response inadvertantly hilarious.

Edited November 24, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Kintamayama 44,667]

Besides, I have a strong suspicion he slipped a clever double entendre right by you with that "factual lies" quip, which makes your response inadvertantly hilarious.

Yes, to be sure. I think what Kozaru says is totally true, but unlike him, I wouldn't bundle it with yaocho, chusha, geisha or smoky dealings, but rather, friendship and respect. I also would have to agree with those that say there is no place for such mushiness in combat sports like sumo, but still..

I'll even take this a step further. Relative newcomers (Japanese, to be sure) like Goueidou, Houmashou, or Tochiouzan and Toyohibiki (when available) would NEVER beat a veteran Ozeki teetering on the brink of MK, and not always because they are not capable of it.

I'm pretty sure this was not the case in the past, but the results of these past 5-6 years or so point to this, what can I say..

Edited November 24, 2008 by Kintamayama

[Toukeigakusha 0]

Would the Kyokai even have to tell their rikishi to "go all out" if they had a ranking system that didn't create lots of situations where a win means almost everything for one opponent and almost nothing for the other?

The huge importance of the kachikoshi creates so many situations where it's just reasonable not to go all out and be 'cooperative' instead, from the perspective of game theory. Then again, sekitori aren't supposed to act reasonably, they are supposed to act honorably... still I think the whole situation is mostly homemade by the banzuke mechanism. If they'd change that, they'd eliminate most of the 'friendliness'.

There's that Itai claiming in court these days to have done yaocho. Watching his stats before he became Komosubi made me aware of something:

03/1983: M13E 8-7  (+16 pos for +1 wins)
05/1983: M05E 6-9  (- 7 pos for -2 wins)
07/1983: M08W 8-7  (+ 5 pos for +1 wins)
09/1983: M06E 8-7  (+ 9 pos for +1 wins)
11/1983: M01W 5-10 (-12 pos for -3 wins)
01/1984: M07W 8-7  (+11 pos for +1 wins, that's 43:47 wins but M13E up to M02E)
03/1984: M02E 2-13
05/1984: M13E 9-6  (+11 pos for +2 wins)
07/1984: M07W 9-6  (+10 pos for +2 wins)
09/1984: M02W 6-9  (-11 pos for -2 wins)
11/1984: M08E 8-7  (+ 7 pos for +1 wins)
01/1985: M04W 6-9  (- 7 pos for -2 wins)
03/1985: M08E 9-6  (+10 pos for +2 wins)
05/1985: M03E 5-10 (- 8 pos for -3 wins)
07/1985: M07E 7-8  (- 4 pos for -1 wins)
09/1985: M09E 8-7  (+13 pos for +1 wins, that's 67:68 wins but M13E up to M02E)
11/1985: M02W 2-8-4
01/1986: M13W 0-0-15
03/1986: M13W 9-6  (+14 pos for +2 wins)
05/1986: M06W 9-6  (+11 pos for +2 wins)
07/1986: M01E 2-13 (-22 pos for -6 wins, that's 20:25 wins but M13W up to M12E)
09/1986: M12E 10-5 (+18 pos for +3 wins)
11/1986: M03E 5-10 (-15 pos for -3 wins)
01/1987: M10W 9-6  (+15 pos for +2 wins)
03/1987: M03E 4-11 (-15 pos for -4 wins, that's 28:32 wins but M12E up to M10W)
05/1987: M10W 8-7  (+12 pos for +1 wins)
07/1987: M04W 6-9  (-11 pos for -2 wins)
09/1987: M10E 9-6  (+16 pos for +2 wins)
11/1987: M02E 4-11 (-16 pos for -4 wins)
01/1988: M10E 8-7  (+12 pos for +1 wins)
03/1988: M04E 6-9  (- 7 pos for -2 wins)
05/1988: M07W 8-7  (+10 pos for +1 wins, that's 49:57 wins but M10W up to M02W!)
07/1988: M02W 3-12
09/1988: M11E 9-6  (+13 pos for +2 wins)
11/1988: M04W 3-12 (-12 pos for -5 wins)
01/1989: M10W 8-7  (+ 7 pos for +1 wins, that's 20:25 wins but M11E up to M07E)
03/1989: M07E 11-4

In every single period he lost more matches than he won, and still climbed up the banzuke every time.

Apparently it wasn't really about winning matches back in his days. Kachikoshis were rewarded excessively, high makekoshis weren't that much of a deal. Apart from retirements, the banzuke is supposed to be a zero-sum game, and those get "banzuke luck" do that at the expense of their fellow rikishi. But if you noticed that, wouldn't you be tempted to "trade wins" with some of your fellow rikishi to "seesaw through the banzuke"? Regardless what actually happened, Itai did that ride very efficient, making no less than ten 8-7 kachikoshi but just one 7-8 makekoshi. Very efficient, to say the least.

[Asashosakari 19,034]

Apparently it wasn't really about winning matches back in his days. Kachikoshis were rewarded excessively, high makekoshis weren't that much of a deal. Apart from retirements, the banzuke is supposed to be a zero-sum game, and those get "banzuke luck" do that at the expense of their fellow rikishi.

That works all the way up to juryo but not in (high) makuuchi where the rikishi who tend to put up strongly positive records (sekiwake and above) can't rise much further. The maegashira MK demotions are smaller than the KK promotions because maegashira as a group score strongly in the negative numbers in most basho, and the effect is more pronounced when the top-rankers are particularly strong (definitely true for Chiyonofuji's period and also the mid-1990s, not so much these days).

Edited November 25, 2008 by Asashosakari

[mokele 3]

Only one simple question.

Can you tell me how both Miyabiyama and Dejima are no longer ozeki? I am kind of fond of these guys.

If you can provide a reasonable explanation or two, I will try to consider your erudite theory.

Takanonami (and if you want to go back a few years, Konishiki) should also be added to your list.

I noticed that Kotooshu has been "on the bubble" with 7-7 going into senshuraku many times over the past few years, and has almost always won his final bout. Kotomitsuki has done a similar thing a few times. Honestly, my sense is that on most of those occasions, Kotooshu and Kotomitsuki were just out of sorts in the earlier part of the basho, and finally were fighting properly near the end. Were their fellow ozeki throwing bouts to them on senshuraku? I haven't the slightest idea, but it's a reasonable hypothesis.

I never said that yao-cho do not occasionally happen in sumo, just that it isn't very common, less than 5% of all bouts is my guess, and that any attempts by the Nihon Sumo Kyokai to prevent yao-cho might be a case of the cure being worse than the disease.

Edited November 25, 2008 by mokele