Ozeki Back-Scratchers' Club

[Jejima 1,354]

First of all, I don't subscribe to this nonsense of an Ozeki Back-Scratchers Club (OBSC) - where they help each other out - but what if I did.....?

Alleged members of the club:-

Kaio, Chiyotaikai, Kotomitsuki and Kotooshu

Unknown:-

Harumafuji

Chiyotaikai is two losses away from MK, and has yet to meet the Yokozunas. I suspect he will end up MK, and could well go kyujo very soon.

Today, there is the first ozeki vs ozeki match-up.

Kaio will face Kotomitsuki. Although Kotomitsuki has the better record in these matches (21 wins to 14), they have split their past 6 meetings, with Kaio winning the last one - so closer than you think. Kaio has been looking surprisingly genki this basho, and already has 6 wins (only a loss on day 1), including against Baruto, Goeido and Kotoshogiku. Kotomistuki has quite a good basho too, now at 5-2, but his victories have all been against 'lesser rikishi' - and he has lost to Kisenosato and the Miyabiyiflobmonster.

I would suggest that on balance, Kaio would be a slight favourite for this bout.....

However, Kotomitsuki is now kadoban, and still has a fairly hard slate ahead of him. A win today would do him a world of good.

Kaio needs 2 more wins, and should face Tochiozan as one of them, plus Chiyotaikai or Chiyotaikai's lower ranked replacement (if 'Taikai has gone kyujo), which should be enough for his 8 (on the basis that 'Taikai is a member of the OBSC, and his MK is a foregone conclusion.)

Therefore, according to the philosophy of the OBSC, Kotomitsuki needs today's win more, and so give him the win today ;-)

Please note, all the above is tongue-in-cheek, and is an idea from topics from last basho....

[Asojima 2,873]

By Asojima's Formulation:

Kaio is still theoretically in the yusho race, and has not yet achieved KK. He gives a damn.

Mickey has 8 chances to get the 3 wins he needs to clear his kadoban. He definitely cannot afford an injury.

Mickey plays it safe to live for another day. Kaio goes for it. U's kachi. ;-)

[Jejima 1,354]

By Asojima's Formulation:

Kaio is still theoretically in the yusho race, and has not yet achieved KK. He gives a damn.

Mickey has 8 chances to get the 3 wins he needs to clear his kadoban. He definitely cannot afford an injury.

Mickey plays it safe to live for another day. Kaio goes for it. U's kachi. ;-)

Deeper thought....

Kaio knows (deep down) that he is not a serious yusho challenger. He is more concerned about a) remaining in ozumo (which means remaining at his ozeki rank) b) collecting the record for most basho in Makunouchi, and perhaps c) collecting the record for the most Makunouchi wins. [Did I get these ones right? I thought he was also chasing the Ozeki longest record, until I recalled Chiyotaikai].

He is almost certain to get his KK this basho, so can afford to lose to Mickey today. Mickey still needs to face both Yokozunas, Harumafuji (who may not be an OBSC member), Baruto, Goeido, (Chiyotaikai), and ?Takekaze? So if Mickey loses today, he will need to defeat 3 of those.... I think, he will feel a lot more comfortable if he secures his 6th win today.

Although I understand your thought, I think it goes against the 'OBSC' theory, as it states, 'Whichever Ozeki (in the club) needs the win most, will win'. I think in this case, Mickey needs the win more.....

However, you have provided a nice loop-hole (to keep this silly theory going) should Kaio win, as I will argue that he got it (using your prior post as evidence) because he needed it more because he is a yusho contender....

It will be nice to watch today's bout between them. If Kaio comes out all-spirited, then I think you are right. If (as my interpretation of this bogus theory suspects) he is quickly pushed up by a charging Kotomitsuki, and then limply oshi-dashied out of the dohyo, then I think I have interpreted the OBSC theory correctly.

(Still all tongue-in-cheek, from my part)

[Jejima 1,354]

Well Miki won....

To quote Clyde Newton from today's NHK English broadcast....

"Kaio did absolutely nothing - was waiting to be beaten. Kotomitsuki was taking on a statue."

Proves nothing of course ;-)

There is no such thing as the OBSC (Clapping wildly...)

Edit: Tongue still fully in cheek.

Edited March 22, 2009 by Jejima

[kame 0]

Well Miki won....

To quote Clyde Newton from today's NHK English broadcast....

"Kaio did absolutely nothing - was waiting to be beaten. Kotomitsuki was taking on a statue."

Proves nothing of course ;-)

There is no such thing as the OBSC (Clapping wildly...)

Edit: Tongue still fully in cheek.

Tongue still in cheek but have you even gotten one of these wrong? I think you're 4 or 5-0.

[Washuyama 638]

Every time I talk tongue in cheek, I bite my tongue... :-P

[Jejima 1,354]

Well Miki won....

To quote Clyde Newton from today's NHK English broadcast....

"Kaio did absolutely nothing - was waiting to be beaten. Kotomitsuki was taking on a statue."

Proves nothing of course :-P

There is no such thing as the OBSC ;-)

Edit: Tongue still fully in cheek.

Tongue still in cheek but have you even gotten one of these wrong? I think you're 4 or 5-0.

a) I don't think I have got any of these predictions wrong since I started....

b) I think I am better than 5-0 (don't know what exactly - maybe not all predictions posted here or elsewhere)

c) Tongue still very firmly in cheek ;-)

Edit: The main reason why I am predicting publicly this basho is to be proved wrong. I will be very happy when that happens, as it may stop all this co-operative Ozeki nonsense. Tomorrow's all-ozeki bouts (day 9) are a little more tricky to read - if you follow this insane theory - hence I will wait until tomorrow morning's coffee before theorising some more rubbish. But - in the meantime - I would be very interested to read anyojne else's take on them. (Remember, the first rule* of the OSBC is whoever needs the win most, will win. ;-))

2nd edit: Kotomitsuki had defeated Kaio 2 times out of 3 in past meetings - so his win today was not really that surprising. So don't be too confuddled by what you might see on a replay of this bout - despite what Clyde Newton said (and he really did).

*Actually, the only rule.

Edited March 22, 2009 by Jejima

[Bilu 0]

Well Miki won....

To quote Clyde Newton from today's NHK English broadcast....

"Kaio did absolutely nothing - was waiting to be beaten. Kotomitsuki was taking on a statue."

Proves nothing of course :-P

There is no such thing as the OBSC ;-)

Edit: Tongue still fully in cheek.

Tongue still in cheek but have you even gotten one of these wrong? I think you're 4 or 5-0.

a) I don't think I have got any of these predictions wrong since I started....

b) I think I am better than 5-0 (don't know what exactly - maybe not all predictions posted here or elsewhere)

c) Tongue still very firmly in cheek ;-)

I agree completely. The OSBC legend lives on...

If I were to believe in legends, I would predict that as long as Taikai stays, he will be collecting favors for the next time around (TIC, of course).

[Xris 2]

Chiyotakai has nothing to loose anymore, so...

he won't go kyujo before giving to each of his fellow ozekis a win (kaio tomorrow, then kotoosho, then mickey - harumafuji I don't know yet).

[Asashosakari 19,028]

Chiyotakai has nothing to loose anymore, so...

he won't go kyujo before giving to each of his fellow ozekis a win (kaio tomorrow, then kotoosho, then mickey - harumafuji I don't know yet).

Even if he stays in, he won't face Kotooshu until Day 15. Which means it won't happen (short of a sudden winning streak, but for that idea I'm obviously in the wrong thread) - there's no way the guys in charge are going to have a 3-11 or whatever ozeki in the penultimate bout of the tournament, so he'll get leaned on to quit the basho earlier than that.

Kotomitsuki already pushed it last basho staying in until his 9th loss. If he keeps losing, I'd bet that Taikai gets leaned on to exit right after loss #8 (Day 10, with a fusen on Day 11). Any later than that, and we're going to have a thrilling bout such as Hakuho-Yoshikaze on Day 14 because they'll have exhausted all other high-profile replacement bouts already, i.e. Hakuho vs. Kaio or Harumafuji, which normally will have to take place until Day 12, and there's no overachieving maegashira to put into Chiyotaikai's schedule spot this basho either. (Wait, there's not a single maegashira better than 5-3?! Gawd.)

Edited March 22, 2009 by Asashosakari

[Zentoryu 154]

First of all, I don't subscribe to this nonsense of an Ozeki Back-Scratchers Club (OBSC) - where they help each other out - but what if I did.....?

For someone who doesn't subscribe to it, you sure spend an inordinate amount of time thinking and writing about it... :-P

[Jakusotsu 5,876]

For someone who doesn't subscribe to it, you sure spend an inordinate amount of time thinking and writing about it... :-P

Well, even the devil's advocate needs to do his homework. ;-)

[Jejima 1,354]

I have done my homework for today.... (Holiday feeling...)

Let's look at who the Ozekis have still to face....

Kaio:

Today = Chiyotaikai

Asashoryu, Hakuho, Kisenosato, Kotooshu, Harumafuji, Tochiozan

Kotooshu:

Today = Harumafuji

Asashoryu, Hakuho, Kaio, Chiyotaikai, Goeido, (?Takekaze?)

Kotomitsuki:

Today = Hakuho

Asashoryu, Chiyotaikai, Harumafuji, Baruto, Goeido, (?Takekaze?)

Harumafuji:

Today = Kotooshu

Asashoryu, Hakuho, Kotomitsuki, Kaio, Chiyotaikai, (?Miyabiyama? or ?Tokitenku? or ?Takekaze?)

Chiyotaikai:

Today = Kaio

Asashoryu, Hakuho, Kotomitsuki, Kotooshu, Harumafuji, (?Miyabiyama?)

Looks as if Takekaze will be kept busy over the next few days!

Okay, we have two match-ups involving all-ozeki today.

Chiyotaikai (2-6) vs Kaio (6-2)

Kaio leads in their head-to-heads (29-19), and won the last bout between them. But in recent times, they've pretty much split their wins. Chiyotaikai has had a nightmare of a basho so far, whereas Kaio is doing very well (for him) in his his first week. So on paper, it looks as if Kaio is 'good to go' here.

In fact, some may think that 'Taikai has already given up on this basho, (for he can only afford one more loss, before MK - and still has to meet both red-hot Yokozunas), in which case he will fall on his sword for the benefit of his (alleged) OBSC members..... But, I think maybe not. Kaio is not kadoban, so can actually afford an MK basho, but looking at his opponents (including at least one more OSBC member, as well as Tochiozan), I think he can still be mostly confident of getting his KK, even if he loses today.

It's a big ask, but 'Taikai also has a chance of getting his KK. I am fairly sure he will be 'thrown a bone' with the Miyabiflobmonster, who will go down like a sack of potatoes, which leaves him with fellow OSBC members (if Harumafuji has signed up), and the two Yokozunas - of which he'll need to defeat one of them. After the look on his face yesterday, (when he defeated Kisenosato), I don't think he has 'given up' yet, and so is not ready to fall on his sword for his fellow ozekis.

So, with some misgivings, and working strictly on the rule of the OSBC, I say that Chiyotaikai will win today....

Next is Kotooshu (5-3) vs Harumafuji (5-3)

They are 9-9 in their rivalry, but Harry has won the last 4. However, Harumafuji has been looking 'poor' this basho.

We don't have any real evidence to suggest that Harumafuji has joined the imaginary OSBC - but let's pretend he has. Well, they have an equal score at this stage of the basho, and both have some danger of still ending up MK. Which one needs today's win most? They both have a similar slate for the remainder of the basho, and it could be a little tough for each of them to secure three wins after today (especially if 'Taikai is still in with a chance - hopefully for them he will face a Yokozuna or two quickly, to make him MK, and so change his responsibility to the OSBC), so a win today would be very useful for either. However, Harumafuji will need to face Kotomitsuki (who Kotooshu does not need to meet), and this could be the key. Is it possible that Harumafuji would 'trade' a loss for a win against these two stable-mates? (Deep, deep conspiracy theory!) In which case, who out of Kotooshu and Kotomitsuki needs the win more? (I know, I am really going into the realm of fantasy here!) Kotomitsuki now has an extra win over his heya-mate... so that could be against him. But, on the other-hand, Miki is kadoban, and so really needs his KK this basho. Therefore, (again with misgivings), my very long analysis leads me to conclude that if indeed Harumafuji is a member of the OBSC, he will get the win today.

Nothing above should be taken seriously - I certainly don't as I have placed Harumafuji on the bench for Bench Sumo. Also, it has taken a lot of work to make the OBSC theory work today, due to the current basho records of the Ozeki - so much so, it has been stretched to beyond breaking point (Hugging...)

Anyways, Chiyotaikai and Harumafuji to win.

[Amanohashidate 0]

Kaio has no incentive to lose to Chiotaikai as he is not yet sure of his own KK. On the other hand, Chiotaikai is 95% sure will finish MK/kyuujo. It's much easier for him to lose this bout and to look for some favour return from Kaio next basho. As for Osh and Harumafuji, it can go either way.

Anyway, I think the OSBC members will gather for a meeting toward the end of the basho, when there is more clarity about who needs a win or two. It's still too early for them to make any calculations

[Doitsuyama 1,178]

Kaio has no incentive to lose to Chiotaikai as he is not yet sure of his own KK. On the other hand, Chiotaikai is 95% sure will finish MK/kyuujo. It's much easier for him to lose this bout and to look for some favour return from Kaio next basho. As for Osh and Harumafuji, it can go either way.

Anyway, I think the OSBC members will gather for a meeting toward the end of the basho, when there is more clarity about who needs a win or two. It's still too early for them to make any calculations

"Favour returns next basho" aren't that useful if the only rule of the OBSC is to give the win to the one who needs it most NOW in each basho. But I agree that Jezz did go one step too far here. By KISS rule Kaio should be the one who needs the win more as Taikai should already be fixed as the scratcher by now and Kaio is far from safe to get the needed two wins - and the sooner Kaio is kachi-koshi he can scratch the backs of the other ozeki.

[Jakusotsu 5,876]

...and that's exactly why I picked Kaio today.

[Bilu 0]

My take:

The OSBC theory can't predict who will win today.

Harumik didn't give us any reason to think he's a member (that's why he's my favorite Ozeki).

As for Kaio and Taikai - it's hard to tell who needs the win more - they might not know it themselves...

The theory is at its best when one of the opponents has nothing to gain (or close to nothing) and the other has a lot.

Open game today..

[Jakusotsu 5,876]

The theory is at its best when one of the opponents has nothing to gain (or close to nothing) and the other has a lot.

When you assume the yokozuna won't play any part of the kabuki this basho, Chiyotaikai has nothing to gain since his MK is already in the books. On the other hand, if the powers that be are keen on another yusho-ketteisen... (Holiday feeling...)

[Bilu 0]

The theory is at its best when one of the opponents has nothing to gain (or close to nothing) and the other has a lot.

When you assume the yokozuna won't play any part of the kabuki this basho, Chiyotaikai has nothing to gain since his MK is already in the books. On the other hand, if the powers that be are keen on another yusho-ketteisen... (Holiday feeling...)

Don't agree.

First, he still has a chance - though it's a slim one.

Second, he might want to avoid a total disgrace. Getting 2-9 and quitting (after declaring repeatedly he won't) is not like getting a 6-9.

Edited March 23, 2009 by Bilu

[Bilu 0]

Taikai - Kaio:

This one looked fair-and-square to me.

As the OBSC predicts... (Holiday feeling...)

Edited March 23, 2009 by Bilu

[Asashosakari 19,028]

When you assume the yokozuna won't play any part of the kabuki this basho, Chiyotaikai has nothing to gain since his MK is already in the books. On the other hand, if the powers that be are keen on another yusho-ketteisen... (Sigh...)

I'd say a 14-0 winner-takes-all bout holds more cachet than a 14-1 yusho playoff.

[Jejima 1,354]

I hold up my hands! I got both predictions wrong....

But sadly this does not disprove the OBSC theory.

Kaio vs Chiyotaikai

This was very close to call for the theory, as 'Taikai was all but MK before the bout started. Arguments have been given above as to why he would be the one to lose - and so maybe it did actually follow the OSBC theory after all.

Harumafuji vs Kotooshu

Again too close to call for the theory - and we don't know yet if Harry is a member of the club. Having watched the bout, it looked very legit to me.

Edit: Replaced a Maegashira rikishi with an Ozeki (Sigh...)

Edited March 23, 2009 by Jejima

[Bilu 0]

Harumafuji vs Kokkai

Osh...

You just over-streched the theory, that's all. It doen't say anything about it...

[Sokkenaiyama 80]

Jezz, if you insist on splitting the yaocho hairs, come on over to the Sumotalk chat. Your theories above are outlandish, I could have told you Kaio would win his match vs. Chiyotaikai, and I see Doitsuyama explained why.

Edit: I wouldn't be surprised to see Taikai go kyujo tomorrow rather than face Hak.

Edited March 23, 2009 by Sokkenaiyama

[Sashohitowa 6]

I personally have few about the whole idea of this topic. And this leaves me more puzzled, instead of "convinced" or "dissuaded".

First, the whole idea for the existence of the club is based on the presumption that the current Ozeki group are too weak to earn a honest kachi-koshi by themselves, so therefore need favors from each other. This requires a very unique situation, where

a) all the ozeki (or at least enough of them) are such "weak ones"

b) none of them is significantly stronger than the others (then he wouldn't be eager to give away losses, since he won't need the favor back), and none of them will be significantly weaker than the others (then he won't be in position to return the favors)

So from this point of view I can agree that Kaio and Chiyotaikai have similar performance recently, but why you (or the devil you advocate of) are so eager to put the Kotos in that club? Kotomitsuki is in his first MK for years, and Kotooshu had just two as Ozeki (the second one a year ago).

Second, the backscratching-prediction statements (at least the way I read them) sound quite vague. All the deep digging into the the "theory" results in predictions that both the involved Ozeki might need the win. Which will not prove the theory right or wrong, but will leave the space open for more and more discussions, and this will actually make the theory viable.

So I'd like kindly to ask you, conspiracy theorists and their advocates - can you pleas be more specific in your OBSC-driven predictions? Say - who (according to the theory) will win against who - so that then we can judge and make conclusions. Otherwise I see no value of this thread.

Thanks.