Toukeigakusha

Update at the end of 2010: (score and position differences relative to the end of 2009; Hakuho's 15 wins in Kyushu include the kettei-sen; I assigned Harumafuji his year's average of 2388 points for Kyushu to make up for his fusen, otherwise he would have dropped to position 10 with a score of 1844 points; "G"=gino-sho, "S"=shukun-sho, "K"=kanto-sho, "#"=gino-sho plus kanto-sho) Pos. Score (Diff) Wins Sekitori Hatsu*5 Haru*6 Natsu*7 Nagoya*8 Aki*9 Kyushu*10 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _1.( 1) 4480 (+ 64) 87 Hakuho 3399/12 4655/15 4509/15 4495/15 4725/15 4662/15 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _2.( 5) 2904 (+ 648) 64 Baruto 3591/12# 4112/14G 2575/10 1878/ 8 2565/ 9 3193/11 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _3.( 4) 2377 (- 301) 56 Kotooshu 2468/ 9 2205/10 2378/ 9 2722/10 2826/10 1755/ 8 _4.( 9) 2375 (+ 441) 52 Kaio 2445/ 9 2026/ 8 2330/ 9 1654/ 6 2153/ 8 3356/12 _5.( 3) 2375 (- 652) 47 Harumafuji 2610/10 2181/10 2324/ 9 2818/10 2005/ 8 [2388*] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _6.( 8) 2245 (+ 276) 50 Kisenosato 2370/ 9 2374/ 9 2343/ 8 1571/ 7 1806/ 7 2972/10S _7.(10) 2207 (+ 355) 48 Kotoshogiku 1405/ 6 2654/10 2506/ 9 1466/ 5 2887/ 9 2112/ 9 _8.(18) 2156 (+ 948) 53 Tochiozan 832/ 8 2464/11 1739/ 7 2555/ 9 3143/11G 1716/ 7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _9.(12) 1962 (+ 529) 46 Aminishiki 1963/11G 2436/ 8 1060/ 5 1489/ 6 2446/ 8 2250/ 8 10.( 6) 1950 (- 161) 46 Kakuryu 1654/ 7 1005/ 6 1844/ 6 2493/11 2643/ 9 1683/ 7 11.(14) 1766 (+ 411) 43 Tochinoshin 616/ 5 1751/ 9 2716/ 8K 1596/ 6 2405/ 9 1247/ 6 12.(26) 1608 (+ 610) 45 Aran 1243/10 175/ 1 2016/12K 3040/11K 1980/ 7 884/ 4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13.(52) 1379 (+1360) 43 Hakuba 1123/ 9 915/ 8 2459/10 1132/ 4 1939/ 8 724/ 4 14.(20) 1379 (+ 229) 43 Homasho 1061/ 9 1574/ 9 0/ 0 1480/11K 1402/ 7 2285/ 7 15.(16) 1345 (+ 45) 47 Toyonoshima 2489/ 8 1026/ 6 1096/ 5 0/ 0 98/14 3337/14# 16.(28) 1345 (+ 454) 44 Asasekiryu 843/ 6 1747/10 2330/ 9 659/ 4 1560/ 9 1020/ 6 17.(13) 1283 (- 123) 40 Kyokutenho 1296/ 8 345/ 3 1601/ 9 1588/ 7 638/ 4 1951/ 9 18.(53) 1218 (+1211) 46 Kitataiki 1036/ 9 1765/10 1492/ 7 943/ 6 1307/ 9 928/ 5 19.(19) 1155 (- 50) 44 Yoshikaze 1026/ 6 548/ 5 1185/ 9 622/ 5 1681/11K 1514/ 8 20.(--) 1145 ( new ) 48 Tokusegawa 72/ 9 948/ 8 1198/ 9 1155/ 8 1161/ 6 1741/ 8 21.(17) 1138 (- 73) 41 Tokitenku 844/ 5 1495/10 1440/ 8 1902/ 8 447/ 2 869/ 8 22.(15) 1062 (- 278) 43 Takekaze 1482/ 6 673/ 5 1084/ 8 610/ 6 1855/12K 720/ 6 23.(35) 1050 (+ 329) 42 Tamawashi 1472/ 8 1061/ 5 234/ 3 812/ 7 1149/10 1503/ 9 24.(34) 980 (+ 235) 40 Wakanosato 1262/ 9 771/ 6 672/ 6 1666/ 9 810/ 5 786/ 5 25.(30) 963 (+ 171) 38 Kokkai 792/ 5 1151/10 747/ 3 894/ 8 1565/ 8 599/ 4 26.(40) 937 (+ 423) 43 Mokonami 587/ 6 1104/ 9 1172/ 8 1063/ 8 814/ 5 859/ 7 27.(39) 908 (+ 393) 43 Tosayutaka 1194/10 648/ 3 998/ 7 839/ 8 795/ 6 1014/ 9 28.(11) 904 (- 839) 42 Goeido 1845/ 7 750/ 2 1106/ 9 0/ 0 96/12 1837/12 29.(33) 846 (+ 97) 43 Shimotori 797/ 8 460/ 5 1029/10 856/ 6 956/ 8 869/ 6 30.(24) 813 (- 247) 43 Takamisakari 758/ 7 813/ 7 832/ 8 891/ 9 555/ 4 995/ 8 31.(21) 780 (- 354) 41 Miyabiyama 916/ 5 1593/10 1216/ 5 0/ 0 72/12 1178/ 9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 32.( 7) 688 (-1290) 19 Kotomitsuki 320/ 1 2078/ 9 2416/ 9 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 33.(45) 664 (+ 415) 46 Kimurayama 21/ 7 22/11 720/ 7 699/ 8 1198/ 8 825/ 5 34.(--) 587 ( new ) 42 Gagamaru 0/ 0 40/ 8 70/10 597/ 5 1135/10 1069/ 9 35.(25) 550 (- 480) 26 Kakizoe 1280/ 6 1027/ 7 1059/ 7 418/ 3 157/ 3 0/ 0 36.(36) 435 (- 197) 32 Tochinonada 410/ 5 60/10 285/ 3 0/ 0 933/ 8 678/ 6 37.( 2) 433 (-2887) 13 Asashoryu 3899/13 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 38.(32) 422 (- 363) 23 Bushuyama 306/ 2 229/ 4 0/ 0 757/ 8 732/ 6 346/ 3 39.(--) 413 ( new ) 30 Sokokurai 0/ 0 0/ 0 8/ 8 32/ 8 1117/ 8 822/ 6 40.(49) 403 (+ 334) 32 Koryu 329/ 4 0/ 0 430/ 5 18/ 9 402/ 6 973/ 8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 41.(37) 399 (- 232) 42 Toyohibiki 1629/12K 468/ 4 959/ 8 0/ 0 21/ 7 11/11 Baruto went way beyond compensating for Chiyotaikai & Kotomitsuki, he replaced Harumafuji as the yokozuna's only serious yusho contender. But the biggest surprise amongst the ozeki may actually be Kaio, scoring even higher than kettei-sen participant Toyonoshima in Kyushu. Amongst the lower sanyaku, Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku appear to be more stable now with scores similar to those of the ozeki and none significantly below 1500 points; Tochiozan made the biggest leap forward here. Tochinoshin and Aran have become sanyaku candidates but are lacking consistency for the time being. Hakuba and Kitataiki have made stunning improvements within the "makuuchi regulars"; Takamisakari shows us how to stay in the top division with a minimum score. Amongst the newcomers, Tokusegawa appears to have established himself as makuuchi regular now; it remains to be seen whether he can repeat his Kyusho result though. While Wakanosato had no problems staying up there in 2010 a handful of sekitori have now fallen out of the 40 due to dropping to juryo: Tamanoshima, Shotenro, and Hokutoriki. The "gamblers" have all fallen in this ranking (having missed two makuuchi basho) but Toyonoshima's Kyusho score shows what this guy is capable of. Goeido didn't have a single 2000 points score this year and would have dropped out of the "meat grinder crowd" anyway. Toyohibiki, kanto-sho winner in hatsu, ended up in position 41 for the year 2010. Tochinoshin's kanto-sho in natsu based on a mere 8 wins for 2716 points included wins over four ozeki plus one sekiwake; Homasho's 'cheap' kanto-sho in Nagoya based on 11 wins for 1480 points included only one win over an opponent higher than maegashira 9.

Data update after Hatsu 2010 (top 40 positions now for Wakanosato's sake...): Pos. Score Wins Rank Sekitori Haru[5] Natsu[6] Nagoya[7] Aki[8] Kyushu[9] Hatsu[10] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _1.( 1) 4207 (-209) 84 Y1-E Hakuho 4565/15 4199/14 4115/14 4677/14 4613/15 3358/12 _2.( 2) 3326 (+ 6) 71 Y1-W Asashoryu 2733/11 3195/12 2456/10 4479/14 2804/11 3858/13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _3.( 3) 2941 (- 86) 61 O1-W Harumafuji 2745/10 4912/14 2372/ 9 2347/ 9 3120/ 9 2569/10 _4.( 4) 2615 (- 63) 60 O1-E Kotooshu 2878/10 2234/ 9 3470/13 1963/ 9 2803/10 2468/ 9 _5.( 5) 2553 (+297) 56 S1-E Baruto 1624/ 8 900/ 4 2450/11 3188/12[K] 2580/ 9 3550/12[S] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _6.( 6) 2099 (- 12) 48 K1-W Kakuryu 2672/10[G] 2552/ 9[G] 896/ 5 3286/11[G] 1855/ 7 1654/ 6 _7.( 9) 2050 (+116) 49 O2-W Kaio 1775/ 8 1905/ 8 1921/ 8 1780/ 8 2246/ 8 2404/ 9 _8.( 8) 2016 (+ 47) 49 M03-W Kisenosato 1160/ 5 2525/13[K] 2827/ 9 1840/ 7 1332/ 6 2329/ 9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _9.(10) 1800 (- 52) 46 K1-E Kotoshogiku 1495/ 6 1866/10 1940/ 8 1518/ 6 2507/10 1405/ 6 10.( 7) 1748 (-230) 46 O2-E Kotomitsuki 2168/ 8 1502/ 8 3390/12 1710/ 9 2020/ 8 320/ 1 11.(11) 1702 (- 41) 44 M02-E Goeido 2350/ 9 1564/ 6 1300/ 5 1701/10 1632/ 7 1804/ 7 12.(16) 1652 (+352) 47 M01-E Toyonoshima 1405/ 8 610/ 5 862/ 8 1314/ 7 2468/11[G] 2489/ 8 13.(12) 1602 (+169) 48 M06-W Aminishiki 1549/ 9 1299/ 5 2572/11[G] 1077/ 7 1188/ 5 1922/11[G] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14.(15) 1381 (+ 41) 41 M04-W Takekaze 1530/ 8 556/ 4 1183/ 8 1692/ 9 1614/ 6 1482/ 6 15.(13) 1327 (- 79) 41 M05-W Kyokutenho 1290/ 6 1784/ 8 1384/ 6 918/ 5 1399/ 8 1296/ 8 16.(14) 1236 (-119) 45 M01-W Tochinoshin 734/ 6 1096/ 9 1545/ 9 877/ 4 2377/12[K] 616/ 5 17.(19) 1173 (- 32) 42 M05-E Yoshikaze 1068/ 7 740/ 4 824/ 6 1311/ 9 1831/10 1026/ 6 18.(17) 1155 (- 56) 39 M08-E Tokitenku 1316/ 5 1171/ 7 1024/ 9 1548/ 8 1151/ 5 844/ 5 19.(18) 1115 (- 93) 40 M10-E Tochiozan 2246/ 8 1413/ 6 335/ 2 1572/11 812/ 5 822/ 8 20.(25) 1097 (+ 67) 44 M04-E Kakizoe 1043/ 7 789/ 8 840/ 6 1005/ 9 1412/ 8 1280/ 6 21.(20) 1094 (- 56) 44 M12-E Homasho 1995/11[K] 120/ 1 1365/10 1297/ 7 900/ 6 1051/ 9 22.(26) 1087 (+ 89) 46 M10-W Aran 1132/10 1461/ 8 860/ 4 1126/ 7 805/ 7 1222/10 23.(21) 1066 (- 68) 42 M02-W Miyabiyama 772/ 4 1039/ 9 1277/ 8 675/ 4 1597/12[K] 916/ 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24.(24) 997 (- 63) 42 M11-E Takamisakari 1122/ 6 1115/ 9 1275/ 6 889/ 6 1008/ 8 747/ 7 25.(22) 981 (- 94) 38 M13-E Tamanoshima 1374/ 8 812/ 5 1720/ 9 1102/ 5 358/ 4 833/ 7 26.(27) 920 (- 5) 41 M14-E Iwakiyama 1183/ 8 1066/ 9 989/ 5 1157/ 8 380/ 2 948/ 9 27.(35) 877 (+156) 49 M07-E Tamawashi 1067/ 9 965/ 6 374/ 5 88/11 1144/10 1472/ 8 28.(28) 866 (- 25) 43 M08-W Asasekiryu 1155/ 9 748/ 5 908/ 9 776/ 6 858/ 8 843/ 6 29.(37) 865 (+234) 49 M16-W Toyohibiki 36/12 1442/11 711/ 3 751/ 6 337/ 5 1608/12[K] 30.(29) 859 (- 30) 40 M09-W Shotenro 676/ 7 974/ 8 1569/11[K] 880/ 2 820/ 9 402/ 3 31.(34) 847 (+102) 32 M07-W Wakanosato 1309/ 6 0/ 0 0/ 0 1276/10 969/ 7 1262/ 9 32.(33) 825 (+ 76) 43 M13-W Shimotori 903/ 8 549/ 6 1156/ 9 545/ 4 1001/ 8 786/ 8 33.(30) 761 (- 31) 39 M09-E Kokkai 774/ 5 867/ 8 713/ 5 744/ 8 812/ 8 694/ 5 34.(23) 738 (-336) 22 S1-W Chiyotaikai 288/ 2 1627/ 8 2164/ 8 326/ 2 474/ 2 0/ 0 35.(32) 737 (- 48) 40 M06-E Bushuyama 64/ 8 1072/ 9 546/ 5 1209/10 1097/ 6 306/ 2 36.(39) 716 (+201) 49 M12-W Tosayutaka 48/ 8 72/ 9 771/ 8 810/ 6 882/ 8 1173/10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 37.(31) 600 (-189) 39 M03-E Hokutoriki 290/ 2 387/ 4 22/11 1219/11 1378/ 8 90/ 3 38.(40) 585 (+ 71) 37 M11-W Mokonami 0/ 0 77/11 742/ 6 771/ 5 971/ 9 577/ 6 39.(36) 525 (-107) 35 M15-W Tochinonada 1555/ 8 722/ 5 517/ 6 436/ 4 48/ 8 400/ 4 40.(38) 445 (-145) 35 J03-E Futeno 1021/ 7 860/ 6 670/ 6 572/ 5 35/ 7 16/ 4 Repeating his Hatsu yusho from 2009 (the first yusho below 4000 points since his 13 wins in Haru 2008), Asashoryu could keep his level; Sumo lost a great champion now. Hakuho had his first performance below 4000 points in 10 basho (Natsu 2008). As for the "olde ozeki" group, Chiyotaikai had three 2200+ scores in four subsequent basho back in mid-2008 but never managed to repeat this performance; now that he's gone it may be time to worry about Kotomitsuki who had only one 2200+ score (12 wins for 3390 points at Nagoya 2009) in his last 8 basho (after four subsequent 2200+ scores in the same four basho 2008 as Chiyotaikai). Kaio (who had four consecutive basho in mid-2008 with an average of 2306 points before his injury) improved his scores recently, scoring big for defeating Harumafuji O1-W/10=470 and Hakuho Y1-E/12=600 this time. With a 2942 points average of his recent 4 basho, Baruto plays in a different league than the lower sanyaku ranks. This time he scored a career high so far (and higher than even Hakuho whom he defeated for the first time) but 9318 points in three basho (including a 5:0 + 2:2 + 3:0 = 10:2 score against ozeki opponents) didn't earn him the ozeki promotion yet, despite clearly being the third best during the last six months (Harumafuji 8036, Kotooshu 7234, Kakuryu 6795, Kaio 6430, Toyonoshima 6271; Ama's Ozeki run in 2008 with 35 wins had been worth 10543 points while Kakuryu's three Gino-Sho from 2009 would add up to a mere 8510 points). Note how Baruto's 9 wins for 2580 points in Aki 2009 (that were debated as being the potential reason for his non-promotion) scored higher than every single one of Kaio's twelve kachi-koshi results since the beginning of 2008 (maximum: 9 wins for 2512 points in Aki 2008 including a win over Kotomitsuki O1-E/11=528), not to mention Chiyotaikai's seven kachi-koshi results during this time (maximum: 8 wins for 2476 points in Haru 2008 including a win over Hakuho Y1-E/12=600). Kisenosato didn't beat an ozeki this time but defeated Baruto S1-E/12=528, Aminishiki M06-W/11=319 and Toyonoshima M01-E/8=320. Toyonoshima himself scored even higher than last time (when he won the gino-sho) due to his quality wins over Kaio O2-W/9=405, Harumafuji O1-W/10=470, and Baruto S1-E/12=528, showing good sekiwake potential for two consecutive basho. The group of regular 2000+ points scorers has shrunk significantly, with Goeido missing this score for 5 basho in a row (after three out of four 2000+ basho in late 2008/early 2009; his kinboshi win over Asashoryu Y1-W/13=637 makes up for 35% of his score this time), and both Kotoshogiku and Aminishiki getting that much only once in 7 basho (after three resp. four 2000+ scores in 2008) - and all of this despite all "three old ozekis" (including Chiyotaikai) being less competitive these days than they were in 2008. Aminishiki's gino-sho from M06-W was rather light on the opponents' side with wins over Bushuyama M06-E/2, Tokitenku M08-E/5, Kokkai M09-E/5, Asasekiryu M08-W/6, and Kakuryu K1-W/6 as the only sanyaku rikishi amongst these (had he defeated Baruto on day 13 when he had the chance to it would have been a different story, then earning him some 2500-ish score like Harumafuji or Kotooshu). So Toyohibiki's kanto-sho run with 1608 points from the lowest maegashira position M16-W (from where you don't get valuable opponents that often) actually was more impressive, winning his last six bouts and defeating genki opponents such as Shimotori M13-W/8, Tamawashi M07-E/8, Sagatsukasa J01-W/9, Kitataiki M15-E/9, Homasho M12-E/9, Wakanosato M07-W/9, and Aran M10-W/10; the only other 1500+ points result from any two-digits maegashira rank in the last two years had been Tochiozan M12-E/11 with 1572 points in Aki 2009, from a rank that was 8 positions higher. Wakanosato still has two 0 points basho in his score, keeping him out of the top 30 range... but with a potential of 1200 points per basho he might be at a top 20 rank again in mid-2010 (where the real banzuke has him anyway). Kokkai's only 1000+ score in the last 10 basho was Kyushu 2008 but he managed to stay in makuuchi with a minimum of effort; Asasekiryu (who had three 1900+ basho back in early 2008) shows a similar tendency these days.

Except for his Natsu 2009 failure, Baruto had 9 kachi-koshi in a row since mid-2008 (10-8-9-9-8-4-11-12-9-12), all but one in sanyaku; with Asashoryu out of the way ozeki runs will become easier so the Estonian crane should become ozeki at least somewhere in 2010. But other than that, I don't see any new ozeki soon; even with both Kotomitsuki and Kaio gone the sanyaku guys would get no more than 4 additional wins during an ozeki run (it's not like a young and healthy M07 such as Tochinoshin or Aran would be that much easier to beat than an ageing ozeki) meaning that they should have had 29-30 already to make a credible claim. Kisenosato had 28 in early 2008 starting from M01 which was his best shot so far, then 29 in mid-2009 but starting with 13 from M04; Kakuryu had 28 in early 2009 but none of these as sekiwake; Toyonoshima had 27 in 2008 including a make-koshi; Goeido had 25 in 2009 including a make-koshi; Kotoshogiku had 25 in early 2008 and 24 in late 2009. These guys may well outbalance each other for quite a while. As for the next yokozuna, I guess we'll also have to wait quite a while. I don't see the one who would even claim two yusho back-to-back if Hakuho were injured. Baruto isn't consistent enough for this and still in permanent danger of injuries. Kotooshu is a yusho candidate when in perfect shape but not twice in a row. Harumafuji might improve enough to become a permanent yusho candidate, having now gotten more experience as ozeki - he would be my first choice if the next yokozuna were to be found before 2012 considering how much Aminishiki's scores improved after gaining some more weight. But the next yokozuna might not even be in makuuchi yet. Hakuho set a 86:4 record in 2009 and still won only three basho during that year; maybe this was his peak already? He's young enough for some more years of domination but we'll have to wait for the effect of Asashoryu's intai on his performance; with this rivalry gone it may have a negative effect on his performance. If so, I'd expect a larger variety of yusho winners - whenever he ends up with 12:3 the yusho is up for grabs for any of the gaijin ozeki who's on a roll these two weeks. If we neglect Asashoryu's bouts in Hatsu 2010 then Baruto would already have taken the yusho there, and that was with Hakuho being in the race. I can even imagine Kisenosato win a 12:3 yusho via kettei-sen when in perfect shape (but the probability of a Japanese yusho winner in 2010/11 is very small), and I would love to see Toyonoshima getting a double-digit score from sekiwake at least once.

Sekitori ordered by birthday: M1w Tochinoshin Georgia Kasugano 13.10.1987 191.5 153.7 M10e Tochiozan Kochi Kasugano 09.03.1987 189.5 147 J13e Gagamaru Georgia Kise 23.02.1987 185 182.9 J14e Myogiryu Hyogo Sakaigawa 22.10.1986 187 138 M3w Kisenosato Ibaraki Naruto 03.07.1986 188 171.2 M2e Goeido Osaka Sakaigawa 06.04.1986 182 148.5 K1w Kakuryu Mongolia Izutsu 10.08.1985 187 136.6 J2e Okinoumi Shimane Hakkaku 29.07.1985 190 134.5 Y1e Hakuho Mongolia Miyagino 11.03.1985 191.5 152.2 M12w Tosayutaka Kochi Tokitsukaze 10.03.1985 178.5 139.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------- (25 years) M16w Toyohibiki Yamaguchi Sakaigawa 16.11.1984 185 168 M7e Tamawashi Mongolia Kataonami 16.11.1984 190 155.4 S1e Baruto Estonia Onoe 05.11.1984 198 177.9 J10w Kiyoseumi Aichi Kise 16.08.1984 183 179.9 J6w Masatsukasa Aomori Irumagawa 07.06.1984 183 134 J9w Yamamotoyama Saitama Onoe 08.05.1984 190 251.5 O1w Harumafuji Mongolia Isegahama 14.04.1984 185 126 M11w Mokonami Mongolia Tatsunami 05.04.1984 186.5 146.9 J4e Wakakoyu Chiba Onomatsu 24.02.1984 179 161 M16e Koryu Mongolia Hanakago 04.02.1984 185.5 152 M10w Aran Russia Mihogaseki 31.01.1984 187 144 K1e Kotoshogiku Fukuoka Sadogatake 30.01.1984 180 162.8 J13w Sokokurai China Arashio 09.01.1984 185 125.1 J11e Hoshikaze Mongolia Oguruma 15.12.1983 180.4 119 J8w Kirinowaka Kumamoto Michinoku 18.09.1983 177 123 J1e Tokusegawa Mongolia Kiriyama 06.08.1983 190.2 148.2 M1e Toyonoshima Kochi Tokitsukaze 29.06.1983 170.5 143.2 M14w Hakuba Mongolia Michinoku 05.05.1983 186.5 119.8 J7w Chiyohakuho Kumamoto Kokonoe 21.04.1983 181.5 135 J12w Sakaizawa Saitama Onoe 11.04.1983 188 158.8 O1e Kotooshu Bulgaria Sadogatake 19.02.1983 203 154.9 J7e Tamaasuka Aichi Kataonami 26.01.1983 185 147.9 M15e Kitataiki Tokyo Kitanoumi 05.10.1982 185 142.4 M5e Yoshikaze Oita Oguruma 19.03.1982 178 134.8 M9w Shotenro Mongolia Musashigawa 31.01.1982 189 147 J1w Sagatsukasa Shizuoka Irumagawa 21.12.1981 166 125.3 M8w Asasekiryu Mongolia Takasago 07.08.1981 185 140.5 J9e Shirononami Kumamoto Onoe 16.07.1981 173.5 128.1 J3w Kimurayama Wakayama Kasugano 13.07.1981 182 164 M12e Homasho Yamaguchi Shikoroyama 16.04.1981 187 150.4 M9e Kokkai Georgia Oitekaze 10.03.1981 189.5 153.9 Y1w Asashoryu Mongolia Takasago 27.09.1980 184 148 J3e Futeno Kumamoto Dewanoumi 28.08.1980 180.5 157.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------- (30 years) M8e Tokitenku Mongolia Tokitsukaze 10.09.1979 186 142.8 M4w Takekaze Akita Oguruma 21.06.1979 171 142 M6w Aminishiki Aomori Isegahama 03.10.1978 185 143.6 M4e Kakizoe Oita Musashigawa 12.08.1978 177 137.8 M13w Shimotori Niigata Tokitsukaze 18.03.1978 188 142 J12e Kyokunankai Kagoshima Oshima 14.12.1977 180 133.6 M3e Hokutoriki Tochigi Hakkaku 31.10.1977 182 150.8 J5w Wakatenro Hokkaido Magaki 18.10.1977 184 160.4 M13e Tamanoshima Fukushima Kataonami 15.09.1977 187 164.1 J2w Kotokasuga Fukuoka Sadogatake 25.08.1977 182.5 150.2 M2w Miyabiyama Ibaraki Musashigawa 28.07.1977 187 183 J4w Kasugao Korea Kasugayama 01.07.1977 184 149.2 M7w Wakanosato Aomori Naruto 10.07.1976 185 163.3 J14w Jumonji Aomori Michinoku 09.06.1976 184 159.8 M6e Bushuyama Aomori Musashigawa 21.05.1976 191 170.3 M11e Takamisakari Aomori Azumazeki 12.05.1976 187.5 141.7 S1w Chiyotaikai Oita Kokonoe 29.04.1976 181 154.1 O2e Kotomitsuki Aichi Sadogatake 11.04.1976 182 156 M14e Iwakiyama Aomori Sakaigawa 02.03.1976 184 177 J6e Asofuji Aomori Isegahama 17.01.1976 180.2 126.1 J10e Kasuganishiki Chiba Kasugano 22.08.1975 188 151.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------- (35 years) M5w Kyokutenho Mongolia Oshima 13.09.1974 191.5 158.2 J8e Toyozakura Hiroshima Michinoku 12.03.1974 182.5 134.1 M15w Tochinonada Ishikawa Kasugano 26.02.1974 187.5 164.2 J11w Kaiho Aomori Hakkaku 17.04.1973 177 122 O2w Kaio Fukuoka Tomozuna 24.07.1972 184 171.3 J5e Tosanoumi Kochi Isenoumi 16.02.1972 186 154.2 Amongst the 13 youngest sekitori 10 are already in makuuchi (including Y1e Hakuho!), only 3 are still in juryo; it's not like there were a lot of young guns ready to replace the old horses. Japan's "hopeful talents" apparently still are Tochiozan, Kisenosato and Goeido, with the renamed Myogiryu having his first juryo appearance next month and Okinoumi perhaps getting his first shot at makuuchi now from J2e. Note how both Georgians are amongst the youngest three, and both youngest sekitori are from Kasugano beya.

Comparison 2009 to 2008 (top 30 positions): --------------------------------- _1.( 1) 4416 (+ 435) Hakuho --------------------------------- _2.(12) 3320 (+1594) Asashoryu _3.( 2) 3027 (- 71) Harumafuji _4.( 5) 2678 (+ 557) Kotooshu --------------------------------- _5.( 7) 2256 (+ 284) Baruto _6.(18) 2111 (+ 812) Kakuryu _7.( 3) 1978 (- 451) Kotomitsuki _8.( 4) 1969 (- 410) Kisenosato _9.(11) 1934 (+ 149) Kaio 10.( 9) 1852 (- 31) Kotoshogiku 11.(14) 1743 (+ 123) Goeido --------------------------------- 12.( 6) 1433 (- 615) Aminishiki 13.(13) 1406 (- 237) Kyokutenho 14.(33) 1355 (+ 753) Tochinoshin 15.(20) 1340 (+ 77) Takekaze 16.( 8) 1300 (- 658) Toyonoshima 17.(17) 1211 (- 115) Tokitenku 18.(26) 1208 (+ 229) Tochiozan 19.(30) 1205 (+ 407) Yoshikaze 20.(29) 1150 (+ 352) Homasho 21.(15) 1134 (- 444) Miyabiyama 22.(32) 1075 (+ 446) Tamanoshima 23.(10) 1074 (- 791) Chiyotaikai 24.(25) 1060 (+ 68) Takamisakari 25.(28) 1030 (+ 184) Kakizoe 26.(41) 998 (+ 814) Aran 27.(34) 925 (+ 396) Iwakiyama 28.(16) 891 (- 673) Asasekiryu 29.(--) 889 (+ 889) Shotenro 30.(24) 792 (- 330) Kokkai Not that great a year for the Japanese of whom only Kaio and Goeido slightly improved their score within the top 12 while Yoshikaze made the biggest step forward (Tamanoshima and Iwakiyama hat Juryo visits in 2008). With three of the "big four" amongst the biggest winners, ozeki runs may now be even more difficult. Hokutoriki, Futeno, Tochinonada (all with Juryo visits) and Dejima (retired) dropped out of the top 30 this year. Asashoryu attending 6 bashos again almost doubled his score while we saw huge improvements for Kakuryu, Tochinoshin, Aran and Shotenro and deep declines for Kotomitsuki, Kisenosato, Aminishiki, Toyonoshima, Chiyotaikai and Miyabiyama, with Asasekiryu being the only gaijin to go against the trend.

Data update after Kyushu 2009 (top 30 positions): Pos. Score Wins Rank Sekitori Hatsu[5] Haru[6] Natsu[7] Nagoya[8] Aki[9] Kyushu[10] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _1.( 1) 4416 (+ 72) 86 Y-W Hakuho 4158/14 4565/15 4199/14 4115/14 4677/14 4613/15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _2.( 3) 3320 (+137) 72 Y-E Asashoryu 4524/14 2733/11 3195/12 2456/10 4479/14 2804/11 _3.( 2) 3027 (- 90) 59 O2-E Harumafuji 2813/ 8 2745/10 4912/14 2372/ 9 2347/ 9 3120/ 9 _4.( 4) 2678 (+138) 61 O1-E Kotooshu 2831/10 2878/10 2234/ 9 3470/13 1963/ 9 2803/10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _5.( 6) 2256 (+ 76) 53 S1-E Baruto 2275/ 9 1624/ 8 900/ 4 2450/11 3188/12[K] 2580/ 9 _6.( 7) 2111 (+ 81) 51 S1-W Kakuryu 1164/ 9 2672/10[G] 2552/ 9[G] 896/ 5 3286/11[G] 1855/ 7 _7.( 8) 1978 (+ 32) 47 O1-W Kotomitsuki 556/ 2 2168/ 8 1502/ 8 3390/12 1710/ 9 2020/ 8 _8.( 5) 1969 (-305) 48 K1-E Kisenosato 2291/ 8 1160/ 5 2525/13[K] 2827/ 9 1840/ 7 1332/ 6 _9.(11) 1934 (+267) 48 O2-W Kaio 1841/ 8 1775/ 8 1905/ 8 1921/ 8 1780/ 8 2246/ 8 10.(10) 1852 (+147) 46 M03-E Kotoshogiku 1408/ 6 1495/ 6 1866/10 1940/ 8 1518/ 6 2507/10 11.( 9) 1743 (+ 8) 47 K1-W Goeido 2275/10[G] 2350/ 9 1564/ 6 1300/ 5 1701/10 1632/ 7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12.(12) 1433 (-192) 40 M01-W Aminishiki 790/ 3 1549/ 9 1299/ 5 2572/11[G] 1077/ 7 1188/ 5 13.(13) 1406 (- 86) 42 M06-W Kyokutenho 1944/ 9 1290/ 6 1784/ 8 1384/ 6 918/ 5 1399/ 8 14.(25) 1355 (+335) 48 M08-W Tochinoshin 977/ 8 734/ 6 1096/ 9 1545/ 9 877/ 4 2377/12[K] 15.(15) 1340 (+ 48) 42 M01-E Takekaze 1279/ 7 1530/ 8 556/ 4 1183/ 8 1692/ 9 1614/ 6 16.(20) 1300 (+184) 41 M05-E Toyonoshima 478/ 2 1405/ 8 610/ 5 862/ 8 1314/ 7 2468/11[G] 17.(17) 1211 (+ 0) 43 M02-W Tokitenku 957/ 9 1316/ 5 1171/ 7 1024/ 9 1548/ 8 1151/ 5 18.(16) 1208 (- 41) 42 M03-E Tochiozan 1212/10 2246/ 8 1413/ 6 335/ 2 1572/11 812/ 5 19.(23) 1205 (+163) 42 M09-E Yoshikaze 1190/ 6 1068/ 7 740/ 4 824/ 6 1311/ 9 1831/10 20.(19) 1150 (+ 0) 43 M07-W Homasho 1466/ 8[K] 1995/11[K] 120/ 1 1365/10 1297/ 7 900/ 6 21.(22) 1134 (+ 49) 43 M09-W Miyabiyama 1370/ 6 772/ 4 1039/ 9 1277/ 8 675/ 4 1597/12[K] 22.(18) 1075 (-119) 42 M07-E Tamanoshima 1437/11 1374/ 8 812/ 5 1720/ 9 1102/ 5 358/ 4 23.(14) 1074 (-253) 30 O3-E Chiyotaikai 2043/ 8 288/ 2 1627/ 8 2164/ 8 326/ 2 474/ 2 24.(21) 1060 (- 48) 41 M11-W Takamisakari 978/ 6 1122/ 6 1115/ 9 1275/ 6 889/ 6 1008/ 8 25.(27) 1030 (+114) 46 M05-W Kakizoe 940/ 8 1043/ 7 789/ 8 840/ 6 1005/ 9 1412/ 8 26.(24) 998 (- 27) 41 M08-E Aran 561/ 5 1132/10 1461/ 8 860/ 4 1126/ 7 805/ 7 27.(26) 925 (- 36) 40 M04-W Iwakiyama 991/ 8 1183/ 8 1066/ 9 989/ 5 1157/ 8 380/ 2 28.(28) 891 (- 7) 43 M10-E Asasekiryu 1024/ 6 1155/ 9 748/ 5 908/ 9 776/ 6 858/ 8 29.(30) 889 (+ 90) 48 M12-E Shotenro 88/11 676/ 7 974/ 8 1569/11[K] 880/ 2 820/ 9 30.(29) 792 (- 42) 39 M10-W Kokkai 880/ 5 774/ 5 867/ 8 713/ 5 744/ 8 812/ 8 With 6 non-zero bashos in a row, Asashoryu is back in 2nd place and Kaio back in the top 10. With four scores above 2800 and more than 10 wins per basho on average, Kotooshu delivered a decent ozeki performance; with a 2739 average of his last three results Baruto gives us hope to make the next step in the near future. Both Baruto and Kakuryu (the winner of this year with three Gino-Sho) had one basho below 1000 points and still scored higher than the three veteran ozekis, both surpassing Kisenosato as best non-ozekis. With weaker performances by Aminishiki (starting 4:3 and defeating three ozekis, only to go 0:7 from there and finally beating Iwakiyama/2 for a 5:10) and Kyokutenho (starting 2:4 from M06-W and getting to face weak opponents because of this, the kachi-koshi wasn't that difficult and thus not worth a lot) recently, the 300 points gap between position 11 and 12 looks significant. After a long slump, Toyonoshima showed his potential again with wins over Yoshikaze/10, Miyabiyama/12 and Kotooshu/10 (480 points); he's apparently sanyaku material unless injured. Tochinoshin began with three double-digit maegashita rankings in 2009 so his 48 wins were of relatively low quality but the trend clearly goes upwards and his Kyushu performance (from M08-W, defeating Kotoshogiku M02-E/10, Toyonoshima M05-E/11 and Miyabiyama M09-W/12, plus Kyokutenho/8, Asasekiryu/8, Tosayutaka/8, Takamisakari/8, Mokonami/9, Shotenro/9 and losing only to three kachi-koshi opponents) was indeed worth a sansho, more so than Miyabiyama's who faced a lot of weaker opponents in Kyushu (with 9 of his 12 wins over sekitori all of which were ranked below him with an average genkiness of 7 wins, plus defeating Tamanoshima/4, leaving only two valuable wins over Yoshikaze/10 and Kyokutenho/8). On the other hand, Kotoshogiku defeated Harumafuji/9 (day 1), Baruto/9 (day 2), Bushuyama/6, Iwakiyama/2, Aminishiki/5, Hokutoriki/8, Kisenosato/6, Goeido/7, Takekaze/6 and Kyokutenho/8, not earning him a sansho after his exceptional start but his best performance this year nonetheless. Kakizoe surprised with a kachi-koshi at M05-W (defeating Tochinoshin/12 in the process), getting his highest score of the year as well. Wakanosato still has two bashos with zero scores, keeping him out of the top 30 range just like Hokutoriki and Bushuyama with one Juryo basho each. Overall, the scores are increasing (+23 on average) probably due to a lower injuries rate in recent bashos. EDIT: Tagged all sansho winners, extended interpretation.

Was Asashoryu's gesture (which I believe to be a justified outbreak of relief for winning a yusho that few people considered possible for him, most notably after his suboptimal keiko) a worse thing than, say, giving an opponent an extra shove after the bout is effectively over, making a point of his feeling of superiority? Asashoryu makes the most of this "good yok/bad yok" rivalry between the two Mongolians. And both the sold-out seats and the number of kensho for the senshuraku bout show that he can't be all wrong with this, hinkaku and Japanese tradition notwithstanding. I do understand Ms. Uchidate's point of view but if she goes after Asashoryu mechanically she may happen to find herself alone in a corner every now and then.

In my ranking Kaio is 11th, suffering from his 1 win result at Kyushu a year ago (to be replaced next basho, with this in mind he is potentially 9th already). Lately, Kyokutenho's wins are over rather non-genki opponents (Aki: Chiyotaikai/2, Takekaze/9, Kotoshogiku/6, Tochinoshin/4, Miyabiyama/4 is an average of 5 wins only), thus he dropped down to rank 13 in my system. Compare this to Kotoshogiku who got some quality wins in Aki (Kaio/8, Kisenosato/7, Kakuryu/11), earning him rank 10 (despite losing the direct matchup against Kyokutenho). Miyabiyama's four wins in Aki were over Tokitenku/8, Chiyotaikai/2, Tamanoshima/5 and Tochinoshin/4, i. e. an average of a mere 4.75 wins amongst his opponents, thus in my ranking he dropped down as far as position 22 (after a 5.25 wins average of his opponents in Haru already, again including Chiyotaikai/2 back then - this might explain the big difference as I downgrade wins over a weak Chiyotaikai rather harshly).

With Asashoryu winning this yusho based on sheer will power (instead of perfect physical shape), these moments (and perhaps even the complaints about them afterwards) may actually be a significant source of energy for him. Would he have stood a chance against a Hakuho in 84-wins-a-year shape by merely executing technical sumo?

Data update after Aki 2009 (top 30 positions): Pos. Score Wins Rank Sekitori Kyushu[5] Hatsu[6] Haru[7] Natsu[8] Nagoya[9] Aki[10] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _1.(_1) 4344 84 Y-E Hakuho 4238/13 4158/14 4565/15 4199/14 4115/14 4677/14 _2.(_2) 3117 63 O2-E Harumafuji 4012/13 2813/ 8 2745/10 4912/14 2372/ 9 2347/ 9 _3.(_4) 3083 61 Y-W Asashoryu 0/ 0 4524/14 2733/11 3195/12 2456/10 4479/14 _4.(_3) 2540 59 O1-E Kotooshu 1683/ 8 2831/10 2878/10 2234/ 9 3470/13 1963/ 9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _5.(_5) 2274 53 S1-E Kisenosato 3283/11 2291/ 8 1160/ 5 2525/13 2827/ 9 1840/ 7 _6.(_7) 2180 53 K1-E Baruto 2389/ 9 2275/ 9 1624/ 8 900/ 4 2450/11 3188/12 _7.(13) 2030 49 M03-W Kakuryu 864/ 5 1164/ 9 2672/10 2552/ 9 896/ 5 3286/11 _8.(_6) 1946 48 O1-W Kotomitsuki 1890/ 9 556/ 2 2168/ 8 1502/ 8 3390/12 1710/ 9 _9.(_8) 1735 45 M05-E Goeido 1350/ 5 2275/10 2350/ 9 1564/ 6 1300/ 5 1701/10 10.(10) 1705 45 S1-W Kotoshogiku 2048/ 9 1408/ 6 1495/ 6 1866/10 1940/ 8 1518/ 6 11.(11) 1663 41 O2-W Kaio 210/ 1 1841/ 8 1775/ 8 1905/ 8 1921/ 8 1780/ 8 12.(_9) 1625 43 K1-W Aminishiki 2647/ 8 790/ 3 1549/ 9 1299/ 5 2572/11 1077/ 7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13.(14) 1492 44 M02-W Kyokutenho 2109/10 1944/ 9 1290/ 6 1784/ 8 1384/ 6 918/ 5 14.(12) 1327 36 O3-E Chiyotaikai 1937/ 8 2043/ 8 288/ 2 1627/ 8 2164/ 8 326/ 2 15.(16) 1292 45 M05-W Takekaze 1545/ 9 1279/ 7 1530/ 8 556/ 4 1183/ 8 1692/ 9 16.(18) 1249 43 M12-E Tochiozan 637/ 6 1212/10 2246/ 8 1413/ 6 335/ 2 1572/11 17.(21) 1211 45 M04-W Tokitenku 1093/ 7 957/ 9 1316/ 5 1171/ 7 1024/ 9 1548/ 8 18.(17) 1196 44 M03-E Tamanoshima 516/ 6 1437/11 1374/ 8 812/ 5 1720/ 9 1102/ 5 19.(24) 1150 43 M06-W Homasho 554/ 6 1466/ 8 1995/11 120/ 1 1365/10 1297/ 7 20.(19) 1116 39 M04-E Toyonoshima 2348/ 9 478/ 2 1405/ 8 610/ 5 862/ 8 1314/ 7 21.(20) 1108 43 M07-W Takamisakari 1369/10 978/ 6 1122/ 6 1115/ 9 1275/ 6 889/ 6 22.(15) 1085 41 M01-W Miyabiyama 1728/10 1370/ 6 772/ 4 1039/ 9 1277/ 8 675/ 4 23.(25) 1042 43 M15-E Yoshikaze 1169/11 1190/ 6 1068/ 7 740/ 4 824/ 6 1311/ 9 24.(29) 1025 42 M07-E Aran 830/ 8 561/ 5 1132/10 1461/ 8 860/ 4 1126/ 7 25.(22) 1020 39 M01-E Tochinoshin 687/ 3 977/ 8 734/ 6 1096/ 9 1545/ 9 877/ 4 26.(32) 961 38 M08-E Iwakiyama 0/ 0 991/ 8 1183/ 8 1066/ 9 989/ 5 1157/ 8 27.(26) 916 43 M11-E Kakizoe 873/ 5 940/ 8 1043/ 7 789/ 8 840/ 6 1005/ 9 28.(23) 898 40 M06-E Asasekiryu 853/ 5 1024/ 6 1155/ 9 748/ 5 908/ 9 776/ 6 29.(30) 834 40 M14-E Kokkai 1211/ 9 880/ 5 774/ 5 867/ 8 713/ 5 744/ 8 30.(35) 799 39 M02-E Shotenro 0/ 0 88/11 676/ 7 974/ 8 1569/11 880/ 2 (Score = weighted average with the weights shown next to the basho names) Asashoryu is back: The next basho will most likely see him in second place again (replacing the 0 points Kyusho result). His Aki result (despite including the playoff win) suffers from his almost worthless wins over Chiyotaikai/2=88 and Shotenro/2=74 whereas Hakuho lost against Shotenro, avoided Chiyotaikai and had the torikumi luck to face (and beat) a very genki Kakuryu/11=374 instead - who delivered his best result so far and actually finished "virtual third" this basho: Baruto's 12 wins include lots of valuable ozekis but also Chiyotaikai and Shotenro whereas Kakuryu had no opponent with fewer than 5 wins and scored big for wins over Baruto/12=492, Kotooshu/9=432, Kaio/8=360 and Goeido/10=310. Chiyotaikai drops his second basho this year; even Kaio had to rely on a senshuraku win over Kotomitsuki (who would tie Kakuryu's overall score had he won this last fight) for avoiding kadoban and barely staying above Goeido and Kotoshogiku (if we already ignore Kaio's weak Kyushu score). Of the sanyaku candidates, Baruto appears to be able to perform at 2000+ level almost consistently but Kakuryu (with three 2500+ scores in the last four basho, and three gino-sho) might actually be the winner of 2009 in this area. Kisenosato still has the highest non-ozeki average but Kakuryu will already surpass him in the next basho if both make the same score there (replacing Kise's best and Kakuryu's weakest score). Note how few sekitori got 2000 points this time (just one ozeki amongst them, and Kisenosato with makekoshi still earning the seventh highest score), making Baruto's and Kakuryu's 3000+ performances even more outstanding. Kyoukutenho appears to lose contact to the sanyaku candidate group; former sanyaku Tokitenku delivered his best performance for a long time. Shotenro's result of 880 points (from a disastrous looking 2:13) was actually to be expected score-wise (just not the kinboshi that was worth 700 points alone); Iwakiyama reliably delivers 1000 points every basho whereas Kokkai has dropped down to the 800-ish level, meaning permanent danger of demotion to Juryo. Wakanosato (with two zero-score bashos in a row) is currently ranked 31th in my list; his average of the other four bashos would be 1255, meaning a potential rank 16. The same goes for Hokutoriki (currently ranked 35th) with an average of 1198 from his three genki makuuchi bashos amongst the last six ones, and even Bushuyama (34th) has three scores > 1000 amongst his last six bashos.

I think Peterao means: "Does the query include wins over Yokozunae"? (The problem being that "all 5" would then be impossible to achieve these days, with 5+2=7 "ozeki+" sekitori.)

IMHO incremental strength correction during a basho is much less precise than using the total number of wins in the current basho as genkiness for the whole basho (thus losing the ability to use this mechanism for predicting bouts, which an ELO-based approach would handle better anyway): Overpromotions don't happen incrementally, and even a large part of injuries that influence genkiness have been caused before the basho already. That's somehow the line of thought that led me to use linear values for positions instead of banzuke ranks, and then introduce the genkiness part to reward a win over Hakuho/14 significantly higher than a win over Chiyotaikai/8.

We're doing very similar things after all, and I'm aware that Aminishiki profits from my not punishing losses against weaker opponents, so he's the most likely candidate for being ranked higher in my model than in yours. If anything, this comparison shows how the combination of linear values for banzuke positions plus genkiness gets quite close to Abe's valuation of banzuke ranks... His line in my table is:Pos. Score Wins Rank Sekitori Aki[5] Kyushu[6] Hatsu[7] Haru[8] Natsu[9] Nagoya[10] 33. 720 28 J06-W Wakanosato 1282/9 1537/6 899/7 1309/6 0/0 0/0 Given his potential of making four-digit scores he would be a candidate for rank 15-20 if he's in full health. I have everyone in my table who had at least one basho with a top 50 banzuke position within my time frame. I map the 50 highest banzuke positions to integers, which covers ranks down to J04-W (the likely limit for opponents of Makuuchi sekitori), thus Wakanosato can't make a score in Nagoya from J06-W (as I can't model his opponents with "negative positions" - see above in this thread how top Juryo gets a non-zero score) and didn't win a bout in Natsu. These two bashos get the highest weights of 9 and 10, thus Wakanosato is currently being punished for not making a single score point in the two most significant bashos (with a combined weight of 42.2%), which kicked him out of the top 30 temporarily. EDIT: Then again, giving all 6 bashos equal weights would still leave Wakanosato on position 31; skipping two bashos and defeating very un-genki opponents in Hatsu (none of the 7 opponents he defeated ended up better than 6:9, and the only one of them ranked higher than Wakanosato himself was Kotomitsuki who went kyuyo with 2 wins) is just too much for a better position in my list. Asashoryu was punished similarly in my table four bashos ago, see above in this thread; the punishment for being kyuyo is being diminished with each following basho, much like a fading memory. The factor of 2 between the most recent and the oldest basho is, again, arbitrarily - I didn't want to handle almost meaningless data from the oldest basho (therefore no 1 to 6) but considered the most recent basho somehow more significant than older data (therefore no equal weights of all 6 bashos), and 5 to 10 looked like a natural choice.

Data update after Nagoya 2009 (top 30 positions): Pos.Score Wins Rank Sekitori Aki[5] Kyushu[6] Hatsu[7] Haru[8] Natsu[9] Nagoya[10] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _1. 4267 84 Y-E Hakuho 4401/14 4238/13 4158/14 4565/15 4199/14 4115/14 _2. 3366 66 O1-E Harumafuji 3560/12 4012/13 2813/ 8 2745/10 4912/14 2372/ 9 _3. 2625 58 O1-W Kotooshu 2075/ 8 1683/ 8 2831/10 2878/10 2234/ 9 3470/13 _4. 2510 52 Y-W Asashoryu 1218/ 5 0/ 0 4524/14 2733/11 3195/12 2456/10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- _5. 2298 52 S1-W Kisenosato 1481/ 6 3283/11 2291/ 8 1160/ 5 2525/13 2827/ 9 _6. 2094 50 O2-W Kotomitsuki 2843/11 1890/ 9 556/ 2 2168/ 8 1502/ 8 3390/12 _7. 1904 49 M03-W Baruto 1970/ 8 2389/ 9 2275/ 9 1624/ 8 900/ 4 2450/11 _8. 1831 45 M01-W Goeido 2499/10 1350/ 5 2275/10 2350/ 9 1564/ 6 1300/ 5 _9. 1811 44 M05-E Aminishiki 2056/ 8 2647/ 8 790/ 3 1549/ 9 1299/ 5 2572/11 10. 1720 45 K1-W Kotoshogiku 1418/ 6 2048/ 9 1408/ 6 1495/ 6 1866/10 1940/ 8 11. 1717 42 O2-E Kaio 2512/ 9 210/ 1 1841/ 8 1775/ 8 1905/ 8 1921/ 8 12. 1686 43 O3-E Chiyotaikai 2270/ 9 1937/ 8 2043/ 8 288/ 2 1627/ 8 2164/ 8 13. 1662 45 S1-E Kakuryu 1629/ 7 864/ 5 1164/ 9 2672/10 2552/ 9 896/ 5 14. 1630 45 K1-E Kyokutenho 1374/ 6 2109/10 1944/ 9 1290/ 6 1784/ 8 1384/ 6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15. 1185 41 M04-E Miyabiyama 1011/ 4 1728/10 1370/ 6 772/ 4 1039/ 9 1277/ 8 16. 1179 45 M09-E Takekaze 1152/ 9 1545/ 9 1279/ 7 1530/ 8 556/ 4 1183/ 8 17. 1166 46 M06-W Tamanoshima 762/ 7 516/ 6 1437/11 1374/ 8 812/ 5 1720/ 9 18. 1160 38 M02-E Tochiozan 1174/ 6 637/ 6 1212/10 2246/ 8 1413/ 6 335/ 2 19. 1115 38 M07-E Toyonoshima 1479/ 6 2348/ 9 478/ 2 1405/ 8 610/ 5 862/ 8 20. 1106 43 M04-W Takamisakari 591/ 6 1369/10 978/ 6 1122/ 6 1115/ 9 1275/ 6 21. 1102 43 M10-W Tokitenku 1004/ 6 1093/ 7 957/ 9 1316/ 5 1171/ 7 1024/ 9 22. 1028 43 M05-W Tochinoshin 820/ 8 687/ 3 977/ 8 734/ 6 1096/ 9 1545/ 9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 23. 988 38 M12-E Asasekiryu 1425/ 4 853/ 5 1024/ 6 1155/ 9 748/ 5 908/ 9 24. 984 36 M15-E Homasho 0/ 0 554/ 6 1466/ 8 1995/11 120/ 1 1365/10 25. 946 41 M12-W Yoshikaze 752/ 7 1169/11 1190/ 6 1068/ 7 740/ 4 824/ 6 26. 923 44 M08-W Kakizoe 1175/10 873/ 5 940/ 8 1043/ 7 789/ 8 840/ 6 27. 901 40 M13-E Futeno 1424/11 970/ 5 711/ 5 1021/ 7 860/ 6 670/ 6 28. 896 38 M09-W Tochinonada 1093/ 6 510/ 5 1099/ 8 1555/ 8 722/ 5 517/ 6 29. 882 35 M01-E Aran 0/ 0 830/ 8 561/ 5 1132/10 1461/ 8 860/ 4 30. 841 40 M08-E Kokkai 657/ 8 1211/ 9 880/ 5 774/ 5 867/ 8 713/ 5 (Score = weighed average with the weights shown next to the basho names) Hakuho's performance is worth 4000 points (yusho contender equivalent) in every single basho - he is playing in his own league these days. Asashoryu with 6 full bashos would be on eye level with Harumafuji. The three yusho competitors are worth something equivalent to an ozeki run during the recent bashos: Harumafuji got 34+1 wins+yusho (10029 points, including 700 for the kettei-sen extra bout win over Hakuho/Y1E=50*14), Asashoryu got 33 wins (8384 points), Kotooshu got 32 wins+jun-yusho (8582 points). This shows how high the hurdle for the young guns to make it to ozeki actually is: Even Kisenosato's best three bashos scored no more than 8635 points in total and would barely suffice for this (33 wins as well but against weaker opponents; note how his 9 wins as S1-E in Nagoya score higher than his 13 wins as M04-E in Natsu). Kotomitsuki's three best bashos gave him 31 wins (8401 points). Ozekis may throw away a basho (at the expense of being kadoban in the next one) to heal injuries whereas sanyaku rikishi would ruin their position and need to fight their way back into their previous rank. And indeed Kotomitsuki (2009 Hatsu), Kaio (2008 Kyushu) and Chiyotaikai (2009 Haru) have all made use of this advantage recently. Had they made an average result in their

I agree with HenryK's comment on the comparison between Asashoryu and Tokitenku: Such ranking lists certainly don't give an idea of strength - but they give an idea of achievement over a period (just as the mere number of wins does). And given there are 15*6 = 90 bouts within a year I don't think a calender year is too short a period for this purpose (how many matches does a tennis player have within one year?). As for comparing Hakuho to Asashoryu: I also feel that Asashoryu has achieved more during his career than Hakuho has (until now). But the highest score of HenryK's system isn't a career overview, it is a high-score of temporary dominance in one particular time interval. And Hakuho may in fact be one of the most dominant yokozunae right now, given his high number of wins despite a competition of another yokozuna and five (more or less competitive) ozekis. (Then again, valuing the #7 ranked sekitori as ozeki now while this has been a sekiwake or maybe even a komosubi in Asashoryu's best days might be a weakness of Abe's model - Hakuho profits from a lot of wins over weak ozekis as there are so many of them nowadays.) I'm not going for a more precise measurement for quality (I trust the pre-basho information of the banzuke almost as much as Masami Abe and you do, but see below), I'm going for genkiness at the time of the bout. It's may still be oversimplifying but a lot better than ignoring the condition of the athlete in general, most notably when valuing wins against sekitori who're already injured and drop out of the tournament later.Which is why a fusen win over a high-ranked sekitori is no problem for me as it mostly isn't worth that much anyway given the low genkiness of said athlete in this particular basho - his previous basho level wouldn't help me in this aspect. In Masami Abe's model a fusen win over an ozeki may easily be the greatest achievement of a sekitori in this basho... The genkiness element also values wins against highly overpromoted sekitori (who end up 2:13 or the like) rather low instead of simply trusting the banzuke in these cases. As for the banzuke ranks: Was a victory over Asa in his ozeki run, i. e. when he was still a sekiwake but went 13:2, worth less than a victory over a nervous Harumafuji ozeki who went 8:7 one basho later, just because he didn't have the higher rank already? I don't think so, therefore I ignore the banzuke titles and go by banzuke positions, i. e. value Harumafuji S1E as high as Harumafuji O3E one basho later (both as position 7 with 44 points of 50 possible). I can afford to map banzuke ranks to a linear score because usually yokozunae win a lot more bouts than ozeki, i. e. the genkiness element handles this aspect as well (beating Hakuho/14:1 is normally worth about twice as much as beating Kaio/8:7 in my model).