Ack!

Fading rikishi (at their lowest rank in last 12 months): I realize this topic is a bit of a bummer, sorry, but I thought someone might want to see this data. Noting Takarafuji's comeback, posted above, we can remain hopeful for better results in the new year. Ganbare! - Kirishima, M1w, was last among the rank and file in Nagoya 2022 - Kotoshoho, M13w, seemed to be recovering from a trip to Juryo at the end of 2023, so is not on a "fade." he just had a disaster at Kyushu that leaves him just above his M14e rank at Hatsu last year - Hokutofuji, M14w, managed only one KK in 2024. He has not been this low since Nagoya 2018, and it is his second lowest ranking since entering the Makuuchi division at Nagoya 2016 - Sadanoumi, J1e, has not been in Juryo since a four basho "rehab assignment" in 2021 - Ryuden, J3e, has been bouncing between MK and KK for the last two years. He has not been in Juryo since Nagoya 2022, when he was coming back from a three-basho suspension in 2021. Excepting that, he was last in Juryo at Kyushu 2017. - Bushozan, J7w, has not been up from Juryo that long, but he is at his lowest rank since Natsu 2022. This was his fourth stint in the top division and was the first time he managed to stick for more than one basho. So I think his current rank doesn't represent a "fade," so much as a reset for his next repromotion. - Mitoryu, J8w, has four straight MKs since his Juryo yusho at the Haru basho sent him to the top division for the third time. Sliding from J8e to J8w with a 7-8 record, maybe he is ready to rebound from his lowest rank since Kyushu 2021. - Daiamami Genki, has not lived up to his name recently, having carded five straight MKs. A career "elevator" rikishi bouncing between Juryo and Makuuchi, he was last ranked this low at his Juryo debut in Hatsu 2017. - Tohakuryu, J11w, is in the same position as Daiamami, with five straight MKs and his lowest ranking since his Juryo debut in Hatsu 2021. - Daishoho, J14w, stands on the precipice of demotion after four straight MKs. He stared that down from the same position in Aki 2021, going 11-4. Let's hope for a repeat of that achievement! - Chiyomaru, Ms10e, is on his third trip to makushita in the past 12 months. Having returned to Juryo twice, I don't think he is ready to throw in the towel, although the task has gotten harder each time.

The Takarafuji comeback continues! At M8w, he was last in single digits during Kyushu 2022, 3-12 at M8e

In please

And now it's so obvious it smacks me in the face...

I note none of the rikishi with a yusho from the bottom of makuuchi achieved the feat, nor was there a yusho at any rank involved with those who did.

Well, with a yusho and a jun-yusho within four bashos (granted a 12-3Y and a 11-4 JY are not impressive records for that feat) at sekiwake I always thought he had the potential to go higher, but that was two+ years ago with a half-year kyujo, so who knows? Maybe I'm just a sucker for believing each shin-sekiwake is the next ozeki.

My mistake: I meant to say the win/loss difference difference math. The rank difference math is intuitive, but the win/loss difference math I cannot fathom. Any explanation of that would be appreciated.

I wonder if someone could explain the rank difference math Asashosakari used in his excellent analysis above? I struggle with finding a way to compare 15-bout results against 7-bout results, so this would be very helpful

I'm not sure if I would add Wakatakakage to this list, but I don't think we have seen his ceiling yet. His comeback has been impressive, almost Terunofuji-like.

I have Otsuji at Ms5w. It is a stretch, but not without precedent. Tochimaru is at Ms6e. Ms predictions always seem like a crapshoot to me -- unpredictable.

Given his recent history, I don't think he will retire until he MKs in makushita.

I'm not surprised that Nabatame survived, but I cannot understand the rationale for not doing the Daishoho/Kotokuzan exchange.

I'm interested in trends rikishi climbing back up from the lower divisions, to see if there is any indication that they are being given more time to heal with a corresponding rebound in performance.

Surprisingly, banzuke luck seems to make it all work out just right.

Indeed! I had read that competition in sandanme is quite a large step up from jonidan, and if that is the case, this is the perfect illustration of that fact.