Wakawakawaka

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Everything posted by Wakawakawaka

  1. Wakawakawaka

    Yokozuna Hoshoryu

    Rooting for Hoshoryu that was a frustrating match to watch even without him getting hurt in it. Why is he still trying to throw Atamifuji?! It doesn't work, the kid is too big and too inert.
  2. Finals go down to my 2 favorites, can't lose there!
  3. Ura seems like the kind of guy that can have an intellectually stimulating dialogue with his pet rock. So many hate pet rocks... it's regretful.
  4. Is it normal for these to get MORE one sided as we get deeper into the polling?
  5. I saw Musashimaru more as a kid back in 1999 when Akebono was out a bit , plus Musashimaru is an oyakata now, and his appearences on the NHK programs I've seen are always entertaining.
  6. Shishi hasn't made much of an impression on me yet, Takanosho's sumo doesn't make much of an impression either, but he seems like quite the amicable fella, always busts out a big smile in interviews.
  7. Gonoyama way ahead of Mitakeumi? Poor Mitakeumi, nice guy finish last, it's ok to be a villain (Gonoyama) as long as you are good at it?
  8. I consider Shimazuumi to be similar in style to Kotoeko/Hiradoumi so I'm all aboard on him and hope to see him back in Makuuchi soon!
  9. I voted for Daieisho too, and am surprised but not Tsurugisho is (currently) in the lead, the guy's fighing spirit is admirable.
  10. Wakawakawaka

    Flying Monkey Trouble - Tobizaru Accused of Bullying

    Exactly. Until an investigation that is in proportion to the accusations is conducted, it would be equally wrong to either condemn Tobizaru or to call the accusers liars. The only way to which presumptive innocence can be applied to both parties in this court of public opinion so to say is to 'accept' the facts of the accusations, but posit missing context or misattributing of motive that would reveal Tobizaru's actions as perhaps reckless or thoughtless, but not malicious.
  11. Ichiyamamoto vs Takanosho is tough, they both seem like such jovial chaps.
  12. ^ Tamashoho has more guinea pigs
  13. O you said Daishoho .vs. Takerufuji? I thought you said Daeisho .vs. Takarafuji. That's my leading theory.
  14. Wakawakawaka

    Hatsu 2025 discussion (results)

    WMH had some ill intent on that kachiage, Ura's response: "O you want a fight do ya!?"
  15. O well, nobody else was doing it so I figured I'd give it a shot. If the result is wrong, I hope it has inspired someone to take up the task of doing it right. Edit: How about this as an alternate scoring for 'Makuuchi' (taking the top 42 players of the current meta-banzuke). In this way the average number of wins is ~7.5
  16. 1) I appreciate the respectful/civil nature of your criticism, thank you. Could I ask for a further elaboration on why you consider that this meta-banzuke does not 'first and foremost serve the interest of the players'? 2) I would counter that I've made the division sizes and movements proportional in order to better recognize players' efforts, especially in an historical context. As I mentioned before, if the banzuke contains 42 players in Makuuchi regardless of banzuke size, then the last player in Makuuchi on a 300-player banzuke is much more 'sucessful' than the last player of Makuuchi on a 42 player banzuke. The proportional (rather than absolute) nature of the divisions and movements means that no matter when you start playing, or how many players there are, similar results will land you in a similar part of the banzuke. 3) That is definitely true, but that equally effects the standard ranking system also. 4) The meta does indeed change, but it changes for everybody, and thus should effect everybody equally. I don't think there are very many cases where someone is ranked in the top 10 one year, and outside of the top 100 the next (apart from kyujo obviously). Your long-standing success should also be a counterpoint to a changing meta effecting a player's results.
  17. Probably a stupid question, but what is Super Banzuke? In regards to the Makuuchi movements, to give a more straightforward example, if the meta-banzuke had half the players in Makuuchi as the ozumo banzuke, the resulting win/loss differentials would be halved, e.g. an M4e with 9-6 would compute up 1.5 ranks (to M2w) instead of 3 (to M1e). The M1e with 7-8 would compute down 0.5 ranks (to M1w) instead of 1 rank (to M2e). For lower divisions in ozumo, a 4-3 will move you up many more ranks than an 8-7 will as a sekitori, so in meta-banzuke, the denominator could be 120, but the numerator would be higher also, so the movements would normalize. Since GTB uses a 15-day scoring system for everyone though, drawing direct parallel to the 7-day system for lower divisions posed a bit of a challenge, so I just calculated the lower divisions the same way as Juryo. Ideally I wanted to create a new way of measuring win/loss records for each division based on points, but it proved exceedingly difficult to replicate ozumo win/loss patterns (both because the number of competitors is different, and because the distribution of scores is much different), at least in a way that was efficient/automated (though that would probably be achievable to someone with more technical ability than I). Believe me, I tried many things.
  18. 1) Yes. The distance from Ms7w to Ms17w is ~0.59. The distance from Ms17w to Sd10w is ~0.36. 2) If I understand you correctly, I'm going to say no. From Juryo to Jonokuchi, an 11-4 will compute a player up by 0.5 (whether they move up more or less depends on the results of the players around them). A Sd1e with 11-4 will never land ahead of a Ms17w with 11-4.
  19. Here's effectively the entirety of how it works. Division sizes: Makuuchi: >10% of total banzuke size, <1/6th of total banzuke (max 42), Juryo: >10%, <1/6th of total banzuke (max 28), Makushita: > Makuuchi or Juryo, Sandanme: >Makushita, <2x Makushita, Jonidan: >Sandanme, <2x Sandanme, Jonokuchi: 1/6th. The intent of scaling the divisions as such was to avoid the case of say; if there's 42 players on the banzuke, and they are all in Makuuchi, being the last player in Makuuchi means you aren't doing very well, but if there's 300 players on the banzuke and 42 in Makuuchi, being the last player in Makuuchi means you're doing pretty good for yourself. With proportional division sizes, being the last player in Makuuchi will always mean roughly the same measure of relative success (because you'll be in the 10%-16.67% percentile of players) Ranking: Think of it this way, in a real banzuke, in Juryo, an 8-7 computes you up 1 rank, or 1/14th of the division. In the meta-banzuke, since the divison sizes fluctuate according to the number of total players on the banzuke, computing up 1 rank won't always mean the same thing, so I use the fraction 1/14th. That's how I calculated all the lower divisions also. For Makuuchi, which is 42 rikishi, an 8-7 computes up 1 rank or 1/21th of the division, so the 1/21 fraction is what is used. So that determines how they move, but where do they move from? Again to use Juryo as an example, Juryo is division 2, so the first spot of Juryo, J1e has a computational rank of 2.0. J8e is halfway, so the computational rank is 2.5. Ms1e computational rank = 3.0, etc. Jonokuchi is the exception because on the real banzuke it's usually about 1/4th the size of Jonidan, and acts sort of like an extension of Jonidan so some degree, so the last spot of Jk (and all debutants) have a computational rank of 6.25 In the Asset/Beeftank example, here is what happened... Asset was M11w (computational rank: 1.90625) and got a 14-1 (computes up 13/21 of the division) which would calculate to 1.287202 Beeftank was M12e (computational rank: 1.9375) also got a 14-1, so he would calculate to 1.318452381 Sandwiched between them computationally were... Heriokuno was M4e (computational rank: 1.4375) and got a 9-6 (computes up 3/21) which calculates to 1.294642857 Pandaazuma was M1e (computational rank: 1.25) and got a 7-8 (computes down 1/21) which calculates to 1.297619048 This was actually a somewhat ridiculous case of a lot of players computing to the same spot, 8 players in total calculated to 1.259 - 1.318 (which is basically 1.5 ranks) One other crucial thing I've implemented is a 'quasi-Kachikoshi' line, where if you score higher than the division average in points, that is treated as a KK and deserving of a promotion (in this case that's also why the M6w-M7e kosho duo got bumped down a rank, to accomidate Bunbukuchagama's 'KK' and for the heck of it Kobashi who computed ahead of him). If you score below the division average in points, you'll probably get a demotion in the upper divisions,though in cases with large holes to fill they may actually get a slight promotion, Toshishugisha was the highest ranked such benefactor this time around, moving J12w > J12e with 9-6 (56 points), where 'KK' was 59 points. In the lower divisions there are so many kyujo that mild 'MK' will often still get a promotion. So the main subjective things are: - Movements in the named ranks; I've been using 36/3 at Sanyaku for Ozeki promotion, which seems to maintain a healthy number of Ozeki. As you might imagine as a consequence, a 12-3 at Komusubi will force a Sekiwake slot (as an 11-4 does on a real banzuke). Yokozuna has been rather difficult to achieve given the unpredictable nature of GTB, and given the larger playerbase, 15-0 and 14-1 become harder to achieve, so the standards for Yokozuna are rather subjective and change with time. The most recent promotion was Goshobiyama: Nagoya 13-2, Aki 15-0. I've never denied 28 wins over 2 basho, but have denied 27 wins over 2. In one case I promoted a 14-1, 13-2, 13-2, in another I denied a 15-0, 11-4, 15-0. Spoiler are Yokozuna and Ozeki numbers for the past 5 years. - Expansion/contraction of divisions, and whether kosho hold or get a slight demotion. I will put players slightly out of order to accomidate a 'KK', but if it gets egregious, a division expansion will likely occur. A kosho might get a slight demotion to accomidate a KK or to split two players who compute apart by a decent amount. These cases should be moderately predictable if you were to look at the numbers.
  20. GTB meta-banzuke. Disaster averted at the top ranks as Yokozuna and both Ozeki cleared kadoban. Other items of interest... - Asashosakari has done the bulk of the work on his latest Ozeki run (M1w: 15-0 Y, S1w, 12-3) , a 10-5 for Haru likely will be enough. - Kishikaisei makes Komusubi debut. - Akakyoryu, Sugakusha, and Yusho winner Hisui make their Makuuchi debuts. - Flew makes Juryo debut. Notable Banzuke-Gai Takanorappa - A strong player in the early days of GTB. Debuted Hatsu 1999 with a 14-1 performance (first of 4), and from there proceeded to compete in 89 consecutive basho. Spent 8 basho ranked in the top 10, 38 consecutive basho in Makuuchi, and reached a career high rank of Sekiwake. His last Sekitori appearence was Hatsu 2013, and won his first and only Yusho in Kyushu 2015. SHiFT - Debuted Aki 2019 and competed in 22 total basho. Within 10 basho SHiFT recorded two 14-1's, and five other double digit records (though two of those were DD losses). After quickly improving in consistency, in the last 10 basho of SHiFT's career (Kyushu 2021 to Nagoya 2023), he scored 8 double digit wins (including two 14-1's) and his worst record(s) were two 9-6's. SHiFT retired on top, at the #1 rank for his last 3 basho, and at a career high rank of Sekiwake. THE BANZUKE
  21. The banzuke committee clearly read this forum and find joy in spiting us
  22. Wakawakawaka

    Sekitori Sweepstake - January 2025

    May I join? (shikona = Kale)
  23. The incongruency between reality and the conceivable can be perplexing at times. It is quite likely the banzuke committee employ some sort form of retrocausal faster-than-light quantum schrodinger's catbox to resolve this discrepency. I myself was considering placing the M4 duo at M9, and since I didn't, they most likely will.
  24. I usually consider it a good sign when my guess is similar to yours, however I think a lot of entries will be similar. I have the 11w/12e swap also, but more crucially I have m4w-m5w different. There's really no way to drop Oho less than 2.5 ranks, and I can't see them dropping Ura less than 2.5 ranks with 1 less win. So I have the order Chiyoshoma - Ura - Hiradoumi. I think the make or break is going to be: Do the banzuke committee give the M4 duo a joi-parachute (they have been packing those well lately)? Or do they let them go splat by the numbers like the entries so far here have suggested.
  25. Wakawakawaka

    Atamifuji - maybe this year?

    I predict much stagnation. Consistently 6-9 to 8-7 as has been, will not make Sanyaku but will drop out of the joi for a basho and score a 10-5.