Haru Banzuke Prediction

[Odoriou 0]

..Y e  Asashoryu (Y e, 14-1)
.O1 e  Chiyotaikai (O2 w, 10-5)
.O1 w  Hakuho (O3 w, 10-5)
.O2 e  Kotooshu (O1 e, 9-6)
.O2 w  Kaio (O2 e, 8-7)
.O3 w  Tochiazuma (O1 w, 5-10)
 S e  Kotomitsuki (S e, 8-7)
 S w  Kotoshogiku (M 01 e, 9-6)
 K e  Ama (M 04 e, 10-5)
 K w  Kisenosato (K e, 7-8)

M 01 e Tokitenku (M 02 e, 8-7)
M 01 w Asasekiryu (M 06 e, 10-5)
M 02 e Kyokutenho (M 03 e, 8-7)
M 02 w Toyonoshima (M 09 w, 12-3)
M 03 e Miyabiyama (S w, 5-10)
M 03 w Kasugao (M 07 e, 8-7)
M 04 e Futeno (M 07 w, 8-7)
M 04 w Takekaze (M 08 w, 8-7)
M 05 e Homasho (M 04 w, 7-8)
M 05 w Takamisakari (M 05 e, 7-8)
M 06 e Kokkai (M 05 w, 7-8)
M 06 w Dejima (M 01 w, 4-11)
M 07 e Roho (K w, 3-12)
M 07 w Aminishiki (M 02 w, 4-11)
M 08 e Kakizoe (M 09 e, 8-7)
M 08 w Tamakasuga (M 11 e, 9-6)
M 09 e Tochinonada (M 06 w, 6-9)
M 09 w Tamanoshima (M 14 e, 10-5)
M 10 e Kakuryu (M 08 e, 6-9)
M 10 w Kasuganishiki(M 13 e, 9-6)
M 11 e Iwakiyama (M 10 e, 7-8)
M 11 w Tokitsuumi (M 12 w, 8-7)
M 12 e Baruto (M 03 w, 2-13)
M 12 w Yoshikaze (M 13 w, 8-7)
M 13 e Ushiomaru (M 15 w, 9-6)
M 13 w Hakurozan (M 14 w, 8-7)
M 14 e Tochiozan (J 02 w, 10-5)
M 14 w Shimotori (J 03 w, 10-5)
M 15 e Tosanoumi (M 16 e, 8-7)
M 15 w Tochinohana (M 11 w, 5-10)
M 16 e Jumonji (M 10 w, 4-11)
M 16 w Otsukasa (M 16 w, 7-8)

J 01 e Wakanosato (J 04 w, 9-6)
J 01 w Toyozakura (M 12 e, 3-12)
J 02 e Hochiyama (J 04 e, 8-7)
J 02 w Hokutoriki (J 01 e, 6-9)
J 03 e Kitazakura (J 01 w, 6-9)
J 03 w Satoyama (J 03 e, 7-8)
J 04 e Kaiho (J 06 w, 9-6)
J 04 w Katayama (J 02 e, 6-9)
J 05 e Takanowaka (J 06 e, 8-7)
J 05 w Asofuji (M 15 e, 4-11)
J 06 e Ryuo (J 07 e, 8-7)
J 06 w Masatsukasa (J 07 w, 8-7)
J 07 e Ryuho (J 05 w, 7-8)
J 07 w Tochisakae (J 08 e, 8-7)
J 08 e Shunketsu (J 09 e, 8-7)
J 08 w Kobo (J 12 e, 9-6)
J 09 e Goeido (J 10 w, 8-7)
J 09 w Toyohibiki (J 14 e, 10-5)
J 10 e Hakuba (J 11 e, 8-7)
J 10 w Bushuyama (J 13 e, 9-6)
J 11 e Tamarikido (J 05 e, 4-11)
J 11 w Kyokunankai (J 08 w, 6-9)
J 12 e Takamifuji (Ms 2 e, 5-2)
J 12 w Shiraishi (Ms 1 e, 4-3)
J 13 e Koryu (J 13 w, 8-7)
J 13 w Daimanazuru (J 14 w, 8-7)
J 14 e Hokutoiwa (Ms 3 w, 5-2)
J 14 w Oga (J 11 w, 6-9)

(Applauding...)

[Tikozan 4]

Hmmm, looks interesting. It's nearly the same than my idea.

The one where I'm not sure is Otsukasa. 7-8 at the last makuuchi rank should normally be the demotion to juryo.

Otherwise the 9-6 for Wakanosato is not enough for promotion. (Applauding...)

[Guest rikishiboy]

Hmmm, looks interesting. It's nearly the same than my idea.

The one where I'm not sure is Otsukasa. 7-8 at the last makuuchi rank should normally be the demotion to juryo.

Otherwise the 9-6 for Wakanosato is not enough for promotion. (Blushing...)

i agree with Otsukasa staying. Wakanosato did not do enough to warrant promotion (especially since he should of done better) and Toyozakura did much worse. I think they would put Toyozakura at M16W before putting Wakanosato there. However agree Otsukasa stays and Toyozakura and Asofuji drop down.

[Kintamayama 45,285]

i agree with Otsukasa staying.

I disagree. I don't remember a single case of a rikishi ranked last going 7-8 and staying.

[Gernobono 467]

I disagree. I don't remember a single case of a rikishi ranked last going 7-8 and staying.

i remember wakakosho getting a 7-8 as juryo 14w and not being demoted due to missing promotees

[Jejima 1,401]

I disagree with this one --> K w Kisenosato (K e, 7-8). I think he'll drop out of sanyaku.

[Kintamayama 45,285]

I disagree. I don't remember a single case of a rikishi ranked last going 7-8 and staying.

i remember wakakosho getting a 7-8 as juryo 14w and not being demoted due to missing promotees

Yes, but that's Juryo. To clarify, I mean Makuuchi. In any case, there are a few promotees this time. I know for sure there were no cases in Heisei, and I'm willing to bet there were none in other times, barring expansion-bashos.

Edited January 28, 2007 by Kintamayama

[Asashosakari 19,451]

I disagree. I don't remember a single case of a rikishi ranked last going 7-8 and staying.

i remember wakakosho getting a 7-8 as juryo 14w and not being demoted due to missing promotees

Yes, but that's Juryo. To clarify, I mean Makuuchi. In any case, there are a few promotees this time. I know for sure there were no cases in Heisei, and I'm willing to bet there were none in other times, barring expansion-bashos.

And even expansion doesn't normally save guys from demotion:

1990 Kyushu -> 1991 Hatsu (expansion from 38 to 40 Makuuchi):

M11e Oginohana 5-10 -> J2w

M13e Toyonoumi 6-9 -> J3w

M13w Ryogoku 2-13 -> J9e

M14w (lowest rank) Kotonowaka 7-8 -> J1e

J1w Kototsubaki 8-7 -> M13w

J2e Tagaryu 8-7 -> M14e

J3e Owakamatsu 9-6 -> M13e

J3w Kitakachidoki 8-7 -> M14w

J4e Tomoefuji 8-7 -> M15w

J9w Daikiko 11-4 -> M15e

I know I would have demoted only Ryogoku there and promoted just three Juryo, but that's not how they work. Some results simply are "must" demotions, as long as there are Juryo rikishi with at least borderline respectable records, and the Otsukasa<->Wakanosato pair definitely qualifies on both counts. Tosanoumi would have been able to stay with 7 wins; I highly doubt that Otsukasa will.

Edited January 28, 2007 by Asashosakari

[Odoriou 0]

i agree with Otsukasa staying.

I disagree.

I agree with Kinta-san to disagree. There are 3 perfect demotion candidates and 3 (almost) perfect promotion candidates as well. I have no idea how the topic starter could not see that. (In a state of confusion...)

[Odoriou 0]

I disagree with this one --> K w Kisenosato (K e, 7-8). I think he'll drop out of sanyaku.

That's a good point. Are Komusubi with 8 losses in principle demoted to Maegashira? If so, who would qualify for the 2nd Komusubi slot - Yoyo-noshima, Asasekiryu or Tokitenku? At the first sight I thought that this Banzuke was rather boring, but now the Komusubi situation looks quite interesting indeed. (In a state of confusion...)