Long-term career predictions

[aderechelsea 125]

I met in the South American Championshipa a few of Kaisei's close friends from his amateur sumo club (Santo Amaro) and they all think that he will be in Juryo in the next couple of years. I am sure Randomitsuki's prediction would make them ecstatic .... B-)

[Fay 1,677]

If Gagamaru will ever make it to Juryo I will eat my nonexisting hat, he is one of the technical weakest rikishi I have ever seen. He hardly got a kk at Natsu Basho and didn't look good at all, he had a MK in Nagoya and this time it will be the same. Never ...

On the other hand, good to see Kakuryu on the list B-)

Edited September 14, 2007 by Fay

[ilovesumo 12]

If Gagamaru will ever make it to Juryo I will eat my nonexisting hat, he is one of the technical weakest rikishi I have ever seen. He hardly got a kk at Natsu Basho and didn't look good at all, he had a MK in Nagoya and this time it will be the same. Never ...

On the other hand, good to see Kakuryu on the list (Applauding...)

But Gagamaru has a funny sounding Shikona and an ultra charming way to avoid interviews ...

"Interview??? No...we better have a date! (Applauding...) " B-)

[Asashosakari 19,304]

Excellent stuff, Randomitsuki and Asashosakari! (Whistling...)

Regarding the predictions for e.g. Mankajo, Kaisei and Gagamaru, I'm wondering if there should be a slight alteration of your model/formula/algorithm (or whatever you call it) in terms of the size when entering ozumo. It seems that these three guys had a size advantage initially but as soon as they got to an area of the banzuke where technique matters, they started struggling pretty badly. Well, Kaisei and Gagamaru may still have a very good potential due to their combination of size and (relative) mobility, but Mankajo strikes me as a case for a size advantage in the beginning that may well become a huge handicap (Orora-style) eventually. I realize that there's probably no way to try to generalize this as a principle since it depends not only on weight numbers but also on bone structure and (in the case of Pacific Islanders for instance) metabolism, but this particular problematic probably brings some "noise" in your data.

I think there's something to that. For better or worse, there's probably something of a sweet spot combination of height and weight that allows for (on average) the smoothest path up the banzuke, and large deviations from that might work well at the beginning (i.e. up to mid-Sandanme or so for young guys, mid-Makushita for 20+ year olds), but the heated wall will be there at some point and it'll probably be a rather high one. And I'm talking about deviations in bother directions here...both undersized technical wizards (Kagaya, Sotairyu ...) and massive behemoths (too many to mention...) tend to do well, as long as their one "skill" still confers a big advantage on them compared to the other rikishi in their banzuke area. But once a more well-rounded approach is necessary, further advancement becomes much harder.

Related to that, there's the "big for his age" phenomenon that you point out. I don't think it's that important though, extreme cases like Mankajo excepted perhaps...15-year olds who come in with a decent sumo-sized body (say, 180/150) do tend to do better at first than more normal-sized shindeshi, but I don't think that advantage lasts very long. Age differences on debut seem to be a much bigger driver of early success, as far as I can tell, as do (obviously) differences in prior sumo experience.

Edited September 14, 2007 by Asashosakari

[Bealzbob 0]

Top thread guys n gals. Enjoyed it. Definitely one to come back to later though (Whistling...)

[Bealzbob 0]

Tochinoshin: currently on career-high ms6 (predicted for Ozeki)

Is that really his picture ? He looks much older than 19 (soon to be 20). Impressive 10 basho too, not an MK in the bunch and maybe destined for juryo very soon with a 3-0 @ Ms6 this time around.

[aderechelsea 125]

yep ... that's the guy ....

guys from Caucasus usually look older than they actually are. Too much hair and strong facial characteristics ...

[Gurowake 4,050]

Found this thread looking for something else completely. Quite interesting.

[Tenshinhan 1,605]

I'm pretty sure that Masunoyama and Ryuden will make my list, perhaps also Takayasu.

Nice prediction at that time with a very good hit rate. All three of them became sekitori in their careers.

[Andreas21 184]

Meanwhlile, fans in the sumo club Santo Amaro have had the hangover from their ecstasy cured, and Fay thoroughly digested her hat ... hopefully ... ;-)

[Fay 1,677]

Meanwhlile, fans in the sumo club Santo Amaro have had the hangover from their ecstasy cured, and Fay thoroughly digested her hat ... hopefully ... ;-)

one of my very, very few mistakes ;-)

[Gurowake 4,050]

There doesn't look to be anyone nearly the caliber of prospect with a career high below makushita right now compared to Ryuden, Takayasu, and Masunoyama. When those predictions were made, they were in Sandanme by the time they turned 17, which is quite impressive. I have been keeping track of potential prospects using a cut-off formula based on age and current rank back from Nagoya last year, and there's basically no one other than Takayoshitoshi and Takagenji who stand out, but they have had basho in makushita already There are a lot more people that have steadily made the list that are in Makushita: Meisei, Terutsyoshi, Hakuyozan, Rikishin. Those guys are already being covered in Heisei Hopefuls, so they aren't total unknowns. No one has consistently made the list whose current career high is Sandanme or below, but here is who has made it at various times.

Nagoya 2014: Takei, Daishozen.

Aki 2014: Shonannoumi, Kitadaichi, Yakabe.

Kyushu 2014: Shonannoumi, Kirinoryu, Koike

Hatsu: Kitadaichi

Haru: Shonannoumi

Natsu: Takumi, Onokura

Nagoya: Watanabe.

So the best prospect I can see is Shonannoumi with 2 Sandanme appearances before he turned 17, but he's not exactly tearing it up; he had a 3-4 in Natsu from Jonidan. Koike still looks like a decent prospect despite having fallen a bit behind the cut-off lately. He's about to turn 19 and is a 5-2 away from Makushita. Yakabe and Daishozen were doing alright, but had 2-5s in Natsu from somewhere not even on the list. Kirinoryu missed a basho and a half since his appearance and hasn't been outstanding, but made Sandanme before he was 17, and will be back there as he turns 18. Kitadaichi with two appearances and Watanabe with a current appearance haven't even made Sandanme yet, so I'm not going to put much hope in them.

Other guys who haven't quite made the cut-off at any point:

Yuma is about to turn 17 and is on the border of having a 5-2 in Nagoya put him into Sandanme.

Nakazono just turned 19 and is a 5-2 away from making Makushita, so the same place as Koike.

If I had to name 5 Sandanme rikishi right now, I'd go with Shonannoumi, Kirinoryu, Koike, Nakazono, and Takagenji. If Takagenji doesn't count, I'd go with Daishozen.

Edited June 10, 2015 by Gurowake

[Fay 1,677]

If I had to name 5 Sandanme rikishi right now, I'd go with Shonannoumi, Kirinoryu, Koike, Nakazono, and Takagenji. If Takagenji doesn't count, I'd go with Daishozen.

I go with Kirinoryu too, though he had some difficulties in the heya, I'll put my money (or hat) on him :-)

[Gambitfan 1]

INCREDIBLY premature question, especially given how he was only just promoted to ozeki, but do you all see Terunofuji as a potential yokozuna candidate? I ask this because other than Harumafuji (obviously) he's the only currently active rikishi I see that can hang with Hakuho, and he performed brilliantly in the last few tournaments.

[yorikiried by fate 2,027]

Of course Terunofuji will be Yokozuna (if not getting injured, caught smsing, gambling, smoking weed or playing football with children, that is...) .

[Naganoyama 5,905]

Of course Terunofuji will be Yokozuna (if not getting injured, caught smsing, gambling, smoking weed or playing football with children, that is...) .

...or talking Mongolian in the shitakubeya.

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

On 12/09/2007 at 16:55, Randomitsuki said:

Kintamayama said:

@ Randomitsuki and Asashosakari:

I dare you both to come out with a CONCRETE list of 5 (only 5) rikishi sandanme and lower that, based on your individual systems, will become sekitori.

Names.

And no obvious guys like Aran. Obscure names, please..

If any of you are spot on, say with three, I promise to worship you forever. (I already worship you both for your way with numbers, though it is temporarily..)

If not, I will come after you like a steamroller..

Yes, I know it will take some years to find out, but I'm patient. My next of kin have been notified- they are already waiting.

OK, here we go. I'll give you six, and four will make it

Masunoyama, Mankajo, Takedani, Ryuden, Takayasu, Matsumoto.

Don't forget, I don't know shoot about these guys. That's the beauty of numbers. We'll see..

Sorry for reviving a thread that is 11.5 years old. But as already pointed out by Asashosakari in his promotion/demotion report, there was a very old score to be settled around the age-old question in how far stats can help to predict rikishi careers. The outcome:

1) Masunoyama was 17 with a career-high of Sd35 at the time of prediction, made sekitori in 2010 and peaked at M4. Check.

2) Mankajo was 17 with a career-high of Sd23 at the time of prediction, and retired with a career-high of Ms6. Fail.

3) Takedani (now Okinofuji)  was 19 with a career high of Sd17 at the time of prediction, but never ranked higher than Ms15 eventually (and doesn't look like ever making sekitori). Fail.

4) Ryuden was 16 with a career high of Sd60 at the time of prediction, made sekitori in 2012 and is a career-high M3. Check

5) Takayasu was 17 with a career high of Sd27 at the time of prediction, made sekitori in 2012 and is Ozeki. Check.

6) And finally, Matsumoto (now Irodori) was 15 with a career high of Jd43 at the time of prediction, and he will make his sekitori debut in May. Check.

Seems like this score is settled, then .

 

[Rocks 1,809]

28 minutes ago, Randomitsuki said:

Seems like this score is settled, then .

Well, you took your sweet time about it didn't ya?

[Jakusotsu 5,960]

15 minutes ago, Rocks said:

Well, you took your sweet time about it didn't ya?

Tell that to Irodori...