Next veteran sekitori to drop out of juryo?

[Asashosakari 19,663]

Another thing about Tochinohana is that he turned out to be a textbook case of "fell off the cliff"...five basho from steady lower maegashira to incapable of staying in juryo isn't quite a record, but it was still pretty quickly, so he would have defied a tier classification somewhat, anyway.

Tier 3 (Rikishi who - barring injury - have proven to be in no immediate danger of falling to makushita and if by fluke they do drop down will make it back to juryo and quickly establish themselves at this level once again, but have not yet proven they can make it into tier 2 although they certainly do have the potential to make it at some point in their career and with a leap in development perhaps even do better than that - IMO these are the most interesting rikishi to keep an eye on long-term): Koryu, Mokonami, Hakuba, Shirononami, Kotokasuga, Kitataiki, Masatsukasa, Chiyohakuho.

...

The interesting thing is that the window of opportunity for many of the tier 3 rikishi may in fact have passed or be passing due to these developments. While most of them are probably way too solid to be dropping to tier 4 in the near future there is no doubt that the arrival of the strong veteran makuuchi and young hopeful makushita rikishi will make it much harder to be moving up to the tier 2 category. Logically, as tier 2 guys are moving down the banzuke, rikishi of a lower tier such as tier 3 are put at a disadvantage as they are moving down as well *unless* they make a leap in development. It will be fascinating to follow how many of them are actually going to make it to makuuchi at one point.

I think you're underestimating the impact of the fact that most of the Tier 3 guys are still fairly young; makuuchi veterans aren't forced down only by fast risers who immediately establish themselves as steady makuuchi presences, but also by the Harunoyamas and Toyozakuras of the world who mature and become part-time competition for the lower maegashira spots. At any rate, if I had to guess who's going to reach makuuchi at least once (and I'm already looking forward to ridiculing myself in five years):

Koryu, Mokonami, Hakuba, Shirononami, Kotokasuga, Kitataiki, Masatsukasa, Chiyohakuho

Yes, yes, no, no, no, yes, yes, yes.

(I can't tell if this would make a worthwhile poll question...)

Edited February 6, 2008 by Asashosakari

[kaiguma 0]

Another thing about Tochinohana is that he turned out to be a textbook case of "fell off the cliff"...five basho from steady lower maegashira to incapable of staying in juryo isn't quite a record, but it was still pretty quickly, so he would have defied a tier classification somewhat, anyway.

Messi seems content to re-assign rikishi basho to basho, and speculatively at that, so no one exactly "defies classification." Maybe the classification system defies rigid definitions. Good that it's flexible, because it serves no real end other than a bit of insight into the way things may be moving at a given moment.

Koryu, Mokonami, Hakuba, Shirononami, Kotokasuga, Kitataiki, Masatsukasa, Chiyohakuho

Yes, yes, no, no, no, yes, yes, yes.

(I can't tell if this would make a worthwhile poll question...)

Koryu-yes

Mokonami-yes

Haluba-yes

Shirononami-yes

Kotokasuga-no

Kitataiki-split

Masatsukasa-split

Chiyohakuho-yes

Why splits? anyone can make it from sheer luck and with little goods to back it up. Daimanazuru, Ryuho, Asofuji, who else? You may even consider Satoyama and Hochiyama all the same.

[Asashosakari 19,663]

Good that it's flexible, because it serves no real end other than a bit of insight into the way things may be moving at a given moment.

Maybe, but I don't think messi19 meant it purely as a situational descriptor, but also as a way to allow for at least a medium-term outlook. And for that it ought not to be too flexible.

Why splits? anyone can make it from sheer luck and with little goods to back it up. Daimanazuru, Ryuho, Asofuji, who else? You may even consider Satoyama and Hochiyama all the same.

FWIW, the guys I wasn't sure about are Mokonami and Kitataiki, so consider them my "splits". I'm really quite optimistic about Masatsukasa, at least if he avoids a return to being injured half the time.

[messi19 0]

I disagree with kaiguma that nowadays just about anyone can make it to makuuchi with a bit of luck because as far as I can tell the quality of juryo is improving and when Asofuji, Daimanazuru, Ryuho made it to makuuchi they were fighting many lesser opponents than the opponents Kitataiki/Mokonami etc... would need to overcome now if they were to make it to makuuchi. A bit of luck is probably also needed, but now it needs a convincing effort to make it and the era of sheer luck makuuchi promotions has passed IMO.

This is also reflected in the fact that Asofuji, Daimanazuru and Ryuho less than two years after making makuuchi are no longer solid juryo rikishi.

Hochiyama I consider a significantly stronger rikishi than these three and I wouldn't be surprised to see him back in makuuchi again in the near future.

Edited February 6, 2008 by messi19

[higginbotham 0]

I disagree with kaiguma that nowadays just about anyone can make it to makuuchi with a bit of luck because as far as I can tell the quality of juryo is improving and when Asofuji, Daimanazuru, Ryuho made it to makuuchi they were fighting many lesser opponents than the opponents Kitataiki/Mokonami etc... would need to overcome now if they were to make it to makuuchi. A bit of luck is probably also needed, but now it needs a convincing effort to make it and the era of sheer luck makuuchi promotions has passed IMO.

This is also reflected in the fact that Asofuji, Daimanazuru and Ryuho less than two years after making makuuchi are no longer solid juryo rikishi.

Hochiyama I consider a significantly stronger rikishi than these three and I wouldn't be surprised to see him back in makuuchi again in the near future.

It has been told about an increase in quality among Juryo and Makunouchi altogether, but maybe you are taking it too seriously. If this is really coming into being, there are some space ,however, for opportunistic rise up the ranks, since it anyway will keep happening. Chiyohakuho and Kitataiki aren't probably the best bets for promotion, though the chances are there and in a year or two or...

Edited February 6, 2008 by higginbotham

[ryafuji 815]

Another thing about Tochinohana is that he turned out to be a textbook case of "fell off the cliff"...five basho from steady lower maegashira to incapable of staying in juryo isn't quite a record, but it was still pretty quickly, so he would have defied a tier classification somewhat, anyway.

Buyuzan is another recent example: a makuuchi regular who plummeted through juryo to makushita in one tournament with a 1-14 and never made the sekitori ranks again.

[ryafuji 815]

I think it's interesting that recently we've seen several sekitori veterans, such as Kobo, Tochisakae and Jumonji, who despite being well into their thirties have carried on in makushita. Maybe it's just me, but it seems to be happening more often than in the past. I would have thought that dropping from juryo at that age would be the natural time to retire, but I guess there's always that thought, "maybe I can get back..."

Edited February 6, 2008 by ryafuji

[messi19 0]

I disagree with kaiguma that nowadays just about anyone can make it to makuuchi with a bit of luck because as far as I can tell the quality of juryo is improving and when Asofuji, Daimanazuru, Ryuho made it to makuuchi they were fighting many lesser opponents than the opponents Kitataiki/Mokonami etc... would need to overcome now if they were to make it to makuuchi. A bit of luck is probably also needed, but now it needs a convincing effort to make it and the era of sheer luck makuuchi promotions has passed IMO.

This is also reflected in the fact that Asofuji, Daimanazuru and Ryuho less than two years after making makuuchi are no longer solid juryo rikishi.

Hochiyama I consider a significantly stronger rikishi than these three and I wouldn't be surprised to see him back in makuuchi again in the near future.

It has been told about an increase in quality among Juryo and Makunouchi altogether, but maybe you are taking it too seriously. If this is really coming into being, there are some space ,however, for opportunistic rise up the ranks, since it anyway will keep happening. Chiyohakuho and Kitaiki aren't probably the best bets for promotion, though the chances are there and in a year or two or...

If rikishi from tier 3 do not improve then they'll have an increasingly difficult task to make it to makuuchi with talents such as Kyokushuho, Tosayutaka, Ri, Sasaki, Aran and many others coming up. Undeniably though Koryu, Hakuba, Mokonami to name a few have not proven capable of kk'ing when ranked in the immediate promotion zone where a simple KK would get you to makuuchi. Do you really think that if they don't improve they'll have a better chance of accomplishing that feat with an even more talented bunch of rikishi to compete against?

As I have said if they *do* improve they will probably make it *and* perhaps even stay in makuuchi. That's the whole point of why I said they're the most interesting to follow: They're still young with margin for improvement and it will be interesting to see who improves enough to make it.

Anyway since you claim to have also noted the increased competitiveness - what am I taking too seriously? Sorry, but I don't understand what you're trying to say. :-)

Edited February 6, 2008 by messi19

[Kintamayama 45,530]

I think it's interesting that recently we've seen several sekitori veterans, such as Kobo, Tochisakae and Jumonji, who despite being well into their thirties have carried on in makushita. Maybe it's just me it seems to be happening more often than in the past. I would have thought that dropping from juryo at that age would be the natural time to retire, but I guess there's always that thought, "maybe I get back..."

There's also the kabu thingy, with the abolishment of the jun-toshiyori status and the diminishing availability of stock. I'd say all three tried to stick around and see what's what, Tochisakae did get it , Koubou got Ajigawa, Juumonji still may be hoping..

[higginbotham 0]

If rikishi from tier 3 do not improve then they'll have an increasingly difficult task to make it to makuuchi with talents such as Kyokushuho, Tosayutaka, Ri, Sasaki, Aran and many others coming up. Undeniably though Koryu, Hakuba, Mokonami to name a few have not proven capable of kk'ing when ranked in the immediate promotion zone where a simple KK would get you to makuuchi. Do you really think that if they don't improve they'll have a better chance of accomplishing that feat with an even more talented bunch of rikishi to compete against?

As I have said if they *do* improve they will probably make it *and* perhaps even stay in makuuchi. That's the whole point of why I said they're the most interesting to follow: They're still young with margin for improvement and it will be interesting to see who improves enough to make it.

Anyway since you claim to have also noted the increased competitiveness - what am I taking too seriously? Sorry, but I don't understand what you're trying to say. :-)

You seem to be taking too seriously the temporary and slight increase in level in Juryo (?) as a factor setting some juryo rikishi back from getting their promotion. Maybe, or better saying, probably the ones you mentioned will be rushing into Juryo quite soon - Aran, Kyokushuho... but in a longer or shorter span of time Hakuba, Koryu, Mokonami or other may happen to get promoted if able to hang in there even without substantive improvements regarding skills, because ups and downs in level leaves holes and allow a way up.

[Asashosakari 19,663]

Maybe, or better saying, probably the ones you mentioned will be rushing into Juryo quite soon - Aran, Kyokushuho... but in a longer or shorter span of time Hakuba, Koryu, Mokonami or other may happen to get promoted if able to hang in there even without substantive improvements regarding skills, because ups and downs in level leaves holes and allow a way up.

Yes. It's not so much a matter of how many new strong guys are coming up, but how they compare to the number of veterans falling down. And that's definitely an open question right now...the current generation of veterans is already hanging in there longer than most previous ones, where it was fairly uncommon to see a 33 year old even sticking around juryo anymore. And right now we already have six 34+ year old sekitori (plus Tochinohana who just retired shortly before turning 35), and three more will be turning 34 in the next six weeks.

And in turn, I think the 2004 and 2005 recruiting classes were extraordinarily strong, so right now there's a bit of a perfect storm of strong veterans still sticking around and strong newcomers having arrived in the last year or two. 2007 has obviously been quite strong as well (2006 not so much), but the future veteran/newcomer balance is hard to predict without knowing how strong the next couple classes will be (though last year's collegiate results indicate that there's not much coming from the college ranks this year or next). It could well be that the Tier 3 guys just need to bide their time until 2010 when the next lull in juryo quality might hit.

[messi19 0]

Well, I do agree with that. If there is another period with a lack of true quality in juryo coming up and the Tier 3 guys hang on until that point they will have a good chance of making makuuchi even without substantial improvement. I guess I was not really taking that into account in my outlook.

I'm not totally convinced however that the quality of juryo will necessarily be that much worse in 2010. Rikishi like Ryuden, Masunoyama both of which are very young or others such as Takedani or Kaisei will surely need much more time to develop into sekitori and perhaps they will have reached that point in or around 2010 compensating a bit for the not too stellar debut classes which Asashosakari is predicting?

But I do agree with the point put forward that if the Tier 3 guys hang on and there is another lack of quality they very well can make it.

Besides, I am expecting at least one or two to make it even before that - in an era of high competitiveness. I'd guess a fully healthy Hakuba could be among the first to debut in makuuchi.

Edited February 7, 2008 by messi19

[kaiguma 0]

As much as I adore my adoptee Kaisei, he's getting too fat. OKay, kidding, kidding, wit a little truth in every joke.

Seriously, Masunoyama, Kaisei (not sure of the other 2 you mention), MasuMedia - are on a trajectory to debut in juryo as Tier 3 candidates, with high 4-3 records or low-middling 5-2s. That's just fuzzy future-vision but how I see it nonetheless. They will not take charge like Wakanoho*, Ichihara, Baruto, Tochinoshin, Goeido, Toyohibiki, Tochinoshin(?), etc. When they finally make it in 2010 or whatever, I doubt they will raise the bar much over the next class of veterans in juryo.

[Yes, Wakanoho went MK his first sekitori basho, but that was the wall, not entirely unexpected. Sumo quality was not always there, but he managed to push through briskly the second time. Mokonami did much better than Wakanoho during his debut, but after the waters settled it became quite clear he was only Tier 3, notwithstanding injury.]

[messi19 0]

I agree with you in that they'll slowly make their way to juryo and once they are there not charge through like Ichihara or Tochinoshin. It is pretty impressive what these are doing as it even took Goeido a while to adjust to the level (I guess Ms2W is not too far off juryo level and once he reached that rank it took him 10 basho to debut in makuuchi). On the other hand Goeido is more of a versatile super-skilled sort of rikishi so perhaps it takes a bit longer to adjust all of that to tougher competition even though he ultimately looks to have a higher ceiling than the other two.

While I agree with you that the rikishi projected to appear in juryo in 2010 will not raise the bar much they will still be more competition to overcome perhaps preventing juryo from falling into a complete 2006-like quality hole.

Masunoyama (who is my adoptee and I therefore run the risk of being a bit biased in his favour (Neener, neener...) ) needs to learn a lot, but I don't think there are too many rikishi who can claim to have been beaten only once by oshidashi and never by yorikiri (neither yoritaoshi) after 9 career basho. He is aiming for makushita promotion in 2008 so 2010 may indeed be a realistic target for his sekitori debut.

Edited February 7, 2008 by messi19

[Asashosakari 19,663]

Seriously, Masunoyama, Kaisei (not sure of the other 2 you mention), MasuMedia - are on a trajectory to debut in juryo as Tier 3 candidates, with high 4-3 records or low-middling 5-2s.

Was this a "One of these is not like the others" contest? (Neener, neener...) Masumeidai ain't going anywhere, possibly not even Sandanme anytime soon.

They will not take charge like Wakanoho*, Ichihara, Baruto, Tochinoshin, Goeido, Toyohibiki, etc. When they finally make it in 2010 or whatever, I doubt they will raise the bar much over the next class of veterans in juryo.

You realize that Wakanoho is the only one of these six that had even made his sumo debut already at the age that Ryuden and Masunoyama are now, right? (And even Wakanoho had all of four basho under his belt at that point.) I know I'm sounding like a broken record on that point, but you just cannot compare the relative banzuke advancement of a 15-year old debutant with that of an 18-year old or a college entrant, and you certainly can't draw any conclusions from such a comparison about when the younger guys will arrive in juryo or what they will do once they're there.

At any rate, if those guys really do make it to juryo by 2010 (and I wouldn't rule it out), they'll be much more like Tochinoshin or Goeido than they'll be like a prototypical Tier 3 guy like Kitataiki. There's a huge difference between making it to juryo around age 20/21 or 23/24.

Edit: I guess I should discuss Kaisei since you did bring him up...for his future career prospects, I strongly hope he's managing to establish himself at least in lower makushita this year, or I'll doubt he'll even become a sekitori. He's just getting too old already...the guys we've been mentioning as Japanese prospects in Sandanme lately are three or four (!) years his junior.

Edited February 7, 2008 by Asashosakari

[messi19 0]

Seriously, Masunoyama, Kaisei (not sure of the other 2 you mention), MasuMedia - are on a trajectory to debut in juryo as Tier 3 candidates, with high 4-3 records or low-middling 5-2s.

Was this a "One of these is not like the others" contest? (Neener, neener...) Masumeidai ain't going anywhere, possibly not even Sandanme anytime soon.

They will not take charge like Wakanoho*, Ichihara, Baruto, Tochinoshin, Goeido, Toyohibiki, etc. When they finally make it in 2010 or whatever, I doubt they will raise the bar much over the next class of veterans in juryo.

At any rate, if those guys really do make it to juryo by 2010 (and I wouldn't rule it out), they'll be much more like Tochinoshin or Goeido

You made another very good point, but..there's a difference between being like either of the two:)

Tochinoshin will probably need only 2 basho to advance to makuuchi while Goeido needed 5 (and 10 basho since reaching upper makushita).

The tier 3 guys may hope that they turn out to be like Tochinoshin in order not to have them around for too long. I think they'll take a couple of basho though a lot can happen in two years.

Edited February 7, 2008 by messi19

[kaiguma 0]

Seriously, Masunoyama, Kaisei (not sure of the other 2 you mention), MasuMedia - are on a trajectory to debut in juryo as Tier 3 candidates, with high 4-3 records or low-middling 5-2s.

Was this a "One of these is not like the others" contest? :-P Masumeidai ain't going anywhere, possibly not even Sandanme anytime soon.

Just playing fast and loose sir, maybe even tongue-wagging ;-)

So you kind of agree, that if Kaisei and Masumeidai ever make it to juryo, they'll be tier 3 material... am I right or you think they'd be one-timers?

Whatever the case, I don't have the same feeling from Masunoyama that I get from say, at least one of those twins who debuted young, or Ri and Kyukushuho debuting a few years older. Just in terms of edge and drive. There was also a teen debut with either Shikoroyama or Kokonoe that impressed me similarly. I kind of see Masunoyama as another Shibuya or the like. Sure he too could make it by 2010, but what will he do when he arrives?

Of course we shall see and you may well be right. ;-)

[Asashosakari 19,663]

So you kind of agree, that if Kaisei and Masumeidai ever make it to juryo, they'll be tier 3 material... am I right or you think they'd be one-timers?

Right now I suspect that Kaisei is on the Yoshiazuma career path at best, but then I tend to overcompensate for all the foreigner hype by being too pessimistic. ;-) Tier 3 type of juryo is certainly still possible, though he really does need to take at least a couple of steps forward this year. March will be interesting with him in very high Sandanme.

And Masumeidai...after what he's done so far, I'm not even sure that he'll surpass Ichinoya's career-high rank. ;-)

Whatever the case, I don't have the same feeling from Masunoyama that I get from say, at least one of those twins who debuted young, or Ri and Kyukushuho debuting a few years older. Just in terms of edge and drive.

Sure, but effort only goes so far...assuming that you're talking about the *nomiya twins, they're still stuck in low Jonidan after a year with career records of 18-17 and 16-19, whereas Masunoyama (with the same age on debut) was in mid-Sandanme at that point. But I'll admit that it's very hard to get a handle on the 15-year debutants...for high-schoolers like Ri there's usually some background information available from high school competitions (or at least the knowledge that there isn't such a background for somebody).

There was also a teen debut with either Shikoroyama or Kokonoe that impressed me similarly.

Must be either Matsumoto or Sawada, I presume? Matsumoto has cooled down quite a bit since his initial two-and-a-half basho or so prompted Randomitsuki to consider him a future maegashira by stats, which makes me wonder if that first 6-1 was a fluke after all. Sawada is somebody I've been keeping an eye on myself, but two missed basho in such a short career is a bit of a warning flag already.

Edit: I'm starting to wonder if Randomitsuki and I (and whoever else might be interested) should collaborate on a regular look at each basho's makushita and sandanme debuts as they happen...right now all this prospect-watching seems a bit disjointed (except for the can't-miss types like Ri), and maybe collecting it all in one place and in a somewhat set format would be beneficial...?

Re-edit: And apologies for dragging this thread ever-more :-P

Edited February 8, 2008 by Asashosakari

[messi19 0]

So we do know the answer now. Shunketsu not only drops out of juryo but goes intai. The majority of the voters got it correctly as Shunketsu was the sekitori generally expected to drop. I guess Katayama once again managed to escape demotion with a strong final week and a 7-8 record from J13E?

Edited March 23, 2008 by messi19

[kaiguma 0]

Messi, you should also close the thread (and poll) to preserve the results...

or any mod could do so.