Next veteran sekitori to drop out of juryo?

[messi19 0]

Lately we have seen quite a few veteran rikishi dropping out of juryo -some of these are now retired but most had enjoyed some decent success in makuuchi not too long ago: Tochinohana, Jumonji, Tamarikido, Kobo, Takanowaka, Daimanazuru, Ryuho just off the top of my head.

I was wondering who you consider to be the next in line?

Ushiomaru? Katayama? Toyozakura? Shunketsu? Kasuganishiki?

You can name several ones. With young talents like Aran, Kyokushuho, Minami, Sasaki, Ri and others coming up some others must be bound to lose sekitori status sooner rather than later.

Btw: This is not saying some of the aforementioned ones like Jumonji will never make it back to juryo, but with the young hopefuls on their way up chances are not exactly increasing either.

edit: I wanted to make a poll out of this, but it wouldn't let me.

Edited January 31, 2008 by Manekineko

[Asashosakari 19,661]

As much as it pains me to say it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Toyozakura out of juryo by the end of the year.

Other than that...Katayama's tightrope act (past 6 basho: first week 16-32, second week 25-17) will have to end sometime; his sumo has been positively horrible for a while now IMO. The other three don't look like immediate candidates to me, but who knows...

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

Although Ryuho and Daimanazuru may be called veterans when it comes to age, I don't really consider them as successful sekitori. They capped their career with a relative short glimpse in the spotlight, and I don't think they'll ever come back again.

As for the ones you nominated, Ushiomaru and Katayama have still some youth left in them, but the other three might drop soon. Unlike Kitazakura and Otsukasa, who will of course be promoted to Yokozuna in their 40s (Sign of approval...)

[aderechelsea 125]

Shunketsu seems to have lost his spark lately. His sumo is horrible and his size isn't helping either so i expect him to fall from Juryo in the next 2 bashos.

Anything different will surprise me ....

[higginbotham 0]

Had you asked this question earlier this month I would have pointed Asofuji as the man along with Tochinohana. The latter for his huge fall and the former because he was almost 32 (now 32), never double-digits, not a very sucessful nor long-term sekitori career ...

Shunketsu is now the guy. Once a Juryo contender and winner as well but 4 MK in a row have put him as a strong candidate for demotion which should happen soon.

Edited January 31, 2008 by higginbotham

[higginbotham 0]

@Messi19: just one more comment. I don't know for how long you've been watching sumo but it is not a current trend those veterans dropping their ranks and being thus demoted to makushita. As an actual fact, it happens all the time. They once go there and unless a really high rank is achieved and sustained for long, the retirement only comes about after this demotion.

Edited January 31, 2008 by higginbotham

[Manekineko 200]

Made the poll. (Laughing...)

[messi19 0]

  higginbotham said:

@Messi19: just one more comment. I don't know for how long you've been watching sumo but it is not a current trend those veterans dropping their ranks and being thus demoted to makushita. As an actual fact, it happens all the time. They once go there and unless a really high rank is achieved and sustained for long, the retirement only comes about after this demotion.

I'm aware of that, but I guess my point is that over the last year or so you will have noted a clear increase of quality in juryo forcing rikishi who were decently successful as recently as 2006 to drop out of it by now. Rikishi such as Daimanazuru, Ryuho who were able to make it to makuuchi during a period of lesser quality (2006) are no longer capable of surviving in juryo (Asashosakari pointed this out in another thread). That's why we now see rikishi such as Jumonji and Tochinohana either struggling in makushita or retiring from the sport. In 2006 Jumonji kk'd twice in makuuchi and won the juryo yusho in November. Tochinohana spent all of 2006 as a solid makuuchi rikishi. The juryo division has gotten tougher as a whole. Due to the fact that there are quite a few talented youngsters coming up I do expect this trend to continue.

Edited January 31, 2008 by messi19

[messi19 0]

Higginbotham: Here is an example which I hope will illustrate my point to you:

In Hatsu 2008 Satoyama, Asofuji and Tochinohana are likely to be among those demoted to makushita making it three former makuuchi rikishi. In Kyushu 2007 Jumonji was demoted to makushita. In Aki 2007 Ryuho, Tamarikido and Daimanazuru were demoted. In Natsu 2007 Kobo, Tochisakae and Takanowaka were demoted. This makes it 10 former makuuchi to be demoted to makushita over the span of 5 basho.

Now what about the former makuuchi demoted in recent times before that?

Haru 2007: No former makuuchi were demoted

Hatsu 2007: Wakatoba was demoted to makushita

Kyushu 2006: Tamaasuka was demoted to makushita (same basho when Jumonji was still capable of taking the juryo yusho!)

Aki 2006: Buyuzan was demoted to makushita

Nagoya 2006: Harunoyama was demoted

Natsu 2006: Not one former makuuchi was demoted to makushita

Haru 2006: Takanotsuru and Toki were demoted

Hatsu 2006: Tamaasuka again

Kyushu 2005: Yotsukasa and Chiyotenzan were demoted

Aki 2005: Not one former makuuchi was demoted

As you will have noticed a total of eight former makuuchi rikishi were demoted over that span -- a span of 10 basho. This easily fails to match the 10 rikishi who were demoted over the span of the last 5 basho. This is the increase in terms of competitiveness in juryo which I was talking about.

In Conclusion: While there have of course always been veteran rikishi eventually going back to makushita in recent basho the number of those has increased dramatically.

Hence the poll to try and work out who will be the next sekitori in line.

Thanks to Manekineko!

Edited January 31, 2008 by messi19

[higginbotham 0]

  messi19 said:

Higginbotham: Here is an example which I hope will illustrate my point to you:

In Hatsu 2008 Satoyama, Asofuji and Tochinohana are likely to be among those demoted to makushita making it three former makuuchi rikishi. In Kyushu 2007 Jumonji was demoted to makushita. In Aki 2007 Ryuho, Tamarikido and Daimanazuru were demoted. In Natsu 2007 Kobo, Tochisakae and Takanowaka were demoted. This makes it 10 former makuuchi to be demoted to makushita over the span of 5 basho.

Now what about the former makuuchi demoted in recent times before that?

Haru 2007: No former makuuchi were demoted

Hatsu 2007: Wakatoba was demoted to makushita

Kyushu 2006: Tamaasuka was demoted to makushita (same basho when Jumonji was still capable of taking the juryo yusho!)

Aki 2006: Buyuzan was demoted to makushita

Nagoya 2006: Harunoyama was demoted

Natsu 2006: Not one former makuuchi was demoted to makushita

Haru 2006: Takanotsuru and Toki were demoted

Hatsu 2006: Tamaasuka again

Kyushu 2005: Yotsukasa and Chiyotenzan were demoted

Aki 2005: Not one former makuuchi was demoted

As you will have noticed a total of eight former makuuchi rikishi were demoted over that span -- a span of 10 basho. This easily fails to match the 10 rikishi who were demoted over the span of the last 5 basho. This is the increase in terms of competitiveness in juryo which I was talking about.

In Conclusion: While there have of course always been veteran rikishi eventually going back to makushita in recent basho the number of those has increased dramatically.

Hence the poll to try and work out who will be the next sekitori in line.

Thanks to Manekineko!

I was rather thinking of a long, long term... For example, I picked the Natsu Nasho 1990 by accident and there were there 3 former Makuuchi dropping their Juryo ranks. If you look into some previous banzuke you will find it happening more or less often but it doesn't cease nonetheless. Though, if you already knew it is nothing new, OK.

edit: Considering it as relatively new trend compared to past couple of years , as you did, has no objection as to me.

Edited January 31, 2008 by higginbotham

[ryafuji 815]

  aderechelsea said:

Shunketsu seems to have lost his spark lately. His sumo is horrible and his size isn't helping either so i expect him to fall from Juryo in the next 2 bashos.

Anything different will surprise me ....

I still haven't forgiven that guy for henkaing Kotonowaka in his last ever bout...

[kaiguma 0]

Certainly will be Shunketsu. Someone could fall before him, but his day is coming soon. He does have a very bad and longstanding wrist injury if I'm not mistaken... plus his style of sumo only works on all of the other old washed up former makuuchi who are losing their speed and sense of balance. Now that so many have recently fallen out over the last 5 basho, he will be facing more and more new blood. His days are numbered.

Speaking of 'recent trend,' I would call it more of a 'recurring natural wave.' I'm sure you will find periods like this since the days when promotions became standardized. They will come as often as the tide, or letting out a dam. Once the floodgates open and a proper proportion of new blood fills up juryo, then climbs into makuuchi, you have a double effect working against the juryo veterans. First, the new blood is averaging above 50/50 versus the juryo veterans and approaching 50% if their torikumi. Second, as the vanguard rise up, they force makuuchi veterans down into juryo. Once Maku vets start arriving en masse, the juryo veterans are toast. Hakurozan in mid-lower juryo spells death for folks like Shunketsu. Now here comes 2 real big dogs: Tosanoumi and Tamanoshima. As we say in Brooklyn: Fugheddaboutit...

[ryafuji 815]

  Nishinoshima said:

  ryafuji said:

I still haven't forgiven that guy for henkaing Kotonowaka in his last ever bout...

B-)

I presume that means "yawn", although it looks more like yodelling to me (Whistling...) Anyway, give him his due, he has actually done quite well to stay in juryo for as long as he has. I can see him hanging on for a bit longer.

Edited February 1, 2008 by ryafuji

[Fujisan 533]

Its gotta be Shunketsu he seems to have been living on borrowed time,a long time.

I wouldn't call Katayama a veteran though.

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

  Nishinoshima said:

Ye are all wrong. Shuny will hang in there.

The man will, but how many shikona is he going to spend?

Edited February 5, 2008 by Jakusotsu

[Naganoyama 5,948]

  Jakusotsu said:

  Nishinoshima said:

Ye are all wrong. Shuny will hang in there.

The man will, but how many shikona is he going to spend?

Well he can't have Komahikari back.

[Asashosakari 19,661]

  Nishinoshima said:

Ye are all wrong. Shuny will hang in there.

Make that "all minus one". I did call him "not an immediate candidate for demotion". (Bow...) I'd definitely agree that he's lost a step lately, but I don't see him tumbling out of the division just yet.

[ryafuji 815]

  Jakusotsu said:

  Nishinoshima said:

Ye are all wrong. Shuny will hang in there.

The man will, but how many shikona is he going to spend?

I was going to ask actually: Komahikari/Ishide/Shunketsu.... has any other rikishi fought as a sekitori under three different shikona?

[Mark Buckton 1]

  Nishinoshima said:

  ryafuji said:

I still haven't forgiven that guy for henkaing Kotonowaka in his last ever bout...

;-)

dittos dittos dittos

For so long the man was a space filler only in there due to his size. Could pull off some wonderful throws at times but not many I know were sad to have seen him gone in the end - well past his use by date.

[messi19 0]

This is probably off topic but as it has something to do with the interesting points made by kaiguma I'm going to mention it. Looking at the Hatsu Juryo Banzuke I think it would be possible dividing the rikishi into 5 different tiers.

Tier 1 (Rikishi who are in juryo only in a temporary period on their way to makuuchi and, once they have made it, probably not returning to juryo any time soon): Tochinoshin, Sakaizawa

Tier 2 (Rikishi who are very competitive at juryo level, but not quite able to stay in makuuchi long-term and thus bouncing back and forth between the two divisions): Otsukasa, Ryuo, Hakurozan, Kitazakura, Hochiyama, Toyozakura, Ushiomaru, Kasuganishiki.

Tier 3 (Rikishi who - barring injury - have proven to be in no immediate danger of falling to makushita and if by fluke they do drop down will make it back to juryo and quickly establish themselves at this level once again, but have not yet proven they can make it into tier 2 although they certainly do have the potential to make it at some point in their career and with a leap in development perhaps even do better than that - IMO these are the most interesting rikishi to keep an eye on long-term): Koryu, Mokonami, Hakuba, Shirononami, Kotokasuga, Kitataiki, Masatsukasa, Chiyohakuho.

I am aware that for instance Kotokasuga had made it to juryo already a couple of years ago before losing sekitori status for a long time, but his sumo over the last couple of basho has quite impressed me and I'm fairly positive he is a much improved rikishi compared to back then)

Tier 4 (Rikishi who have been in makuuchi in the past, but are extremely unlikely to make it back there and rather have to take care of not dropping to makushita) : Katayama, Shunketsu... Asofuji, Satoyama once they make it back to juryo fit this category as well.

Tier 5 (Recent arrivals from makushita who have not yet shown they can stay at sekitori level for an extended period of time. This is not to say that they should be written off, but they just haven't proven themselves yet and really do not fit any other tier): These are obviously Wakakoyu, Kirinowaka, Kimurayama. I guess Sagatsukasa who will be returning to juryo is in a similar situation for now

To be honest, I do not know where to rank Hoshihikari and Tamawashi. I can easily imagine Tamawashi turning out to be a consistent tier 3 level type of rikishi, but he may also make it tier 1 - who knows? Hoshihikari because of his extremely unorthodox style is probably the hardest to rank. If he bulks up he could well become a tier 1 guy - if he doesn't he is unlikely to rise above tier 2.

With the dynamics which have been mentioned by kaiguma it will be interesting to see whether many of these tier 2 rikishi can maintain their current level of performance any longer. For example I can easily imagine Toyozakura and Ushiomaru becoming tier 4 type of rikishi due to the fact that stronger rikishi are dropping from makuuchi (such as Tamanoshima) and more Tochinoshin's are bound to make their sekitori debut this year [and in the long-term forcing strong makuuchi vets to become permanent juryo rikishi). The interesting thing is that the window of opportunity for many of the tier 3 rikishi may in fact have passed or be passing due to these developments. While most of them are probably way too solid to be dropping to tier 4 in the near future there is no doubt that the arrival of the strong veteran makuuchi and young hopeful makushita rikishi will make it much harder to be moving up to the tier 2 category. Logically, as tier 2 guys are moving down the banzuke, rikishi of a lower tier such as tier 3 are put at a disadvantage as they are moving down as well *unless* they make a leap in development. It will be fascinating to follow how many of them are actually going to make it to makuuchi at one point.

Edited February 5, 2008 by messi19

[higginbotham 0]

Your considerations seem interesting, however those categories leave out some rikishi. Tamanoshima, for instance, will be nowhere as Tochinohana was. In regard to Hakurozan, he is more a Makuuchi rikishi than a Juryo one. Hoshihikari and Tamawashi are safe still, no label so free to go everywhere...

[Mark Buckton 1]

  Nishinoshima said:

  Mark Buckton said:

For so long the man was a space filler only in there due to his size. Could pull off some wonderful throws at times but not many I know were sad to have seen him gone in the end - well past his use by date.

Very strange comments. It's like you are talking about someone else.

• He isn't gone
  
• He is one of the smaller sekitori
  
• He is still only 31 and relatively healthy
  
• Most Japanese commentators always talk about his fighting spirit and ring sense
  

was dittoing your yawn. My comments were aimed at Kotonowaka.

[Fay 1,677]

  Mark Buckton said:

  Nishinoshima said:

  Mark Buckton said:

For so long the man was a space filler only in there due to his size. Could pull off some wonderful throws at times but not many I know were sad to have seen him gone in the end - well past his use by date.

was dittoing your yawn. My comments were aimed at Kotonowaka.

Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa :-D ;-) ;-)

[messi19 0]

  higginbotham said:

Your considerations seem interesting, however those categories leave out some rikishi. Tamanoshima, for instance, will be nowhere as Tochinohana was. In regard to Hakurozan, he is more a Makuuchi rikishi than a Juryo one. Hoshihikari and Tamawashi are safe still, no label so free to go everywhere...

Well, as I said I only ranked those who were on the Haru Juryo Banzuke leaving out Tochinohana because he is intai by now, but I would've ranked him in Tier 4 along with Asofuji, Satoyama etc..

Tamanoshima is going down to juryo in large part due to his ongoing injury issues - I think he's going to make it back to makuuchi and not end up a Tier 2 guy like Otsukasa - at least not yet. Tier 2 guys in my rating system only include those rikishi who are not really makuuchi calibre, but good enough to make it to makuuchi every now and then. Tamanoshima is not yet one of them although Tosanoumi may soon be. But I can see your point. Another Tier would have to be invented for Tamanoshima and Iwakiyama who was a tremendous force whenever he dropped to juryo in 2007.

As for Hakurozan, in Osaka he will be ranked juryo for the third time in 6 basho without showing Iwakiyama like domination. He was a solid makuuchi rikishi in 2006, but makuuchi has become tougher with newcomers such as Goeido, Toyohibiki, Tochiozan, Ichihara and he will have to step it up if he is to rise above Tier 2. ;-)

[higginbotham 0]

  messi19 said:

  higginbotham said:

Your considerations seem interesting, however those categories leave out some rikishi. Tamanoshima, for instance, will be nowhere as Tochinohana was. In regard to Hakurozan, he is more a Makuuchi rikishi than a Juryo one. Hoshihikari and Tamawashi are safe still, no label so free to go everywhere...

Well, as I said I only ranked those who were on the Haru Juryo Banzuke leaving out Tochinohana because he is intai by now, but I would've ranked him in Tier 4 along with Asofuji, Satoyama etc..

Tamanoshima is going down to juryo in large part due to his ongoing injury issues - I think he's going to make it back to makuuchi and not end up a Tier 2 guy like Otsukasa - at least not yet. Tier 2 guys in my rating system only include those rikishi who are not really makuuchi calibre, but good enough to make it to makuuchi every now and then. Tamanoshima is not yet one of them although Tosanoumi may soon be. But I can see your point. Another Tier would have to be invented for Tamanoshima and Iwakiyama who was a tremendous force whenever he dropped to juryo in 2007.

As for Hakurozan, in Osaka he will be ranked juryo for the third time in 6 basho without showing Iwakiyama like domination. He was a solid makuuchi rikishi in 2006, but makuuchi has become tougher with newcomers such as Goeido, Toyohibiki, Tochiozan, Ichihara and he will have to step it up if he is to rise above Tier 2. ;-)

Hakurozan may stay in Juryo for long, but still he has just got there and answered well with a good kk for his standards. He tends more to become, if he is not yet, an elevator rikishi from mid-high Juryo to bottom makunouchi depending on knee, opponents and ciscunstances, unless he falls suddenly as some here expect.

Tamanoshima can be added to one of those groups despite the fact he fits better the "veterans falling apart" category whose participants are going down without good prospects of bouncing back.