Least likely to achieve KK in Natsu

[Bealzbob 0]

Of the 5 rikishi listed, which of them is LEAST likely to achieve KK in Natsu.

1. Wakanoho - Definite joi-jin rank for Natsu, career high and constantly tough opponents for 15 days.

2. Baruto - High brink-of-sanyaku rank. Suspect knee. Has he got the stamina to last in this company ?

3. Kokkai - First time as joi-jin for a year and has sparse KK's this high up.

4. Tochinoshin - Limped into makuuchi after looking like he'd cruise in. Surely KK material around M15 ?

5. Kotooshu - Kadoban ozeki with 6 absences and 7 losses in Haru. Will he be genki enough for Natsu ?

[aderechelsea 125]

Wakanoho and Kokkai the clear favorites. I'll take a guess and say that Wakanoho will have the bigger MK.

[Bealzbob 0]

I tend to agree. The one thing going against Baruto is that his destiny is relatively out of his control. If his knee gives in it gives in and there aint much he can do about it.

Wakanoho will certainly not disgrace himself and I wouldn't expect a Takekaze-esque record from him, maybe a 7-8 or at worst a 6-9. Kokkai I'm not sure about MK, I think he may just have grown into the rank nicely.

So I'll go for Wakanoho but that's as most likely. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if they all KK'd (so don't get on my case Nishi (Shaking head...)).

[That-Satsu-Guy 1]

I went with Wakanoho based on how well the haru sanyaku could "read" his tachi-ai. My second choice is Baruto, because he lacks experience when compared with Kokkai and Baruto's sumo is essentially a one trick thing. Tochinoshin will do well at the bottom if his injuries don't slow him down.

[Bealzbob 0]

I really hope you are right regarding Kotooshu, Nishi.

[Flohru 176]

I don't Wakanoho is any more likely to go MK in natsu than he was this time. He'll have virtually the same opponents and a bit more experience.

Well looking only at the Sanyaku, Wakanoho was missing out Chiyotaikai, Kotooshu, Kotoshogiku and Kisenosato this time and he faced Kaio at a time when the ozeki already had his kk. So imho Wakanoho will definitely face tougher opponents in Natsu...

[aderechelsea 125]

not to mention other guys who will be in the joi-jin like him (Baruto,Futeno?) and are not too shabby either.

[Harry 67]

Honestly I don't think Wakanoho missing out on the other three Ozeki was a big problem for him last basho as none were in their best form, barely getting KK other than the injured Kotooshu but every win counts for them so depending on when in the basho he meets them they could make life more difficult for him in natsu basho. I'm more worried about their styles matching up against Wakanoho's as their old styles are different than what he is used to. Kotoshogiku, Kisenosato, Baruto and Kokkai will be challenging too so overall he will have to step it up. He has the tools but he is still learning how to use some of them. I predict another great basho overall and I'm surprised no one picked Baruto for possible MK -- I think it will be very competitive at the top of the banzuke and for the juryo promotions as well.

[That-Satsu-Guy 1]

Is Baruto a lock for kachi-koshi or is he just not anybody's first choice?

I don't think he's a proven winner by a long shot.

[Flohru 176]

I don't think that's true. Kotooshu and Chiyotaikai are unlikely to be any tougher than Mickey and the in-form Kaio we saw this basho (at least as he was when Waka fought him).

There is also form as well to take into account. Only the Yokozunae can be counted on to have good basho.

Probably Kotooshu and Chiyotaikai (if injured) are really not tougher than Mickey and Kaio but then Wakanoho lost against Kotomitsuki that time and he MIGHT have lost against Kaio if he had faced him one day earlier; but more importantly, a Kadoban Kotooshu, a more or less healthy Chiyotaikai, the strong Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku are definitely stronger, or let's say harder to beat than some of the Mid-Maegashiras Wakanoho faced last basho like Tochinonada, Wakanosato, Roho or Dejima...

You are right about the form factor, but even if only the two Yokozuna can be counted on fighting for the Yusho, looking at the last few bashos all of the Ozeki and at least 3 of the 4 Sanyaku rikishi can be counted on achieving at least 8 wins (though one of the Ozeki usually fails that task) and someone likely achieving a KK against the strongest possible opposition should definitely be a strong opponent for Wakanoho even if not having his best basho (like Kotomitsuki last basho at the time Wakanoho faced him).

Edited April 1, 2008 by Flohru

[Bealzbob 0]

Is Baruto a lock for kachi-koshi or is he just not anybody's first choice?

I don't think he's a proven winner by a long shot.

Good question. I'd say it's just that people think there are more likely rikishi for MK. And although he's not a proven winner yet, he will be soon enough.

[kaiguma 0]

It's such a difficult question. Your first 3 choices are all hovering in the "40-50% zone" in terms of getting KK. Each has their own unique question mark: can Baruto's knee hold up? has Kokkai begun to reach a high plateau that makes him a viable joi-jin? will Wakanoho be able to manage KK again with potentially 4 opponents who are potentially stronger than the mid-maegashira he faced last basho?

So in the end I go with Wakanoho, who is marginally more likely to MK than the other 2.

But then there's injured Osh. Who knows??? And then there's the Nose, who I see as a definite Lock, which usually spells disaster.

A toss-up, really.

[Flohru 176]

I think the difference won't be that great and combined with Wakanoho learning all the time I still expect him to win between 6 and 9 bouts. No breakout basho yet but no meltdown either.

Neither do I expect a meltdown, but the difference between 6 and 8 wins might very well be the mentioned difference in opposition Wakanoho will face, like fighting against a motivated, kadoban Kotooshu rather than getting a fusensho win against him (Shaking head...)

[Bealzbob 0]

It's such a difficult question.

Isn't it (Sign of approval...) That's why I asked, and for the very reasons you outline. Each rikishi has his own question marks. I was interested in what everyone else thought.

[Bealzbob 0]

I think the difference won't be that great and combined with Wakanoho learning all the time I still expect him to win between 6 and 9 bouts. No breakout basho yet but no meltdown either.

Neither do I expect a meltdown, but the difference between 6 and 8 wins might very well be the mentioned difference in opposition Wakanoho will face, like fighting against a motivated, kadoban Kotooshu rather than getting a fusensho win against him (Sign of approval...)

Not to mention the difference between 6 & 8 wins being the difference between MK & KK in this poll ;-)

[That-Satsu-Guy 1]

If you haven't voted, hurry up! I want to see a better sampling to make these numbers more significant.

I've actually warmed up to the idea of all of these guys getting least eight, but Wakanoho seems to be climbing too fast. The breaks might be setting in for him. I think out of the choices he's going to have the roughest basho.

Baruto's sumo is looking better to me than before, but I think he still has to prove that he won't fold when confronted with the merciless sanyaku, who need to retain their positions at any cost. He seems a little gun shy since his knee injury.

Who knows?

[Asashosakari 19,650]

I'd like to go with Wakanoho, but I think Nishinoshima has it right:

I don't Wakanoho is any more likely to go MK in natsu than he was this time. He'll have virtually the same opponents and a bit more experience.

I do think he'll grab a big make-koshi in the not too distant future just because he has to have an off-basho at this height sometime, but I don't think Natsu will be it.

Kokkai I'm not totally sold on yet, either...I liked what I saw last basho a lot, but he got off relatively easy in terms of meatgrinder opponents. Still, since it's not a multiple-choice poll, and based more on wishful thinking than a firm belief, I'll pick Kotooshu.

(Disclaimer: I'm liable to be my usual risk-averse self in the sumo games in two weeks and predict a make-koshi for Wakanoho and the usual kadoban-escaping 8-7 for Kotooshu there, anyway...)

[Sasanishiki 57]

I'll go out on a limb and say that all will go MK, just to be different. This is not to say that I hope they all will, just that forces may conspire to bring it about.

Wakanoho is a phenom but could well be found out against top opposition due to his lack of experience. Yes, he'll learn from this rarefied air but it might not save his basho. Kotooshu has not looked right and his rice and cheese combo might not be enough to improve his results - his style of sumo has largely been worked out by everyone else and his knee is suspect. Baruto has immense power but is one dimensional and has a dodgy knee. He is hit or miss because of this style and the lottery of his leg holding out the 15 days. Kokkai has developed a new style which is bringing good results for him. However, I wonder if he has totally changed to embrace this style, or whether he might resort to som old bad habits if he gets a little rattled and has a few losses early. Toshinoshin is also another great prospect and should dominate where he is. however, I think he might get found out by a few wily veterans who really need a win or two. It remains to be seen how he will cope under pressure this high in the rankings.

[Fujisan 533]

I think Kokkai is gonna come down with a bump after last bashos showing,In fact I think hes gonna come down with a lot of bumps....

[messi19 0]

Is Baruto a lock for kachi-koshi or is he just not anybody's first choice?

I don't think he's a proven winner by a long shot.

As for me he was just not my first choice. :-) I think Kokkai and Wakanoho are more likely to go MK, but it is very possible in Baruto's case. Both the sanyaku and the joi jin have become so tough and I expect it to be the difference in Wakanoho's quest for KK compared to last basho. At first glance the opponents may not appear to have changed that much. But facing Kotoshogiku, Kisenosato, Chiyotaikai and Tokitenku rather than Wakanosato, Hokutoriki, Tochinonada and a fusensho win over Kotooshu makes it just so much harder to pick up 8 wins.

I also agree that Tochinoshin is fundamentally such a good rikishi that barring injuries it'd be a real surprise if he didn't pick up 9 or 10 wins. Not too mention that all the shin nyumaku seem to do well recently. Not only the ones destined for future success like Wakanoho/Goeido/Tochiozan but even the likes of Ryuo/Wakakirin/Toyohibiki looked very solid in the first basho but once they faced similar competition again (after an expected MK in the next basho) they were unable to bounce back in a similar way. Tochinoshin belongs in the first category as far as I can judge.

Edited April 27, 2008 by messi19

[Mark Buckton 1]

I also agree that Tochinoshin is fundamentally such a good rikishi that barring injuries it'd be a real surprise if he didn't pick up 9 or 10 wins.

he has some elbow / forearm problems now - needing support most of the time during keiko, but as you say, is a fundamentally sound rikishi. I fear that his weakened arm has started to 'show' in recent bouts - honbasho and at keiko, but fingers crossed for the basho hey?

[Kintamayama 45,518]

I also agree that Tochinoshin is fundamentally such a good rikishi that barring injuries it'd be a real surprise if he didn't pick up 9 or 10 wins.

he has some elbow / forearm problems now - needing support most of the time during keiko, but as you say, is a fundamentally sound rikishi. I fear that his weakened arm has started to 'show' in recent bouts - honbasho and at keiko, but fingers crossed for the basho hey?

Didn't someone who spoke to a Russian rikishi say he said Tochinoshin has a bad back and he was wrestling in terrible pain last basho?

[Mark Buckton 1]

Didn't someone who spoke to a Russian rikishi say he said Tochinoshin has a bad back and he was wrestling in terrible pain last basho?

maybe. Spoke direct though and no mention was made of the back - and was also speaking to a makuuchi 'Russian' as part of an interview for a Japanese online mag about a week ago - friends with Tochinoshin. The issue of the Georgian came up but no back woes.

Doesn't mean his back ain't dicky though but hope not - still a young lad.

[That-Satsu-Guy 1]

I think Ilovetochinoshin said something about his back problem. He could still kachi-koshi in spite of it.

Wasn't Tochinoshin fighting with a badly injured big toe when he got the juryo yusho?

Seems like he handles pain very well.

Anyway, I am alarmed that Kokkai is the leader in this poll now, but Baruto has only one vote!

Who's made komusbi and who hasn't? Who's beaten Asashoryu before and who hasn't?

I agree that Kokkai's gonna have a difficult basho, but we are just talking about a simple eight wins, not running away with the Emperor's Cup.

Not trying to say that everyone else is wrong, but I would like the Kokkai doubters to state what they are basing their doubts on. If it's just a gut feeling, I can respect that. Basing predictions on bout history often has been my undoing on the sumo game.

[Kintamayama 45,518]

Not trying to say that everyone else is wrong, but I would like the Kokkai doubters to state what they are basing their doubts on. If it's just a gut feeling, I can respect that. Basing predictions on bout history often has been my undoing on the sumo game.

I think he is joi-jin material. No more, no less. He certainly didn't belong down where he has been lately. This whole "I'm that- yotsu- guy" schtick doesn't fly with me. Down where he was, that "strategy" could work, and it did. Where he is now with the likes of who he has to handle, I give him 5 wins, and I'm being generous here. Having a fellow Georgian in Makuuchi should be a great incentive, but if he doesn't watch out, in one or two basho he will be the second highest ranking Georgian in the vi-llage.

I'll be more than willing to eat my words. I like him a lot. But Disneyland is closed for the summer.

Edited May 1, 2008 by Kintamayama