Asa's sumo - worthy of a Y?

[Zuikakuyama 1]

LOL. 100% agreement with your insightful ANALYSIS.

[rhino 0]

I think this is an innovative and interesting statistic that Mark has discovered, so I thought it would be interesting to apply it to the other yokozuna of recent days.

I have counted the number of basho, at ozeki or higher, in which another yokozuna fought to the end, for several recent luminaries.

Health warning: I did this by hand, so there could well be errors.

Here are the stats:

Asashoryu:

Bashos with other yokozuna fighting to the end: 6

Victores in these bashos: 2

Hit rate: 0.33

Verdict: weak (going by Mark's benchmarking)

Hakuho:

B: 9

V: 3

Hit rate: 0.33

Verdict: weak

Mushashimaru:

B: 38

V: 7

Hit rate: 0.18

Verdict: very weak

Takanohana:

B: 37

V: 16

Hit rate: 0.43

Verdict: pretty weak, not dominating by any stretch

Akebono:

B: 25

V: 4

Hit rate: 0.16

Verdict: very weak

Wakanohana:

B: 27

V: 4

Hit rate: 0.15

Verdict: very weak, but similar in strength to Akebono and Musashimaru.

So there you have it. There have been no really strong yokozuna recently.

The closest was Taka but he never really dominated.

Akebono and Musashimaru were practically embarassing and certainly not much stronger than Wakanohana.

It has been a sad 15 years for sumo!

Edited May 25, 2008 by rhino

[Jejima 1,384]

I think this is an innovative and interesting statistic that Mark has discovered, so I thought it would be interesting to apply it to the other yokozuna of recent days.

I have counted the number of basho, at ozeki or higher, in which another yokozuna fought to the end, for several recent luminaries.

Health warning: I did this by hand, so there could well be errors.

(Applauding...)

Very interesting statistics.

I hope that you remembered to check for any basho where Takanohana and Wakanohana were the only Yokozunas fighting at the end (or discounted any yushos won by Wakanohana when as an Ozeki - that would be all of his yushos - when his brother was the only active Yokozuna at the end) - because these should be excluded (I think), as they would not have faced each other (except in play-offs - and I am not sure whether these bashos should count or not....).

Edited May 25, 2008 by Jejima

[Mark Buckton 1]

I

(Applauding...)

this is indeed interesting but one thing stands out - longevity and overall time going against other yokozuna(s) - comparing Hak with Asa is one thing - but with the others is a bit of a stretch I think. Maru had over 6 times more basho than Asa against another to reach that 'percentage' (or in many of these cases I would venture - multipe other yokozuna) There is also the same heya facotr and brothers in the Waka/Taka event - and that famed play-off.

[Jejima 1,384]

comparing someone less than a year into his reign as a yokozuna and another man about 5 years in.

Originally I thought that this comment made earlier today was meant to imply that we should not be comparing Asashoryu with Hakuho on these numbers because Hakuho is less than a year into his reign whereas Asashoryu is now 5 years into his.... But I note now that the sentence does not say that (nor really make that much sense), as has now been qualified by this following quote made 8 hours later.

comparing Hak with Asa is one thing - but with the others is a bit of a stretch I think.

I understand that we can't compare Asashoryu with Musashimauru (who was a Y for almost 5 years).

I am wondering if we can compare Asashoryu with any previous Yokozuna, as no other seem to have had similar circumstances to him. In which case we might as well throw up some statistics, and draw any inference that we like from them.

[Manekineko 200]

Moderator Notice

One more ad hominem argument / personal attack (no matter how veiled) and this topic is closed.

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

Here is a list of Yokozuna and their yusho winning percentages since the advent of the modern system in 1909.06. It shows you how good a healthy Yokozuna performed when at least another healthy Yokozuna was around (healthy just meaning that he fought for the whole tournament).

In other words, for the entries in the list below the following conditions had to be met:

a) the Yokozuna must have fought a complete tournament

b) there must have been at least one other Yokozuna who fought a complete tournament.

Of course, different careers can lead to somewhat biased standings. Asashoryu, for instance, has only four bashos where the criteria a) and b) above are met, and he won two out of those four. If, however, say, Kaio would have been promoted to Yokozuna back in 2003 or so, the yusho winning percentage of Asashoryu would have been much higher. Anyway, here is the list:

#=Yokozuna's number

Y = number of yusho won when criteria a) and b) were met

B = number of basho where criteria a) and b) were met

Pct = yusho winning percentage.

Rank #	Shikona			 Y   B	 Pct
--------------------------------------------
1	35   Futabayama		  8   11	72,7
2	22   Tachiyama		   2   3	 66,7
3	48   Taiho			   25  38	65,8
4	26   Onishiki			3   5	 60,0
5	58   Chiyonofuji		 17  31	54,8
6	65   Takanohana		  14  28	50,0
7	31   Tsunenohana		 5   10	50,0
8	57   Mienoumi			2   4	 50,0
8	68   Asashoryu		   2   4	 50,0
10   45   Wakanohana I		7   16	43,8
11   55   Kitanoumi		   18  44	40,9
12   51   Tamanoumi		   4   10	40,0
13   40   Azumafuji		   4   11	36,4
13   67   Musashimaru		 4   11	36,4
15   52   Kitanofuji		  5   14	35,7
16   27   Tochigiyama		 2   6	 33,3
17   36   Haguroyama		  5   16	31,3
18   44   Tochinishiki		7   23	30,4
19   54   Wajima			  10  35	28,6
20   61   Hokutoumi		   6   21	28,6
21   59   Takanosato		  2   8	 25,0
22   69   Hakuho			  1   4	 25,0
23   50   Sadanoyama		  3   15	20,0
24   29   Miyagiyama		  2   10	20,0
25   64   Akebono			 4   23	17,4
26   42   Kagamisato		  3   18	16,7
27   53   Kotozakura		  1   6	 16,7
28   41   Chiyonoyama		 3   19	15,8
29   56   Wakanohana II	   3   22	13,6
30   38   Terukuni			2   15	13,3
31   49   Tochinoumi		  1   8	 12,5
32   47   Kashiwado		   3   30	10,0
33   62   Onokuni			 1   14	7,1
34   24   Otori			   0   1	 0,0
34   25   Nishinoumi		  0   1	 0,0
34   33   Musashiyama		 0   1	 0,0
37   39   Maedayama		   0   2	 0,0
38   32   Tamanishiki		 0   3	 0,0
39   19   Hitachiyama		 0   4	 0,0
39   20   Umegatani		   0   4	 0,0
41   37   Akinoumi			0   5	 0,0
41   63   Asahifuji		   0   5	 0,0
41   66   Wakanohana III	  0   5	 0,0
44   46   Asashio			 0   6	 0,0
44   60   Futahaguro		  0   6	 0,0
46   34   Minanogawa		  0   7	 0,0
47   43   Yoshibayama		 0   9	 0,0

[Shomishuu 0]

Of course, different careers can lead to somewhat biased standings. Asashoryu, for instance, has only four bashos where the criteria a) and b) above are met, and he won two out of those four. If, however, say, Kaio would have been promoted to Yokozuna back in 2003 or so, the yusho winning percentage of Asashoryu would have been much higher.

Theoretically so, but unless promotion would have somehow given Kaio something more (motivation, elixir...) than his career showed he actually had, he wouldn't have been around long enough to impact Asashoryu's percentage by a lot. Being a yokozuna, he would've withdrawn from quite a few basho, and eventually retired.

[HenryK 38]

Here is a list of Yokozuna and their yusho winning percentages since the advent of the modern system in 1909.06. It shows you how good a healthy Yokozuna performed when at least another healthy Yokozuna was around (healthy just meaning that he fought for the whole tournament).

In other words, for the entries in the list below the following conditions had to be met:

a) the Yokozuna must have fought a complete tournament

b) there must have been at least one other Yokozuna who fought a complete tournament.

Of course, different careers can lead to somewhat biased standings. Asashoryu, for instance, has only four bashos where the criteria a) and b) above are met, and he won two out of those four. If, however, say, Kaio would have been promoted to Yokozuna back in 2003 or so, the yusho winning percentage of Asashoryu would have been much higher.

Well this is exactly the reason why this statistic is biased nonsense (even if Asashoryu seems to perform better in it than the originator hoped). Asashoryu's statistic is meagerish because there weren't any other Yokozuna for large parts of his career. And this is not because there somehow happened not to be any, but because his very dominance didn't allow for any other Yokozuna promotions.

Had Asashoryu been a little LESS dominant such that the next-best rikishi -- Kaio or Tochiazuma or Chiyotaikai -- could have become a Yokozuna 2003-07, Asashoryu's stats would be breathtakig.

Edited May 25, 2008 by HenryK

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

Well this is exactly the reason why this statistic is biased nonsense (even if Asashoryu seems to perform better in it than the originator hoped).

Well, "biased nonsense" is a bit harsh an expression, especially given the fact that these statistics were computed by me (Sign of disapproval...).

The point by Mark was that Asashoryu might not be as dominant as soon as someone else is around on whom the spotlight shines (i.e. another Yokozuna). So, Mark's argument (I guess) would have gone that IF Kaio, Tochiazuma, or Chiyotaikai would have been promoted back then, Asashoryu's dominance hadn't been that clear.

Of course, I totally agree with you that the numbers show how good Asashoryu is (he was second in that list until yesterday), so the whole point of Asashoryu not being very "dai-ish" still is more or less impossible to back up with numbers. For good reasons, I might add.

[HenryK 38]

Well this is exactly the reason why this statistic is biased nonsense (even if Asashoryu seems to perform better in it than the originator hoped).

Well, "biased nonsense" is a bit harsh an expression, especially given the fact that these statistics were computed by me (First prize...).

The point by Mark was that Asashoryu might not be as dominant as soon as someone else is around on whom the spotlight shines (i.e. another Yokozuna). So, Mark's argument (I guess) would have gone that IF Kaio, Tochiazuma, or Chiyotaikai would have been promoted back then, Asashoryu's dominance hadn't been that clear.

So kinda IF Kaio, Tochiazuma, Chiyotaikia would have been promoted to Y, Asashoryu would have fared worse against them only because the would have been Y and not O? (Sign of disapproval...) (Laughing...) :-P

Hard for me to identify any sense in this.

(P.s.: I know it's unfair to come back with this to you, as this is not your position and you and I seem basically to agree).

[Jejima 1,384]

Here is a list of Yokozuna and their yusho winning percentages since the advent of the modern system in 1909.06. It shows you how good a healthy Yokozuna performed when at least another healthy Yokozuna was around (healthy just meaning that he fought for the whole tournament).

Very interesting.

But the original statistics under discussion were % of bashos won when at least one Yokozuna competed until the end, when ranked at either Yokozuna or Ozeki. Is it possible to dig up these stats?

[Peterao 3]

Was Asashoryu's sumo this basho worthy of a yokozuna? Yes.

Was Asashoryu's sumo this basho worthy of Asashoryu? No.

[Washuyama 641]

Was Asashoryu's sumo this basho worthy of a yokozuna? Yes.

Was Asashoryu's sumo this basho worthy of Asashoryu? No.

Perfectly stated! (Sign of approval...)

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

But the original statistics under discussion were % of bashos won when at least one Yokozuna competed until the end, when ranked at either Yokozuna or Ozeki. Is it possible to dig up these stats?

In principle, yes. But I see no reason why the Ozeki basho should be included.

First, one does not really expect an Ozeki to be a very serious yusho contender.

Second, Ozeki are by no means as much in the spotlight as Yokozuna and would only further water down the possibility to test the theory.

And third, the length of Ozeki careers varies considerably among Yokozuna. Once again, a dataset that is problematic to begin with, will be further impacted by this factor.

[Jejima 1,384]

But the original statistics under discussion were % of bashos won when at least one Yokozuna competed until the end, when ranked at either Yokozuna or Ozeki. Is it possible to dig up these stats?

In principle, yes. But I see no reason why the Ozeki basho should be included.

First, one does not really expect an Ozeki to be a very serious yusho contender.

Second, Ozeki are by no means as much in the spotlight as Yokozuna and would only further water down the possibility to test the theory.

And third, the length of Ozeki careers varies considerably among Yokozuna. Once again, a dataset that is problematic to begin with, will be further impacted by this factor.

I mostly agree with your comments above.

But we are not talking about all Ozeki - just the Ozekis who went on to become Yokozuna, and so are more likely to have been yusho contenders then the Ozekis who never progressed further. (In the case of Wakanohana III, I think he was more often a yusho contender when ranked as an ozeki, then when he was promoted, so his record would probably 'improve' if his Ozeki bashos were taken into account too).

However, I would still expect such a table to be a little 'chaotic' and different to the table with the Ys alone.

Originally we were discussing the number of yushos that Asashoryu won when ranked as either Ozeki or Yokozuna whilst another active Yokozuna competed until the end. It is for mostly for this reason that it would satisfy my curiosity to see how Asashoryu does compared to other Yokozuna using those stats.

Edited May 26, 2008 by Jejima

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

Originally we were discussing the number of yushos that Asashoryu won when ranked as either Ozeki or Yokozuna whilst another active Yokozuna competed until the end. It is for mostly for this reason that it would satisfy my curiosity to see how Asashoryu does compared to other Yokozuna using those stats.

It would be too tiresome for me to provide the additional data (the Yokozuna data were collected semi-manually), but my general impression is that the numbers would be even much more in favor of Asashoryu (he had a much shorter Ozeki career than most other Yokozuna). Just let me remind that rhino has provided the numbers that you were looking for with regard to the most recent Yokozuna.

[Hananotaka 8]

IMO, Asa's numbers as a Yokozuna are unimpeachable. That he did it as a lone Yokozuna is not a mark against him -- he was dominant enough to shut the door on further Yokozuna promotions for most of his career to date. That's to his credit.

Asa's sumo, from the point of view of sumo aesthetics, was very good for much of his Yokozuna career, but took a turn for the worse around 2006, most likely from a scaling back in his training. His sumo through 2007 in particular was very messy, not high level technically, and had very frenetic, harried sense to it. Still, he won, to be sure. Let it not be thought I'm making some kind of character judgment here. The Yokozuna's most basic responsibility is to win. Then it is to win with the best kind of sumo -- strong, technically sound, and forward moving. This is where sumo goes beyond sports, because the goal is not to just to win, but to win with perfection. It's an impossible ideal, but striving for that impossible ideal is the job of the Yokozuna. Thus, Futabayama's "wooden rooster". Asa cleared the first hurdle, and fell short of the loftier expectations. It's not really a problem. Caring about such things and talking about them is simply what separates the sumo fan from the casual sumo watcher.

Asa's sumo this basho was, when he was winning, very good. Of course, the losses were not good. 11-4 is not the end of the world, but again, the goal of a Yokozuna is not "an okay record". It's a 15-0 zensho with perfect, dominating (perhaps to some "boring") sumo. In that department both Yokozuna came up short, and they'll both try to improve on that next basho. The final match was very bad, but I'll address that it the other thread.

I do wish people would not make things so personal. It's just sumo.

[Jonosuke 28]

I do wish people would not make things so personal. It's just sumo.

Not much of that happening around here unfortunately.

All the years I have been talking about sumo, I have never come across any rikishi as divisive as Asashoryu. There does not appear to be anyone in the neutral camp.

On one side we have those die hard Asashoryu haters who believe he is a dohyo devil came to destroy ozumo traditions and customs with his graceless conduct and on the other we have groupie like adoration hero worshipping bunch who follow him to anywhere.

Basically we just need to agree to disagree and conduct ourselves civil as mostly it's all beyond reason.

[sekihiryu 51]

出る杭は打たれる the nail that sticks up will get hammered down.....Asashoryu is the "stickiest up" nail in sumo.

I have been a Asa fan since I saw him 8 years ago, he is exciting to watch, always has been always will be and he sure gets under some peoples skins.

Jonosuke hit the nail (another nail) on the head in the post above. Amen brother.

[Pak 0]

After a haitus from watching sumo for nearly twenty years, I'm still trying to get used to all the new faces in the sumo world.

Edited May 26, 2008 by Pak

[Bataa 0]

After a haitus from watching sumo for nearly twenty years, I'm still trying to get used to all the new faces in the sumo world.

[Kintamayama 45,095]

Anyways this "discussion" here seems pretty much settled then, i guess.

This discussion will NEVER be settled. Asashouryuu and anything related to him will forever be a hot topic for discussion.

[Washuyama 641]

After a haitus from watching sumo for nearly twenty years, I'm still trying to get used to all the new faces in the sumo world.

[Jonosuke 28]

I must admit, though, that Asashoryu and Hakuho remind me slightly of Kitanoumi and Wajima back in the 70s.

Asashoryu is actually Kintaoumi reincarnate.

But in case the above, Wajima left and you know Kitanoumi is still around.

But in case of the Asashoryu/Hakuho, Asashoryu leaves and Hakuho will be the Rijicho 30 or so years from now.

And Asashoryu will be the president of Mongolia.

Medetashi, medetashi.