Miraculous last-minute kk by senior ozeki

[HenryK 38]

Pretty uglier than that was the "bout" between Kotomitsuki and Kaio...

Oh yes. Anyone else getting tired of these miraculous 8-7 records that the senior Ozeki tend to cobble together with amazing regularity?

[Guest vscottj]

Pretty uglier than that was the "bout" between Kotomitsuki and Kaio...

Oh yes. Anyone else getting tired of these miraculous 8-7 records that the senior Ozeki tend to cobble together with amazing regularity?

My god, yes. If anyone wants to sling bout-fixing accusations around, look at the Ozeki bouts and their last-minute career saves.

[Peterao 3]

Pretty uglier than that was the "bout" between Kotomitsuki and Kaio...

Oh yes. Anyone else getting tired of these miraculous 8-7 records that the senior Ozeki tend to cobble together with amazing regularity?

My god, yes. If anyone wants to sling bout-fixing accusations around, look at the Ozeki bouts and their last-minute career saves.

I have no idea what you're talking about. Everyone knows that ozeki who aren't 100% manage to pull together a kachikoshi due to sheer will and determination, just as they needed to ascend to the rank in the first place.

[Shomishuu 0]

Pretty uglier than that was the "bout" between Kotomitsuki and Kaio...

Oh yes. Anyone else getting tired of these miraculous 8-7 records that the senior Ozeki tend to cobble together with amazing regularity?

Not that I needed any convincing but I did some digging (from 1987 on) and came up with only three cases where a 7-7 ozeki LOST to another ozeki on senshuraku, and nine cases where a 7-7 ozeki BEAT another ozeki on senshuraku. (a few of the shenanigans were on day 14). Not as many cases as one might expect, but still a fairly healthy argument that what Henry is insinuating is in fact true. But I was already on board with it anyway.

But back to the idea of getting tired of this: If I were to be tired of this then I'd be tired of sumo itself, because it's never been any other way. If the practice disappeared there would be those who would say it was improvement or progress - myself included perhaps - but given the communal nature of sumo and the culture that created it, it's perfectly understandable. That's how it's always been - and will be - and if it bothered me that much, I'd just call it all a sham and turn my attention to something else. It doesn't in any way discourage me from following sumo and calling it (quoting KM) a beautiful thing. I think that it probably ruffles (per capita) many more western feathers than Japanese.

Different eyes for different guys, I guess.

[Peterao 3]

Pretty uglier than that was the "bout" between Kotomitsuki and Kaio...

Oh yes. Anyone else getting tired of these miraculous 8-7 records that the senior Ozeki tend to cobble together with amazing regularity?

Not that I needed any convincing but I did some digging (from 1987 on) and came up with only three cases where a 7-7 ozeki LOST to another ozeki on senshuraku, and nine cases where a 7-7 ozeki BEAT another ozeki on senshuraku. (a few of the shenanigans were on day 14). Not as many cases as one might expect, but still a fairly healthy argument that what Henry is insinuating is in fact true. But I was already on board with it anyway.

Unless all three losses involved two ozeki with 7-7 records fighting each other, a 9-3 record for getting a clutch win in a certain scenario by rikishi with the proven ability to get clutch wins is, if anything, a fairly healthy argument against yaocho. Although the correct answer is still "not enough data to draw a conclusion".

[Kintamayama 45,525]

Pretty uglier than that was the "bout" between Kotomitsuki and Kaio...

Oh yes. Anyone else getting tired of these miraculous 8-7 records that the senior Ozeki tend to cobble together with amazing regularity?

Not that I needed any convincing but I did some digging (from 1987 on) and came up with only three cases where a 7-7 ozeki LOST to another ozeki on senshuraku, and nine cases where a 7-7 ozeki BEAT another ozeki on senshuraku. (a few of the shenanigans were on day 14). Not as many cases as one might expect, but still a fairly healthy argument that what Henry is insinuating is in fact true. But I was already on board with it anyway.

Well, it happens a lot in football/soccer too, doesn't it? When the teams at the bottom suddenly start winning towards the end of the basho?

[XiaoTan 93]

Pretty uglier than that was the "bout" between Kotomitsuki and Kaio...

Oh yes. Anyone else getting tired of these miraculous 8-7 records that the senior Ozeki tend to cobble together with amazing regularity?

Yes, and of course popular to the theory, Asashoryu and Hakuho intentially lost to Kaio and Kotomitsuki to make this possible. (In a state of confusion...)

[Shomishuu 0]

Pretty uglier than that was the "bout" between Kotomitsuki and Kaio...

Oh yes. Anyone else getting tired of these miraculous 8-7 records that the senior Ozeki tend to cobble together with amazing regularity?

Not that I needed any convincing but I did some digging (from 1987 on) and came up with only three cases where a 7-7 ozeki LOST to another ozeki on senshuraku, and nine cases where a 7-7 ozeki BEAT another ozeki on senshuraku. (a few of the shenanigans were on day 14). Not as many cases as one might expect, but still a fairly healthy argument that what Henry is insinuating is in fact true. But I was already on board with it anyway.

Unless all three losses involved two ozeki with 7-7 records fighting each other, a 9-3 record for getting a clutch win in a certain scenario by rikishi with the proven ability to get clutch wins is, if anything, a fairly healthy argument against yaocho. Although the correct answer is still "not enough data to draw a conclusion".

"Not enough data" IS the bottom line, showing that the scenario doesn't present itself as often as people may think. BTW, in the three cases, the ozeki defeating the 7-7 ozeki had nothing more to gain; conversely in 8 of the 9 cases where the 7-7 ozeki won, the losing ozeki had nothing more to lose. I think it depends on the era and the rikishi, and is more likely to happen among those who have been fellow ozeki/rikishi for a long time. In a five-basho span beginning 1987.11, a 7-7 Asashio was 'assisted' three times on senshuraku by Hokutenyu, who had already achieved kachi koshi. After that, the scenario reappeared only once in the next 12 years. I'd like to continue going back into the 1980s - an infamous period for these theories - but now I have deadlines. Why do retired people have deadlines anyway...

(Thread should be split if continued)

Edited May 27, 2008 by Shomishuu

[kozlodoev 0]

kishi with the proven ability to get clutch wins is, if anything, a fairly healthy argument against yaocho. Although the correct answer is still "not enough data to draw a conclusion".

This is not the correct answer at all. Statistical analysis suggests that 7-7 rikishi record a disproportionate amount of wins on senshuraku.

This guy references the original source:

http://faroutliers.blogspot.com/2005/05/fr...cs-of-sumo.html

[Asojima 2,874]

kishi with the proven ability to get clutch wins is, if anything, a fairly healthy argument against yaocho. Although the correct answer is still "not enough data to draw a conclusion".

This is not the correct answer at all. Statistical analysis suggests that 7-7 rikishi record a disproportionate amount of wins on senshuraku.

For most rikishi who have already reached KK or MK before senshuraku, there is normally little or no incentive to go all out and risk injury in the final match. Unless a major promotion or award is on the line, one more victory or defeat will have a minimal impact on their career, but a needless major injury might. For the rikish who is 7-7, it is time to pump some adrenalin and go all out for it. This human dynamic throws some nasty goop in the sterile world of mathematical models. It is not yaocho. It is not ability. It is incentive. There may be an occasional instance of "good old boy" easing up, but this is not the classic yaocho.

[Manekineko 200]

(Thread should be split if continued)

Done.

[Peterao 3]

kishi with the proven ability to get clutch wins is, if anything, a fairly healthy argument against yaocho. Although the correct answer is still "not enough data to draw a conclusion".

This is not the correct answer at all. Statistical analysis suggests that 7-7 rikishi record a disproportionate amount of wins on senshuraku.

For most rikishi who have already reached KK or MK before senshuraku, there is normally little or no incentive to go all out and risk injury in the final match. Unless a major promotion or award is on the line, one more victory or defeat will have a minimal impact on their career, but a needless major injury might. For the rikish who is 7-7, it is time to pump some adrenalin and go all out for it. This human dynamic throws some nasty goop in the sterile world of mathematical models. It is not yaocho. It is not ability. It is incentive. There may be an occasional instance of "good old boy" easing up, but this is not the classic yaocho.

The data is correct; it's the interpretation that's flawed. Short of taking some brain scans and identifying the activities in the "I'm gonna play it safe" and "I got my money/favor, time to pay for it" sectors, data alone will not definitively answer the question of whether yaocho plays a part in such kachikoshi.

(although rikishi are supposedly taught that not going all out leads to a greater chance of injury, so if you subscribe to that line of thought, the only reason a rikishi would risk injury by not going all out is if they had some compelling reason to lose...)

Edited May 28, 2008 by Peterao

[kozlodoev 0]

kishi with the proven ability to get clutch wins is, if anything, a fairly healthy argument against yaocho. Although the correct answer is still "not enough data to draw a conclusion".

This is not the correct answer at all. Statistical analysis suggests that 7-7 rikishi record a disproportionate amount of wins on senshuraku.

For most rikishi who have already reached KK or MK before senshuraku, there is normally little or no incentive to go all out and risk injury in the final match. Unless a major promotion or award is on the line, one more victory or defeat will have a minimal impact on their career, but a needless major injury might. For the rikish who is 7-7, it is time to pump some adrenalin and go all out for it. This human dynamic throws some nasty goop in the sterile world of mathematical models. It is not yaocho. It is not ability. It is incentive. There may be an occasional instance of "good old boy" easing up, but this is not the classic yaocho.

The data is correct; it's the interpretation that's flawed. Short of taking some brain scans and identifying the activities in the "I'm gonna play it safe" and "I got my money/favor, time to pay for it" sectors, data alone will not definitively answer the question of whether yaocho plays a part in such kachikoshi.

(although rikishi are supposedly taught that not going all out leads to a greater chance of injury, so if you subscribe to that line of thought, the only reason a rikishi would risk injury by not going all out is if they had some compelling reason to lose...)

The problem is the data goes on to suggest that the rikishi that have won on senshuraku under these circumstances also lose more often than they should when playing the same opponent next. I understand there are incentives for guys to make kachikoshi, but regretfully the data is consistent with a quid pro quo story.

I strongly recommend reading the whole essay Freakonomics chapter. The analysis is less sterile than you might think :P

[Randomitsuki 2,843]

The problem is the data goes on to suggest that the rikishi that have won on senshuraku under these circumstances also lose more often than they should when playing the same opponent next. I understand there are incentives for guys to make kachikoshi, but regretfully the data is consistent with a quid pro quo story.

I strongly recommend reading the whole essay Freakonomics chapter. The analysis is less sterile than you might think :P

We discussed miraculous results and the Freakonomics chapter quite a while ago. The more time has passed, the less I like the Freakonomics stuff.

First, their interpretation of data is striclty economical. They fail to rule out the plausible explanation that rikishi simply exert more effort in crunch time IMO.

Second, their dataset isn't very convincing. To make up an arbitrary example: if, say, Kaio is 7-7 and faces Kyokutenho on senshuraku, the Ozeki would have been the favorite to begin with. Naturally, the Freakonomics sample includes lots of bouts where such a situation applies. That's why I suggested a different sampling mechanism in the aforementioned thread.

Third, I start to doubt about the very premises of the article. What's so terribly different for an M14 to go 8-7 (--> up to M13) or 7-8 (--> down to M15)? I believe that in most cases the importance of KK vs. MK is highly overrated. The average difference between going 8-7 vs. 7-8 is about the same as the difference between going 7-8 vs. 6-9. The really tough 7-7 crunch only exists when promotion or demotions depend on the outcome (like in the Kaio-Kotomitsuki bout). These are the data that should be looked at.

In fact, if I ever were doing such analyses again, I would re-define "crunchiness". A rikishi is in "crunch mode" when his "virtual banzuke rank" (actual banzuke rank - wins + losses) has him at the border of demotion. I deliberately chose the example with the M14 above to illustrate this point. I believe that the rikishi on M14 will exert much more effort when his record before senshuraku is 6-8 (virtual rank of M16 and imminent danger of demotion) than when his record is 7-7.

I have never verified this assumption, but anecdotal evidence has shown me in the last few basho that there is a relatively high number of "surprising" results once "virtual ranks" are near a divisional border. Not only on senshuraku, but throughout a basho. Once again, this of course does not rule out the effort hypothesis at all.

[Asashosakari 19,654]

Third, I start to doubt about the very premises of the article. What's so terribly different for an M14 to go 8-7 (--> up to M13) or 7-8 (--> down to M15)? I believe that in most cases the importance of KK vs. MK is highly overrated. The average difference between going 8-7 vs. 7-8 is about the same as the difference between going 7-8 vs. 6-9. The really tough 7-7 crunch only exists when promotion or demotions depend on the outcome (like in the Kaio-Kotomitsuki bout). These are the data that should be looked at.

That's a reason I get quite annoyed when people keep trying to use the Freakonomics article as "proof" that there's 7-7 shenanigans right now. The book may have only come out a couple of years ago, but the original Levitt sumo article is several years older and his dataset IIRC ended in 2000 or 2001. The banzuke mechanics were a whole lot different back then (that giant sucking sound you hear is the Futagoyama and Musashigawa heya factors...) and an 8-7 really was a lot more valuable than an 7-8 because there was a good chance that it would catapult you up by 5+ ranks most of the time, so you could theoretically afford to repay the win next time and still go 5-9 in your remaining bouts. That's not true anymore, and each additional win now carries pretty much the same expected value as far as your position on the next banzuke goes, so there's no real incentive to trade a loss today for a win in the next basho anymore.

Edited May 28, 2008 by Asashosakari