50 talents on a new career high

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

Hi there,

my current talent list is comprised of about 170 rikishi. Exactly 50 of them will be on a new career high in Kyushu, so I compiled them for your viewing pleasure. The "new high" column, of course, refers to a rough estimate of their positions on the Kyushu banzuke.

Shikona		 Age  Last High	 New High	  
================================================
Baruto		  23   Komusubi	  Sekiwake	  
Goeido		  22   Maegashira 3  Maegashira 1  
Toyohibiki	  23   Maegashira 6  Maegashira 3  
Tochinoshin	 20   Maegashira 10 Maegashira 8  
Aran			24   Juryo 6	   Maegashira 15 
Tosayutaka	  23   Juryo 10	  Juryo 3	   
Yamamotoyama	24   Juryo 12	  Juryo 8	   
Shotenro		26   Makushita 1   Juryo 13	  
Fukuoka		 23   Makushita 7   Makushita 3   
Kotoyutaka	  27   Makushita 3   Makushita 3   
Kaonishiki	  30   Makushita 6   Makushita 6   
Mochimaru	   24   Makushita 16  Makushita 7   
Shiratsuka	  24   Makushita 11  Makushita 8   
Shibuya		 21   Makushita 11  Makushita 9   
Kazafuzan	   24   Makushita 15  Makushita 12  
Kyokushuho	  20   Makushita 29  Makushita 18  
Sasaki		  21   Makushita 20  Makushita 18  
Ogata		   23   Makushita 38  Makushita 29  
Terashita	   24   Makushita 32  Makushita 30  
Hidenofuji	  25   Makushita 33  Makushita 31  
Homarefuji	  23   Makushita 55  Makushita 37  
Kamei		   23   Sandanme 62   Makushita 37  
Fukao		   23   Makushita 48  Makushita 39  
Ryuden		  17   Makushita 59  Makushita 42  
Yamashita	   23   Sandanme 81   Makushita 48  
Tamadaiki	   19   Sandanme 8	Makushita 51  
Hishofuji	   19   Sandanme 10   Makushita 51  
Tsubasaumi	  18   Sandanme 27   Sandanme 2	
Akai			20   Sandanme 13   Sandanme 3	
Mankajo		 18   Sandanme 23   Sandanme 5	
Kotowatanabe	17   Sandanme 26   Sandanme 11   
Oazuma		  18   Sandanme 33   Sandanme 18   
Yashiki		 19   Sandanme 58   Sandanme 28   
Kawanari		17   Sandanme 45   Sandanme 43   
Hokuoryu		18   Sandanme 55   Sandanme 50   
Kotoenomoto	 17   Jonidan 13	Sandanme 53   
Inoue		   23   Jonidan 16	Sandanme 56   
Kotokashiwadani 16   Sandanme 89   Sandanme 70   
Isanokuni	   18   Jonidan 14	Sandanme 79   
Aiyama		  16   Jonidan 17	Jonidan 1	 
Ozakiumi		22   Jonidan 28	Jonidan 3	 
Tatsuhibiki	 19   Jonidan 30	Jonidan 5	 
Sasayama		18   Jonidan 55	Jonidan 15	
Nishiyama	   19   Jonidan 58	Jonidan 18	
Iwashimizu	  16   Jonidan 72	Jonidan 47	
Okinoshita	  15   Jonidan 76	Jonidan 51	
Yamada		  16   Jonidan 91	Jonidan 61	
Akinokawa	   15   Jonidan 101   Jonidan 71	
Shinohara	   16   Jonidan 104   Jonidan 72	
Akinoyama	   15   Jonidan 109   Jonidan 87

[Barang 0]

Very interesting table, but for example why Goeido will not be Komusubi? It is very hard to image two other candinates for that position.

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

Very interesting table, but for example why Goeido will not be Komusubi? It is very hard to image two other candinates for that position.

Sorry for that, the estimates are mostly taken from a spreadsheet and only reflect what the average promotion would be. I didn't do the standard calculation with Baruto (the average promotion for a Komusubi with 8-7 is of course to stay Komusubi), but I did it with all the others. Please take the "new high" estimates with a grain of salt.

[Mikiro 0]

Thanks so much for the interesting prognostication.

[Sasanishiki 57]

I'm interested as to the criteria for being on this list. What do you classify as 'talent'? My adoptee Hidenofuji is on there, for example. I wish him every success but I'm not sure I see a sekitori future for him, except perhaps very briefly.

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

I'm interested as to the criteria for being on this list. What do you classify as 'talent'? My adoptee Hidenofuji is on there, for example. I wish him every success but I'm not sure I see a sekitori future for him, except perhaps very briefly.

I'm still using the same (flawed) method introduced here.

Here is the method:

All active rikishi are separated in three groups:

A: Mae-zumo debut at age under 18

B: Mae-zumo debut with 18 years or older

C: Makushita debut

I track the career highs of rikishi for a number of bashos: 72 bashos for group A rikishi; 54 bashos for group B rikishi; 30 bashos for group C rikishi.

I have an historical sample of highest career ranks that rikishi achieved after a certain amount of bashos. To illustrate this point here is a random example:

On average, rikishi of group A who made it to Juryo during their career were having a career high of Sandanme 17 after 20 bashos.

Rikishi of group A who only made it to Makushita (on average) had a career-high of Sandanme 63 at the same time.

If a group A rikishi of today has a career-high of Sandanme 17 or better after 20 bashos, he has a good chance to make it to Juryo eventually. A comparable rikishi (in terms of age and experience) whose career high is at Sandanme 63 will most probably not make it to sekitori. The mid-point between these two cases would be Sandanme 40 in my example. And that is the inclusion criterion for my talent stuff. Everyone who is better than the mid-point between historical Makushita finishers and historical Juryo finishers is included on my list - if he isn't too old already.

There are a couple of reasons why this talent list is flawed (sample size, non-inclusion of body weight). The biggest flaw is that banzuke ranks cannot be compared very well over time because of different banzuke sizes. For instance, in the early 1990s a young rikishi who made it to Jonidan 20 after three or four basho was very likely to become sekitori. But back then, the division went down to Jonidan 200. In contrast, today Jonidan goes only down to about 120 full ranks, and it is much easier to reach Jonidan 20 within three bashos. That's why my list (especially the predictions in the original thread) sees some super-talents that aren't that talented. I can think of much better ways to determine who is a talent and who isn't, but lack of time and lack of some SumoDB data prevented me from improving my method.

Edited September 29, 2008 by Randomitsuki

[Asashosakari 19,309]

Everyone who is better than the mid-point between historical Makushita finishers and historical Juryo finishers is included on my list - if he isn't too old already.

Time to throw out Kaonishiki. :'-(

(Who actually happens to be one of the very first lower-division rikishi to catch my stat-eyed attention back in mid-2003...)

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

Everyone who is better than the mid-point between historical Makushita finishers and historical Juryo finishers is included on my list - if he isn't too old already.

Time to throw out Kaonishiki. :'-(

Yes, I also noticed him as being way too old to be considered a talent anymore - but still, he has only 45 out of 54 basho that he'll be tracked. Apart from that, who would have opened a thread called "49 talents on a new career high"?

On a more serious note: I have begun to write mini biographical sketches about these 50 guys and will post them in this thread. In that way there's more than just pure numbers to chew on.

Edited September 29, 2008 by Randomitsuki

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

Here is the first batch of 10 mini bios:

Akinoyama (15 years old, 176 cm, 161 kg; debut: Haru 2008; Aki record: 4-3 from Jonidan 127)

He is still very young, so it's hard to say how far he'll make it. But his heavy weight might be an indication that he has just some natural advantages in pushing other kids around. Moreover, he has never defeated any other talented rikishi.

Shinohara (16 years old, 182 cm, 112 kg; debut: Haru 2008; Aki record: 5-2 from Jonidan 125)

He turned 16 in June, and while he seems to be more gifted than behemoth Akinoyama, his career prospects have to be assessed with some skepticism. The reason is that he did not have any even half-decent opposition so far.

Akinokawa (15 years old, 177 cm, 120 kg; debut: Haru 2008; Aki record: 4-3 from Jonidan 101)

Akinokawa turns 16 during Kyushu Basho, and for a rikishi his age there is certainly potential to make it to Sandanme at the very least. His 2-0 mae-zumo record meant that he had to face some top dogs in his Jonokuchi debut, and so it wasn't entirely surprising that he went 2-5. While his 5-2 in Nagoya was mostly against underperformers he has had some decent wins in Aki.

Yamada (16 years old, 173 cm, 129 kg; debut: Haru 2008; Aki record: 4-3 from Jonidan 91)

Yamada achieved a 4-3 KK in each of his three full basho, so he does not exactly tear through the banzuke. Moreover, it seems that there was some torikumi luck involved in each of his bashos, so he might drop off from the talent list rather fast.

Okinoshita (15 years old, 175 cm, 140 kg; debut: Natsu 2008; Aki record: 4-2-1 from Jonidan 76)

It is way too early to call Okinoshita the next big thing (although I already did that a couple of days ago). But the career of the rikishi from Kokonoe-beya is really off to a good start. His 6-1 in Jonokuchi was already impressive, but much more impressive have been his first four bouts in Aki Basho where he defeated two rikishi who were in Sandanme not that long ago. Unfortunately, Okinoshita seems to have injured himself in second week, so we'll see how he fares in Kyushu.

Iwashimizu (16 years old, 178 cm, 73 kg; debut: Haru 2008; Aki record: 4-3 from Jonidan 72)

He is 16, he is the lightest rikishi in ozumou, and he had three KK in as many bashos - sounds good, doesn't it? After a 2-3 in mae-zumo Iwashimizu avoided meeting good competition so far, but if he can keep his technical prowess (three shitatenage wins in Aki Basho), keep his fighting spirit (a combined 7-1 record for bouts on days 10 through 15), and bulks up a bit, we might see him in a much higher divison some day.

Nishiyama (19 years old, 171 cm, 113 kg; debut: Haru 2008; Aki record: 5-2 from Jonidan 58)

Nishiyama might have the benefit of being a bit older than most of his aite, so his rise through the ranks naturally should be faster than for other rikishi. He defeated some quite good rikishi already, most notably two wins against former mid-Sandanmean Teraomaru coming back from injury. He is certainly someone to watch, regarding that his only career MK so far came from missing two bouts.

Sasayama (18 years old, 176 cm, 136 kg; debut: Haru 2008; Aki record: 5-2 from Jonidan 55)

Sasayama had to face many top dogs in his Jonokuchi debut, so he went MK. Since then he sports an impressive 11-3 record, but his schedule was a little soft, particularly in his 6-1 basho in Nagoya. It might be that he'll have a hard time in high Jonidan next basho, but if he'll adapt, we can expect more good things to come from him.

Tatsuhibiki (19 years old, 177 cm, 135 kg; debut: Haru 2008; Aki record: 4-3 from Jonidan 30)

The rikishi with one of the more funnier full shikonae (Tatsuhibiki Jumpei) is a relatively dark horse with respect to future career. In Nagoya he lost to Sasayama whose prospects are a little murky in themselves. In Aki Basho Tatsuhibiki defeated three rikishi with limited Sandanme experience, so he might survive in high Jonidan next basho.

Ozakiumi (22 years old, 178 cm, 114 kg; debut: Natsu 2008; Aki record: 4-3 from Jonidan 28)

Mae-zumo included, Ozakiumi had a very impressive 14-0 record since his debut (including a Jonokuchi yusho in Nagoya). However, after starting 4-0 into Aki he had three losses in a row, and two of them were against rikishi who would probably get a hard beating if they were in Sandanme. Maybe it was some second-week blues for Ozakiumi, but he must pull himself together in order to advance through the banzuke as before.

Edited September 29, 2008 by Randomitsuki

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

Second part:

Aiyama (16 years old, 170 cm, 98 kg; debut: Haru 2007; Aki record: 5-2 from Jonidan 36)

It looks very promising so far for the youngster from Kitanoumi-beya. As a 15-year old he already made it to Jonidan 17, but crashed hard with a 1-6 record. Now he slowly crawls back on the banzuke, and I'd say that he had his hardest schedule so far in Aki Basho. He lost to Ozakiumi and Omiyamoto, but his wins were against solid upper-Jonidannies like Masumeidai. His biggest scalp so far is former Sandanme Oseumi.

Isanokuni (18 years old, 182 cm, 154 kg; debut: Haru 2008; Aki record: 5-2 from Jonidan 14)

The Sakaigawa heavyweight did not have very serious challengers until Aki Basho, so his 13-3 record (including mae-zumo) did not give much indication about his potential. This changed in Aki Basho, however. While he lost to extremely gifted Kotoenomoto and to much older Inoue, Isanokuni defeated several other talents (Matsumoto, Hamauzu, Kotokashiwadani). It will be interesting to see how he'll do in his Sandanme debut.

Kotokashiwadani (16 years old, 175 cm, 101 kg; debut: Haru 2007; Aki record: 5-2 from Jonidan 5)

Kotokashiwadani turns 17 next basho, but will improve yet again over his impressive previous career record of Sandanme 89. He has never defeated a rikishi who reached the upper half of Sandanme, but has lots of wins against rikishi who've been in lower Sandanme. Kotokashiwadani lost more than half of his bouts with hatakikomi, hikiotoshi, and tsukiotoshi, so either he is not yet very quick to react, or his opponents already have trouble finding other means to win against him.

Inoue (23 years old, 179 cm, 145 kg; debut: Haru 2008; Aki record: 6-1 from Jonidan 16)

Inoue currently sports a 19-4 record in ozumou (including mae-zumo). However, both in terms of age and of body weight most aite were no match to him. And still, during his career he almost met (and defeated) all other talents in Jonidan. The best indication for his potential might be his win on shonichi of Aki Basho against Tokiryu who was in mid-Makushita in early 2007, before dropping due to an injury. However, being 23 already, time is not on Inoue's side, and he must continue with a quick rise if he wants to make it to sekitori.

Kotoenomoto (17 years old, 176 cm, 126 kg; debut: Haru 2008; Aki record: 6-1 from Jonidan 13)

I am pretty certain that this guy is a future sekitori. With only 16 years he defeated good opponents left and right with strong oshi-zumo. In mae-zumo he already defeated Kamei (who went 7-0 this basho in Sandanme). On senshuraku of Aki Basho Kotoenomoto won against Tokachiumi who might already be in Makushita were it not for many injuries, so this is just the last milestone indicating the future greatness of the Sadogatake boy.

Hokuoryu (18 years old, 172 cm, 127 kg; debut: Haru 2006; Aki record: 4-3 from Sandanme 70)

His rise through the banzuke has been rather inconspicuous because he never had a record better than 5-2. On the other hand, his worst record is 3-4, so we are witnessing a slow, but steady improvement. His best basho was probably Nagoya where he finished 3-4, but had three wins against rikishi with some experience in upper Sandanme. Next basho he can show whether he has improved from that level.

Kawanari (17 years old, 183 cm, 164 kg; debut: Haru 2007; Aki record: 4-3 from Sandanme 63)

It's difficult to know how much of his good career record is due to his weight advantage, and how much is actual talent. Three consecutive 5-2 bashos (two of them on a career high) brought him onto the map, but it remains to be seen if he'll stay there. In Aki he finished 4-3, but his opponents weren't the best available. If a single bout can be of any indication, it was slightly worrisome that one of his three losses was against Otaka who has a career-high of Sandanme 62 after more than four years of sumo.

Yashiki (19 years old, 178 cm, 140 kg; debut: Haru 2008; Aki record: 5-2 from Sandanme 58)

In Jonokuchi and Jonidan he was much older than most of his foes, but in Sandanme he finds himself against competition of same age and size, and doing splendid against it. In Aki Basho he finished 5-2 from mid-Sandanme, defeating several Sandanme regulars in the process. According to my lower division strength ratings, Yashiki might already be able to hold his ground in lower Makushita.

Oazuma (18 years old, 196 cm, 150 kg; debut: Natsu 2006; Aki record: 4-3 from Sandanme 33)

The Tamanoi giant propelled himself rather easily into upper Jonidan. In Kyushu he defeated Aoba on his return to Makushita, and this was the first very good indicator that Oazuma will soon be a Makushita regular by himself. According to my strength ratings, he shouldn't have stood a chance against his opposition of Aki Basho. But he managed to win 4-3 against the likes of Asahisho, Seiro, and Ryuyo, all of which have some Makushita experience.

Kotowatanabe (17 years old, 174 cm, 133 kg; debut: Haru 2006; Aki record: 4-3 from Sandanme 26)

Kotowatanabe had the benefit of starting ozumo aged 15, and a good talent can slowly grow under those conditions, largely going under the radar of observers. When he crash-landed 1-6 in his Sandanme debut, nobody would have thought of his subsequent development. He made notice by reaching the Jonidan kettei-sen last Hatsu, and since that success he finished 4-3 in each basho. Already at Sandanme 26 in Aki, he defeated two former Makushita rikishi, and while his career record still lacks the really whopping wins, he is young enough to recover from eventual setbacks.

[Asashosakari 19,309]

Thanks for doing these capsules! ;-) From looking at who's still to come in the next three instalments, I'd have to say that batch #2 is by far the most intriguing one. Even allowing for my usual stance of not putting much stock into what happens below Sandanme, there are a whole bunch of guys among those 10 that have also caught my attention.

I'll still maintain that highest KK-rank is a more interesting measure than highest rank, though. (Sign of approval...)

[Fay 1,677]

Kotowatanabe (17 years old, 174 cm, 133 kg; debut: Haru 2006; Aki record: 4-3 from Sandanme 26)

Kotowatanabe had the benefit of starting ozumo aged 15, and a good talent can slowly grow under those conditions, largely going under the radar of observers. When he crash-landed 1-6 in his Sandanme debut, nobody would have thought of his subsequent development. He made notice by reaching the Jonidan kettei-sen last Hatsu, and since that success he finished 4-3 in each basho. Already at Sandanme 26 in Aki, he defeated two former Makushita rikishi, and while his career record still lacks the really whopping wins, he is young enough to recover from eventual setbacks.

Nobody ? ;-)

I'm quite sure that Watanabe also has the talent to make it to sekitori like Kashiwadani and Enomoto. I will also have Kotookuyama on my list, who was a bit injured this basho and got this awful record od 1-6 (Sign of approval...)

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

Yamada ...............it seems that there was some torikumi luck involved in each of his bashos

Could you elaborate on this. I've only seen three or four of his bouts live but all the opponents seemed quite strong.

Of course that's just an impression from reading the names and checking the results of his aite. With the exception of a bout against Kamei (which he lost) Yamada did not have any opponents from the Haru 2008 class that made a very strong impact, nor did he have the bad luck to face someone much better returning from injury. In his three basho there were only three bouts against rikishi with experience in upper Jonidan. And even they hardly look like strong foes: Hayatefuji and Otsukuba have career highs of Jd44 and Jd 45 after nine and seventeen years, respectively. And while one of Yamada's wins was against a former Sandanme, that guy (Hokutoryu) is already 37 and spent the last 12 years in lower Jonidan.

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

Kotowatanabe (17 years old, 174 cm, 133 kg; debut: Haru 2006; Aki record: 4-3 from Sandanme 26)

When he crash-landed 1-6 in his Sandanme debut, nobody would have thought of his subsequent development.

Nobody ? (Whistling...)

I'm quite sure that Watanabe also has the talent to make it to sekitori like Kashiwadani and Enomoto. I will also have Kotookuyama on my list, who was a bit injured this basho and got this awful record od 1-6 :-)

I am very certain about Kotoenomoto, and rather certain about Kotookuyama (despite his 1-6). Kotowatanabe and Kotokashiwadani might have some bigger problems. But don't worry - my "Talentometer" (flawed as it is; see the reasons in a post above) still lists even these two guys as future sanyaku...

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

And here comes the third part:

Mankajo (18 years old, 182 cm, 212 kg; debut: Haru 2005; Aki record: 6-1 from Sandanme 60)

When I started to observe lower divisons more closely, I hailed Mankajo as a future sekitori, not taking into account that his quick rise as a 15-year old was due to his massive size. Meanwhile, he is 18, and while I have serious doubts that he can become a sekitori, he will probably be better than Orora (and that kid just got a KK in Makushita). In Nagoya Mankajo went 1-6 from Sandanme 24, but I tend to think that he had a pretty tough schedule there. In contrast, at Aki he had a relatively easy schedule, but his 6-1 is nothing to sneeze at.

Akai (20 years old, 181 cm, 137 kg; debut: Kyushu 2005; Aki record: 4-3 from Sandanme 13)

Akai could have been much higher-ranked already if a four-basho absence two years ago hadn't thrown him from Sandanme down to banzuke-gai. After the hiatus he finished 6-1 three times in a row, and he won twice against Makushita returnee Hakiai in the process. It took him one basho to adapt to Sandanme, but he has made three KK since then. In Nagoya he already defeated lots of great talents like Takedani, Kotowatanabe, and Tamadaiki in what was probably his best basho so far.

Tsubasaumi (18 years old, 179 cm, 158 kg; debut: Haru 2005; Aki record: 5-2 from Sandanme 27)

The relatively heavy youngster from Kitanoumi-beya can't do much more than oshidashi, but he seems to excel at it. After a good career start he yo-yo'ed between lower Sandanme and upper Jonidan for more than a year. But in the last three basho a real upward trend was discernible. His best basho was Aki where he had a 5-2 against very good opposition (wins against talents Kotowatanabe and Oazuma, against Makushita regular Hananosato, and veteran Chokozan; losses only against former Juryo 1 Daishoyama and super-talent Ryuden).

Hishofuji (19 years old, 192 cm, 166 kg; debut: Haru 2005; Aki record: 5-2 from Sandanme 10)

During his three years as sumotori he must have basically eaten, as Hishofuji gained almost 40 kg in that time. It seems to pay off, as he has just had his sixth KK in a row. Two bashos ago he already won against Masutoo, so he might be fit for Makushita already. In Aki Basho he also had some quality wins against experienced Makushita veterans like Keno and Kaishoryu.

Tamadaiki (19 years old, 180 cm, 113 kg; debut: Haru 2007; Aki record: 5-2 from Sandanme 9)

Tamadaiki had an incredible start into ozumou. In a star-studded class of Haru 2007, he was on par with guys like Shiratsuka (whom he defeated twice) or Wakaryoma, losing only against Tosayutaka. He made mid-Sandanme in no time, and while he still achieved several KK after that, it has become a little silent around him. In Natsu Basho he had his first career-MK in high Sandanme, but he finished 5-2 twice since then.

Yamashita (23 years old, 173 cm, 160 kg; debut: Hatsu 2008; Aki record: 7-0 yusho from Sandanme 81)

He is a classical candidate for unjustifiably(?) being praised as the next big hope for sumo. Yes, he has lost only five bouts in four bashos (and three of those losses came against Makushita star Homarefuji). But if you see that Yamashita is only half a year younger than another guy who just has won his 8th yusho in Makuuchi, his achievements are put into perspective. In fact, I wouldn't regard his opponents so far as particularly tough. He won the Jonidan yusho in Aki Basho, but had relatively easy opponents in the first six bouts. The seventh bout was a quality win against Makushita regular Daishoma, and of course he also won the kettei-sen against Kamei. But still, I have a feeling that Yamashita will not rush through Makushita.

Ryuden (17 years old, 190 cm, 117 kg; debut: Haru 2006; Aki record: 6-1 from Sandanme 20)

Sekitori alert! Sekitori alert! The lanky yotsu-man from Takadagawa-beya was causing some craze when he made it to Makushita as a 17-year old. But then he lost 2-5 and 3-4 in the subsequent bashos, and he was off the radar again. Guess what, he is still 17, and while the Makushita debut wasn't that impressive, the 3-4 in the basho after that was due to extremely tough aite. In Nagoya he achieved a KK from Sandame 36 which seemed to be a confidence builder for Aki Basho. There he had an incredible 6-1 record against very strong foes (Kaishoryu, Dewaotori, Tsubasaumi, Wakakasuga), all of them former or future Makushita mainstays. Ryuden is one of the better things happening to ozumou.

Fukao (23 years old, 181 cm, 193 kg; debut: Hatsu 2008; Aki record: 4-3 from Makushita 48)

I know that some Forumers are quite skeptical about Fukao, but a guy who won his first 23 career bouts can't be all that bad. If he'll really make it to sekitori remains to be seen. As for now, I would have said that he's very close to hitting the wall. In Aki Basho he was in danger of getting the first career MK, and the losses were not exactly against any under-ranked overachievers. However, Fukao turned the tides and finished with a KK, getting his only quality win against former Juryo Toyonokuni (who however might not be his former self after missing Haru Basho).

Kamei (23 years old, 194 cm, 131 kg; debut: Haru 2008; Aki record: 7-0 jun-yusho from Sandanme 62)

Kamei is one of the tallest rikishi in ozumo, and he currently has won more than two thirds of his bouts with uwatenage! There's a new Kotonowaka around the corner, it seems. With age and size at his advantage, he rushed through the banzuke in no time. His best basho was the Jonidan-yusho in Nagoya against relatively strong opponents (Juban, Daishokaku, Tokachiumi). The recent 7-0 in Aki, in contrast, wasn't against the most gifted around (only one former Makushitan, Kagamio). Kyushu Basho will be the first real test of his abilities.

Homarefuji (23 years old, 179 cm, 148 kg; debut: Hatsu 2008; Aki record: 5-2 from Makushita 55)

Homarefuji had a similar career to Kamei thus far, only with the benefit of starting one basho earlier. Starting in a small, but strong Hatsu cohort he went only 5-2 in Jonokuchi, losing against Fukao and Kei. However, Homarefuji showed that he can beat Fukao (he did so in the Jonidan kettei-sen of Natsu Basho). His biggest success so far was the kettei-sen of Nagoya Basho where he defeated Surugatsukasa (who has just had a KK in the Makushita-joi). Homarefuji had a rather convincing 5-2 in Aki Basho against six rikishi who all have been at least in mid-Makushita before. So I guess that he has a good chance of surviving Kyushu in mid-Makushita himself.

[Peeter 15]

Ryuden - what a great finding! (Whistling...) And last day wins-losses 12-3 ( good last day ) promises for him good future! Not very fast career, but 191 cm & only 119 kg - wow!

[Kaioshoryu 63]

Just wanted to say thank you for this very interesting thread! Hope one of these young talents turns out to be the next japanese yokozuna...

[Barang 0]

These minibios are interesting. Age, weight, height and debut will make much more sense for following these sumotoris. I just wonder if beya makes any difference for their careers.

[Asashosakari 19,309]

Ryuden - what a great finding! (Whistling...) And last day wins-losses 12-3 ( good last day ) promises for him good future! Not very fast career, but 191 cm & only 119 kg - wow!

I just have to point out that people here have been talking about Ryuden for probably over a year now, so he's not some sudden discovery. :-) And "fast" always needs to be put into relation to his age - as Randomitsuki wrote, his makushita debut before turning 18 was the type of thing that should make anyone perk up and take notice, even if it might have taken 2 years from his debut (when guys like Aran who start 7 years older already reach makuuchi).

Oh, and of course Ryuden is back on my aforementioned gradual-improvement track...2-5, 3-4, 4-3, 6-1 means he followed up on his makekoshi(s) by getting an even stronger set of kachikoshi to immediately reach another high rank. (Band playing...) I do hope he puts on a little bit more weight. As talented as he is, reaching juryo may be a tough order with under ~130 kg, given that his style appears to be traditional yori rather than technical.

I just wonder if beya makes any difference for their careers.

Probably; a rising tide lifts all boats, and all that. I don't think it's a coincidence that stables that can provide lots of internal competition (Sakaigawa and Sadogatake come to mind these days) also seem to see their talents develop much better early on. Hard to say whether such effects are persistent or tend to flatline as a talent approaches juryo, though.

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

Here is the fourth installment. I am not sure whether I'll start with part five, as the top 10 rikishi from the list in the opening post are pretty well-known anyway.

Hidenofuji (25 years old, 181 cm, 111 kg; debut: Hatsu 2005; Aki record: 5-2 from Makushita 49)

Hidenofuji has started in ozumou aged 21, and consequently it took him only four basho to make it to Sandanme (he even won a bout against a 16-year old Wakanoho during that time). But then he was stuck for quite a while in Sandanme which is not a good sign if you are already 24. Hatsu 2008 was his breakthrough basho, a 6-1 in high Sandanme with quality wins against Seiro, the "lesser" Mori, and Shibuya. After that, he established himself in Makushita. In Natsu he had nice wins against Terashita, Surugatsukasa, and Sasaki, finishing 4-3. Nagoya was much tougher for him (2-5), but his 5-2 at Aki will bring him back into mid-Makushita. I have the feeling as if he'll be competitive in that banzuke region come Kyushu basho, as Hidenofuji had good results in Aki Basho (e.g. wins against Fukao, Masunoyama, and Gagamaru).

Terashita (24 years old, 188 cm, 134 kg; debut: Haru 2007; Aki record: 4-2-1 from Makushita 39)

Does anyone remember the 30-bout winning streak from Tosayutaka? Well, the one guy who has beaten Tosayutaka before that 30-bout streak was Terashita, back in Natsu 2007 when both had their Jonokuchi debut. Terashita won the Jonokuchi yusho in a very strong field, so it was clear from the get-go that he has some potential. Unfortunately, Terashita is a little injury-prone, and he had to go kyujo on his fourth basho. He came back one basho later by winning the Sandanme yusho in Hatsu 2008 (including wins against two other injury-struck talents, Arawashi and Hakiai). The yusho brought him to Makushita, and he was obviously good enough to get two more small KK. He suffered his first real MK in Nagoya, but came back strong in Aki where he went on a 4-0 rampage with wins against Takaazuma, Gagamaru, and Takahama. Unfortunately, he injured himself again, thereby missing out on an interesting bout against Kyokushuho (whom he had already beaten in Natsu). Further injuries aside, Terashita will probably be a sekitori soon.

Ogata (23 years old, 178 cm, 131 kg; debut: Kyushu 2007; Aki record: 4-3 from Makushita 38)

Ogata will turn 24 in November, so he better keeps winning if he wants to make a lasting impact in ozumou. Sure, going into Aki with a 24-4 record is remarkable, but I fail to see anything sensational in the winning patterns. He started at Kyushu, so there certainly was less strong competition early on. Winning the Jonokuchi yusho in Hatsu was inescapable, and even in his Sandanme yusho in Natsu he had the benefit of being ranked very low in that division, thereby getting a lot of beatable opponents on the way. He won against Hakiai, however, in the kettei-sen of that basho. The real test, however, is Makushita. In his Makushita debut in Nagoya he started 4-0, defeating Sasaki and Ikioi, before dropping to a final score of 5-2. Like Fukao, Aki Basho started in a way that Ogata seemed close to a first MK, but he turned a 1-3 into a KK. Both two of his losses and two of his wins came through hatakikomi, making an assessment of his real potential a little difficult.

Sasaki (21 years old, 188 cm, 119 kg; debut: Haru 2002; Aki record: 6-1 from Makushita 44)

The tall rikishi from Naruto-beya is only 21 years old, but already has more than six years of ozumou experience. Sasaki was off to a fantastic start and had his Sandanme debut as a 16-year old. But it seems as if he had trouble adapting to that division since it took him three and a half year to make it to Makushita. That's the advantage of being so young, even after such a long time you can still be considered a talent. His foray into Makushita did not look that promising (1-6 in his debut), so it took until Kyushu 2007 when he had his breakthrough performance. From Makushita 58 he got a 6-1, winning against rikishi like Ri, Hidenofuji, Keno, and Kasugakuni, and only losing to Aran. Since then he has established himself as a mid-Makushita man waiting for his next breakthrough. This might have happened during Aki. In terms of strength ratings he should have lost against all his opponents but one, but rather than finishing 1-6 he won 6-1, beating young talents Tochitsubasa and Terashita, and middle-aged talent Sotairyu. Only Yotsuguruma could stop him in the seventh bout. That was indeed impressive stuff.

Kyokushuho (20 years old, 191 cm, 120 kg; debut: Natsu 2007; Aki record: 6-1 from Makushita 42)

Some have praised the young Mongolian as the next Yokozuna before he even started into ozumou. The hype was so excessive that his most ardent fans seemed slightly disappointed when he only finished 4-3 upon arriving in mid-Makushita. There was talk about an injury, and in fact Kyokushuho had his first career-MK in Nagoya where he lost to very strong aite early on (Sokokurai, Nakanishi), and against weaker opposition in the second week (Sadanishiki, Tenichi). Whatever was the case in Nagoya, he came back with a vengeance in Aki Basho. He had pretty decent opposition in his bouts, and managed to defeat two opponents where I did not have him as a favorite (Takakoyama, Kasugakuni). His rise to sekitori is only a matter of time, I'd say.

Kazafuzan (24 years old, 184 cm, 167 kg; debut: Kyushu 2003; Aki record: 4-3 from Makushita 15)

Among all rikishi from the former Soviet Union Kazafuzan (a Kazakh) is the least well known although he is probably more gifted than Orora or Gagamaru. Maybe the fact that Kazafuzan has never won any yusho contributes to his relative obscurity. The fact that in 20 out of 28 full basho he finished 3-4 or 4-3 didn't help much either to gain popularity. He started as a 19-year old, and after a very promising start he stuck in Sandanme for more than a year. A highlight basho for him must have been Natsu 2006 where his 6-1 did not only propel him into the heart of Makushita, but also brought confidence-building wins against former and later sekitori like Daiyubu, Wakatsutomu, and Hokutokuni. But then, mid-Makushita seemed to be his personal wall, as he toiled for almost two years in that region. Recently, however, he has become heavier than ever, is on a four-basho KK streak, and he was able to win against solid opponents. In Aki Basho he had his debut in the Makushita-joi, and while his schedule wasn't as hard as it could have been, he finished with a 4-3. If he'll continue at his general pace of banzuke advancement you can see him in Makuuchi some time in 2018...

Shibuya (21 years old, 180 cm, 178 kg; debut: Haru 2003; Aki record: 6-1 from Makushita 24)

Shibuya was just 16 when he had his Jonokuchi debut, and after he finished his first eight basho with a KK, he was still 17, and already in high Sandanme. His first MK was followed by seven more KK in a row, and these brought him into the Makushita-joi even before his 18th birthday. It was no wonder that he usually was near the top of all "hot prospect lists". But then something inexplicable happened to him. His development stalled in 2006 (a 22-20 record, mostly in upper mid-Makushita), and in 2007 his career went downhill decidedly (a 17-25 record in lower mid-Makushita). At the beginning of 2008 he found himself in Sandanme, and since then he upped the pace again, going all KK this year. Throughout the year, he had remarkable wins against solid opposition. His highlight basho was Aki where almost each of his wins came as a surprise to me (especially against Shimoda, Kasugakuni, and Shiratsuka). Shibuya is back in town!

Shiratsuka (24 years old, 192 cm, 190 kg; debut: Haru 2007; Aki record: 5-2 from Makushita 17)

Shiratsuka needed only nine basho to arrive in the Makushita-joi. I guess it's just human nature that such a guy draws much more attention like Shibuya from last paragraph. So one cannot stress often enough how important age is as a factor. Shiratsuka is three years older than Shibuya, and so it wouldn't be entirely surprising if Shibuya turns out to be the better sumotori one day. In any case, Shiratsuka rushed through the banzuke in no time, and his massive frame must have helped him. In fact, it can be quite illuminating to see against which rikishi he received his very few early career losses. Here we have Tosayutaka twice (which is not a shame), Tamadaiki twice and Kyokushuho once (which is no shame, but might indicate that he won't go through the roof). Fast forward to Aki Basho where Shiratsuka nicely recovered from his first career-MK. The 5-2 result was quite solid, but far from spectacular. Next basho he'll be in single-digit Makushita where the competition is much, much stronger IMO. That could be heavy for the heavyweight.

Mochimaru (24 years old, 189 cm, 149 kg; debut: Haru 2000; Aki record: 5-2 from Makushita 16)

This guy is really surprising to me. It took him four years to reach Makushita which is quite a long time even for someone starting aged 15 (yes, of course most rikishi do not make it that far ever, but I am only talking about guys who might become sekitori). Since early 2005, i.e. for another four years he is a Makushita regular never making any remarkable splash. And all of a sudden, at an age where some rikishi are approaching their physical limit, Mochimaru shows considerable improvement. In the last three basho he had an incredible 16-5 record which among current Makushitans was only surpassed by Yotsuguruma, Fukao, and Homarefuji during the same stretch. What's most surprising to me is the fact that I would have bet on a Mochimaru MK probably in Nagoya and most certainly in Aki Basho. Instead, he finished 6-1 in Nagoya, reaching that 8-man kettei-sen for the yusho, and followed with an incredible 5-2 at Aki. He might not have had the strongest possible aite last basho, but you won't get a 5-2 at Makushita 16 by doing terrible sumo. Next basho he'll be in much harder territory, and I'll probably think of him as going 1-6 again. And I would be more than pleased if he defied my prediction just another time.

Kaonishiki (30 years old, 179 cm, 145 kg; debut: Natsu 2001; Aki record: 5-2 from Makushita 15)

As pointed out already, Kaonishiki is 30 years old. But hey, he missed seven basho due to injury. Add another seven to re-gain the banzuke ground that he lost through injury, and we can treat him like a 27-year old veteran among the talents (In a state of confusion...)

In a parallel universe where Kaonishiki was never injured, he might be in Makuuchi, who knows? Just as a little teaser for this thought one should consider that he won the yusho in his Jonokuchi debut by defeating some Georgian guy called Kokkai. After only four basho Kaonishiki (Murata back then) made it from mae-zumo to high Sandanme when a first injury struck him. He then proceeded into mid-Makushita before a second injury threw him back. He then proceeded into the Makushita-joi in 2004, but has lost the oomph to make it any further. Add to that another long absence, and he had to restart from low Sandanme. This brought him to his highlight basho exactly one year ago where he defeated declining Buyuzan, gifted Dewaotori (at least gifted back then), and a young upstart named Tochinoshin. Since then Kaonishiki is holding his ground in the Makushita-joi. I wouldn't be completely surprised if he can make it to Juryo at his somewhat biblical age.

[Sashohitowa 6]

And here comes the third part:

Mankajo (18 years old, 182 cm, 212 kg; debut: Haru 2005; Aki record: 6-1 from Sandanme 60)

When I started to observe lower divisons more closely, I hailed Mankajo as a future sekitori, not taking into account that his quick rise as a 15-year old was due to his massive size. Meanwhile, he is 18, and while I have serious doubts that he can become a sekitori, he will probably be better than Orora (and that kid just got a KK in Makushita). In Nagoya Mankajo went 1-6 from Sandanme 24, but I tend to think that he had a pretty tough schedule there. In contrast, at Aki he had a relatively easy schedule, but his 6-1 is nothing to sneeze at.

So Adere's goat is declared to be safe now?

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

So Adere's goat is declared to be safe now?

The goat is not entirely safe. It's probably true that sheer size brought Mankajo to where he currently is. But taking only the raw numbers, he is still perfectly on course for someone who makes it to Juryo eventually. Although (again going by raw numbers) we'll have to wait until about Natsu 2014 for this event to happen.

[Azumashida 1]

Thanks Randomitsuki for the thread and the mini bios, very valuable stuff!

Obviously some very promising guys missing (such as Masunoyama, Takayasu, Kotookuyama - who actually had a 2-5 now, not a 1-6 as indicated above - or my adoptee Masunofuji) because they won't be at their highest rank for Kyushu but hopefully next time there's going to be 50 talents on a new career high again (including them) so that you can add their mini bios!

[yamaneko 2]

What about ri?

[Barang 0]

Fifty talents sounds boring, how about 47 (四十七士) faithfuls?