Harumafuji (ex-Ama) poll

[Jejima 1,414]

Hi,

Kaiguma has kindly given his blessing on making the above poll on shin-ozeki Harumafuji.

Kaiguma has made a couple of polls in the past years asking whether or not 'Ama' could reach the rank of Ozeki.

The results can be found here:-

mid-2006

2008

Now that he has made Ozeki..... How will he fare in his first year at this rank?

[kaiguma 0]

heh, you didn't need to seek my blessing to do this, but I am flattered that you did.

as I said in our PMs, I have had a bit of trouble dealing with the shikona change and wasn't sure I could bring myself to make a poll titled:

"Can Harumafuji make Yokozuna?" and then run that year after year (On the banzuke...)

I think it is now in better hands! (In a state of confusion...)

I believe 2009 will put Harumafuji solidly on top of the ozeki food chain, taking over 10 wins every basho and averaging at least 11 but remaining ozeki despite his first earnest attempt in Tsunatori following a yusho somewhere in the next 5 basho.

[Sashohitowa 6]

O1E

5

61-65

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

O1E

5

61-65

Hey, shoo! That's my vote! (In a state of confusion...)

[Jejima 1,414]

I am the only one (so far) who believes that he will make it to Yokozuna in 2009.

My reasoning....

The previous two Ozekis from Mongolia were not content to hang around at Ozeki for long. Hakuho was an Ozeki for 7 bashos (including one 0-0-15) before getting his tsunatori. Asashoryu was in even more of a rush - he had only 3 bashos at the rank of Ozeki.

I am assuming that Asashoryu will not be that dominant in 2009 - and may even retire. That would leave just Hakuho and Harumafuji as the top rikishi (although, there are admittedly a number of up-and-coming rikishi nipping at their heels), and Harumafuji is not that far behind Hakuho.

It has been noted that these two are good friends, as well as being fellow countrymen. If push came to shove, and Harumafuji was facing Hakuho - and why not throw Asashoryu into the mix too? - on days 13 and 14, followed by ?Kotomitsuki? on day 15 in a basho where he needed to win all three to get his tsunatori - I would not bet too heavily against it (In a state of confusion...)

Edited December 9, 2008 by Jejima

[Asashosakari 19,650]

Kotooshu and Kotomitsuki looked like a million bucks during their ozeki runs, too. I honestly don't think Ama can be anywhere near Hakuho's level on a consistent basis yet, the last couple of basho notwithstanding.

O1w

4

55-60

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

O1w

4

55-60

Point.

[Jejima 1,414]

Kotooshu and Kotomitsuki looked like a million bucks during their ozeki runs, too.

Kotomitsuki was already old when he went for his Ozeki run - and I think that was his ultimate goal. Kootoshu became the first ever European Ozeki.... and he does not seem to have much 'fire'.

Harumafuji would probably want to emulate the careers of his two Yokozuna countrymen. That means pushing on for Yokozuna.

I honestly don't think Ama can be anywhere near Hakuho's level on a consistent basis yet, the last couple of basho notwithstanding.

Let's compare how the two of them did before being promoted to Ozeki.... ;-)

Hakuho:-				Ama (Harumafuji):-
Jan 2005: K 11-4 - J-Y			Sep 2007:  K 10-5
Mar 2005: S 8-7				Nov 2007:  K 10-5
May 2005:  S 9-6			Jan 2008:  S 9-6
Jul 2005:  S 6-3-6			Mar 2008:  S 8-7
Sep 2005:  M1 9-6			May 2008:  S 9-6
Nov 2005:  K 9-6			Jul 2008:  S 10-5
Jan 2006:  S 13-2 JY			Sep 2008: S 12-3 JY
Mar 2006:  S 13-2 J(D)Y			Nov 2008:  S 13-2 J(D)Y
May 2006:  O3W 14-1 Y (1st)		Jan 2009: O3W (I presume) ?????

Edited December 10, 2008 by Jejima

[Jejima 1,414]

One big difference is age. Ama is older than Hakuho but the latter won his first yusho two and a half years ago.

Another bigger difference is potential. I could see Hakuho making yokozuna when he was in juryo. Some guys just have something special. Harumafuji is pushing the limits of his ability in my opinion and has achieved his maximum potential by reaching ozeki. He may take a couple of yusho but I don't see him doing it in consecutive basho.

Hakuho on the other hand is almost in double figures in terms of yusho and still I feel he hasn't come close to what he can do. Barring injury I wouldn't be surprised to see him take all yusho next year and win over 80 bouts. He is a yokozuna that has the mentality, skill and body (or the shin, gi, tai if you will) to come close to Chiyonofuji and Taiho in terms of pure numbers. Asashoryu had the first two (perhaps) but the wear and tear of his all out style seems to have caught up with his body.

I agree with all that you say - except your middle paragraph.

But, to debate a little more from the opposing point of view...

Looking up in Doitsubase, I see that Harumafuji is not quite a year older than Hakuho, but only joined Ozumo one month before the Yokozuna. So they started on a fairly even basis.

But, one thing that Hakuho had going for him, was his rapid height and weight gain. He went from 180 cm and 80 kg on his maezumo debut to 196 cm and 153.2 kg (last March) - almost 'doubling' himself.

Ama started at 180 cm and 87 kg (so fairly comparable, I guess), but is now 185 cm and 126 kgs - and he only started becoming a sanyaku regular once his fighting weight was over 120 kgs. (Hakuho was already winning a Juryo Yusho with his weight at 135 kgs).

I looked up the details of another former Yokozuna - Chiyonofuji (31 yushos in total). Harumafuji is no Chiyonofuji, but it is interesting to compare stats a little.

Chiyonofuji also started Ozumo on the 'small' side - 177 cm and 71 kg in 1970.

Ignoring a one-basho-only visit to Makunouchi in 1975, it took him 8 years to become a Makunouchi rikishi from 1978 (and he later visited Juyro for one basho in 1979). He only became a sanyaku regular when he got to around the 115 kg and 182 cm mark in 1980. He won his first yusho when he was aged over 25.

Most of his yushos were won when he was at 183 cm and around the 125 kg mark.

Ama is currently taller and younger than this 'peak' of Chiyonofuji, and is around the same weight.

I would not write off his Yokozuna chances, just yet. I believe he has it in him to get a yusho (don't you?), and if he does, then there is a good chance that he may get a consecutive yusho - because on his last three days of such a basho, he is likely to meet Hakuho, Asashoryu (fellow countrymen - and friends?) and an Ozeki, the strongest of whom is currently Kotomitsuki - who is unlikely to be in any yusho race, and would probably have already secured his KK. If in such a circumstance, Harumafuji is 10-2 (or maybe even 9-6?) going into the last three days, I *think* he may have a good chance of winning the last three bouts.

Edited December 10, 2008 by Jejima

[sekihiryu 51]

Harumafuji is no Chiyonofuji

well actually I think he is.

At the end of his career, "the horse" may well be spoken of in the same breath as "the wolf".

The are similar sized - comparatively small, yet incredibly strong and very fierce competitors.

Ama is still improving, he hasn't peaked yet. He progress is the one truly fascinating thing in sumo for me at the moment.

[Asashosakari 19,650]

Kootoshu became the first ever European Ozeki.... and he does not seem to have much 'fire'.

Hindsight is always 20/20. People were a lot more optimistic about Kotooshu's potential at the time than you're acknowledging now. And what does "became the first European Ozeki" have to do with anything, anyway? There's some rule that rikishi from a particular locale have to have certain career potentials? Somebody should have told Wakanosato...

Harumafuji would probably want to emulate the careers of his two Yokozuna countrymen.

So would pretty much every Mongolian rikishi, and a whole lot of Japanese and others, too. What somebody wants and what he's capable of are still two different things. And comparing anybody to the career path taken by Chiyonofuji is a fool's errand, IMHO. Much like the joke goes about economists having successfully predicted nine out of the last three four economic crises, people have probably predicted about seven out of the next zero Chiyonofujis by now (somebody tell me how that "Asashoryu will be active till he's 35" thing is working out sometime), and I have little doubt that Ama's just going to be the next one to "disappoint" if that's the target people are already setting for him.

At any rate, I'll just sign my name to pretty much everything Nishinoshima wrote. Except perhaps that I don't totally think that Ama is incapable of reaching yokozuna - but the notion that this horse is just gonna stampede through the ozeki rank in the next year like Asa and Hakuho did is pretty foreign to me (pun not intended). If you want what I would consider Ama's upside in career terms, I'd have to say Wakanohana III.

Edited December 10, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Jejima 1,414]

Kootoshu became the first ever European Ozeki.... and he does not seem to have much 'fire'.

Hindsight is always 20/20. People were a lot more optimistic about Kotooshu's potential at the time than you're acknowledging now. And what does "became the first European Ozeki" have to do with anything, anyway?

Very true - people were a lot more optimistic about Kotooshu (they thought he had more potential) when he was first promoted to Ozeki. Just because he disappointed does not mean others will. Being the first European Ozeki is a big achievement (IMO).

There's some rule that rikishi from a particular locale have to have certain career potentials? Somebody should have told Wakanosato...

Sorry, I don't understand your point regarding Wakanosato. However, in regards to Harumafuji, I think it is his aim to reach Yokozuna (I don't think he will be content to settle for Ozeki) - whether he gets there or not, is a different matter.

Harumafuji would probably want to emulate the careers of his two Yokozuna countrymen.

So would pretty much every Mongolian rikishi, and a whole lot of Japanese and others, too. What somebody wants and what he's capable of are still two different things. And comparing anybody to the career path taken by Chiyonofuji is a fool's errand, IMHO. Much like the joke goes about economists having successfully predicted nine out of the last three four economic crises, people have probably predicted about seven out of the next zero Chiyonofujis by now (somebody tell me how that "Asashoryu will be active till he's 35" thing is working out sometime), and I have little doubt that Ama's just going to be the next one to "disappoint" if that's the target people are already setting for him.

I agree with what you say here - I think the difference (if I understand your position correctly) is that I think Harumafuji has the ability to fulfil his dreams (he might not) - whereas other rikishi can't.

At any rate, I'll just sign my name to pretty much everything Nishinoshima wrote. Except perhaps that I don't totally think that Ama is incapable of reaching yokozuna - but the notion that this horse is just gonna stampede through the ozeki rank in the next year like Asa and Hakuho did is pretty foreign to me (pun not intended). If you want what I would consider Ama's upside in career terms, I'd have to say Wakanohana III.

I also agree with most of what Nishinoshima says - *but* I think that a) Harumafuji has at least as much potential as Wakanohana III (who became Yokzozuna and won 5 yushos)

and b) that having the only current Yokozuna as fellow countrymen (and good friends?) (when most rikishi are 'foreign' to yourself) is a BIG advantage when wishing to become a Yokozuna yourself.

Some could argue that Wakanohana III was 'helped' to reach Yokozuna because of the 'Futagoyama-factor' prevalent at the time (some of the high ranked rikishi were from his heya - so he did not have to face all the 'top rikishi' at the time) - but I would argue, it is *even* better if the top ranked guys are your fellow countrymen ?and good friends? (in a sport where you are in the minority) and who you have to face *especially* if it is in the crunch time (I.e. the last few days of a basho). In my opinion, this is a *very big* edge.

[Asashosakari 19,650]

Very true - people were a lot more optimistic about Kotooshu (they thought he had more potential) when he was first promoted to Ozeki. Just because he disappointed does not mean others will.

Of course not, but it was data point #3597 in the ongoing demonstration of how almost all erroneous evaluations by fans are overestimates. Leaving aside the specific case of Harumafuji - if I tell about a hypothetical rikishi who became ozeki in his mid-20s, would you expect his career to unfold more like Chiyonofuji's, or more like, say, Wakashimazu's? Or a rikishi who became ozeki at age 28 - most likely career scenario: Kaio or Musoyama?

The realistic answer is pretty obvious in each case (or should be, anyway), but I bet if you asked fans right after those hypothetical rikishi were promoted to ozeki, lots and lots would go with the unlikely best-case scenario. And they'd be wrong 9 times out of 10, or even more often.

However, in regards to Harumafuji, I think it is his aim to reach Yokozuna (I don't think he will be content to settle for Ozeki) - whether he gets there or not, is a different matter.

The very fact that it's an open question should be a good indication that expecting Harumafuji to become yokozuna right in the next year is pretty outlandish. He's just not in the same class of "can't miss" tsuna candidates as Asashoryu and Hakuho were when they came up.

I also agree with most of what Nishinoshima says - *but* I think that a) Harumafuji has at least as much potential as Wakanohana III (who became Yokzozuna and won 5 yushos)

Whoah. I dare say that Wakanohana III (who, let's not forget, became ozeki at two years younger than Ama) didn't particularly overachieve in his career, with the notable and career-shortening event of his actual yokozuna promotion. Even if overshadowed by his brother, he was a truly excellent rikishi in his own right, and if he'd finished his career with, say, 4 yusho and at the ozeki rank, I doubt he'd be considered an overachiever compared to the potential he had had. So let's say 4-5 yusho is fairly appropriate for somebody of Waka's potential - and that's the downside of Harumafuji's career potential, in your estimation?

You're getting close to putting him at the same level as rikishi like Musashimaru and Kitanofuji - and ironically, even those guys needed several years to break through the ozeki rank. (To name another one with a similar yusho count, Akebono of course didn't take years, but he also wasn't blocked by anybody early in his career, neither yokozuna nor strong ozeki.) Is that really where you're envisioning Harumafuji to end up in the next ~5 years? Let's just say that I disagree strongly.

Of course it could happen, but as good as he is, I'd still say his career prospects are closer to Takanohana the elder than to Kitanofuji - to take two guys who were active around the same time, with one resembling Ama physically in pure numbers (Kitanofuji was about 185/135) and the other resembling him as measured against the average makuuchi rikishi - Takanohana's just over 100 kg were about as far below the divisional average as Harumafuji is now.

and b) that having the only current Yokozuna as fellow countrymen (and good friends?) (when most rikishi are 'foreign' to yourself) is a BIG advantage when wishing to become a Yokozuna yourself.

Some could argue that Wakanohana III was 'helped' to reach Yokozuna because of the 'Futagoyama-factor' prevalent at the time (some of the high ranked rikishi were from his heya - so he did not have to face all the 'top rikishi' at the time) - but I would argue, it is *even* better if the top ranked guys are your fellow countrymen ?and good friends? (in a sport where you are in the minority)

The Futa factor throughout Wakanohana's ozeki tenure was four rikishi strong at a minimum in basically every basho (Takanohana, Takanonami, Akinoshima, Takatoriki), and the maegashira ranks were famously weak even at the top, let alone around M5-M6 where Waka's replacement opponents typically came from. That's not meant to contradict my earlier statement that Wakanohana was really, really good, but don't underestimate the influence that the Futa factor had in boosting his numbers even further. I don't think getting to face two "fellow Mongolians" is nearly equivalent to that even if those bouts might take place with good timing - and how much longer is Asashoryu going to be around to enable this scenario anyway? At any rate, the ways things are going, everybody just might be going to be a minority in sanyaku soon, including Japanese rikishi.

[Charlemagne 0]

Voted for Y2E, 6 10+ basho, 66-70 wins.

As for my considerations, I mostly agree with Jejima.

[Doitsuyama 1,192]

I also agree with most of what Nishinoshima says - *but* I think that a) Harumafuji has at least as much potential as Wakanohana III (who became Yokzozuna and won 5 yushos)

Whoah. I dare say that Wakanohana III (who, let's not forget, became ozeki at two years younger than Ama) didn't particularly overachieve in his career, with the notable and career-shortening event of his actual yokozuna promotion. Even if overshadowed by his brother, he was a truly excellent rikishi in his own right, and if he'd finished his career with, say, 4 yusho and at the ozeki rank, I doubt he'd be considered an overachiever compared to the potential he had had. So let's say 4-5 yusho is fairly appropriate for somebody of Waka's potential - and that's the downside of Harumafuji's career potential, in your estimation?

I won't make any Harumafuji predictions here. But I would like to state that Wakanohana indeed looks like a lower end for Harumafuji from the viewpoint of my strength ratings. Wakanohana's highest rating was a bit over 2400 for two basho I believe, a point which Ama had *before* last basho already. After Kyushu Ama's strength rating is much higher than Wakanohana ever had. It might be a fluke but I don't think so as Ama really built the high rating over the last eight basho or so. Wakanohana just had no Hakuho preventing him to win the occasional yusho.

[Jejima 1,414]

Leaving aside the specific case of Harumafuji - if I tell about a hypothetical rikishi who became ozeki in his mid-20s, would you expect his career to unfold more like Chiyonofuji's, or more like, say, Wakashimazu's? Or a rikishi who became ozeki at age 28 - most likely career scenario: Kaio or Musoyama?

I don't know.

The realistic answer is pretty obvious in each case (or should be, anyway), but I bet if you asked fans right after those hypothetical rikishi were promoted to ozeki, lots and lots would go with the unlikely best-case scenario. And they'd be wrong 9 times out of 10, or even more often.

With rikishi making their hatsu-dohyo after 1970, there have been 35 different rikishi that have been promoted to Ozeki, of which 20 (so 57%) have gone on to become Yokozuna. So, if you were to predict that every rikishi (even ones like Dejima!) who was promoted to Ozeki would then go on to become Yokozuna, you would be wrong about 4 times out of 10. (Data gleaned from Doitsubase)

The very fact that it's an open question should be a good indication that expecting Harumafuji to become yokozuna right in the next year is pretty outlandish. He's just not in the same class of "can't miss" tsuna candidates as Asashoryu and Hakuho were when they came up.

Whether or not he is the same class as Asashoryu or Hakuho when they came up to Ozeki does not matter that much regarding my opinion that he has a very good chance to be promoted to Yokozuna. It is my opinion (and I am truly hope that I am wrong), that Asashoryu is past his best. In 2008, Harumafuji and Hakuho faced each other 7 times, including last basho's play-off bout. Hakuho won 4 of those to Harumafuji's 3. I therefore believe that Harumafuji can defeat Hakuho from time-to-time.

Apart from Hakuho - unless Asashoryu does make a strong comeback - I currently see Harumafuji as the second favourite to win any Yusho in 2009. If he wins one yusho, I think he has a good chance of winning a second consecutive yusho (for the previously outlined reasons) - (I think paraphrasing this as the "Yokozunas taking a 'dive'" is much stronger than my intended meaning!)

Whoah. I dare say that Wakanohana III (who, let's not forget, became ozeki at two years younger than Ama) didn't particularly overachieve in his career, with the notable and career-shortening event of his actual yokozuna promotion. Even if overshadowed by his brother, he was a truly excellent rikishi in his own right, and if he'd finished his career with, say, 4 yusho and at the ozeki rank, I doubt he'd be considered an overachiever compared to the potential he had had. So let's say 4-5 yusho is fairly appropriate for somebody of Waka's potential - and that's the downside of Harumafuji's career potential, in your estimation?

I think Harumafuji has the potential to win 4 or more yusho, yes. (Please note 'the potential' - I am not saying that he will for certain.)

You're getting close to putting him at the same level as rikishi like Musashimaru and Kitanofuji

Kitanofuji won 10 yushos. 'Maru won 12 yushos. Wakanohana III won 5 yushos. Kitanofuji and 'Maru won double or more the number of yushos that Wakanohana III won. That is like saying 'X rikishi has at least the same potential as Musashimaru' is close to 'putting rikishi X on the same level as Takanohana or Asashoryu.' It isn't really (IMO at least.)

- and ironically, even those guys needed several years to break through the ozeki rank. (To name another one with a similar yusho count, Akebono of course didn't take years, but he also wasn't blocked by anybody early in his career, neither yokozuna nor strong ozeki.) Is that really where you're envisioning Harumafuji to end up in the next ~5 years? Let's just say that I disagree strongly.

What I originally envisaged was only that Harumafuji has a good chance to be promoted to Yokozuna in 2009. (He might not, but I think he has a good chance). (Okay, since then I have also suggested that he has at least the potential to do as well as Wakanohana III, but that is it.)

Of course it could happen, but as good as he is, I'd still say his career prospects are closer to Takanohana the elder than to Kitanofuji - to take two guys who were active around the same time, with one resembling Ama physically in pure numbers (Kitanofuji was about 185/135) and the other resembling him as measured against the average makuuchi rikishi - Takanohana's just over 100 kg were about as far below the divisional average as Harumafuji is now.

You could well be right - but I don't think that contradicts my opinion that Harumafuji has a good chance of getting promoted to Yokozuna in 2009.

The Futa factor throughout Wakanohana's ozeki tenure was four rikishi strong at a minimum in basically every basho (Takanohana, Takanonami, Akinoshima, Takatoriki), and the maegashira ranks were famously weak even at the top, let alone around M5-M6 where Waka's replacement opponents typically came from. That's not meant to contradict my earlier statement that Wakanohana was really, really good, but don't underestimate the influence that the Futa factor had in boosting his numbers even further. I don't think getting to face two "fellow Mongolians" is nearly equivalent to that even if those bouts might take place with good timing - and how much longer is Asashoryu going to be around to enable this scenario anyway? At any rate, the ways things are going, everybody just might be going to be a minority in sanyaku soon, including Japanese rikishi.

In his tsunatori basho, Wakanohana III fought already heavily MK M4W Tamakasuga on day 13, Yokozuna Akebono on day 14 and Ozeki Musashimaru on day 15 needing to win all three bouts to guarantee his promotion to Yokozuna. Neither Akebono or 'Maru were still in the Yusho race when they met him. The Futa-factor was almost certainly the reason why he faced Tamakasuga - but the two Hawai'ians were daunting obstacles in those final three days.

My scenario is that Hakuho has already won a Yusho, and is going into the final three days of the subsequent basho (needing all three to secure his Yokozunahood) facing day 13 Asashoryu (possibly already out of the Yusho race), day 14 Hakuho (his very good friend, apparently) and day 15 Kotomitsuki (also probably out of the yusho race). Of course Tamakasuga is an easier aite in such a situation than Kotomitsuki - but I would prefer to be in Hakuho's 'shoes' to meet two fellow countrymen (and friends?) than the Hawai'ians, Akebono (who had a rivalry with Takanohana, and so probably would not want to see Wakanohana promoted) and Musashimaru.

To summarise, I think Harumafuji has the potential to become a Yokozuna in 2009, and he has (IMO) a good chance of doing so. I am not saying that he will definitely become a Yokozuna.

I think we are not too far apart in our viewpoints. If I understand correctly, you think it is unlikely that he will make it Yokozuna in 2009 - but will preform credibly as an Ozeki - but the possibility that he can be promoted should not be ruled out altogether.

If this is the case, then neither of us are at the extremes of 'become Yokozuna/not becoming Yokozuna in 2009' but rather at different places somewhere in the mid-section. ;-)

Edited December 11, 2008 by Jejima

[Asashosakari 19,650]

I think we are not too far apart in our viewpoints. If I understand correctly, you think it is unlikely that he will make it Yokozuna in 2009 - but will preform credibly as an Ozeki - but the possibility that he can be promoted should not be ruled out altogether.

Depends on one's definition of "credibly" - I did vote for 56-60 wins, i.e. a bit under 10 per basho. Results of, say, 11/11/10/10/9/8 (not in that order, of course) would be perfectly credible to me, given what I consider Harumafuji to be for the next year (a second strongish ozeki along with Kotomitsuki), but I have a feeling that you'd consider such a 2009 disappointing.

In any case, he's just gone from "Ama, that undersized upstart who's upsetting all the big names with trickery and stellar technique" to "Harumafuji, the new guy in the establishment who everybody wants to beat to prove themselves". It's not all just about Harumafuji's level of motivation going forward, but also that of his opponents. I'd honestly be surprised if he posts more than one 12+ win basho next year.

Gonna be fun to look back at this thread 12 months from now, anyway. ;-)

Edited December 11, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

I'm curious how Ama's strength rating looks compared to, say, Futahaguro. If Doitsuyama would care to oblige, that is.

[Doitsuyama 1,192]

I'm curious how Ama's strength rating looks compared to, say, Futahaguro. If Doitsuyama would care to oblige, that is.

Now Kitao certainly was stronger than Wakanohana with 8 basho higher than 2400 and a peak of 2479 - and all that while having his last basho at an age of 24 years and 3 months. Ama actually was 4 months older than that last basho. Due to the untimely intai the comparison will always have to end here...

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

Too bad about the great body Kitao had. He had good records against all the good wrestlers in his time, I wonder why he decided to throw it all away. Anyway, thanks for the prompt response.

[Kintamayama 45,518]

Too bad about the great body Kitao had. He had good records against all the good wrestlers in his time, I wonder why he decided to throw it all away. Anyway, thanks for the prompt response.

You're kidding, I hope..

[Asashosakari 19,650]

Some things I forgot to respond to before:

Whoah. I dare say that Wakanohana III (who, let's not forget, became ozeki at two years younger than Ama) didn't particularly overachieve in his career, with the notable and career-shortening event of his actual yokozuna promotion. Even if overshadowed by his brother, he was a truly excellent rikishi in his own right, and if he'd finished his career with, say, 4 yusho and at the ozeki rank, I doubt he'd be considered an overachiever compared to the potential he had had. So let's say 4-5 yusho is fairly appropriate for somebody of Waka's potential - and that's the downside of Harumafuji's career potential, in your estimation?

I think Harumafuji has the potential to win 4 or more yusho, yes. (Please note 'the potential' - I am not saying that he will for certain.)

I agree that he could well have the potential for a 4-yusho career, but even being charitable I'd consider that the mean of his potentials range, not the minimum, which is what you seemed to imply - or in other words, that you think he's a good bet (>>50%) to win more than 4, while I think 1 or 2 is just as likely as 5 or 6. (Okay, in actuality I think 1 or 2 is much more likely than 5 or 6, but for the sake of argument...) In any case, a 4-yusho guy is still extremely unlikely to just waltz through the ozeki rank in his first year.

The realistic answer is pretty obvious in each case (or should be, anyway), but I bet if you asked fans right after those hypothetical rikishi were promoted to ozeki, lots and lots would go with the unlikely best-case scenario. And they'd be wrong 9 times out of 10, or even more often.

With rikishi making their hatsu-dohyo after 1970, there have been 35 different rikishi that have been promoted to Ozeki, of which 20 (so 57%) have gone on to become Yokozuna. So, if you were to predict that every rikishi (even ones like Dejima!) who was promoted to Ozeki would then go on to become Yokozuna, you would be wrong about 4 times out of 10.

I can't really follow those numbers; excluding Harumafuji I'm counting 15 ozeki and 12 (not 20) yokozuna with hatsu-dohyo since 1970. And I'm not a fan of just aggregating everything like that - my whole point was that the individual age and makeup of a rikishi matter, and your count combines everybody from Takanohana to Kotomitsuki. Anyway, here's the whole list with Harumafuji included (numbers given are age in years and months at the time of the ozeki promotion, and number of ozeki basho if promoted to yokozuna):

Takanohana

[Gusoyama 104]

I'm expecting a very Tochiazuma-like career as Ozeki for Harumafuji. Some outstanding bashos, a few yusho, and several spoiler-role bashos, where he gets 11-12 wins, and has a part in the yusho decision, i.e beating the yokozunas.

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

Too bad about the great body Kitao had. He had good records against all the good wrestlers in his time, I wonder why he decided to throw it all away. Anyway, thanks for the prompt response.

You're kidding, I hope..

Not kidding at all. I looked at his records against the big boys of his time, also keeping in mind he had a hulking 195cm 150+ kg body, and he got in trouble with his oyakata and whatnot. Are you telling me it wasn't his fault or he didn't have potential? Please clarify.

[Doitsuyama 1,192]

Too bad about the great body Kitao had. He had good records against all the good wrestlers in his time, I wonder why he decided to throw it all away. Anyway, thanks for the prompt response.

You're kidding, I hope..

Not kidding at all. I looked at his records against the big boys of his time, also keeping in mind he had a hulking 195cm 150+ kg body, and he got in trouble with his oyakata and whatnot. Are you telling me it wasn't his fault or he didn't have potential? Please clarify.

Well... I'd say the wording decided to throw it all away is at the very least misleading.