Ozeki Back-Scratchers' Club

[Asashosakari 19,028]

Edit: I wouldn't be surprised to see Taikai go kyujo tomorrow rather than face Hak.

Well, if last basho's Kotomitsuki is the applicable pattern here (and shame on me for not noticing that possibility yesterday), Taikai is losing against Hakuho tomorrow and then giving up a fusen to Asashoryu on Day 11 or 12 to keep the yusho race fair. (Sigh...)

Kudos though to the torikumi makers for at least removing Taikai from the customary Day 13-15 mini-tourney early on...looks like Kaio is taking over slot #4 against the yokozunas and Kotooshu.

[Jejima 1,356]

I could have told you Kaio would win his match vs. Chiyotaikai, and I see Doitsuyama explained why.

You do realise (I hope) the irony in your comment?

[Jejima 1,356]

So I'd like kindly to ask you, conspiracy theorists and their advocates - can you pleas be more specific in your OBSC-driven predictions? Say - who (according to the theory) will win against who - so that then we can judge and make conclusions. Otherwise I see no value of this thread.

I have :-)

and am now 1-2 down in my predictions (Sigh...)

Once more (just in case), I have to state, this is ALL tongue-in-cheek on my part (I.e. I am joking).

[Jakusotsu 5,877]

So I'd like kindly to ask you, conspiracy theorists and their advocates - can you pleas be more specific in your OBSC-driven predictions? Say - who (according to the theory) will win against who - so that then we can judge and make conclusions. Otherwise I see no value of this thread.

This reminds me of last Kyushu Basho when we had a similar discussion. In fact, Gernobono was very much spot on with all his predictions. At the German forum, he correctly predicted all Ozeki/Yokozuna results for the final five days in advance, which earned him a lot of flak from the purists.

Edited March 23, 2009 by Jakusotsu

[Bilu 0]

First, the whole idea for the existence of the club is based on the presumption that the current Ozeki group are too weak to earn a honest kachi-koshi by themselves, so therefore need favors from each other. This requires a very unique situation, where

Let's take these one by one:

a) all the ozeki (or at least enough of them) are such "weak ones"

Well, this one doesn't need an answer, does it? None of them except Osh in May 2008 has won a Yusho in the last 120 years.

b) none of them is significantly stronger than the others (then he wouldn't be eager to give away losses, since he won't need the favor back), and none of them will be significantly weaker than the others (then he won't be in position to return the favors)

This is also quite true:

Osh - except for his 14-1 mentioned above, when was the last time he won more than 10?

Answer: November.... 2005. Thing is - he was a sekiwake back then (he was promoted right after this basho).

Mickey - when was the last time he won more than 11?

Answer: July....... 2007. Incidentally, he was a... sekiwake(!) back then and was promoted right after.

Chiyotaikai - won more than 10 only twice (11 both times) during the last 5 years.

Kaio - last time he won more than 10 is Nov. 2004.

Harumafuji - I'm leaving him out, as he's fresh and, most likely, not an OBSC member.

So from this point of view I can agree that Kaio and Chiyotaikai have similar performance recently, but why you (or the devil you advocate of) are so eager to put the Kotos in that club? Kotomitsuki is in his first MK for years, and Kotooshu had just two as Ozeki (the second one a year ago).

Now, let's take the MK persepective (last 3 years - 18 bashos):

Osh - 2 MK, 6 times 8-7, 6 times 9-6

Mickey (since 2007/09 - 9 bashos) - 1 MK, 3 times 8-7, 1 time 9-6

Chiyotaikai - 3 MK, 3 Times 8-7, 7 times 9-6

Kaio - 3 MK, 7 times 8-7, 5 times 9-6

Second, the backscratching-prediction statements (at least the way I read them) sound quite vague.

This is because Jejima got a bit carried away this time. Classic OBSC theory is more concise and its predictions are almost 100% accurate (e.g. Gernobono predictions mentioned in post above).

[Edit]

And two more comments:

1. Mickey has a slightly better record than the rest. However, he's dragged in to help his heya-mate.

2. Its interesting to note how many times did any of the Ozekis scored 7-8 (in the last 3 years). Bear in mind - the 4 of them had 19 times 8-7 in the past 3 years.

The answer:

Once. Chiyotaikai in March 2007.

Edited March 23, 2009 by Bilu

[Sokkenaiyama 80]

Yeah, I know Doits is a purist, but he hit the nail on the head, even though he might not actually believe that theory and thinks Kaio won because he's the better rikishi, which is also true in this case. OBSC is real, despite some not being able to get used to the idea.

[Bilu 0]

..And just to hammer this nail down, here are some numbers of Ozekis of the near past:

Takanonami (Ozeki in 1994-1999):

High: 2 times 14-1, 8 times 12-3, 5 times 11-4

Low: 5 MK, 8 times 9-6, 4 times 8-7

Kaio (2000/09-2004/11 - 26 bashos)

High: 4 times 13-2, 4 times 12-3, 5 times 11-4

Low: 6 MK, 1 time 9-6, 0 times 8-7, 1 time 7-8

Chiyotaikai (1999/03-2004-03 - 31 bashos)

High: 1 time 14-1, 2 times 13-2, 2 times 12-3, 6 times 11-4

Low: 5 MK, 3 times 9-6, 1 time 8-7, 1 time 7-8

These 3 had much better high scores.

It's interesting to note, that they also had more MKs, but far less 9-6 and 8-7.

Edited March 23, 2009 by Bilu

[Jejima 1,356]

I think part of my problem was that I was determined to predict something for each all-ozeki bout this basho.

Today's bouts were tricky - and normally, I would have passed. But because I felt I owed a prediction (after having started this silly thread) I did.

If you read far back enough in this thread I actually predicted 'taikai would lose to his Ozeki foes - as I had him down (originally) as alreay accepting his MK fate (due to two Yokozuna bouts) - I was swayed by his face after his win on day 8. Maybe my mistake? Others weren't (Sigh...)

Harumafuji (so far) does not seem to be a member of this club - so my other prediction could have gone either way. I had to make some outlandish story for this bout to predict it, as they were both evenly tied and their future foes were similar. I did, and I was wrong.

I will continue to try to predict this basho (just for fun) future all-ozeki bouts (based on this silly theory) - in the same manner of Chuck's crystal ball of yore, and I fully expect/hope to get at least half of them wrong :-)

Thankfully tomorrow there are none - so a breathing space (Band playing...)

[Sashohitowa 6]

@Bilu:

So now the theory is that the Ozeki's back scratching is involved not only when the help was needed (kadoban situation), but in every case of scoring below 10-5..

Sorry guys, just hard for me to follow your points...

[Gusoyama 99]

Jezz, if you insist on splitting the yaocho hairs, come on over to the Sumotalk chat. Your theories above are outlandish, I could have told you Kaio would win his match vs. Chiyotaikai, and I see Doitsuyama explained why.

Saying a healthy Kaio at 6-2 will beat an unhealthy Chiyotaikai at 2-6 is about as noteworthy as saying the sun will come up in the morning. No "back scratching" necessary.

[Sokkenaiyama 80]

I didn't say Kaio won because Chiyotaikai let him, read my post more carefully. I only said that Jezz's scenario was wrong for the reasons Doitsuyama stated.

By the way, you have a nice hat there. Can I borrow it from time time to time?

[Bilu 0]

@Bilu:

So now the theory is that the Ozeki's back scratching is involved not only when the help was needed (kadoban situation), but in every case of scoring below 10-5..

Sorry guys, just hard for me to follow your points...

No, the theory can be stated roughly as:

If one of the two Ozekis needs the win MUCH more than the other - he'll win.

If the above condition isn't met - the outcome cannot be predicted.

All the stats just proves that:

- The current Ozeki crop is mediocre (if not less than that).

- None of them is significantly above the others.

- Their results in the last 3 years are not at par with results expected from Ozekis (i.e. who do not scratch backs).

All the above was written TIC, of course. (Sigh...)

Edited March 23, 2009 by Bilu

[HenryK 38]

The back-scratching typically goes on in the last 3-4 days, when everybody's needs are a bit clearer.

[Xris 2]

The back-scratching typically goes on in the last 3-4 days, when everybody's needs are a bit clearer.

I) Of course at the begining they try to rack up as many wins as necessary in case of ... they get a good score (happened once for Kotoosho) and ... they can give up some wins to the others.

II) I'm not saying that Chiyotakai could have won against Kaio, but that he doesn't go kyuyo so that he can give free wins. He will stay till the end, or at least until Kotmitsuki.

III) Finally of course the ozekis are pathetic (Harumafuji is not yet in the club, but he is going there fast) so these types of results are bound to happen. I'm not sure this is an unusual situation, and I remember when Musoyama was failing, he got surprising good results against his fellow Kaio. So maybe friendship helps, maybe motivation? I don't know for sure but I'm certainly thinking maybe it's true.

[Asashosakari 19,028]

I'm not sure this is an unusual situation, and I remember when Musoyama was failing, he got surprising good results against his fellow Kaio.

Ah, memories...Musoyama lost 7 of his last 8 bouts against Kaio (and gave up 2 fusenpai in addition, too). The one win admittedly came in big fashion, rescuing Musoyama from kadoban on Day 15 of Natsu 2003, but I don't think that alone rises quite to "surprising good results" status.

[Gusoyama 99]

I didn't say Kaio won because Chiyotaikai let him, read my post more carefully. I only said that Jezz's scenario was wrong for the reasons Doitsuyama stated.

By the way, you have a nice hat there. Can I borrow it from time time to time?

To speculate that there is any foul play at all in a 6-2[30] vs 2-6[19] matchup is spurious at best, and more likely loonier than a pocketful of Canadian change. Correlation does not imply causation, and even the correlation in this case is weak.

[Sasanishiki 57]

II) I'm not saying that Chiyotakai could have won against Kaio, but that he doesn't go kyuyo so that he can give free wins. He will stay till the end, or at least until Kotmitsuki.

At 2-7 Chiyotaikai stil has a chance of KK, however slim. I don't think we can say that he is sticking around to give free wins at the moment. If he was something like 2-11 and still hanging on to last out the basho then we might question his motives.

[Zingo 0]

The phenomenon of OBSC is obvious to me since these guys, typically, are fighting to preserve what they

[Sashohitowa 6]

II) I'm not saying that Chiyotakai could have won against Kaio, but that he doesn't go kyuyo so that he can give free wins. He will stay till the end, or at least until Kotmitsuki.

Then why he didn't do like this in Hatsu 2008? (Censored...)

...I'm out of this topic - it's not a discussion, it's just too "yellow".......

[Zingo 0]

Since it

[Jejima 1,356]

Just one all-ozeki bout today (on day 11),

Kotomitsuki (6-4) vs Harumafuji (6-4)

I'd better point out straight away that this bout almost certainly doesn't fall into the OBSC theory because both have an equal record, and both are still fighting for their KK. (Also it currently looks as if Harry hasn't paid his membership subs).

Their head-to-head records are 9-11 in Harry's favour, with Harry having won the last three. Harry must be feeling pumped up after having just defeated Yokozuna Asashoryu, whereas Miki lost yesterday to Komusubi Goeido....

I think on paper, the bout should be slightly in Ama's favour before we consider the OBSC theory...

But anyways, as I said I was going to try to predict each ozeki bout using the OBSC theory this basho, so here goes....

Harry and Kotomitsuki's last bout was last basho on day 11 when 'Miki was already heavily MK (he pulled out the following day), and Harry was in serious danger of having an MK basho in his shin-ozeki basho..... I.e. their last bout could have been made to fit into the absurd theory.... So, does Harry now 'owe' a win to Miki?

Let's have a look at their foes for the remainder of the basho...

Kotomitsuki:

Today = Harumafuji

Asashoryu, Baruto, plus two out of (?Chiyotaikai? or ?Yoshikaze? or ?Aminishiki? or ?Takekaze?)

Baruto and Asashoryu look tricky. Taikai (OBSC) would possibly be preferable to any replacement, should he kyujo - but none of the non-sanyaku aite look too scary. 8 wins still look likely, even without a win today.

Harumafuji:

Today = Kotomitsuki

Hakuho, Kaio, plus two out of... (?Chiyotaikai? or ?Miyabiyama? or ?Tokitenku? or ?Takekaze? or ?Homasho?)

Harry should be able to take any two of the ?? rikishi - although Homasho could cause him some problems with the form he is showing this basho... So his KK also looks more likely than not.

So, once again, very difficult to predict using the OBSC theory - which this bout almost certainly doesn't....

But, I'll go with Kotomitsuki to win, because a) he is kadoban, and so needs the win more, and b) (this one is really TIC) because Harumafiji defeated him last basho, when he really needed the win, and Miki was already MK (so pay-back time). [before anyone else mentions it - yes I know Miki was injured then, and just about anyone could have defeated him last basho, so no need for any 'theory' to be at play.] and c) that would be the greater upset (I think) - but only by a few % points - so very slightly more 'daring' for me to pick.

Finally, please remember this is all for fun, and should not be taken seriously.

Oh.... I also think that if Taikai is scheduled to fight either of these two rikishi for day 12, then I will need another cup of coffee, and possibly another rethink about this day 11 bout. ;-)

[Jejima 1,356]

Harumafuji won in a very spirited bout. So I got that one wrong too (Sign of approval...)

So, I am now 1-3 in predictions.

But it looks very much as if Harry is not yet a member of the OBSC.

[Bilu 0]

Harumafuji won in a very spirited bout. So I got that one wrong too (Sign of approval...)

So, I am now 1-3 in predictions.

But it looks very much as if Harry is not yet a member of the OBSC.

He is not...

Your last two predicitions has nothing to do with the OBSC. Myabe you should move them to another thread (Sign of approval...)

Anyway, not a lot of need for OBSC this basho: Kaio already KK, Osh needs just one more.

However, if Mickey faces Taikai needing a win for KK - then you should get your motor running..

[Sokkenaiyama 80]

Kotooshu will be my #1 pick in all possible games tomorrow. Analyze that, Jezz.

[Bilu 0]

Kotooshu will be my #1 pick in all possible games tomorrow. Analyze that, Jezz.

Ooops.. missed this one! My money on Osh, too.