Will Tochiazuma win Yokozuna promotion in Jan '04

[Zuikakuyama 1]

This poll may be a bit early in the game with the injury situation not fully known, but what the heck. (Yawning...)

It would be also interesting to see what everyone's opinions are with respect to the qualifications needed to win promotion.

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

"12 wins and less" makes it difficult to answer this poll honestly, despite the huge number of choices... Personally I think Tochiazuma will be promoted with a 12-3 yusho, but no chance with an 11-4 yusho...

Anyway, a 13-2 playoff loss would in my mind also be the lower limit for his promotion... So, what to answer?

Well, I went with 12-3 and less yusho, but it's a difficult poll to know what to answer on...

(Yawning...)

[Zuikakuyama 1]

Sorry if I didnt make it clear enough, but it is my feeble attempt at combining 2 questions.

The first is your guess on Tochiazuma's results in January.

Once you decided what his results will be then I guess you you would then decide whether that result is enough to win promotion.

So if you guessed 11-4, then you would either vote yes or no on promotion, and so on for the other possible win-loss records.

[Fujisan 533]

Well I must say Tochiazuma has gone up in my estimation since his recent victory but not enough that I can see him winning the next one.

[Jesinofuji 11]

13 wins and hes in, yusho or not.

12 wins or less with no yusho, hes not in.

12 win yusho and there'll be fighting.

[QttP 0]

12 win yusho and there'll be fighting.

No, there won't. 12-3 yusho = 100% promotion

[Jesinofuji 11]

12 win yusho and there'll be fighting.

No, there won't. 12-3 yusho = 100% promotion

Don't say that to Rijicho!

[QttP 0]

12 win yusho and there'll be fighting.

No, there won't. 12-3 yusho = 100% promotion

Don't say that to Rijicho!

Allright, I won't.

[Fujisan 533]

If he wins the yusho he will be promoted whatever his record,I would bet money on it but he wont win it.

[Naifuzan 1]

The competition is pretty strong and I dont think he'll manage to win another one.

Also, having the spotlight on you seem to have a negative effect on most rikishi.

[Hashira 0]

I would love to see it happen, but i just don't think it will. i think hatsu will see a resurgence from taikai, and a strong basho from asashoryu. i wouldn't be surprised to see kaio do well, either. My theory is that the 'next-yokozuna' race has been between kaio and chiyotaikai for a long time, and now that they see tochiazuma fkying past them, they'll wake up, and start plowing through their opponents. just a theory...but i don't think i'll be taking tochiazuma in any games in hatsu.

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

My prediction is 11-4 with mostly narrow losses. Jun-yusho at 12-3, yusho at 13-2. Too bad.

Kotoseiya The Pahanilmanlintu

[Jesinofuji 11]

12 win yusho and there'll be fighting.

No, there won't. 12-3 yusho = 100% promotion

Don't say that to Rijicho!

Allright, I won't.

Because if Rijicho, former Yokozuna Kitanoumi and head of NSK, if he hasn't already, is going to insist that 13 wins are necessary for promotion. He has been pushing to move away from the 2 consecutive Yusho requirement in favor of a 2 consecutive 13 win basho requirement. Remember that when Kaio won his 12-3 Yusho this year in Nagoya he stated that this wasn't enough for a Yokozuna promotion run even if he won Aki. Certain members of YDC wanted to part with Rijicho and give Kaio promotion with a 14-1 or better Yusho. Rijicho disagreed with even this. But 13-2 from Kaio (thus a 12-3 followed by a 13-2: 25 wins in 2 basho) was generally accepted as not being enough.

Still I think there will be a dispute should Tochiazuma win a 12-3 Yusho. Elements of Japanese society would really like to have a Yokozuna other than Asashoryu, esp. a Japanese Yokozuna. To many of the middle-aged Japanese Sumo fans, Takanohana's retirement left a void in Sumo, and they are looking for another hero. They tolerated Musashimaru, but tend not to like Asashoryu, claiming that he lacks hinkaku yadda yadda... There's going to be alot of pressure to give Azuma the tsuna, but the powerful Rijicho won't budge.

If he wins 13 but doesn't get the Yusho, Rijicho will call it a Yusho equivalent performance and reccoment promotion. Some YDC member might want 2 consecutive Yushos but most will not part with Rijicho in this situation.

[Zentoryu 154]

Because if Rijicho, former Yokozuna Kitanoumi and head of NSK, if he hasn't already, is going to insist that 13 wins are necessary for promotion.

But the Rijicho tends to alter his opinoins with the wind. Come basho time, I can promise you that he will likely say that a 12 win Yusho will be enough, especially if Tochiazuma manages to beat Asashoryu and or his fellow Ozeki. He has done this before and likely will do it again (Kitanoumi I mean).

Edited December 2, 2003 by Zentoryu

[Zenjimoto 40]

I would be IMMEASURABLY surprised if Tochiazuma wins the Yusho and DOESN'T get promoted, 12-3 or not. With a 11-4, I can see it being up for discussion, but hey - who the heck wins yushos with 11-4's anyways? Would be pretty freaky...

Everybody wants a Japanese Yokozuna, even Asashoryu. As such, I think as long as Tochiazuma doesnt suddenly remember his form from the 10 or so basho before last one, I think he'll get all the necessary breaks to make it happen. Nothing better could happen so sumo right now. So it probably will ;-)

And yes, I am insinuating. (Laughing...)

Edited December 2, 2003 by Zenjimoto

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

(...) who the heck wins yushos with 11-4's anyways? Would be pretty freaky...

Tochiazuma Sr (Hatsu 1972). And naturally Musashimaru's kettei-sen yusho seven years ago.

11-4 (with or without kettei-sen) is such a rare happening, I wouldn't call it a yusho (or equivalent) in the context of yokozuna promotion.

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

They tolerated Musashimaru, but tend not to like Asashoryu, claiming that he lacks hinkaku yadda yadda...

As if Asashoryu had given anyone a reason to think he exudes hinkaku?

[Jesinofuji 11]

If he got 12-3 he might be promoted, but it wouldn't be because he earned it. It would just be because of circumstance. It would not be something that happened because of what he accomplished on the dohyo, no it would be because he was fortunate that he was in a basho where nobody else could post 13-2 or better, and because of the desire for a Japanese Yokozuna. This would appease the Sumo conservatives for the time being but would in the long ruun be damaging to the rank and to Sumo. So then would they promote the next Ozeki after Tochi that made 25 in 2 as well? Would it be a one time thing, or a permnent lowering of the bar? And what if Tochi were not to live up to the rank? The promotion would be called a mistake, he would be known as a paper-Yokozuna, the token-Japanese Yokozuna.

For the love of the Sumo gods! Don't do anything that you might end up regretting later!

Surely there must be others in NSK that don't want this to happen, but the characters that make up TDC could be described as loopy, and yes I do like his chances at 12-3 Yusho. But I'm not calling it 100%, nay 70% is my estimate.

Here's whats going to happen. Tochi is training like a madman in preparation for the all important basho. He'll get up onto the dohyo focused --he's been around long enough to take his matches a day at a time and not let nervousness take over. He will be in perfect shape to win the Yusho and take his tsuna. But, even when in perfect form, mentally and physically, upsets happen. He'll do everything right, but still end up suffering a couple nasty losses in the first week, but rally and march into the crunch zone at say 9-2. He'll still be in the running, but after conceding a mawashi grip to Kaio, his chances will be crippled. Then he will face Taikai, knowing the he must now be perfect to have a chance, he will step up to the dohyo showing a bit of timidness. He mattas. Then looking anxious as ever he resets and prepares for a mean-looking taikai charge. He henkas! But this time Taikai is ready for it, adjusts his movement and easily pushes Azuma out. No, I take it back. If Taikai hasn't figured out henka by now, he wont in hatsu either. Lets back up--the henka works beautifully and Azuma walks into senshuraku 11-3. Shoryu however at 13-1 has already clinched the Yusho. They do battle and the Yokozuna executes a beautiful tsuriotoshi.

[Jesinofuji 11]

They tolerated Musashimaru, but tend not to like Asashoryu, claiming that he lacks hinkaku yadda yadda...

As if Asashoryu had given anyone a reason to think he exudes hinkaku?

He's getting better. He did a great job in the Hinkaku department in Kyushu dontcha think?

[Fujisan 533]

Heres my prophecy in complete contrast to Jesinofuji-Theres a big deal being made of Tochiazumas pre basho training but come the basho it will all be hot air as Tochiazuma has a mediocre basho and nothing more.

[Manekineko 200]

Kotoseiya The Pahanilmanlintu

Please translate!

(Laughing...) , I know...

[Fujisan 533]

Correction from my last post(Edit wont work with my isp)-

I dont know what I thought Jesinofuji was saying but rereading his post I actually agree with him,not disagree.Hatsu is Asas Yusho.

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

Heres my prophecy in complete contrast to Jesinofuji-Theres a big deal being made of Tochiazumas pre basho training but come the basho it will all be hot air as Tochiazuma has a mediocre basho and nothing more.

But then again, you would ALWAYS say that, wouldn't you? (Laughing...)

That's why this is such a difficult question for those of us (probably all of us, more or less) with an opinion about someone... We always believe some rikishi will do good and some rikishi do bad... (Applauding...)

Anyway, I think Tochiazuma is now back to his old form and more and will have a record of at least 12-3 in Hatsu. It remains to be seen whether that is enough.

Of course, I have said some variation of that about Tochiazuma since about Hatsu 1997 ;-)

Edited December 2, 2003 by Yubiquitoyama

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

I would be IMMEASURABLY surprised if Tochiazuma wins the Yusho and DOESN'T get promoted, 12-3 or not. With a 11-4, I can see it being up for discussion, but hey - who the heck wins yushos with 11-4's anyways? Would be pretty freaky...

Everybody wants a Japanese Yokozuna, even Asashoryu. As such, I think as long as Tochiazuma doesnt suddenly remember his form from the 10 or so basho before last one, I think he'll get all the necessary breaks to make it happen. Nothing better could happen so sumo right now. So it probably will (Applauding...)

And yes, I am insinuating. ;-)

Does the Kyokai REALLY have any history of this behaviour you obviously believe so much in? To substantially lower demands when needed (which most of us see as a given, but doesn't seem to be that common, really).

Or are you even insinuating that they would fix matches so that Tochiazuma DOES get what is needed, since it's for the good of the Kyokai? (Laughing...).

Please give me some references so that I have something to compare with. (Laughing...)

[Zuikakuyama 1]

I tend to think that any yusho wtih 12 wins or more will be enough to win promotion. The rules are pretty clear laid out, 2 yushos and you're in, and I dont think anyone could criticize a promotion based on such a result. The chances of a 11-4 yusho happening is extremely low (less than 5%?), so I wont even bother wasting my brain on it, unless it actually comes to that.

As to the results Tochiazuma will get, at this point I dont see Asashoryu getting anything less than a 12-3 unless he is injured. More likely it is another 13-2 performance.

Unlike Jesi I dont have that great a power of foresight down to that kind of detail, (Laughing...) but I can say the following

It is actually quite possible that Tochiazuma will get some sort of jun yusho result (with or without playoff loss) in the range of 12 or 13 wins. Now that will be a headache for Kyokai to unravel on whether to promote him or not. So in the end, I actually voted for no promotion at 12-3 jun yusho.

But I am still rooting for the guy!!!