Suppose Baruto....

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

But Baruto is showing a better ability than Kotooshu's to change his sumo, and will make it to Ozeki in no time.

Are you saying it took Kotooshu too much time for making it to Ozeki?

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Are you saying it took Kotooshu too much time for making it to Ozeki?

I took it to mean that Oshu got there quickly because his sumo didn't need as much changing, but if it had he would have been in a worse situation than Baruto is now. I'm inclined to agree with that, if so.

[kaiguma 0]

But Baruto is showing a better ability than Kotooshu's to change his sumo, and will make it to Ozeki in no time.

Are you saying it took Kotooshu too much time for making it to Ozeki?

Seems quite the opposite: Osh made it so quickly that his sumo was still green. There was a lot of talk about what needed to be improved for him to do honor to the rank. The leg injury didn't help matters much, but it took him years to correct his bad tachiai and high stance. And those are still at maybe 80%.

I think Baruto is now showing potential to surpass Kotooshu in skill level. I don't think Osh at his best could have pulled off the maki-kae against Hakuho. I was completely surprised by the caliber of that win, and had to reassess my "not until 2011" position. If Baruto can inject that speedy sumo into the mix when it matters most, he will be ozeki in May.

EDIT: forgot to mention that the uwatedashinage vs Kyokutenho was also quite a surprise and shows great potential.

Edited January 27, 2010 by kaiguma

[Kintamayama 45,116]

EDIT: forgot to mention that the uwatedashinage vs Kyokutenho was also quite a surprise and shows great potential.

Not to mention how he hovered a few feet over the ground in his match against Asashouryuu - that was the awesomest!

[kaiguma 0]

I didn't suggest that he is already more advanced than Osh, but only that he has potential. Doesn't mean it will ever pan out.

Sheesh.

:-P

[Asojima 2,874]

Osh entered Ozumo as a seasoned athlete with sumo experience. Baruto entered as a barroom bouncer who made statements that he would change the way that sumo was fought. He had some injuries that gave him a rude awakening, but he is learning very well. I agree that he has the potential to bypass Osh who went into a period of contentment after his Ozeki promotion. Osh has started to improve again of late, but he is not hungry enough. Baruto has been growing into a mature rikishi over the last few bashos, and, barring injury, he will probably make it in May or July. He is way ahead of schedule given his start.

Oh yeah. Did I mention that he will be the first European yokozuna?

Edited January 27, 2010 by Asojima

[HenryK 38]

While I can see all the arguments why Baruto did not get the nod, I still feel uneasy about it. Baruto met what is commonly assumed to be the yardstick, and most agree he is on par with the existing Ozeki.

They shouldn't make Ozeki promotions overly hard. One day, when Kaio and Kotomitsuki will be retired, the Kyokai may yearn for somebody getting a run together as Baruto did in the past 3 bahos.

[Oshirokita 188]

I see the 9 win basho as a serious knock against promotion as it indicates a /possible/ lack in mental focus. If any ozeki candidate goes 12-9-12 (for example) they have met the 33 win "guideline" but could just as easily be in an up-and-down sequence with the following basho at only 8 wins or, tellingly, 7 or less. Sumo doesn't want a shin-ozeki to be make koshi in his first basho. Therefore, IMO a promotion should only go to a rikishi who gets double digit wins (totalling 33 or more wins) in 3 consecutive basho. Possible exception if the 3rd basho is a yusho.

I say Baruto should wait; if he is truly ozeki calibre (and I believe he might be), he will string together 3 solid basho eventually. If he can't, so be it.

If there should come a time when we run out of ozeki, then perhaps the requirements can be loosened. (I think Miyabiyama would be a bit choked if Baruto got in easy.)

Edited January 28, 2010 by Oshirokita

[Treblemaker 254]

I dunno..... Baruto has all the physical attributes that would lead directly to Oz status. What he lacks is the mental attributes. He needs a mean streak. He needs to understand his opponents and how to undermine their strategies, take advantage of their weaknesses and not be scared off by the "mice". He needs intensity and he needs intelligence.

Having a big body and strength to move pianos isn't much help if your opponent knows more about you than you know about you.

And he needs a repertoire of moves. The Baruto Crane is only good for a limited number of opponents. Kaio has that dreaded arm-lock that has people running the other way, but he's proved to us that he can win using other avenues. Also, Kaio is singificantly quicker and can be somewhat more resilient to attack than Baruto.

He also seriously needs a sense of balance. Something he shares with Osh. When forced to fight low, both become unstable. They both have high centres of gravity. They both desperately need ballet lessons. Seriously. Offensive linemen in the NFL often do just that, to improve their footwork.

I don't know how OSH got his Oz promotion, although he's now more than earned it. Baruto is still very green and just doesn't have enough weapons or knowledge to get that big corner office. And he could do with a few more kinboshi under his mawashi. That would impress a few people.

Edited January 28, 2010 by Treblemaker

[Washuyama 641]

I don't know how OSH got his Oz promotion...

2005.07 - K1e - 12-3 - Jun-Yusho - Shukun-sho 

2005.09 - S1e - 13-2 - Jun-Yusho - Kanto-sho 

2005.11 - S1e - 11-4 - Jun-Yusho - Shukun-sho - Kanto-sho

I know that's not what you meant exactly, but figured I'd throw it out there anyway...

Edited January 28, 2010 by Washuyama

[Asashosakari 19,320]

If any ozeki candidate goes 12-9-12 (for example) they have met the 33 win "guideline" but could just as easily be in an up-and-down sequence with the following basho at only 8 wins or, tellingly, 7 or less.

Please tell me you don't really believe in such simplistic explanations. :-( But if you're serious, I guess I'll just have to point to the 11-4 preceding the first 12-3 to "disprove" the idea...

Every regular ozeki promotee will fall off a bit from the standard he showed during his promotion run, that's just a given because nobody except the very best of the best are capable of averaging 11 wins per basho consistently, especially in a time with so many other yokozuna and ozeki. If you seriously think that needs to be avoided, I guess only future dai-yokozuna should be promoted to ozeki anymore.

Decades ago the promotion standard used to be significantly looser than the de facto 34/35 wins that we're apparently headed towards right now, and yet they didn't suffer from a larger proportion of weak ozeki performances/careers. Why does that never give anybody pause?

Edited January 28, 2010 by Asashosakari

[yorikiried by fate 2,028]

What a wonderful opportunity to lure you all to this post of mine over at ST, where you can download a graphical overview that gives you easy access also to the questions of promotion. I'd have posted the PDF also here on SF, but the nasty attachment restrictions kept me from doing it.

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

They shouldn't make Ozeki promotions overly hard. One day, when Kaio and Kotomitsuki will be retired, the Kyokai may yearn for somebody getting a run together as Baruto did in the past 3 bahos.

Don't worry. The promotion guidelines will forever be flexible like warm wax. If a new ozeki is really needed, enough buzz will be generated to let a promotion with 32 wins happen.

But seriously, my thought is that Baruto is supposed to become ozeki anyway, so he is kind of given the honour to earn the promotion in a clear-cut way. You will notice that the outrage over this non-promotion is not as big as it was in Miyabiyama's case. That's because it pretty clearly was Miyabiyama's last chance while Baruto will be ozeki anyway. His strength rating is that of a good ozeki already, and right now Baruto is probably the strongest sekiwake in history (which reminds me that I really have to update that historical strength analysis...).

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

If you seriously think that needs to be avoided, I guess only future dai-yokozuna should be promoted to ozeki anymore.

Which has been a surprisingly common opinion in past discussions on Ozeki promotion standards, if I remember correctly. Although of course the proponents wouldn't admit/realize that themselves.

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

Baruto is probably the strongest sekiwake in history

You mean excluding those that went higher right?

Of course career sekiwake.

[HenryK 38]

I see the 9 win basho as a serious knock against promotion as it indicates a /possible/ lack in mental focus. If any ozeki candidate goes 12-9-12 (for example) they have met the 33 win "guideline" but could just as easily be in an up-and-down sequence with the following basho at only 8 wins or, tellingly, 7 or less.

But if his sequence is 11-10-12 this is different??

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

Of course career sekiwake.

Is he higher than a two-time yusho winner?

Baruto's peak rating is clearly higher, yes. The strongest sekiwake was Hasegawa btw. and Baruto only is slightly better than his peak.

[wanderer 159]

Of course career sekiwake.

Is he higher than a two-time yusho winner?

Baruto's peak rating is clearly higher, yes. The strongest sekiwake was Hasegawa btw. and Baruto only is slightly better than his peak.

It is matter of when, not if, for Baruto to make ozeki. What I see in Baruto is slightly more than that. My impression is that Baruto is a smart fellow, who can learn quite well over time. Combine that with his strength, and we may have a credible Yokozuna candidate since Hakuho. He is not necessarily a dai Yok like Asa and Hakuho, but decent enough to make it like Akebono.

Let me put this way. It is taking quite an effort for Kotooshu to change his style, add more technique, and bend his knees. Combine these with his mental lapses, and Kotooshu may never become Yokozuna.

Harumafuji is good, but he has physical limitations, so he may never be able to threaten yusho on a regular basis.

Suppose Baruto learns to bend his knees, press his elbow to his body, some tsuppari, and bulldoze through, no one can stop him. And he is more in control of his mind and body. So, Baruto can steal few yusho from Hakuho.

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

I think it's a little early for any decent comparison between Baruto and any of the above mentioned, but if you look at Makuuchi winning percentage alone, Baruto is clearly above them. I think that would be enough to fool any reasonable computer algorithm.

[Asashosakari 19,320]

But seriously, my thought is that Baruto is supposed to become ozeki anyway, so he is kind of given the honour to earn the promotion in a clear-cut way.

In my opinion that's exactly the wrong way to look at it. I was actually complaining about a related issue on the German forum just last week, so I guess I might as well post it here as well and expand it into the dreaded Theory of Everything. Short version: Everything is Futahaguro's fault.

Long version: That the criteria for promotion to yokozuna were significantly toughened following the Futahaguro dismissal is probably common knowledge nowadays. That has obviously resulted in more exclusivity at the yokozuna rank, and some (many? most?) fans like that. But the flipside is that there are rikishi who, in former times, would have been perfectly adequate yokozuna and who now either never make it at all (Kaio obviously, with less certainty also Tochiazuma and Chiyotaikai) or make it so late in their careers that they're useless at the yokozuna rank (Wakanohana3 being the prime example, to a lesser degree also Asahifuji).

Since I'm responding to a post by Doitsuyama, I pretty much have to make reference to the Internet Rating System and one (at first glance) revealing fact: namely that the demarcation line between yokozuna and ozeki hasn't really changed over the decades. However, I'll assert that it's categorically false to conclude that the Kyokai is doing everything right with its promotion decisions. As Asojima so aptly puts it - an ozeki only has two goals: yusho and survival. As soon as the yusho is out of range, survival becomes the only target, and that means cruise control towards kachikoshi. But that's primarily (and perhaps "only") the case because the yokozuna promotion criteria are so tough. Take an ozeki who just won yusho and is now on tsunatori - he drops an important bout to fall to 9-3, behind a yokozuna at least two wins ahead. If this was still 1970 and he would know that 12-3 might still result in promotion (if he already has a longer track record of success) or would at least prolong his opportunity to the next basho, he would likely continue to give some effort. Perhaps it'll end as soon as the next bout, perhaps he will in fact finish 12-3, but all the same there's a much bigger incentive for him to do well.

Instead, nowadays he will lose that bout to drop to 9-3, and he'll know he's toast. He'll probably cruise to a 10-5 finish, and afterwards all the usual suspects among press and fans will rag on him about how he's lacking "guts" or "mental focus" or "just doesn't have what it takes". Well, duh. And it's not just in tsunatori opportunities (after all, those don't happen too often, so one might be tempted to ignore the issue), but also in basho that can potentially lead to one. If he's 9-2 and the yusho-leading yokozuna is 11-0, what are the odds that ozeki will still do his best? Yusho is a clear longshot - even if the yusho score ends up at only 13-2, nobody would bet on that at that point, so why go full out and risk your health for no reward? It would be different if he could still use a strong 13-2 finish as a lead-in to the next basho, but nowadays he can't and he fully knows it. So all in all, to take the ratings achieved under the current incentive structure as gospel and just assume that somebody like Kaio wouldn't have done any better if he'd been given completely different incentives totally misses the point, in my opinion.

But actually we were on the subject of yokozuna before that lengthy detour, so let's get (kinda) back to that. What's one of the most striking differences between ozeki and yokozuna? The former have a rules-based framework for ending their career (kadoban, 2-MK demotion) while the latter have only a reputation-based framework, however established at a much, much higher level. Anybody care to guess how many years Kaio would be retired by now if he had reached the yokozuna level? Conversely, anybody wanna speculate how many years longer Wakanohana3 would have hung on as a mediocre ozeki if he hadn't reached it? And there's the rub - turning the yokozuna rank into a super-exclusive club that it never was before 1988 has clear spillover effects on the ozeki rank.

And that, in turn, has spillover effects on the question of how to promote somebody to ozeki. I'm pretty much on record that the current trend towards ever-tougher ozeki promotion guidelines is completely ridiculous, but I can't fault the Kyokai for it. (At least not when looking at the issue in isolation.) Guys who arguably "should" have been mediocre yokozuna are now excellent ozeki, and being so much better than the typical ozeki of 30 years ago it's no surprise that their decline phase will last much longer. So instead of being humanely retired as a yokozuna years ago we have somebody like Kaio clogging up the ozeki rank. Of course the Kyokai needs to be super-tough on additional ozeki promotions as a result of that, or we'd regularly have six or seven ozeki on the banzuke. (Probably all of them "weak" because there would be so many intra-ozeki matchups.)

So what's the problem here, you may be asking? That gets us back to what I quoted from Doitsuyama to open this post. Is Baruto "going to become ozeki anyway"? Very likely yes. But let's turn the issue around - exactly what level of performance marks a guy as "gonna be ozeki" material? It's a bit of a crude approximation, but how about at least 30 wins in 3 KK basho in the joi-jin? You'll note that with very few exceptions only future ozeki have done that at least once - and if you increase the standard to 31 wins and all-sanyaku, there's nobody else left. Even if you just increase it to 31 wins and still leave the possibility of a maegashira start in place you're eliminating the majority of the exceptions. (And the ones who are left would hardly have been an embarrassment to the ozeki rank if they had reached it. Actually they'd probably just been forgotten by now, along with a whole bunch of guys who did make it to ozeki.) Also, it's not like rikishi tend to post 30+ wins and then fall back into long-term mediocrity before finally breaking out to ozeki promotion with a 33+ performance; in the overwhelming majority of cases they're spending the interim period as very strong sanyaku regulars, often no worse than the actual ozeki rank holders.

So if something like 31 wins amply demonstrates the ability to be a credible ozeki now, or at least very soon - other than to address the issue of overcrowded ozeki ranks that exists post-Futahaguro, why exactly should ozeki candidates demonstrate to be significantly better still before they get promoted? Yes, one could look at it as an honour to be required 35 wins or whatever to earn promotion. One could also look at it as being asked to waste part of one's prime years to chase an unnecessarily tough standard. Baruto may be "young" compared to who else is hanging around in the top ranks, but he's also a heavy 25-year-old with a history of knee issues. Wouldn't it be nice to give him as much of an opportunity as possible to build his career further before the decline hits?

So, to summarize the whole screwed-up system in the top two ranks: Not only is the Kyokai forced to delay the ascension of obvious top stars to the ozeki rank just to keep the banzuke manageable, thereby reducing the amount of time those top stars will have available to improve further to yokozuna quality, but they also provide them with such horrible incentives once they've actually become ozeki that there's a significantly reduced chance that they actually will improve and try to take that next, final step. Let's enjoy the next few decades filled with a steady succession of 20-yusho-winning dai-yokozuna who are completely unencumbered by any real competition other than each other (if the stars have aligned right to have two at once), I guess, because the way the system is currently constituted we're unlikely to see too many rikishi between dai-yokozuna and mediocre ozeki, and the ones who do fall in between will likely have frustrating careers like Kaio's. And the ozeki rank will probably continue to have 4 or 5 occupants at almost all times, further annoying fans with consistently mediocre results and an inability/disinterest in striving for anything better.

Edited January 28, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

This has been as riveting an analysis as I've ever seen, but I think you're blowing it out of proportion a bit. Every decade had a crushingly dominant Yokozuna ever since the 60's - I won't bother enumerating them because I'm sure everyone knows the great ones. Inbetween, various Ozeki and "lesser" (for lack of a better word) Yokozuna managed to sneak in a good streak and get their promotions. The problem with the 00's and Asashoryu's reign was the lack of viable candidates. Kaio spent the better part of his youth in the 90's, overshadowed by Takanohana & Co. Despite the late surge after 2000, he couldn't really be a serious threat to Asashoryu on a regular basis (despite that, he was VERY close to Yokozuna promotion in 2004, foiled by Miyabiyama and/or then youngster Hakuho, take your pick). Chiyotaikai and Tochiazuma were riddled with injury (and despite that, Tochiazuma came fairly close too). Kotooshu even managed to get a great run at the very peak of Asashoryu's dominance. Then came Hakuho, then Ama stepped it up.

Back to the tough Ozeki promotion criteria, though, can you name anyone except Miyabiyama and now Baruto who was denied the promotion despite meeting the guideline 33 over 3 basho in the joi? Miyabiyama was a special case, as he'd been demoted already and wallowed in mediocrity for a good 6 years before his second run - also his last basho of the run was only 10 (the last guy who got promoted with a run ending in 10 was Takanohana in '72). Change his run from 10-14-10 to 9-14-11 and you've got yourself an Ozeki.

And finally, back to Baruto, I DO agree he should have been promoted as early as this basho, but are you sure his case isn't a little more complex? Baruto isn't Japanese - how much are you willing to bet the next Japanese non-Ozeki guy who gets Baruto's run will be promoted with no questions asked? Also, Baruto had a few embarrassing losses, and even worse, more than a few embarrassing near-losses miraculously turned into wins.

Right now, things might look a little bleak, because instead of one dominating Yokozuna you have two. But Asashoryu will retire soon enough, and then only Hakuho will be left to dominate the rest of the field. Add a basho or three off with injury (Hak ain't getting any younger, them joints are gonna trip him up sooner or later), and we're likely talking Yokozuna promotion runs or Ozeki promotions for the others.

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

Baruto's peak rating is clearly higher, yes.

Why? Is the IRS based on potential rather than achievement?

I wonder if I'll understand the answer.

It's really only based on achievement. But not only the positives count (Kotonishiki's yusho) but the negatives are counted in with metallic coldness as well. Since Kotonishiki wasn't the master of consecutive double digit results (never more than two consecutive), his career records are looking like a wandering pelvis if you get my drift...

[HenryK 38]

Change his run from 10-14-10 to 9-14-11 and you've got yourself an Ozeki.

Isn't exactly this absurd?

[Kuroyama 715]

Of course career sekiwake.

Is he higher than a two-time yusho winner?

One can't help but notice that his first yusho came when both yokozuna were kyujo and he didn't have to fight either of them, and his second was from low maegashira where he fought none of the jo'i until Day 10. So I'm not sure what this has to do with strength, per se.

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Thanks for the response, I wasn't sure anybody would actually read that wall of text... I suppose here's the next one.

This has been as riveting an analysis as I've ever seen, but I think you're blowing it out of proportion a bit. Every decade had a crushingly dominant Yokozuna ever since the 60's - I won't bother enumerating them because I'm sure everyone knows the great ones. Inbetween, various Ozeki and "lesser" (for lack of a better word) Yokozuna managed to sneak in a good streak and get their promotions. The problem with the 00's and Asashoryu's reign was the lack of viable candidates. Kaio spent the better part of his youth in the 90's, overshadowed by Takanohana & Co. Despite the late surge after 2000, he couldn't really be a serious threat to Asashoryu on a regular basis (despite that, he was VERY close to Yokozuna promotion in 2004, foiled by Miyabiyama and/or then youngster Hakuho, take your pick). Chiyotaikai and Tochiazuma were riddled with injury (and despite that, Tochiazuma came fairly close too).

"Came close" is the operative part here, though. In a galaxy far, far away (okay, 25 years ago) they would most likely have made it. The problem is that there are many ways to come close now, but only one to make it (two consecutive yusho). Hypothetical example: a good ozeki semi-flukes his way to a high-scoring yusho (say 14-1), and in the next tournament he goes 13-2J with losses to both (dai-)yokozuna. Nobody would have blinked an eye when that guy got promoted back then, but by now we're in the opposite situation: nobody blinks an eye when his case isn't even up for discussion afterwards.

Another issue is that somebody like Kaio, while not a good ozeki anymore, is still plenty good enough to play spoiler to another ozeki's tsunatori if he gets the chance. And that's really what I was trying to get at - it's not that each individual issue (higher yokozuna hurdle, "too many" ozeki, obvious future ozeki spending more valuable career time in lower sanyaku, etc.) is a particularly large problem by itself, but they manage to combine into one.

I do think that the highly anomalous mid-1990s situation obscures the problem a bit. In pre-1988 terms, you arguably had a good-to-strong ozeki in Takanonami, a clear average yokozuna in Wakanohana, and three dai-yokozuna, all completely contemporaneous with each other. That's not going to happen again anytime soon; the more likely "good" outcome is probably something like what we've been seeing with Asa and Hakuho, two dai-yokozuna co-existing for a couple of years with each (probably) getting a multiple-year window of complete dominance at one end of it. (And for the same reason I should perhaps focus less on Kaio, as he's the one guy who wasn't just hurt by the issues I've outlined but also by simply existing at the wrong time. Perhaps I am overstating the case, but I do think we have yet to really see the effects of what's been put in motion since Futahaguro.)

Back to the tough Ozeki promotion criteria, though, can you name anyone except Miyabiyama and now Baruto who was denied the promotion despite meeting the guideline 33 over 3 basho in the joi? Miyabiyama was a special case, as he'd been demoted already and wallowed in mediocrity for a good 6 years before his second run - also his last basho of the run was only 10 (the last guy who got promoted with a run ending in 10 was Takanohana in '72). Change his run from 10-14-10 to 9-14-11 and you've got yourself an Ozeki.

Well, let's wait and see how the next few borderline cases do. I'd love to believe that "33 in 3" is still operative, but I'm beginning to have doubts. Would Kaio's ozeki run (8-14Y-11) still fly today, even for a Japanese rikishi? I'm not so sure. In any case, my issue is really that even 31 or 32 wins have historically demonstrated the necessary ability for the ozeki rank, so the question of whether the promotion line should be 33 or 34 or 35 nowadays is IMHO just an unjustified diversion brought on by the messed-up rank structure, and a priori acceptance that it "has" to be 33+ (as most of us fans do in these discussions, at least implicitly) is kind of missing the forest for the trees.

Right now, things might look a little bleak, because instead of one dominating Yokozuna you have two. But Asashoryu will retire soon enough, and then only Hakuho will be left to dominate the rest of the field. Add a basho or three off with injury (Hak ain't getting any younger, them joints are gonna trip him up sooner or later), and we're likely talking Yokozuna promotion runs or Ozeki promotions for the others.

Well, if they haven't had all their ambition beaten out of them by the screwed-up incentives by then... In any case, if I've given off the impression that I consider the current situation to be bleak I've been too unclear. I believe things will be bleak once we don't have two such excellent yokozuna anymore; ideally I'd love a more dynamic situation, but in lieu of that we're quite fortunate that Asashoryu's ultra-dominance wasn't simply replaced by Hakuho's ultra-dominance, and that we're actually getting a few competitive years right now. But once Asashoryu is gone (and who knows how long that's going to take now, considering current developments...), the system in place will make it much tougher to find another - even a mediocre - yokozuna. Sure, Hakuho will also be sitting out tournaments with injuries at some point, but since one effect of the whole thing is that there's very likely a large number of ozeki when that happens, it'll be much harder for one of those 4 or 5 guys to put together the necessary two yusho, than if there were only 2 or 3 at the time. And even moreso if those 2 or 3 weren't strictly required to have two straight yusho, of course. It all compounds.

The best-case scenario is of course that the current trends slowly reverse themselves again over time. I just think that's unlikely, especially as far as the 2-yusho standard is concerned. It's got some major advantages going for it: It's easy to comprehend for the fans, and even more than that it's the perfect way for the Kyokai to avoid as much controversy as possible - no need to make any subjective decisions that, gasp, could actually be open to debate and questioning. And since everything else flows down from that 2-yusho standard...well.

Edited January 29, 2010 by Asashosakari