Short term future of sumo?

[Washuyama 638]

Will Hakuho have any competition in the near future?

Will the open Yokozuna slot spur HMF or Osh?

Will Baruto complete his Ozeki run in Haru? Is Bart the next Yokozuna?

All of these questions will be answered in time, but the departure of Asashoryu does open the possibility of an exciting future...

yawn

Wow! With that gem of insight, I eagerly await the jewel that will come next! ;-)

[yorikiried by fate 2,006]

I'm in with wild guesses. Kisenosato will take a yusho within the next three years.

[Jakusotsu 5,885]

This quote got me to write what I've been thinking over the last two days, does Asashoryu's departure in any way diminish the way we will view Hakuho's career? Let's say he runs up a whole bunch more yusho (as everyone is predicting). Will we say, "Ah, he got xyz yusho but if Asa had been around then it would have been less"? Will we ever truly know how good Hakuho is/could have been, without his immediate rival not being there?

Let me put it that way: in Bench Sumo, Hakuho has been a landslide favourite over Asashoryu during the last handful of basho, even in Kyushu with Asa fresh from a yusho.

[Asashosakari 19,038]

yawn

Wow! With that gem of insight, I eagerly await the jewel that will come next! :-P

Waiting for the 85th yokozuna can be a tiring exercise...

[ilovesumo 12]

I see Harumafuji gaining the most improvement over the next 2 years (moreso than Baruto or the current ozeki) and he is my pick for next yokozuna.

You do?

Since Ama is Ozeki.......I kinda feel he lost it...no Yokozuna no way.

[ilovesumo 12]

I'm in with wild guesses. Kisenosato will take a yusho within the next three years.

If that happens, then Homasho will have one as well :-P

[Treblemaker 254]

If you want to talk about possible yok candidates, don't you need someone to have back-to-back yushos, or at least 2 out of three? Count Osh in for maybe 1, same for HF, and maybe Baruto as a long shot.

Real long shots (assuming Hak isn't totally injury-free): Mitsuki (would have to be on a real rocket), Kise, Goeido (providing the last two get their heads screwed on properly...?)

Real, REAL long shot? Aran.

Would love to see consecutive yusho by Osh, Baruto and Aran. All these white guys... Kyokai would be poking their eyes out with pencils....

[Orion 431]

If you want to talk about possible yok candidates, don't you need someone to have back-to-back yushos, or at least 2 out of three? Count Osh in for maybe 1, same for HF, and maybe Baruto as a long shot.

Nope. Already at ozeki, back to back yusho, or equivalent -- which is normally taken to mean 'same score but lost in sudden-death playoff'. Certainly no two out of three -- which might have got Konishiki in, but he certainly never made it according to the actual rules.

Orion outta here

[kawika 123]

Will Hakuho have any competition in the near future?

>>> Yes. Baruto. Harumafuji. Goiedo

Will the open Yokozuna slot spur HMF or Osh?

>>> Yes for Harumafuji. No for Osh.

Will Baruto complete his Ozeki run in Haru? Is Bart the next Yokozuna?

>>> No. But he will make Ozeki within 2 years. No, he is not the next Yokozuna. Harumafuji will be the next yokozuna.

[Fay 1,677]

my money is still on Kakuryu and Goeido and I still claim that Kyokushuho is quite overestimated - maybe someday he convinces me otherwise.

[ilovesumo 12]

my money is still on Kakuryu and Goeido and I still claim that Kyokushuho is quite overestimated - maybe someday he convinces me otherwise.

Before all those injuries bothered him, he looked like "da man"- I had to go back home before things got bad- never saw him loosing til Aki/09-, but the potential still stands.

Edited February 7, 2010 by ilovesumo

[Gusoyama 99]

with regards to competition for Hakuho, Hakuho had not lost to Asa in a non-playoff match since May 2008, almost 2 years ago. But yeah, I think that he'll blow the "Yusho or Jun-Yushos in a row" record out of the water. I think he's already got it at 15, if I remember correctly. He will become a wooden rooster.

[Toukeigakusha 0]

Except for his Natsu 2009 failure, Baruto had 9 kachi-koshi in a row since mid-2008 (10-8-9-9-8-4-11-12-9-12), all but one in sanyaku; with Asashoryu out of the way ozeki runs will become easier so the Estonian crane should become ozeki at least somewhere in 2010.

But other than that, I don't see any new ozeki soon; even with both Kotomitsuki and Kaio gone the sanyaku guys would get no more than 4 additional wins during an ozeki run (it's not like a young and healthy M07 such as Tochinoshin or Aran would be that much easier to beat than an ageing ozeki) meaning that they should have had 29-30 already to make a credible claim.

Kisenosato had 28 in early 2008 starting from M01 which was his best shot so far, then 29 in mid-2009 but starting with 13 from M04; Kakuryu had 28 in early 2009 but none of these as sekiwake; Toyonoshima had 27 in 2008 including a make-koshi; Goeido had 25 in 2009 including a make-koshi; Kotoshogiku had 25 in early 2008 and 24 in late 2009. These guys may well outbalance each other for quite a while.

As for the next yokozuna, I guess we'll also have to wait quite a while. I don't see the one who would even claim two yusho back-to-back if Hakuho were injured. Baruto isn't consistent enough for this and still in permanent danger of injuries. Kotooshu is a yusho candidate when in perfect shape but not twice in a row. Harumafuji might improve enough to become a permanent yusho candidate, having now gotten more experience as ozeki - he would be my first choice if the next yokozuna were to be found before 2012 considering how much Aminishiki's scores improved after gaining some more weight. But the next yokozuna might not even be in makuuchi yet.

Hakuho set a 86:4 record in 2009 and still won only three basho during that year; maybe this was his peak already? He's young enough for some more years of domination but we'll have to wait for the effect of Asashoryu's intai on his performance; with this rivalry gone it may have a negative effect on his performance. If so, I'd expect a larger variety of yusho winners - whenever he ends up with 12:3 the yusho is up for grabs for any of the gaijin ozeki who's on a roll these two weeks. If we neglect Asashoryu's bouts in Hatsu 2010 then Baruto would already have taken the yusho there, and that was with Hakuho being in the race. I can even imagine Kisenosato win a 12:3 yusho via kettei-sen when in perfect shape (but the probability of a Japanese yusho winner in 2010/11 is very small), and I would love to see Toyonoshima getting a double-digit score from sekiwake at least once.