How long will Hakuho be the sole yokozuna?

[Asashosakari 19,653]

Unusual for me, a poll that both deals with the makuuchi division and is pretty self-explanatory...

[Washuyama 641]

Baruto sometime next year... I like the Kotomitsuki pick, whoever made it. Would love to see it, although his stay at the top rank would be shorter than his mentor's.

[Kotoviki 16]

I also go with Baruto and I think it will be either the end of this year or the first of next year.

You know Scott, I could ask him to try to do it before you leave but that seems impossible... (Sign of approval...) though I'm sure you'd like to see it!

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

It was impossible for me to not vote for Kaio here. (Sign of approval...)

[Barang 0]

Baruto after November 2010 honbasho with one zen-yusho and two jun-yushos.

[Fay 1,677]

Impossible for me not to vote for Kakuryu of course :-D

edit: quite remarkable that the Harumafujihype seems to be totally gone

Edited April 6, 2010 by Fay

[Harry 67]

Impossible for me not to vote for Kakuryu of course :-D

edit: quite remarkable that the Harumafujihype seems to be totally gone

Including Baruto he lost to 3/4 of the other ozeki he'll face, plus Shogun always seems to have his number. I just don't see Harry getting another yusho unless he can find his form again. July 2008 - May 2009 was his best run with two jun yusho and the yusho, 5 10+ scores. With Asa gone he should be doing one win better and challenging for the yusho but it seems the other ozeki have figured him out. He needs something else to be able to push to the next level. Being the lightest ozeki by ~30kg doesn't help either but he might lose most of his speed with more weight. I still think it is mostly mental, he has the techniques to do it.

[Asashosakari 19,653]

I'm curious to know who voted for the 21+ basho option... (Better not Jakusotsu!)

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

I'm curious to know who voted for the 21+ basho option... (Better not Jakusotsu!)

I was tempted, because I couldn't truly decide between the last two options. Went with #3 though...

I don't see anyone winning consecutive yusho besides Hakuho anytime soon, even if he might go kyujo for a while. Baruto still has to prove whether he can keep up his spark at the new rank, and the other Ozeki already have lost it. So it will be the 5th coming of Kaio somewhere near 2014. :-D

[Asashosakari 19,653]

Had to mull my own vote for a bit...I've gone with 11-20 basho and Kotooshu. (I see somebody else also voted Osh in the meantime...) I'd love to see Baruto make it, but for now I'm sharing Jakusotsu's skepticism. A 29-year-old Kotooshu getting promoted around 2012/13 sounds about right to me though given the Sadogatake late bloomer tendencies. :-D

[Kintamayama 45,524]

By the end of the year-Baruto.

[Asashosakari 19,653]

By the end of the year-Baruto.

Definite steak time, what with you being one of just two voters to go for the shortest option. (Time, that is, not height...) I'll go for the pre-emptive :-D to you and Barang just in case you turn out to be right.

And I'm guessing Jejima hasn't been by to vote yet, considering Harumafuji remains entirely vote-less. (Neener, neener...) Short honeymoon indeed as Fay noted.

Edited April 6, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Harry 67]

By the end of the year-Baruto.

Definite steak time, what with you being one of just two voters to go for the shortest option. (Time, that is, not height...) I'll go for the pre-emptive :-D to you and Barang just in case you turn out to be right.

And I'm guessing Jejima hasn't been by to vote yet, considering Harumafuji remains entirely vote-less. (Neener, neener...) Short honeymoon indeed as Fay noted.

Short honeymoon? He's no newlywed, it's been over a year since he put on the silver mawashi! He was almost kadoban after his first ozeki tournament. Of course Baruto could do as badly, I sure hope not but you never know! After that first shaky 8-7 Harry got a yusho two later and the buzz was starting but since he has settled into a series of safe but unspectacular performances. I want him to prove me wrong, I really do but as I said and as Treblemaker added, he seems to have become somewhat predictable so it seems he's been figured out. Perhaps he still has problems with trying to do "ozeki sumo" rather than Ama sumo.

[Kintamayama 45,524]

By the end of the year-Baruto.

Definite steak time, what with you being one of just two voters to go for the shortest option.

Well, I see shades of Akebono- it took Akebono 4 basho ( he was kyujo in the first one..). I haven't seen anyone dominate like this for a long time, and it's not a "fluke" domination. Hakuhou? He'll catch up to him soon enough-the minute he stops fearing him. And I'll even go out on a thinner limb and say that even a back to back yusho EQUIVALENT will do for him- two more "regardless' 14-1/13-2's with one yusho of the two will do it.

All this, barring injury etc etc

[ryafuji 815]

And I'll even go out on a thinner limb and say that even a back to back yusho EQUIVALENT will do for him- two more "regardless' 14-1/13-2's with one yusho of the two will do it.

All this, barring injury etc etc

And I'll go out on a limb and say no foreign rikishi will ever be promoted to yokozuna without two consecutive yusho.

[Kotoviki 16]

I don't mind being in that minority with Kintamayama having voted for the shortest option!!! :-D

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

It's almost surreal to see Bart with such a heavy lead. I've got nothing against the guy, but come on. I voted for Harumafuji and 11-20.

[Asashosakari 19,653]

It's almost surreal to see Bart with such a heavy lead.

The answers to the second question can probably be summed up as 70% Bart, 30% not-Bart...doesn't look like there's any actual, strong belief in one of the others even for those 30% of us, more a case of "well, it's gotta be somebody else". I suppose the landslide vote mainly speaks to the lack of (perceived or real) upside in anybody else - of course, if Baruto also proceeds to turn into a mediocre ozeki, there's going to be a lot of unhappy faces around here and elsewhere. (Even among those who didn't vote for him here, I suspect.)

[Randomitsuki 2,843]

It's almost surreal to see Bart with such a heavy lead. I've got nothing against the guy, but come on. I voted for Harumafuji and 11-20.

Maybe I am stretching numbers too far, but not many Sekiwake had a 14-1 in the past (Baruto is the ninth in history). Five of the other eight became Yokozuna later on. Among those who failed were Asashio (in a successful Ozeki run at age 27) and Miyabiyama (in his non-successful 34-win run at almost 29 years). The only obvious counterexample was Hokutenyu (who had his successful Ozeki run aged 22, but never made it beyond Ozeki).

Query

[Washuyama 641]

...if Baruto also proceeds to turn into a mediocre ozeki, there's going to be a lot of unhappy faces around here and elsewhere. (Even among those who didn't vote for him here, I suspect.)

I think disappointed would be a better word. I wasn't around for Kotooshu's meteoric rise but I'm guessing alot of folks had him pegged as a "soon to be yokozuna" who has been a disappointment. Now, Bart could make a good/great ozeki and never make yok and there'd still be a few (me included) who would think 'Man, he coulda been a contender!'

With all that said, here's to hoping Bart uses this promotion as a stepping stone and not his final destination.

[Kotoviki 16]

...if Baruto also proceeds to turn into a mediocre ozeki, there's going to be a lot of unhappy faces around here and elsewhere. (Even among those who didn't vote for him here, I suspect.)

I think disappointed would be a better word. I wasn't around for Kotooshu's meteoric rise but I'm guessing alot of folks had him pegged as a "soon to be yokozuna" who has been a disappointment. Now, Bart could make a good/great ozeki and never make yok and there'd still be a few (me included) who would think 'Man, he coulda been a contender!'

With all that said, here's to hoping Bart uses this promotion as a stepping stone and not his final destination.

Well Scott, I guarantee you this... if he starts turning ozeki into his final destination this older sister is gonna turn mean and spank him silly until he reverses his decision!! (Nodding yes...) Then, the next time the media asks him who I am instead of "older sister" he's gonna say "wicked older sister!" (Laughing...) I don't think I can let him get lazy here!!! I hope he doesn't want to!!!

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

When I said Harumafuji, I forgot to give any arguments. First of all, if he needs it, he'll have help - Hakuho. Second, he's still a notch above the other Ozeki technique and speed-wise. Baruto can still get there, but he'll have to work a lot harder than he did for his Ozeki promotion.

Then again, all this prediction business is only for fun. All the points made by the people above are good, but no matter how many arguments one brings, things can always go the other way - injury, lack of motivation (hello, Kotooshu!), surprise contenders/spoilers, unbeatable Yokozuna, etc. Rest assured, the next foreign Yokozuna will have to win two consecutive tournaments. But with the exception of Harumafuji, I can't fathom anyone doing it within the next 20 basho or so.

[Toratorii 11]

I say it'll be a rikishi who isn't even in Makuuchi yet. One that will "turn it on" and soar through the ranks. I'm not 'seasoned' enough speculate who, however, we have a few years to see the development.

[Koukai 4]

I guess it would be someone new. Even not from makuuchi. As it seen now it could be him.

[Oshirokita 192]

It's almost surreal to see Bart with such a heavy lead. I've got nothing against the guy, but come on. I voted for Harumafuji and 11-20.

Ditto there for me. I am pleased to see Baruto get to ozeki, but I believe Harumafuji will find yet another level to perform at and start to be a consistent yusho challenger in another year or two.