Seki-Quad commentary for Nagoya 2010

[Asashosakari 19,403]

Of course, the original rule called for a shukun-sho score of minus 1 every time a fusen winner was present, even if you scored 4 winners, so you're actually getting a more favourable treatment than what Zenjimoto had originally envisioned.

Pretty funny that this is apparently the first time it's a problem for you even though you've scored with no less than 58 fusensho picks over the years. Are you seriously saying you never had any of these in your picks until the kyujo announcements came in? Anyway, no, it's not getting changed - having a fusen winner in your squad always makes it easier to score a win, no matter if you knew about it or not. How quickly we forget all the times when an obviously injured rikishi still dragged himself to the dohyo and proceeded to henka the crap out of his opponent for a desperate win...

[Gernobono 467]

. Are you seriously saying you never had any of these in your picks until the kyujo announcements came in?

no, i never said that, and i frequently use fusensho rikishi

randomitsuki is right when he says that i just wanted to have the rules changed......

i do not care for sansho in any of the games (exeption is the technique's prize in benchsumo)....and yesterday it was the first time i read something about this rule....and reading it, it looked wrong to me......

but as you wrote all will stay as it is, asking for a change was not accepted and that's it......

Edited July 24, 2010 by Gernobono

[Asashosakari 19,403]

Day 14:

Leader Kitakachiyama decided to sit out today, and Doitsuyama did the best he could, scoring a win and cutting his deficit from 2 to 1. However, he only has five rikishi (+ kyujo Aminishiki) remaining, so it'll be extremely difficult for him to wrest the yusho away from Kitakachiyama. With crall, Hidariashiyama and Tosahayate three more players are kachikoshi now.

In total it was another surprisingly decent day, even with losses by the top two picks (Hakuba 29, Kanbayashi 25), ending up with 22 winners out of 73 active players, good for 30.1%. Tomorrow, on the other hand...I don't have an easy way to check how many players are even theoretically capable of scoring a win on senshuraku, but those who do will need a lot of luck to do so.

Hidariashiyama's kachikoshi removed my last incentive for relaxing the sansho rules. There's still the tiniest chance he might not win the kanto-sho, but the nearest player who can still reach KK is more than 3.5 points behind, which would require just about the perfect squad to overcome (4 winners, three of them not picked by anyone else, the fourth picked by at most one other player).

Shimotori and Tokitenku provided 5 more doboshi apiece, and there were also 5 perfect scores, so consequently the leading score in the shukun-sho competition is now...still 4. Hmm. We're up to 8 players with that score now, three of them capable of winning the prize: Doitsuyama (9-5) and the 7-7 pair of gernobono and Takanokaze. But who knows, perhaps somebody from further below can still jump into the fold with a strangely good day tomorrow. And the tie-breaker situation is of course anyone's guess.

The gino-sho is still similarly open...Doitsuyama leads together with Susanoo and 37 points, but somehow the latter is MK at 6-8 after today. Guess our career leader in bad luck is slated for another high appearance. Hogashi (36 points, 7-7), crall/Hidariashiyama/Profomisakari (35, 8-6), gernobono/DeRosa (35, 7-7) and perhaps Norizo (34, 8-6) are the other contenders for the prize.

[Doitsuyama 1,186]

The gino-sho is still similarly open...Doitsuyama leads together with Susanoo and 37 points, but somehow the latter is MK at 6-8 after today. Guess our career leader in bad luck is slated for another high appearance. Hogashi (36 points, 7-7), crall/Hidariashiyama/Profomisakari (35, 8-6), gernobono/DeRosa (35, 7-7) and perhaps Norizo (34, 8-6) are the other contenders for the prize.

Well, Norizo has only one rikishi left, and he amazingly made an entry to possibly gain one gino-sho point... DeRosa also has one rikishi and Profomisakari has two left - man, tomorrow's win count should be extremely low... Hogashi has three left, getting a win should be really hard, but at least not impossible, the same for Hidariashiyama (who amazingly scored a win the such a three-rikishi entry today - I think that feat should be worth a shukun-point which it isn't currently, ne?). crall and gernobono have four rikishi left. I should feel priviledged to have five rikishi left but I see only one winner there - should I even bother to enter and ruin my shukun-sho tie-breaker?

Edited July 24, 2010 by Doitsuyama

[Asashosakari 19,403]

I should feel priviledged to have five rikishi left but I see only one winner there - should I even bother to enter and ruin my shukun-sho tie-breaker?

Depends on what you expect Kitakachiyama's strategy to be for tomorrow, I suppose. ;-)

Hidariashiyama (who amazingly scored a win the such a three-rikishi entry today - I think that feat should be worth a shukun-point which it isn't currently, ne?).

Hmm. Given that three-pick entries are usually only made in negligible numbers the issue has never come up before. In addition, that gets us right back into the fusensho demerit issue: The reason I lobbied against Zenjimoto's "minus 1" shukun score for perfect lineups with a fusen winner was that it made the player worse off than if he had left out the fusen winner altogether. So the compromise was to assess both the +1 for the perfect score and the -1 for the demerit, which leaves the player with the same zero score as if they simply went 3-for-4. If we change it to +1 for a 3-for-3 squad, we're right back at the same problem with fusen rikishi in the squad resulting in a penalty just by being there.

[Asashosakari 19,403]

BTW, the average win counts per division after 14 days:

Makuuchi 5.54

Juryo 4.55

Makushita 4.76

As banzuke maker I'm kinda hoping that everybody in makuuchi loses tomorrow as that would result in a very nice KK/MK split with a 2-win addition. Currently 18 players have 6+ wins, 17 have 5 or less. Okay, I really just need losses for all the players who are 5-9. ;-)

For a change it seems to help that the makushita players tend to miss so many entries even when it's not required of them...they have a lot more rikishi left now, and consequently posted much better results on Day 14 than the other two divisions (M 9-23, J 3-15, Ms 10-13). That almost never happens otherwise, even on days with many upsets.

[Ruziklao 34]

It is not totally over yet and my result is disastrous (as usually), but I think it was overall extremely interesting basho for S4. Although the scores are low, many unusual strategies have been tried.

[Fujisan 533]

In the end I picked 4 rikishi....

It made no difference only 2 0f my 6 remaining picks won anyway.....

I didn't know you could only 2 rikishi so instead of going kosho I have selected them on the final day.....(Tamaasuka/Hochiyama)

I dont want to miss a day if I can avoid it even if I know a loss is guaranteed..

Edited July 24, 2010 by Fujisan

[Ganzohnesushi 518]

With Aminishiki's kyujo I have only three active Rikishi left. And I think all three of them can win (theoretically!). To make it four I picked Iwakiyama for the very last time. I don't think I will have this chance again. Good bye Iwa!

Ganzohnesushi

[Vikanohara 171]

I've got three rikishi left so I'll enter them for the final day. But what with the tiebreaker then ?

EDIT : Forget about it. Two of them play each other. So 7-8 it will be for me. :-)

Edited July 24, 2010 by Vikanohara

[Asashosakari 19,403]

Go figure, I had three rikishi left, only one of whom I projected as a winner. So of course the two projected losers won and the projected winner lost...

---

Senshuraku:

First off, I'm both impressed and a bit terrified how many players entered unwinnable lineups with just one or two picks. (Clapping wildly...) And maybe we should be playing with a short deck more often...even the final day avoided becoming a disaster, producing respectable 14 wins for 66 active players (21.2%). After yesterday's absence I completely expected Kitakachiyama to sit out senshuraku as well, in order to guarantee himself the yusho (as Doitsuyama couldn't both win and maintain a better tie-breaker score even in theory). But alas, Kitakachiyama actually entered a lineup for today - and won! It's an extremely impressive 11-3-1 yusho for him, congratulations! (I am not worthy...) (And I'm wondering if I need to add another "top scores" table based on performance relative to the average score...) The sole (9-5-1) jun-yusho is taken by Doitsuyama who did enter a squad after all, but failed to win. All five players who could have joined him in second place also lost or skipped the day; they in turn are joined by one last player who achieved kachikoshi, Takanokaze. All in all that's 8 KK by 80 players, for a nifty 10% rate. For comparison: Natsu 2006 ended with 7 KK by 149 players, so it could always be worse.

One intrepid player actually managed to score perfect today, and one player earned a doboshi by selecting Wakanosato against Kotoshogiku. Weirdly it's actually the same player who achieved both, namely Terarno. Of course, entering the right lineup becomes easy when you're down to just 4 selectable rikishi. (Showing respect...) With that 2-point boost he became the latest (makekoshi) player to end up with 4 shukun points. As I mentioned yesterday, Doitsuyama was the only one of them already in KK territory - but his worries turn out to be justified as today's entry sufficiently eroded his tie-breaker team (now consisting only of Masatsukasa and Aminishiki) that Takanokaze was able to snatch away the prize by clinching KK today. Omedeto! This is Takanokaze's 3rd shukun-sho.

No surprise in the kanto-sho: Hidariashiyama did not enter picks today, but his lead was so large that it didn't matter at all. Hidari-san is also a repeat sansho winner, having claimed the kanto-sho as well back in Aki 2006 when he made his game debut. And lastly, the gino-sho may be some consolation for Doitsuyama for missing the other prize; his two points today put him out of reach of all competitors (nobody could have beaten him even with a perfect score), and his final total of 39 points is quite impressive in this tough basho. This is Doitsuyama's first S4 sansho, adding to the one yusho-doten and (now) three jun-yusho in his cupboard. Congrats again to all winners! (Shaking head...)

Nagoya basho finishes with a win rate of 37.3%, second-lowest ever behind Natsu 2006. The final five days actually were pretty decent overall, combining for 35.0%, only the 7th-lowest mark. The final division averages: makuuchi 5.74 wins (40.1%), juryo 4.75 wins (33.9%), and makushita 4.88 wins (35.9%). Perhaps indicating that I need to play the lottery this week, all 5-9's in makuuchi did lose today, resulting in a 18 KK / 17 MK split with a two-win addition, so that's what we'll go with. The 8 "real" KK players can likely look forward to very generous treatment again, as usual when the scores need to be adjusted upwards.

I'm all gamed-out for today, so the luck stats will have to wait until tomorrow. Luckily almost all players limited themselves to at most two absent days so most will be represented in the stats, but do keep in mind that the stats will be somewhat less trustworthy than usual, what with the reduced rikishi availability and the strategically missed days and three-rikishi entries (not to mention today's even shorter ones) skewing the numbers.

Thanks for sticking with us during this strange tournament, hopefully things will be back to normal (whatever "normal" is for S4) in Aki basho. (Clapping wildly...)

Edited July 25, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Vikanohara 171]

Two of my three final rikishi won, so if two of them didn't have to play each other, a KK still would have been possible. (Shaking head...)

[Asashosakari 19,403]

Two of my three final rikishi won, so if two of them didn't have to play each other, a KK still would have been possible. :-O

I think you'll be pretty happy with your upwards jump anyway. Now, if only you'd changed your mind a bit earlier and you didn't have to restart from the bottom...dare I say it? You'd likely have secured that makuuchi promotion this time. (Sign of approval...)

[Vikanohara 171]

I don't really regret having intai'd and having to start all over again. At least I can try again to reach Makuuchi, no ? (Sign of approval...)

[Kitakachiyama 9]

Kitakachiyama actually entered a lineup for today - and won! It's an extremely impressive 11-3-1 yusho for him, congratulations! (Sign of approval...)

Thank you very much! :-O

What a turn around after the bad luck period!

I completely expected Kitakachiyama to sit out senshuraku as well, in order to guarantee himself the yusho (as Doitsuyama couldn't both win and maintain a better tie-breaker score even in theory).

That was my strategy for senshuraku, but all my 6 active rikishi looked promising, so I decided to enter. 5 of them won, so I couldn't loose.

And now, after Golynohana's intai, I hope Quad won't disappear right after my yusho, like Kongo did...

[Asashosakari 19,403]

Luck stats for Nagoya 2010:

I fully expected our yusho winner to take the top spot here, but no, another player even out"performed" him. As usual these numbers are limited to people who entered at least 13 days, which 73 of the 80 active players did. I've extended the two lists a bit further than the usual +/- 1.5 this time, mostly because there were handy gaps right below 1.3 on both sides.

Shikona

Edited July 26, 2010 by Asashosakari