Longest ongoing kachikoshi streaks: Back in Business

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Well, Sumo Reference is still down so a) none of the links below will work, and b) I'm unable to double-check certain information, but I'll be out of town from Monday to Friday and may not have net access, so I'd rather open up the thread now for early entries even with those flaws. Thanks to a major wipeout among the lower-rankers we're down to just 8 balloted rikishi for Aki basho, including the yokozuna and all ozeki bar Kaio. As I mentioned early on when I introduced a banzuke for the game, if we get a basho with a very unfavourable scoring distribution (such as most players having the same score), I may suspend the banzuke temporarily and use the combined scores of two tournaments for the next banzuke update. But anyway, on with the game. The following rikishi have had KK for at least 5 straight tournaments, and as always, just predict whether they'll finish with another KK or see their streak snapped:

Edited September 6, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Profomisakari 857]

This time not the all KK pattern.

So I hold it for possible:

1.Hakuho . . 22 +

2.Harumafuji 18 +

3.Kotooshu . 14 +

4.Sokokurai. 10 +

5.Baruto . . .7 +

6.Tokusegawa .5 +

6.Karatsuumi .5 -

6.Fukugoriki .5 +

At the end we should have 11 fighters with 5 or more KK in a row.

Profomisakari

[Asojima 2,874]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Sokokurai KK

5. Baruto KK

6. Tokusegawa MK

Karatsuumi KK

Fukugoriki MK

and 12 for November.

[ryafuji 814]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Sokokurai MK

5. Baruto KK

6. Tokusegawa MK

Karatsuumi MK

Fukugoriki KK

Tie-break: 14

Edited September 8, 2010 by ryafuji

[Mmikasazuma 12]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Sokokurai KK

5. Baruto KK

6. Tokusegawa MK

Karatsuumi MK

Fukugoriki KK

Tie-break: 13

[Ganzohnesushi 516]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Sokokurai KK

5. Baruto KK

6. Tokusegawa MK

Karatsuumi MK

Fukugoriki KK

Tie-break: 15

Ganzohnesushi

Edited September 9, 2010 by Ganzohnesushi

[Gusoyama 103]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Sokokurai MK

5. Baruto KK

6. Tokusegawa MK

Karatsuumi MK

Fukugoriki MK

TB: 13

[kuroimori 1,634]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Sokokurai KK

5. Baruto KK

6. Tokusegawa MK

Karatsuumi MK

Fukugoriki KK

Tiebreaker: 13

kuroimori

[Fay 1,677]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Sokokurai MK

5. Baruto MK

6. Tokusegawa KK

Karatsuumi MK

Fukugoriki KK

Tiebreaker: 7

[Barang 0]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Sokokurai MK

5. Baruto KK

6. Tokusegawa MK

Karatsuumi MK

Fukugoriki MK

Tie-break 11

[Holleshoryu 16]

kk for all of them and 12

[Achiyama 1,245]

[Jejima 1,385]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Sokokurai MK

5. Baruto KK

6. Tokusegawa MK

Karatsuumi KK

Fukugoriki KK

TB = 13

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Whoops, almost forgot the deadline of my own game.

+ Hakuho

+ Harumafuji

+ Kotooshu

- Sokokurai

+ Baruto

- Tokusegawa

- Karatsuumi

+ Fukugoriki

TB 11

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Welcome to another edition of whatever-this-game's-called-for-short! I'm very happy to announce the presence of 13 players this time, second in number only to the first testing run which had 17. And a special hello to newcomers kuroimori and Ganzohnesushi, as well as returning player Barang.

Here are the selection stats:

Player	Haku	Haru	Oshu	Soko	Baru	Toku	Kara	Fuku	TB
Holleshoryu	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	12
Profomisakari	+	+	+	+	+	+	-	+	11
Asojima	+	+	+	+	+	-	+	-	12
Mmikasazuma	+	+	+	+	+	-	-	+	13
kuroimori	+	+	+	+	+	-	-	+	13
Ganzohnesushi	+	+	+	+	+	-	-	+	15
Jejima	+	+	+	-	+	-	+	+	13
Asashosakari	+	+	+	-	+	-	-	+	11
ryafuji	+	+	+	-	+	-	-	+	14
Achiyama	+	+	+	-	+	-	-	+	16
Gusoyama	+	+	+	-	+	-	-	-	13
Barang	+	+	+	-	+	-	-	-	11
Fay	+	+	+	-	-	+	-	+	7
[/td]	13:0

13:0

13:0

6:7

12:1

3:10

3:10

10:3

We do have one pair of fully identical entries this basho, with Mmikasazuma receiving preference over kuroimori due to her earlier entry, should a yusho decision come down to these two. Of course, other pairings may also end up in that situation if both players have identical ballots and whiffed on the tie-breaker in different ways. In fact, I'm somewhat tempted to add one more last-ditch tie-breaker before the "earliest entry" decision, namely "smallest difference to TB". I've shied away from including that because I don't want to discourage players from entering wacky tie-breaker picks (I'd be pretty annoyed if everybody picked either 12 or 13 this basho...), but if it only comes into play after all brackets have been exhausted, perhaps the effect won't be too large. Any opinions about this? And yes, I know it's not good form to change the rules after starting this edition of the game, so if you're opposed to it on those grounds, please let me know, too.

Anyway, unsurprisingly the yokozuna and three ozeki earned (near-)universal approval of their KK chances; only Fay serves as a Baruto detractor. Three of the lower-ranked rikishi also received somewhat lopsided 10:3 calls, optimistically on Fukugoriki and negatively on Tokusegawa and Karatsuumi. Sokokurai provides the biggest suspense after getting just about the same number of selections in either direction. The tie-breaker guesses cover a fairly large range from 11 to 16 plus Fay's extreme outlier of 7, with only 13 receiving more than two selections. Holleshoryu takes the all-optimism slot this basho after Profomisakari declined to make his usual choice.

Good luck everyone!

[Jejima 1,385]

In fact, I'm somewhat tempted to add one more last-ditch tie-breaker before the "earliest entry" decision, namely "smallest difference to TB". I've shied away from including that because I don't want to discourage players from entering wacky tie-breaker picks (I'd be pretty annoyed if everybody picked either 12 or 13 this basho...), but if it only comes into play after all brackets have been exhausted, perhaps the effect won't be too large. Any opinions about this? And yes, I know it's not good form to change the rules after starting this edition of the game, so if you're opposed to it on those grounds, please let me know, too.

Not being one to talk (recalling the beta Bench World Cup), I would also be loathe to change the rules mid-game - especially as this game is 'established', but I agree that another tie-breaker, before the 'earliest entry' would be good for future basho.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Not being one to talk (recalling the beta Bench World Cup), I would also be loathe to change the rules mid-game - especially as this game is 'established', but I agree that another tie-breaker, before the 'earliest entry' would be good for future basho.

After cooling off for a few days I agree, so we'll (probably) be adding this for future tournaments.

Quick results note: Everybody's scored two points today courtesy of Hak'n'Osh, and backup guy Raiko achieved the minimum-time KK on Day 7 and will be graduating to the ballot for Kyushu. That will also be his fourth straight basho at a new career-high rank, and with a 6-1 the 18-year-old would even be making a surprise makushita debut.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 10:

Still not much to report on, points-wise. Baruto achieved his kachikoshi today, giving us 12 players sharing the lead as Fay's pessimism did not work out. (You need to get Baruto to drink more. ;-)) A few more lower division wannabes decided their fates - young prospect Masunoyama improved to 4-1 yesterday and took a big step towards his sekitori debut, while 28-year-old Maenofuji saw his run ended in high sandanme. Same pair of results today: the role of the fortunate ballot graduate is filled by Masumiura this time, a 19-year-old semi-prospect from Mihogaseki-beya, and Mongolian Kokonoe hope Chiyoshoma fell to makekoshi in low sandanme. The tie-breaker range stands at 6-22.

Edited September 21, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 11:

Another three players were ousted from the lead courtesy of Fukugoriki's 6th kachikoshi today. The backup ranks are starting to provide ballot fodder for Kyushu: Shin-juryo Shironoryu secured an early kachikoshi, hefty collegiate Fukao likely earned a juryo debut of his own, and sandanme veteran Goki also achieved his 5th straight KK. The only blemish of the day is Kotookuyama's fourth loss in high sandanme, delaying the prospect's makushita debut a bit more. Here are the current standings:

Day 11: 4/8 Decisions, TB 10-21
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	4	11
1	Profomisakari	4	11
3	Holleshoryu	4	12
4	Jejima	4	13
4	kuroimori	4	13
4	Mmikasazuma	4	13
7	ryafuji	4	14
8	Ganzohnesushi	4	15
9	Achiyama	4	16
10	Barang	3	11
11	Asojima	3	12
12	Gusoyama	3	13
13	Fay	3	7

That Doublesakari lead won't last much longer. At least we're going to have a much bigger ballot again next time...

Edited September 22, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 12:

Another majority prediction came in today with Karatsuumi's fourth loss. Jejima and Holleshoryu are next on the train out of leaderville, and repromoted ozeki Asojima even drops two points behind. The future ballot size is up to 11 now with prospect Nionoumi's KK.

Day 12: 5/8 Decisions, TB 11-20
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	5	11
1	Profomisakari	5	11
3	kuroimori	5	13
3	Mmikasazuma	5	13
5	ryafuji	5	14
6	Ganzohnesushi	5	15
7	Achiyama	5	16
8	Barang	4	11
9	Holleshoryu	4	12
10	Gusoyama	4	13
10	Jejima	4	13
12	Fay	4	7
13	Asojima	3	12

One of the open decisions is of course Harumafuji's, who was unanimously picked for KK, but the other two bear watching now: Tokusegawa was already down to 3-7 but has rallied with back-to-back wins now, and Sokokurai also stands at 5-7, but has had back-to-back losses instead. From among the remaining leaders only three players have picked MK for both: yours truly (TB guess 11), ryafuji (14) and Achiyama (16). I'm pretty obviously out with that TB prediction, while the other two have a credible shot at hitting it bulls-eye. If both miss, ryafuji will take the yusho by earliest entry. (And if the TB finishes at 15, your humble rulemaker gets off scot-free because the proposed rule change would have made no difference...) Should either Tokusegawa or Sokokurai actually rally to 7-7, we'll reconsider the yusho race implications.

Up for Day 13: Tokusegawa-Kisenosato, Sokokurai-Tosanoumi (ohh, maybe 7-7 isn't so far-fetched after all...), and in the backup squad we have KK/MK deciders for borderline prospect Tochinohama (against Futeno and his intai-if-MK considerations) as well as veteran Kozan, plus sekitori Hochiyama in MK avoidance action (5-7, up against Sagatsukasa who's got his back against the makushita wall for his own part).

[Asojima 2,874]

... repromoted ozeki Asojima even drops two points behind.

Sic transit gloria mundi.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 13:

Harumafuji is KK at last, while Tokusegawa's run came to its end at the hands of Kisenosato (why does he never get amped up until he's got 7 losses?!). That was bad news for Profomisakari whose departure reduces the leading group to six players.

Both Kozan and Tochinohama secured their KK, so the tie-breaker (and next basho's ballot) is up to at least 14.

Day 13: 7/8 Decisions, TB 14-19
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	ryafuji	7	14
2	Ganzohnesushi	7	15
3	Achiyama	7	16
4	Asashosakari	7	11
4	kuroimori	7	13
4	Mmikasazuma	7	13
7	Barang	6	11
7	Gusoyama	6	13
7	Jejima	6	13
7	Profomisakari	6	11
11	Asojima	5	12
11	Fay	5	7
11	Holleshoryu	5	12

Sokokurai hangs in there after today's not entirely surprising win over juryo-bound Tosanoumi, but gets a much tougher assignment with joi-jin Kyokutenho tomorrow. Backup lead Hochiyama also staved off the MK for another day and has drawn always dangerous Hoshikaze for Day 14, while Kaisei (6-7 after a loss today) goes against Wakakoyu with his back against the wall for the first time this basho. The two remaining 3-3's in toritekiland will also be settled tomorrow, as smaller twin Akinokawa goes against promising Kotokobai (BTW, both are having a very nice tournament at career-high ranks after big 6-1 jumps), and well-pedigreed Onami faces 29-year-old sandanme veteran Saito.

Edited September 24, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 14:

And Sokokurai's kachikoshi quest is still alive after he nicely turned the tables on Kyokutenho in their yotsu battle today. Things didn't work quite so well for our four remaining backups - Hochiyama and Kaisei were unable to avoid going MK following their huge 8-7 jumps after Nagoya, and prospects Akinokawa and Onami fell to 3-4 in the upper half of sandanme. The penultimate standings:

Day 14: 7/8 Decisions, TB 14-15
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	ryafuji	7	14
2	Ganzohnesushi	7	15
3	Achiyama	7	16
3	Asashosakari	7	11
3	kuroimori	7	13
3	Mmikasazuma	7	13
7	Barang	6	11
7	Gusoyama	6	13
7	Jejima	6	13
7	Profomisakari	6	11
11	Asojima	5	12
11	Fay	5	7
11	Holleshoryu	5	12

The intriguing yusho situation:

If Sokokurai wins against Kokkai tomorrow, Ganzohnesushi will not only notch his 8th point, he'll also hit the tie-breaker on the nose and take the yusho with the best score possible. (In his game debut!) Mmikasazuma and kuroimori also predicted a KK for the Chinese makuuchi debutant and will take the jun-yusho, equal on points but with inaccurate TBs.

Should Sokokurai lose, ryafuji will get point #8 and match the tie-breaker exactly for the yusho victory, and Achiyama and Asashosakari will earn the jun-yusho. I do have to say, that may well be the most exciting yusho race we've ever seen with just one bout in play. (And finally a basho in which the tie-breaker rule is truly worthwhile...)

Some possibly pointless stats: For his career Kokkai is 3-2 when facing a 7-7 rikishi without being 7-7 himself, but hasn't been involved in such a bout since 2006. (Incidentally, he's 3-1 when he is also 7-7, and 2-0 when only he is 7-7, so he appears to like these bouts.) Sokokurai's only such appearance came in March when he beat Wakatenro in a 7-7 matchup. He entered senshuraku in the most recent two basho at 8-6, losing against Kyokunankai both times (who was once 5-9, once 9-5). Back in makushita he twice entered senshuraku 3-3 and beat juryo opponents both times. He also had a loss against a 7-7 juryo once when he was 4-2.

Should be an interesting decision either way. BTW, did you notice that there isn't a single makuuchi rikishi at 7-7 above M13, and only two altogether? Don't think I've ever seen the division so devoid of them before. Okay, querying the DB I see we've had four recent tournaments with just two 7-7 maegashira (2006.03, 2006.07, 2008.01, 2008.11), but in each of those an ozeki was also 7-7. The closest with two or fewer altogether was back in Natsu 2000 with just a single rikishi (who proceeded to lose to a 7-7 juryo).

Edited September 25, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 15:

Sokokurai secured the last-minute kachikoshi today, making Ganzohnesushi our well-deserved yusho winner! (Applauding...) Kuroimori and Mmikasazuma earn the jun-yusho with perfect 8/8 scores of their own, but without the tie-breaker. And my ozeki promotion is ruined yet again by this one single bout, sigh... No player other than our yusho winner managed to guess the tie-breaker correctly. Anyway, here are the final standings:

Day 15: 8/8 Decisions, TB 15
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Ganzohnesushi	8	15
2	kuroimori	8	13
2	Mmikasazuma	8	13
4	Achiyama	7	16
4	Asashosakari	7	11
4	Profomisakari	7	11
4	ryafuji	7	14
8	Asojima	6	12
8	Barang	6	11
8	Gusoyama	6	13
8	Holleshoryu	6	12
8	Jejima	6	13
13	Fay	5	7

Unlike I feared there's actually a nice scoring distribution among the 13 players. The backup squad did very well this time, entering 16 rikishi strong and producing no less than 9 graduates to the ballot this basho. Here's the new lineup:

Edited September 26, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Scores for banzuke purposes:

Ganzohnesushi 10 (8+top+tb)

kuroimori 9 (8+top)

Mmikasazuma 9 (8+top)

Achiyama 7

Asashosakari 7

Profomisakari 7

ryafuji 7

Asojima 6

Barang 6

Gusoyama 6

Holleshoryu 6

Jejima 6

Fay 5

Total: 91 / 13 = 7.00 ---> +1 win

Banzuke for Kyushu 2010:

Asojima (Oe, 7-8)		 O   ---
Mmikasazuma (Ke, 10-5 J)  S1  Asashosakari (S1e, 8-7)
---					   S2  Ganzohnesushi (NR, 11-4 Y)
Achiyama (Kw, 8-7)		K1  kuroimori (NR, 10-5 J)
ryafuji (M1w, 8-7)		K2  ---
Sashohitowa (S1w, kosho)  M1  Vikanohara (S2w, kosho)
Profomisakari (M4e, 8-7)  M2  Jejima (M1e, 7-8)
Gusoyama (M2e, 7-8)	   M3  shumitto (M3e, kosho)
Holleshoryu (M3w, 7-8)	M4  Barang (NR, 7-8)
Fay (M2w, 6-9)			M5  ---

Kadobanity ensues for Asojima.

Edited September 26, 2010 by Asashosakari