LOKKS (Longest ongoing KK streak)

[Profomisakari 857]

Achiyama contacted me, and asked, if the Longest ongoing KK game is cancelled, because he is missing an invitation.

Of course this game is not mine, but Asashosakaris.

But of course I too miss this invitation.

I think for me, Pierre had not enough time found to this day to write the invitation.

But Pierres has after Aki Basho in this Posting ( Longest ongoing KK Aki 2010 ) included all essential data, so I must only copy them.

Here they are:

1. Hakuho 23

2. Harumafuji 19

3. Kotooshu 15

4. Sokokurai 11

5. Baruto 8

6. Fukugoriki 6

7. Shironoryu 5

Masunoyama 5

Akiseyama 5

Nionoumi 5

Tochinohama 5

Goki 5

Raiko 5

Masumiura 5

Kozan 5

For the Tiebreaker he found out 6 names.

I found these six in the banzuke:

Kotokasuga

Kotokuni

Saishin

Sasakiyama

Daiseiho

Kotowatanabe

For the ruoles let me copy Asashosakaris Posting before Aki basho and try to adapt for KyuShu:

The scoring as always: One point each for a correctly predicted KK or a correctly predicted MK, for a maximum of 15 points. Collect more points than anybody else (or get through the below-mentioned tie-breaker rules the furthest, in case everybody scores 8 points this time) and you're the winner of the KyuShu 2010 yusho.

First tie-breaker: From among those 15 guys up there and the further approximately 6 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. In other words, your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 21 or so. . . .

Next tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in reverse order, i.e. starting at Kozan. Final tie-breaker, should some players be tied across everything else (and this time this rule may well come into play): earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so as not to put players at a disadvantage who made their entries before the publication of the list and would otherwise be forced to change their guess (and lose their possible advantage for the final tie-breaker). Those players may nevertheless be disadvantaged on the first tie-breaker, of course, so it's your call and at your own risk if you want to change your entry just to adjust your tiebreaker guess.

Deadline: Shonichi 10am JST.

Excuse me Pierre to have joined in your work. I hope to have given the essential data and the rules correctly.

If not, please correct it.

But I think its time to start the game.

Have all a good game!

Profomisakari

[Asashosakari 19,355]

Saved me some work. (Exclamation...) I'll just add the clickable list of rikishi to make it easier for players.

Ballot:

Edited November 11, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Gusoyama 103]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji MK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Sokokurai MK

5. Baruto KK

6. Fukugoriki KK

7. Shironoryu KK

Masunoyama MK

Fukao KK

Nionoumi MK

Tochinohama MK

Goki MK

Raiko KK

Masumiura MK

Kozan KK

Tiebreaker 12

[Asashosakari 19,355]

Almost forgot to mention - and in fact, I probably would have forgotten about it even if I'd started the thread myself - as of Kyushu basho, I'm adding in the "smallest (absolute) difference to TB score" tie-breaker between the bracket comparison and the "earliest entry" tie-breaker. So, if the correct TB is 14, and two players with otherwise identical entries had TB guesses of 15 and 16, the player who picked 15 wins the game, even if his entry was the later one. Guesses of 13 and 15 would be considered tied in that situation, and the earlier entry tie-break would apply.

Keep in mind that this situation is extremely unlikely to happen with 15 rikishi on the ballot, so don't try to obsess too much about strategic tie-breaker picking; if you're tied on points, the best tie-breaker guess is still the one that hits exactly (but you may have to make a wacky guess for it), because it's very likely to win you the game outright. Just look at Ganzohnesushi in Aki basho. (Exclamation...)

[Asojima 2,874]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji MK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Sokokurai KK

5. Baruto KK

6. Fukugoriki MK

7. Shironoryu MK

Masunoyama MK

Fukao MK (Akiseyama)

Nionoumi KK

Tochinohama MK

Goki MK

Raiko MK

Masumiura KK

Kozan MK

Tiebreaker 9

A nasty basho for 9 of the 15 club members.

[Asashosakari 19,355]

Fukao MK (Akiseyama)

Whoops. I even saw that Profo remembered to change the shikona and I still forgot about it in my post...

[Holleshoryu 16]

Hakuho KK

Harumafuji KK

Kotooshu KK

Sokokurai KK

Baruto KK

Fukugoriki MK

Shironoryu KK

Masunoyama KK

Fukao KK (Akiseyama)

Nionoumi MK

Tochinohama MK

Goki KK

Raiko MK

Masumiura MK

Kozan KK

Tiebreaker 13

[Achiyama 1,245]

My picks are:

Hakuho KK

Harumafuji KK

Kotooshu KK

Sokokurai MK

Baruto KK

Fukugoriki KK

Shironoryu KK

Masunoyama MK

Akiseyama MK

Nionoumi MK

Tochinohama KK

Goki MK

Raiko KK

Masumiura KK

Kozan KK

Tiebreaker # 14

Achiyama

[Profomisakari 857]

Like some bashos in the past I say again:

All candidates KK

(please see Jejimas picks in the 21 game!)

The tiebreaker should be 13.

Profomisakari

[Sashohitowa 6]

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Sokokurai MK

5. Baruto KK

6. Fukugoriki MK

7. Shironoryu MK

Masunoyama MK

Fukao MK

Nionoumi MK

Tochinohama MK

Goki KK

Raiko KK

Masumiura MK

Kozan KK

TB10

[ryafuji 814]

Hakuho KK

Harumafuji MK

Kotooshu KK

Sokokurai MK

Baruto KK

Fukugoriki MK

Shironoryu MK

Masunoyama KK

Akiseyama MK

Nionoumi KK

Tochinohama MK

Goki MK

Raiko MK

Masumiura KK

Kozan MK

Tiebreak:11

[kuroimori 1,634]

Hakuho KK

Harumafuji MK

Kotooshu KK

Sokokurai MK

Baruto KK

Fukugoriki MK

Shironoryu MK

Masunoyama MK

Akiseyama KK

Nionoumi MK

Tochinohama KK

Goki MK

Raiko KK

Masumiura MK

Kozan KK

Tiebreaker 10

Edited November 13, 2010 by kuroimori

[Fay 1,677]

1. Hakuho kk

2. Harumafuji mk

3. Kotooshu kk

4. Sokokurai mk

5. Baruto kk

6. Fukugoriki mk

7. Shironoryu kk

Masunoyama kk

Akiseyama mk

Nionoumi mk

Tochinohama kk

Goki mk

Raiko mk

Masumiura kk

Kozan mk

Tiebreaker 9

[Vikanohara 171]

KK Hakuho

KK Harumafuji

KK Kotooshu

MK Sokokurai

KK Baruto

KK Fukugoriki

KK Shironoryu

MK Masunoyama

KK Akiseyama

MK Nionoumi

KK Tochinohama

KK Goki

MK Raiko

MK Masumiura

MK Kozan

tie-breaker 12

[Achiyama 1,245]

Like some bashos in the past I say again:

All candidates KK

(please see Jejimas picks in the 21 game!)

The tiebreaker should be 13.

Profomisakari

Sorry to interfere, but I think there is a mistake.

Reading the rules, Profo's tie-breaker CANNOT be 13.

If he choses KK for all candidates the tie-breaker should be 21. Am I right, Asashosakari?

Best Regards,

Achiyama

Edited November 13, 2010 by Achiyama

[Asashosakari 19,355]

If he choses KK for all candidates the tie-breaker should be 21. Am I right, Asashosakari?

There's no rule against picking a tie-break number that disagrees with your ballot selections, so Profomisakari's entry is fine.

[Achiyama 1,245]

If he choses KK for all candidates the tie-breaker should be 21. Am I right, Asashosakari?

There's no rule against picking a tie-break number that disagrees with your ballot selections, so Profomisakari's entry is fine.

Thanks for clarifying this, but it doesn't make sense to me.

Here is the rule:

First tie-breaker: From among those 15 guys up there and the further approximately 6 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. In other words, your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 21 or so. . . .

If you chose all KK, the logics is that you expect 21 KK in total. Why would you put a different number???

Edited November 13, 2010 by Achiyama

[Asashosakari 19,355]

If you chose all KK, the logics is that you expect 21 KK in total. Why would you put a different number???

Maybe he thinks that every rikishi is 60% likely to finish KK. Logically, that means he should put a KK prediction for everybody, but expect only 21 * 0.6 = 12.6 KK in total. I'm not questioning how players arrive at their selections.

[Achiyama 1,245]

If you chose all KK, the logics is that you expect 21 KK in total. Why would you put a different number???

Maybe he thinks that every rikishi is 60% likely to finish KK. Logically, that means he should put a KK prediction for everybody, but expect only 21 * 0.6 = 12.6 KK in total. I'm not questioning how players arrive at their selections.

Thanks again. I don't want to sound picky. I am pretty new to this game and I just want to learn what tactics are out there.

Respect and Regards,

Achiyama

[Mmikasazuma 12]

Hakuho KK

Harumafuji KK

Kotooshu KK

Sokokurai KK

Baruto KK

Fukugoriki KK

Shironoryu KK

Masunoyama MK

Akiseyama KK

Nionoumi KK

Tochinohama MK

Goki MK

Raiko KK

Masumiura MK

Kozan MK

Tiebreaker 13

[Asashosakari 19,355]

One of these years I'll be correct to expect a MK for Sokokurai:

+ Hakuho

+ Harumafuji

+ Kotooshu

- Sokokurai

+ Baruto

+ Fukugoriki

+ Shironoryu

+ Masunoyama

- Akiseyama

- Nionoumi

- Tochinohama

- Goki

- Raiko

- Masumiura

- Kozan

TB 9

Must be my most negative ballot in quite a while... 2 hours left till the deadline, if somebody still wants to give it a shot. ;-)

[Jejima 1,385]

1. Hakuho 23 - KK

2. Harumafuji 19 - KK

3. Kotooshu 15 - KK

4. Sokokurai 11 - MK

5. Baruto 8 - KK

6. Fukugoriki 6 - KK

7. Shironoryu 5 - MK

Masunoyama 5 - MK

Akiseyama 5 - KK

Nionoumi 5 - KK

Tochinohama 5 - KK

Goki 5 - KK

Raiko 5 - KK

Masumiura 5 - MK

Kozan 5 - MK

TB = 14

[Barang 0]

Hakuho KK

Harumafuji KK

Kotooshu KK

Sokokurai MK

Baruto KK

Fukugoriki KK

Shironoryu KK

Masunoyama MK

Akiseyama KK

Nionoumi KK

Tochinohama MK

Goki MK

Raiko KK

Masumiura MK

Kozan MK

Tiebreaker 12

[Asashosakari 19,355]

Welcome to Kyushu basho! (Applauding...) And it promises to be an exciting competition here as - beyond Hakuho and two of the ozeki - there's almost no bandwagoning this basho:

Player	Haku	Haru	Oshu	Soko	Baru	Fuku	Shiro	Masun	Akise	Nio	Tochi	Goki	Raiko	Masum	Kozan	TB
Profomisakari	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	13
Mmikasazuma	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	-	+	+	-	-	+	-	-	13
Holleshoryu	+	+	+	+	+	-	+	+	+	-	-	+	-	-	+	13
Asashosakari	+	+	+	-	+	+	+	+	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	9
Barang	+	+	+	-	+	+	+	-	+	+	-	-	+	-	-	12
Vikanohara	+	+	+	-	+	+	+	-	+	-	+	+	-	-	-	12
Achiyama	+	+	+	-	+	+	+	-	-	-	+	-	+	+	+	14
Jejima	+	+	+	-	+	+	-	-	+	+	+	+	+	-	-	14
Sashohitowa	+	+	+	-	+	-	-	-	-	-	-	+	+	-	+	10
Asojima	+	-	+	+	+	-	-	-	-	+	-	-	-	+	-	9
Gusoyama	+	-	+	-	+	+	+	-	+	-	-	-	+	-	+	12
Fay	+	-	+	-	+	-	+	+	-	-	+	-	-	+	-	9
ryafuji	+	-	+	-	+	-	-	+	-	+	-	-	-	+	-	11
kuroimori	+	-	+	-	+	-	-	-	+	-	+	-	+	-	+	10
[/td]	14:0

9:5

14:0

4:10

14:0

8:6

9:5

5:9

8:6

6:8

6:8

5:9

8:6

5:9

6:8

The most average picks were made by our final entrant Barang, with some distance to everybody else; the only rikishi for whom he's on the minority side is Nionoumi. The most outlandish picks were entered by kadoban ozeki Asojima, narrowly ahead of Profomisakari's all-KK slate and ryafuji. Nice coverage on the tie-breaker side as well so there's a good chance that, should we end up with multiple points leaders, the yusho decision won't go to the brackets. The tie-breaker average is 11.5, BTW, time to see if the wisdom of the crowds actually works. (Neener, neener...)

Too bad our debut yusho winner from Aki basho, Ganzohnesushi, hasn't stopped by to defend his title. Nevertheless, we do have a record number of 14 players present, which I'm very grateful to see. Incidentally, since I didn't get to start the thread - for this basho's name we'll go with "Monsters Unleashed", in honour of heavyweight ballot debutants (and shin-juryo) Masunoyama and Akiseyama.

First results around the middle weekend as usual.

Edited November 14, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,355]

Day 8:

No KK yet on nakabi, but a multitude of bad news have already come in. Harumafuji's makekoshi is official now, and fresh ballot addition Goki collected a quick 0-4 in his bid for a makushita return. As a result of these two decisions we have a nicely divided standings table for the moment:

Day 8: 2/15 Decisions, TB 0-17
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asojima	2	9
1	Fay	2	9
3	kuroimori	2	10
4	ryafuji	2	11
5	Gusoyama	2	12
6	Asashosakari	1	9
7	Barang	1	12
8	Mmikasazuma	1	13
9	Achiyama	1	14
10	Sashohitowa	0	10
11	Vikanohara	0	12
12	Holleshoryu	0	13
12	Profomisakari	0	13
14	Jejima	0	14

With Daiseiho and talented Saishin two backup rikishi also pressed the down button on the banzuke elevator already. It might get rather empty for the Hatsu game - only 7 ballot rikishi and no backuppers are currently in positive territory, 5 more are at 4-4 or 2-2.