Nagoya-basho 2011 banzuke

[Jaak 7]

Starting from the upper end, first five are known

Hakuho Y yusho 13:2

Baruto I-O1, 10:5

Harumafuji L-O1 10:5

Kaio I-O2 9:6

Kotooshu kadoban L-O2 3:8:4

But then it gets problematic. Because E-K1 had 12:3!

Wakanosato, mere 11:4 and mere W-K1 caused a haridashi in March 2003, and occupied it.

How many rows shall sekiwake have in Nagoya, and who shall occupy them?

[Asashosakari 19,273]

This will not be anywhere near the real thing, but this is what I would do for the juryo division if a "no MK promotions" policy was in place:

Kimurayama

Edited May 22, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Chisaiyama 11]

This basho is going to be wacky enough that I doubt if the kyokai will be willing to open up a second or hari dashi entry at sekiwake. IMHO the Sanyaku will look like this:

Y1E Hakuho[/td]O1W HarumafujiO2E KaioO2W Kotooshu (Kadoban)S1E KotoshogikuS1W KisenosatoK1E KakuryuK1W GoeidoM1E TochinoshinM1W Yoshikaze

That's about as far as I've got it figured at this point. Also remember if you are playing the Guess The Banzuke game, that the Kyokai has reduced the numbers of Makuuchi from 42 to 40 and Juryo from 28 to 26 starting with the upcoming Nagoya basho.

Also in remarks following the current basho Takanohanna, head of the Judging department and therefore likely to have the last word in the reorganization of the banzuke, has said that none of the current juryo will be demoted. The implication of this, to me at least, is that possibly they will move all the existing rikishi in each division up to fill in the holes left from the expulsions and then assess promotions/demotions within those divisions, then raise sufficient makushita up to fill in the 13 Juryo spots. There are other possiblities of course but this seems, to me at least, to be the most likely and the fairest to the rikishi involved. If any other oyakata than Takanohana were in charge I wouldn't think it likely.

Had they created a specific banzuke for this un-basho that is what they would have had to have done: compress the holes out of the divisions and like dominoes falling, filled in the gaps from the lower divisions. Thus it makes sense for them to do that for Nagoya.

OTOH, all that having been said, if they did like Kakuryu's performance sufficiently to open the third slot it would be at S2E and would result in the dangling M16E position being dropped, at least for that one basho.

Edited May 22, 2011 by Chisaiyama

[EizoShita 0]

This basho is going to be wacky enough that I doubt if the kyokai will be willing to open up a second or hari dashi entry at sekiwake. IMHO the Sanyaku will look like this:

Y1E Hakuho[/td][td]O1E BarutoO1W HarumafujiO2E KaioO2W Kotooshu (Kadoban)S1E KotoshogikuS1W KisenosatoK1E KakuryuK1W GoeidoM1E TochinoshinM1W Yoshikaze

Why not M1W Tosayutaka ?

[Fay 1,677]

This basho is going to be wacky enough that I doubt if the kyokai will be willing to open up a second or hari dashi entry at sekiwake. IMHO the Sanyaku will look like this:

I wonder what else should ensure a sekiwake promotion if not a 12-3 from Komosubi East?

[Asojima 2,874]

My Juryo:

Tamaasuka J1 Tochinonada

Aoiyama J2 Yoshiazuma

Bushuyama J3 Tamanoshima

Takanoyama J4 Hochiyama

Kanbayashi J5 Kokkai

Masutani J6 Kaonishiki

Sadanoumi J7 Sadanofuji

Sotairyu J8 Akiseyama

Shironoryu J9 Masuraumi

Tsurugidake J10 Minami

Chiyonokuni J11 Hamanishiki

Kakizoe J12 Arawashi

Miyogiru J13 Nionoumi

When is an MK promotion really an MK demotion? When you first adjust the Natsu rankings to up fill the missing slots before applying the basho results.

This is the thinking of one who is perpetually in the bottow 1/3 of the GTB ranking. (Sign of approval...)

Edited May 23, 2011 by Asojima

[Keishikazawa 0]

Were any reasons given as to why the Kyokai changed the number of sekitori?

[Asashosakari 19,273]

Definitely not my GTB entry, but for kicks here's a "strict rules" Sekiquad-style banzuke...one win = two ranks, ties favour the better record, bonus win for being above the KK/MK line, makushita records judged by equivalent W-L differential (i.e. 4-3 = 8-7, 7-0 = 11-4), no requirement for MK to drop in rank. No prior closing of the gaps, that takes care of itself in this approach:

Tosayutaka

Edited May 23, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,273]

Not specfically, but one might assume it was the realization that 17 spots would be even harder to fill with any rhyme and reason. Not that 13 is much easier... If they had the "luxury" of another freebie tournament instead of having to sell a regular product to the Nagoya crowd, I suspect they would be taking more time, e.g. 35/18 -> 38/22 -> 40/26 -> 42/28.

Here's an attempt with just 60 sekitori (38/22, makuuchi down to M14). Too bad they've committed themselves to 66, because this wouldn't be all that bad IMO. Still 6 promotions to makuuchi, as Takamisakari and Tochinonada both join Kimurayama on the way to juryo. Shironoryu/Masuraumi/Tsurugidake down to makushita, 10 promotions from there:

Takamisakari

Edited May 23, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Kaiomitsuki 408]

Tosayutaka

[Pippooshu 1]

Hakuho - Y

Baruto - O1

Harumafuji - O2

Kaio - O3

Kotooshu - O4 (Kadoban)

Kotoshogiku - S1

Kisenosato - S2

Kakuryu - K1

Goeido - K2

Tochinoshin - M1

Yoshikaze - M1

Kaisei - M2

Tosayutaka - M2

Toyonshima - M3

Kyokutenho - M3

Edited May 24, 2011 by Pippooshu

[Asashosakari 19,273]

Tosayutaka

Edited May 24, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Kaiomitsuki 408]

Tosayutaka

[sekitori 492]

Kotoshogiku - S1

Kisenosato - S2

Kakuryu - K1

Goeido - K2

The only fair and reasonable move would be for the NSK to have three rikishis at the sekiwake rank on the Nagoya basho banzuke. Kakuryu deserves promotion to sekiwake and to deny him that promotion would be inexcusable. But if they absolutely insist on having only two, I have a solution. Promote Kakuryu with a 12-3 record and jun-yusho to sekiwake and demote Kinsenosato with an 8-7 record (underperformance for a sekiwake), to komusubi.

I'm sure that virtually everyone will say that demoting a sekiwake with kachi-koshi to komusubi is ridiculous and makes absolutely no sense. I agree. I doubt if such a move has been attempted before--or ever will be. But then again, does the possibility of promoting Kokkai, Bushuyama, Sadanofuji, Shironoryu, Sadanoumi, and Masuraumi, all with 5-10 records, make any sense either? Of course, there are extenuating circumstances behind these so-called "promotions" and considering the present state of sumo, they may be understandable. What's not understandable is the failure to promote a rikishi who has done everything possible to deserve one because of tradition or because of the problems it would create when making up the banzuke.

When people with poor records get promoted, shouldn't people with truly outstanding records also get promoted? In this case, maybe not. (I am not worthy...) (Holiday feeling...)

[Fay 1,677]

We just hope that Kakuryu will not win the Nagoya Basho with a 15-0 record (I am not worthy...) !

Of course I hope.

I really don't understand the reason that makes it so difficult to promote Kakuryu to Sekiwake. What else should he have done to deserve it? Why is it more difficult to build up a banzuke with him as Sekiwake??? Seems I don't get the point. But anyway I think the banzuke makers are creative enough for it.

[Kintamayama 45,081]

I really don't understand the reason that makes it so difficult to promote Kakuryu to Sekiwake.

I agree with you-all the more reason he gets the nod - BECAUSE it's going to be a totally wacky Banzuke. I'm pretty sure there is no way he stays at Komusubi with a 12-3 under any circumstances. Time for the juicy T-Bone again.

Precedence:

1975-Kaiketsu 12-3 at Komusubi haridashi west (4 komusubis then, ranked lowest among them..) , jumped over both Sekiwake (who were 9-6) and occupied Sekiwake East. (Another Komusubi, west Wakamisugi went 11-4 and overtook the two Sekiwake as well..)

2000-Miyabiyama 12-3 at Komusubi west- 4 sekiwake then, three with KKs- landed in the SW spot, behind Sekiwake Musouyama, who got the 13-2 yusho, overtaking a 10-5 Sekiwake Takanonami on the way.

Only two cases, both landing next basho at the top of the Sekiwake heap (not haridashi) except when bettered by a 13-2 yusho.

My conclusion-no way he doesn't get the SE slot with a 12-3 from Komusubi East.

We shall see..

Edited May 25, 2011 by Kintamayama

[Asashosakari 19,273]

My conclusion-no way he doesn't get the SE slot with a 12-3 from Komusubi East.

We shall see..

Kotomitsuki says hi...

[Kintamayama 45,081]

My conclusion-no way he doesn't get the SE slot with a 12-3 from Komusubi East.

We shall see..

Kotomitsuki says hi...

Still one out of three. My alternative has them 2 out of 3. OTOH, this case came later, so maybe it's a change of thought. Maybe it has to do with the fact that there were only three Ozeki and one of the sekiwake went MK. OK, clutching at straws here, but let's settle for no way he's not getting promoted to Sekiwake, east, west, north or south. There simply is no precedent for a non-promotion with a 12-3.

Whatever the case, Fay should already know.

Edited May 25, 2011 by Kintamayama

[ronnie 221]

Tochinoshin (12-3) losing to Harumafuji by yorikiri, 12.6 second

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Won Kanto-sho but not satisfied with the result)

"I am not happy at all. I really wanted to get the last win to go into a yusho kettei-sen. It was a foolish loss. I was so tense. I can only feel nothing except regret now. I really want to aim for Sanyaku next basho."

Would this quote sort of indicate that he's already been told that promotion to Komusubi is a non starter. If it's the case, then it wouldn't be likely that Kakuryu would get Sekiwake either.

[Kintamayama 45,081]

Tochinoshin (12-3) losing to Harumafuji by yorikiri, 12.6 second

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Won Kanto-sho but not satisfied with the result)

"I am not happy at all. I really wanted to get the last win to go into a yusho kettei-sen. It was a foolish loss. I was so tense. I can only feel nothing except regret now. I really want to aim for Sanyaku next basho."

Would this quote sort of indicate that he's already been told that promotion to Komusubi is a non starter. If it's the case, then it wouldn't be likely that Kakuryu would get Sekiwake either.

I don't think it means anything, as at that point nobody knew what the banzuke would look like as the committee hadn't met yet. Nobody could tell him anything. It was just guesswork at that point .

[Keishikazawa 0]

Also in remarks following the current basho Takanohanna, head of the Judging department and therefore likely to have the last word in the reorganization of the banzuke, has said that none of the current juryo will be demoted. The implication of this, to me at least, is that possibly they will move all the existing rikishi in each division up to fill in the holes left from the expulsions and then assess promotions/demotions within those divisions, then raise sufficient makushita up to fill in the 13 Juryo spots. There are other possiblities of course but this seems, to me at least, to be the most likely and the fairest to the rikishi involved. If any other oyakata than Takanohana were in charge I wouldn't think it likely.

Does that also go for Makuuchi? Or does that apply strictly to Juryo? Something tells me that the JSA is not going to be willing to let Takamisakari drop to Juryo if they can avoid it, which means it would be tough to sink Nada as well. But, on the other hand, if we demote all 3 that would leave us with no KK rikishi in juryo. Oh, if only Juryo hadn't been such a horrible train wreck this basho...

Edited May 26, 2011 by Keishikazawa

[Asashosakari 19,273]

My Juryo:

[snip banzuke]

When is an MK promotion really an MK demotion? When you first adjust the Natsu rankings to up fill the missing slots before applying the basho results.

Oddly enough, I've managed to produce something very similar by taking the exact opposite approach. :-O I've taken the original division sizes as given (42/28), treated the retirees as though they received kosho status (i.e., I filled them back into the same spots as before), and organized the active rikishi around them according to their results, then finally removed all the rikishi who are gone and shifted up the others into a 40/26 configuration. Juryo result:

Masunoyama

Edited May 26, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Jejima 1,384]

BTW, in case Chisaiyama's post reads to anyone else the way it does to me, a clarification: The reduction is effective only for Nagoya, not in perpetuity.

Does that mean for September 2011, we will be back to 42 and 28? - or has it been left open as to when (and if) the divisions will return to the larger size?

[Asojima 2,874]

BTW, in case Chisaiyama's post reads to anyone else the way it does to me, a clarification: The reduction is effective only for Nagoya, not in perpetuity.

Does that mean for September 2011, we will be back to 42 and 28? - or has it been left open as to when (and if) the divisions will return to the larger size?

I think there is a strong probability that they will return to "normal" in September which makes Nagoya another basho with some high Makushita encentives.