Longest ongoing kachikoshi streaks

[Asashosakari 19,355]

Welcome to the skill examination edition of...what's that, that was last basho? Well, if anything we're missing even more rikishi than the real thing did as we're down to just six contenders with a KK streak dating back at least five basho. As always you're cordially invited to predict their basho outcomes in very general terms:

[Asojima 2,874]

Hakuho No

Baruto Yes

Masumiura MK

Takarafuji KK

Kosei MK

Hakunishiki KK

Tiebreaker: 12

[Profomisakari 857]

Hakuho n

Baruto y

Masumiura MK

Takarafuji MK

Kosei MK

Hakunishiki MK

TB 10

Profomisakari

Edited June 29, 2011 by Profomisakari

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

Hakuho: No

Baruto: No

Masumiura: KK

Takarafuji: KK

Kosei: KK

Hakunishiki: MK

TB:11

[Fay 1,677]

Hakuho: No

Baruto: No

Masumiura: KK

Takarafuji: MK

Kosei: MK

Hakunishiki: MK

TB:9

[Jejima 1,385]

1. Hakuho No

2. Baruto Yes

3. Masumiura MK

4. Takarafuji KK

Kosei KK

Hakunishiki MK

TB = 16

[Sashohitowa 6]

1 no

2 yes

3 mk

4 kk

5 mk

6 mk

TB 12

[Gusoyama 103]

1. No

2. Yes

3. MK

4. KK

5. KK

6. KK

TB 14

[kuroimori 1,634]

1 Yes

2 Yes

3 MK

4 KK

5 MK

6 KK

Tb 13

kuroimori

[Mmikasazuma 12]

1 No

2 Yes

3 MK

4 KK

5 MK

6 MK

12

[ryafuji 814]

1. Hakuho Yes

2. Baruto Yes

3. Masumiura MK

4. Takarafuji KK

5. Kosei KK

6. Hakunishiki MK

Tiebreak: 10

[Ganzohnesushi 517]

Hakuho Yes

Baruto No

Masumiura KK

Takarafuji KK

Kosei MK

Hakunishiki KK

TB: 13

Ganzohnesushi

[Vikanohara 171]

N Hakuho

Y Baruto

MK Masumiura

KK Takarafuji

KK Kosei

MK Hakunishiki

TB 11

[shumitto 418]

Hakuho

Edited July 9, 2011 by shumitto

[Asashosakari 19,355]

Hakuho No

Baruto Yes

Masumiura KK

Takarafuji KK

Kosei MK

Hakunishiki MK

TB 9

[Asashosakari 19,355]

Welcome to a very well-attended edition of this game with no less than 14 players! (Sign of approval...) Here's the selection summary:

[td]

11:3

Player	Hakuho	Baruto	Masu	Takara	Kosei	Haku	TB
Asojima	-	+	-	+	-	+	12
Profomisakari	-	+	-	-	-	-	10
Pandaazuma	-	-	+	+	+	-	11
Fay	-	-	+	-	-	-	9
Jejima	-	+	-	+	+	-	16
Sashohitowa	-	+	-	+	-	-	12
Gusoyama	-	+	-	+	+	+	14
kuroimori	+	+	-	+	-	+	13
Mmikasazuma	-	+	-	+	-	-	12
ryafuji	+	+	-	+	+	-	10
Ganzohnesushi	+	-	+	+	-	+	13
Vikanohara	-	+	-	+	+	-	11
shumitto	-	+	-	-	-	-	11
Asashosakari	-	+	+	+	-	-	9
[/td]	3:11	4:10	11:3	5:9	4:10

The outcome for the top two picks seems obvious, doesn't it? ;-) Hakuho's fourth consecutive non-zensho and another double-digit record for Baruto are predicted by equal margins. Fortunately the other three outcome combinations were all selected at least once as well so no matter what happens, somebody's going to profit.

The selections for the lower four rikishi are all over the place, which is nice to see. While all four brackets are quite far from a 7/7 equal distribution, there's little agreement among us from rikishi to rikishi - of the 16 possible combinations, no less than 10 have been entered. Overall, the most predictable picks were made by Sashohitowa and Mmikasazuma who voted with the majority in all six brackets. (They also picked the same tie-breaker, so we might have a yusho decision on the earlier entry here...) The most outrageous selection was produced by returning Ganzohnesushi who went against the grain on all but Takarafuji and Kosei.

And finally the tie-breaker picks have followed the recent trend to a wide range of selections. All values from 9 to 14 are represented, plus a far-out prediction of 16 by Jejima. Surely somebody's going to be correct this time? Best of luck, everyone! (On the banzuke...)

[shumitto 418]

Suggestion: my pick this time was equal to Profomisakari's so I've changed my TB to 11. With this few rikishi in the selection pool I assume this can happen quite often. Wouldn't it bring more action (and also make the game a bit more attention-requiring to play) if next time around we were to pick the rikishi who are to get their 5th straight instead of their 6th kachi-koshi so that the guys now in the tiebraker tier would be "regular" picks ? With a possible higher number of rikishi this can be undesirable, but the current crew of 16 looks good.

[Asashosakari 19,355]

Suggestion: my pick this time was equal to Profomisakari's so I've changed my TB to 11. With this few rikishi in the selection pool I assume this can happen quite often. Wouldn't it bring more action (and also make the game a bit more attention-requiring to play) if next time around we were to pick the rikishi who are to get their 5th straight instead of their 6th kachi-koshi so that the guys now in the tiebraker tier would be "regular" picks ? With a possible higher number of rikishi this can be undesirable, but the current crew of 16 looks good.

Well, it's 21 actually... Unless your suggestion is to throw out the current ballot completely and pick only the rikishi who stand at 4 KK, which would make this a different game altogether. In any case, while having just 6 picks isn't optimal, this should be only temporary. We do normally have about 8-11, which I feel is a good number...asking players to make 20+ picks in such an obscure game might be more interesting for those who are willing to make the effort, but might drive away others.

An additional problem I have with that is that it would make the game even more of a lottery than it is already. This basho the backup squad looks very interesting, I agree, but most of the time it's two or three sekitori, two high-ranked makushita, and 15 guys nobody's ever heard of. Making a "combined" prediction about them through the tie-breaker value is one thing, having to make separate predictions about every one of these rikishi is something quite different. (And quite more of a chore, I suspect.)

[Vikanohara 171]

Well, you could of course include sekitori from 4 KK in a row, and all others only the moment they reach 5 successive KK.

Or let us guess a second TB, for instance how many wins the listed rikishi will gather in total ?

[Asashosakari 19,355]

Well, you could of course include sekitori from 4 KK in a row, and all others only the moment they reach 5 successive KK.

Hmm, that's an idea. I'll think about it! ;-)

[Vikanohara 171]

Two guys might need to start turning things around so far :

0-4 Takarafuji (bad news for me)

0-2 Masumiura (good news for me)

While on the other hand, Kosei and our two top guys are still undefeated so far.

Hakunishiki is walking the tightrope for the moment.

[Asashosakari 19,355]

Day 8:

Masumiura became the first rikishi to decide his fate this basho, unfortunately he did it via four straight losses. Chalk one up for the majority view. In addition yokozuna Hakuho reached his near-customary 8-0 kachikoshi to become the first ballot entry for Aki basho.

Day 9:

No further scores for now, but the tie-breaker situation was cleared up in several spots. Ozeki Baruto is the next to reach kachikoshi, while Goeido did not escape the usual komusubi week from hell and finds himself 1-8 after today. And down in sandanme Kitanoumi semi-prospect Shibahara also won't celebrate a fifth straight KK.

Standings:

Day 9: 1/6 Decisions, TB 2-18
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Profomisakari	1	10
1	ryafuji	1	10

3

shumitto

1

11

3

Vikanohara

1

11

5

Asojima

1

12

5

Mmikasazuma

1

12

5

Sashohitowa

1

12

8

kuroimori

1

13

9

Gusoyama

1

14

10

Jejima

1

16

11

Asashosakari

0

9

11

Fay

0

9

13

Pandaazuma

0

11

14

Ganzohnesushi

0

13

Up for tomorrow: Seemingly late-blooming Chinese makushitan Kosei can secure his KK, while no less than four backup sekitori (Kotoshogiku, Takayasu, Takanoyama and Myogiryu) find themselves at 7-2 and with a chance to join us for the next edition. In addition Hishofuji and Higoarashi can improve to 4-1 in makushita, and Aoimaru in sandanme will try to avoid going MK. And of course Hakuho is in play in every bout due to the 15-0 target, he's facing his recent nemesis Kisenosato.

Edited July 18, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,355]

Day 10:

No points scored on this day as Kosei failed to earn his fourth win, but quite a few backup decisions took place. Kaio's loss and subsequent intai announcement made him makekoshi (not that it matters now...), while his prospective successor as Japanese ozeki, Kotoshogiku, secured his 8-2 kachikoshi. He was joined in that by juryo returnee Myogiryu, as well as Hishofuji and Higoarashi in makushita. The tie-breaker range stands at 6-17 now.

Day 11:

And now we're kicking things into overdrive. Kotoshogiku's strong victory over Hakuho kills off the yokozuna's zensho hunt, and adds a point to the tally of the 11 players who predicted that Hakuho would fail to reach that target. (Next basho we're playing with a 14-1 target, as he is now assured of 70 or fewer wins in his last five basho.) Takarafuji fell to a 3-8 makekoshi, which perhaps took a little longer than expected after his 0-6 start. Just three players had the foresight to make that prediction.

That leaves three brackets yet to be decided. Baruto continues to match on and will probably meet his 10-win target easily, needing just one more victory. Kosei failed in his second opportunity to achieve KK in as many days and now stands at 3-3, a record shared by bottom pick Hakunishiki who improved from 2-3 today. Baruto could decide things as early as tomorrow, while the two toriteki will be in action again on Day 13 or later. No further changes to the tie-breaker score today aside from Takarafuji. Current standings:

Day 11: 3/6 Decisions, TB 6-16
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Profomisakari	3	10
2	shumitto	3	11
3	Fay	2	9
4	Vikanohara	2	11
5	Asojima	2	12
5	Mmikasazuma	2	12
5	Sashohitowa	2	12
8	Gusoyama	2	14
9	Jejima	2	16
10	Asashosakari	1	9
11	ryafuji	1	10
12	Pandaazuma	1	11
13	kuroimori	1	13
14	Ganzohnesushi	0	13

In the backup section five sekitori still have to decide their fates, with no less than four of them either 7-4 (Takayasu, Takanoyama) or 4-7 (Wakakoyu, Daido), so things can happen quickly here, too. Just Sotairyu at 6-5 is definitely at least two days away from a decision. The three remaining lower-rankers all had their backs to the wall at 2-3 entering this round, and Notozakura became the first to avoid the makekoshi today, with Wakaryusei and Aoimaru attempting the same tomorrow.

An early yusho preview, assuming that Baruto will be successful in reaching 10 wins:

- Kosei KK, Hakunishiki KK: outright yusho by Gusoyama, the only one to predict that pair of outcomes.

- Kosei KK, Hakunishiki MK: four-way tie between Profomisakari (TB 10), shumitto (11), Vikanohara (11) and Jejima (16). Jejima can't hit that tie-breaker score, so would have to rely on 10 and 11 being wrong as well. Vikanohara and Jejima would prevail on a bracket comparison with identical entries, while Profomisakari and shumitto would go out on the first bracket (which means shumitto will lose any scenario here against Vikanohara even if he hits the tie-breaker). The TB proximity would then decide things between Vikanohara and Jejima, as their odd difference in TB picks means that one of them is guaranteed to be closer than the other.

- Kosei MK, Hakunishiki KK: three-way tie between Profomisakari, shumitto and Asojima (12). Chances are high that one of these players would have the correct tie-breaker here. If not, a bracket comparison would be won by Asojima as the only one to predict a KK for Hakunishiki.

- Kosei MK, Hakunishiki MK: two-way tie between Profomisakari and shumitto (with perfect scores!). With their tie-breaker selections of 10 and 11 we're assured a decision at some point without having to break their tie through the earlier entry method.

With a sudden losing streak and 9-6 finish by Baruto we could see as many as 6 players tied for the lead, but we'll worry about that if it actually happens. For now we're still at 6 yusho contenders even in the orthodox scenarios, which is more than enough. (Bow...)

Or in column format:

Scenario 1

Gusoyama

Scenario 2

TB 7-9: Vikanohara

TB 10: Profomisakari

TB 11-13: Vikanohara

TB 14-15: Jejima

Scenario 3

TB 7-9: Asojima

TB 10: Profomisakari

TB 11: shumitto

TB 12-15: Asojima

Scenario 4

TB 6-10: Profomisakari

TB 11-14: shumitto

Feel free to root for or against as many rikishi as you now need. (I am not worthy...)

Edited July 20, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,355]

Day 12:

Baruto's 10 wins are in the books for another positive majority prediction. Both leaders had that pick so they continue to stay in front.

In other news a lot of tie-break rikishi decided their next banzuke move today. In the sekitori ranks the Naruto duo of Takayasu and Takanoyama are moving up, while Wakakoyu finishes his first foray into the meatgrinder with the expected (but more impressive than I expected) makekoshi. In toriteki-land both Wakaryusei and Aoimaru failed to level their scores at 3-3. Current standings:

Day 12: 4/6 Decisions, TB 8-13
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Profomisakari	4	10
2	shumitto	4	11
3	Vikanohara	3	11
4	Asojima	3	12
4	Mmikasazuma	3	12
4	Sashohitowa	3	12
7	Gusoyama	3	14
7	Jejima	3	16
9	Asashosakari	2	9
9	Fay	2	9
11	ryafuji	2	10
12	kuroimori	2	13
13	Pandaazuma	1	11
14	Ganzohnesushi	0	13

Updated yusho race:

Scenario 1

still Gusoyama, of course

Scenario 2

TB 9: Vikanohara

TB 10: Profomisakari

TB 11-12: Vikanohara

(Jejima now out)

Scenario 3

TB 9: Asojima

TB 10: Profomisakari

TB 11: shumitto

TB 12: Asojima

Scenario 4

TB 8-10: Profomisakari

TB 11: shumitto

Edit: Incidentally, both Kosei and Hakunishiki are in action tomorrow, so at a minimum we'll know exactly which players will have to hope for the tie-breaker to go their way. Or Gusoyama could have the early yusho, of course. :-)

Edited July 21, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,355]

Day 13:

And it's decided! Both Kosei and Hakunishiki extend their KK streaks with a crucial win today, making a yusho winner of Gusoyama in the process. Congratulations! Going against the grain on both these low-ranker picks really paid off.

The current standings:

Day 13: 6/6 Decisions, TB 10-12
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Gusoyama	5	14
2	Profomisakari	4	10
3	shumitto	4	11
3	Vikanohara	4	11
5	Asojima	4	12
6	Jejima	4	16
7	ryafuji	3	10
8	Mmikasazuma	3	12
8	Sashohitowa	3	12
10	kuroimori	3	13
11	Pandaazuma	2	11
12	Asashosakari	2	9
12	Fay	2	9
14	Ganzohnesushi	1	13

Backup rikishi Daido dropped to 5-8 today and won't be showing up on the ballot proper for Aki. Shin-juryo Sotairyu continues to torment us, going from 5-2 to 5-5 to 7-5 and collecting loss #6 today, so the decision on his slot remains open, possibly until senshuraku. Lastly, makushita sophomore Notozakura stands at 3-3 and is going for his decider tomorrow, against Hungarian deshi Masutoo.

With the yusho decided, attention shifts to the top of the banzuke. But first things first - there are currently 45 points on the scoreboard, with 2 or 3 more still to be earned depending on the final tie-breaker score. That works out to a very nice average just under 3.5 points per player, so the win-loss records will see 4 wins added. That leaves kadoban ozeki ryafuji at 7-8 for the moment; however, should Sotairyu and Notozakura fall to MK, he'll hit the tie-breaker and receive the bonus win for it, saving his rank. Shin-ozeki Fay is already done with no hope of hitting the TB and finishes 6-9, to be kadoban next time. And freshly demoted ozeki Asojima finds himself needing the opposite outcome of ryafuji's - he's currently at 8-7 and would improve to 9-6 with a TB of 12, which would be sufficient for immediate repromotion. With a tie-breaker score of 11, it would be tears all around in the ozeki ranks.

Edit: Forgot to mention - since all possible tie-breaker scores are represented among the 5 players with 4 points, it's assured that not all of them will earn jun-yusho honors; it'll be whoever hits the TB, so we'll have one or two jun-yusho.

Edited July 22, 2011 by Asashosakari