Isenoumi-oyakata - old and new

[Muhomatsu]

The Kyokai has announced that Katsunoura Oyakata (former Kitakachidoki) will be assuming the name Isenoumi and taking over the stable as of the 25th of this month. The current Isenoumi Oyakata is to turn 65 on the 26th.

[Asashosakari]

Ah, time to share a little theory that was prompted by Kaio's retirement and the announcement that he would be branching out quickly. At the time I figured that he'd simply be doing it to set up his own operation, which would then turn into Tomozuna-beya at a new location once the current shisho is set to retire. However, a little bit later somebody on 2ch claimed that Tamagaki (ex-Tomonohana) will be the likely Tomozuna successor, which combined with the Isenoumi issue made me wonder one thing: Maybe they're all trying to game the system?

After all, only Tosanoumi and Kaio are eligible to establish new stables from scratch under the current rules, while ex-Kitakachidoki and ex-Tomonohana are not. If all four of them want to become shisho, handing over the existing stables to the second-tier guys is the obvious way to go, even if it looks a bit odd on the surface that a stable's star deshi would rather branch out than follow in his shisho's footsteps.

The first domino might have fallen with the decision to pass Isenoumi-beya to Kitakachidoki now, it'll be interesting to see if the rest plays out that way, too.

[Raishu]

That's an interesting idea you've come up with. (I am not worthy...)

But I'm not sure whether that's the true reason behind the recent kabu/heya actions.

After all, only Tosanoumi and Kaio are eligible to establish new stables from scratch under the current rules, while ex-Kitakachidoki and ex-Tomonohana are not.

We have several other eligible aspirants who COULD open up their own heya if they want to: Dejima, Musashimaru, Takanonami, and Chiyotaikai. Did you leave them out on purpose or do you think these guys wouldn't be interested in playing the game at all?

Furthermore, Miyabiyama, Aminishiki, Tochinonada, Wakanosato, and Kyokutenho are active Rikishi who are eligible aspirants as well and potential candidates like Tamanoshima (4 Mk Basho needed) and Takamisakari (2) could still make it (in case they experience their 3rd spring whatsoever B-)).

Oyakata like Shikihide, Nakamura, Hanaregoma or Asahiyama don't have a possible successor among their own deshi, so these might be options even for guys who don't fulfill the minimum of 60 Makuuchi Basho.

With that many potential Shishos on the plate and some heya without a clear successor, I don't see the immediate need to shut Tosanoumi out of the race for such a prestigous kabu/heya.

Could it be that he simply wasn't interested in becoming the new stablemaster or Kitakachidoki (who hails from Hokkaido like the current Shisho btw, so that might be a factor, too?) just is the "better" and more experienced Oyakata in whom the current Isenoumi puts all his trust?

And last but not least, the Kyokai should have an interest in reducing the number of heya over the next years to satisfy the committee's demand for a smaller overall number of stables. Creating a new chair game would be a counterproductive move, IMO.

As much as I like your theory, I don't think it's the real reason behind the recent happenings.

[Asashosakari]

We have several other eligible aspirants who COULD open up their own heya if they want to: Dejima, Musashimaru, Takanonami, and Chiyotaikai. Did you leave them out on purpose or do you think these guys wouldn't be interested in playing the game at all?

I'm not sure how those four are supposed to figure into the idea I've outlined...? Kokonoe-beya doesn't have another takeover-eligible oyakata besides Taikai (Toki doesn't own his kabu), the Musashigawa bunch are numerous enough on their own that they can't exactly play this game for the benefit of e.g. Buyuzan, and Takanonami isn't in line for any succession, so can't step aside for anybody either.

I'm not saying that there's a coordinated movement to open up as many new stables as possible "just in case", just that when there's a very specific need to keep an existing stable available for an ineligible oyakata, somebody else whom tradition would predict to become a successor might instead be branching out to facilitate that.

Oyakata like Shikihide, Nakamura, Hanaregoma or Asahiyama don't have a possible successor among their own deshi, so these might be options even for guys who don't fulfill the minimum of 60 Makuuchi Basho.

According to the 2ch rumour mill Kitazakura has been seen frequently at...Shikihide-beya IIRC (not 100% sure right now). There are also persistent rumours that one of the Musashigawa guys will be the next Mihogaseki. Dejima gets named a lot, no idea how credible this is.

With that many potential Shishos on the plate and some heya without a clear successor, I don't see the immediate need to shut Tosanoumi out of the race for such a prestigous kabu/heya.

That assumes that members of multiple stables (even if in the same ichimon) would play along with scenarios such as Kitakachidoki becoming the next Shikihide. That's always possible, of course, but I think we've seen enough surprising kabu decisions that one shouldn't take such grand coordination as given. The neat thing about my theory is that it requires coordination only among members of a single heya, who have already spent years training/working alongside one another.

Could it be that he simply wasn't interested in becoming the new stablemaster or Kitakachidoki (who hails from Hokkaido like the current Shisho btw, so that might be a factor, too?) just is the "better" and more experienced Oyakata in whom the current Isenoumi puts all his trust?

I did call it merely a possible first domino. Tosanoumi is still barred from branching out until December due to the 1-year waiting period, so we don't actually know yet if he's not interested in becoming a shisho. And let's keep in mind the Kaio/Tomozuna arrangement that he'll apprentice for two years before founding Asakayama-beya, so a Tosanoumi-led Tatekawa-beya could also be a little time away.

And last but not least, the Kyokai should have an interest in reducing the number of heya over the next years to satisfy the committee's demand for a smaller overall number of stables. Creating a new chair game would be a counterproductive move, IMO.

Plenty of oyakata have voiced their displeasure with the committee's demand that the number of stables must be reduced - why would you expect them to go along with it voluntarily? There's little evidence for believing that individual oyakata will only do what's best for the Kyokai as a whole. And the Kyokai leadership surely can't enforce it as a coordinated measure, except by outright forbidding any new stable creation. (A change that I doubt any rijicho could even get passed.)

[Raishu]

I'm not sure how those four are supposed to figure into the idea I've outlined...? Kokonoe-beya doesn't have another takeover-eligible oyakata besides Taikai (Toki doesn't own his kabu), the Musashigawa bunch are numerous enough on their own that they can't exactly play this game for the benefit of e.g. Buyuzan, and Takanonami isn't in line for any succession, so can't step aside for anybody either.

I'm not saying that there's a coordinated movement to open up as many new stables as possible "just in case", just that when there's a very specific need to keep an existing stable available for an ineligible oyakata, somebody else whom tradition would predict to become a successor might instead be branching out to facilitate that.

Ok, now I understand why you singled out Kaio und Tosa. Your right with the Musashigawa boys and Takanonami. Kokonoe is a bit tricky, if we consider that the shisho has nine more years to reach the miracle 65. Pure speculation, but a Chiyotaikai/Sanoyama branch-out would at least open up a spot for one of his rough diamonds to take over the heya in 2020. But as I said, that's too far in the future anyway.

According to the 2ch rumour mill Kitazakura has been seen frequently at...Shikihide-beya IIRC (not 100% sure right now). There are also persistent rumours that one of the Musashigawa guys will be the next Mihogaseki. Dejima gets named a lot, no idea how credible this is.

These are interesting facts (thanks for sharing), because I always wondered whether guys like Shikihide want to "recruit" an affiliated Oyakata from another stable to keep their own heya alive. My hope was/is that the aforementioned Oyakata without an obvious successor would merge their heya with another one. Due to the declining number of recruits, I fear we might see even more mini-heya in the near future - a situation that won't be particualarly fruitful for raising deshi in a competitive environment.

The neat thing about my theory is that it requires coordination only among members of a single heya, who have already spent years training/working alongside one another.

Another thing i misunderstood. I was of the opionion you were talking about a coordinated conservation of the current heya rooster. A procedure that requires the participation of many heya within one Ichimon.

Plenty of oyakata have voiced their displeasure with the committee's demand that the number of stables must be reduced - why would you expect them to go along with it voluntarily? There's little evidence for believing that individual oyakata will only do what's best for the Kyokai as a whole. And the Kyokai leadership surely can't enforce it as a coordinated measure, except by outright forbidding any new stable creation. (A change that I doubt any rijicho could even get passed.)

Maybe I'm a bit blue-eyed here, but I still believe that after the departure of the old Oyakata, the younger generation might try to renew the Kyokai's image and structure by accepting the committee's advices for a better future. Right, they are not obliged to go along with their proposals but from a rational point of view, the committee's propsosal on that particular subject just sounds right (mini-heya-affect and so on) - maybe even for some of the Oyakata who won't talk about this loudly in public.

One thing I don't know is whether the following formula works or not: Less heya - less expenses for the Kyokai?

If so, that should be another incentive for the Kyokai to change the situation.

[specialweek 2]

My sources report the possibility of Kaio taking over Tomozuna most unlikely as they don't really get on that well.

Tosanoumi's wife has no interest in being o-kami-san and Kyokutenho is more likely to keep fighting than wanting to take over Oshima beya which will probably merge with another heya in the future.

The kyokai with a new riji-cho needed after hanaregoma drops out next January may have very conflicting battles ahead.

[ryafuji]

Kyokutenho is more likely to keep fighting than wanting to take over Oshima beya which will probably merge with another heya in the future.

Er... I'm pretty sure it's a done deal that Kyokutenho will be taking over Oshima next year.

[Asashosakari]

My guess is that specialweek's sources are tabloid articles. FWIW, I've recently read the "Tosanoumi's wife no wanty be okamisan" thing as well, but anonymous 2ch posters don't rank much higher than tabloids on the trustworthiness scale.

[specialweek 2]

My guess is that specialweek's sources are tabloid articles. FWIW, I've recently read the "Tosanoumi's wife no wanty be okamisan" thing as well, but anonymous 2ch posters don't rank much higher than tabloids on the trustworthiness scale.

Ah not so yee of the 12,000 posts. I have read those articles too. We shall see what unfolds. Assumptions are not always correct.

[Asashosakari]

Ah not so yee of the 12,000 posts. I have read those articles too. We shall see what unfolds. Assumptions are not always correct.

If Kyokutenho becomes Oshima by next May as commonly expected, are you going to tell us which reincarnated member you are? (Whatever above, it is funny...)

(And I'm not talking about the other specialweek account.)

Edited September 20, 2011 by Asashosakari

[specialweek 2]

Ah not so yee of the 12,000 posts. I have read those articles too. We shall see what unfolds. Assumptions are not always correct.

If Kyokutenho becomes Oshima by next May as commonly expected, are you going to tell us which reincarnated member you are? (Whatever above, it is funny...)

(And I'm not talking about the other specialweek account.)

No need to wait. One in the same. New email address refused my access to old account that is all.

[Kintamayama]

Ah not so yee of the 12,000 posts. I have read those articles too. We shall see what unfolds. Assumptions are not always correct.

No need to wait. One in the same. New email address refused my access to old account that is all.

Hints?

No mystery there. He said it was him.