Sign in to follow this  
Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Natsu 2012

Recommended Posts

Newcomers' edition! No less than 6 rikishi on the ballot have started their careers only a year ago, and have yet to taste makekoshial defeat. 9 others have also achieved straight KK's in at least the last 5 basho, and two more are sekitori with at least 4 successful tournaments, giving us a crowded ballot of 17 rikishi. As always you're cordially invited to predict if they'll manage to have another successful performance this basho, loosely defined as KK for mortal rikishi and something a little better for sekiwake and above:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ah...at last!!

1. Hakuho: Yes

2. Baruto: Yes

3. Kotoshogiku: No

4. Kisenosato: No

5. Harumafuji: Yes

6. Kakuryu: No

7. Haruhikari: MK

8. Chiyotairyu: KK

9. Jokoryu: KK

10. Tamadaiki: MK

11. Wakamisho: KK

12. Sasanoyama: KK

13. Irie: KK

14. Watanabe: MK

15. Hakuyozan: MK

16. Asahisho: KK

17. Chiyootori: KK

TB: 19

Thanks for the game, Pierre.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Hakuho: Y

2. Baruto: Y

3. Kotoshogiku: N

4. Kisenosato: Y

5. Harumafuji: N

6. Kakuryu: N

7. Haruhikari: M

8. Chiyotairyu: K

9. Jokoryu: K

10. Tamadaiki: M

11. Wakamisho: K

12. Sasanoyama: K

13. Irie: M

14. Watanabe: K

15. Hakuyozan: M

16. Asahisho: M

17. Chiyootori: K

We will have 18 to choose from in July.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Hakuho: Y

2. Baruto: N

3. Kotoshogiku: Y

4. Kisenosato: N

5. Harumafuji: Y

6. Kakuryu: Y

7. Haruhikari: M

8. Chiyotairyu: M

9. Jokoryu: M

10. Tamadaiki: K

11. Wakamisho: K

12. Sasanoyama: M

13. Irie: K

14. Watanabe: K

15. Hakuyozan: K

16. Asahisho: M

17. Chiyootori: M

And 15

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Hakuho: Y

2. Baruto: Y

3. Kotoshogiku: N

4. Kisenosato: N

5. Harumafuji: N

6. Kakuryu: N

7. Haruhikari: K

8. Chiyotairyu: K

9. Jokoryu: K

10. Tamadaiki: K

11. Wakamisho: K

12. Sasanoyama: K

13. Irie: K

14. Watanabe: K

15. Hakuyozan: K

16. Asahisho: K

17. Chiyootori: K

22

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Hakuho: Yes

2. Baruto: No

3. Kotoshogiku: No

4. Kisenosato: No

5. Harumafuji: Yes

6. Kakuryu: No

7. Haruhikari: MK

8. Chiyotairyu: KK

9. Jokoryu: KK

10. Tamadaiki: MK

11. Wakamisho: KK

12. Sasanoyama: KK

13. Irie: KK

14. Watanabe: KK

15. Hakuyozan: MK

16. Asahisho: MK

17. Chiyootori: KK

Tiebreaker 14

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Hakuho. . . 31 [13-2] y

2. Baruto. . . 16 [12-3] n

3. Kotoshogiku .9 [11-4] y

4. Kisenosato. .8 [11-4] n

5. Harumafuji. .7 [11-4] y

6. Kakuryu . . .7 [11-4] y

7. Haruhikari. .6 MK

8. Chiyotairyu .5 KK

9. Jokoryu . . .5* KK

10.Tamadaiki . .5 KK

11.Wakamisho . .5* KK

12.Sasanoyama. .5* KK

13.Irie. . . . .5* KK

14.Watanabe. . .5* KK

15.Hakuyozan . .5* MK

16.Asahisho. . .4 MK

17.Chiyootori. .4 KK

Tiebreaker 17

Profomisakari

Edited by Profomisakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Hakuho 31 [13-2] Y

2. Baruto 16 [12-3] Y

3. Kotoshogiku 9 [11-4] N

4. Kisenosato 8 [11-4] Y

5. Harumafuji 7 [11-4] N

6. Kakuryu 7 [11-4] N

7. Haruhikari 6 MK

8. Chiyotairyu 5 KK

9. Jokoryu 5* KK

10. Tamadaiki 5 KK

11. Wakamisho 5* KK

12. Sasanoyama 5* KK

13. Irie 5* MK

14. Watanabe 5* KK

15. Hakuyozan 5* MK

16. Asahisho 4 KK

17. Chiyootori 4 KK

TB = 20

Edited by Jejima

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My picks:

1. Hakuho 31 [13-2] Yes

2. Baruto 16 [12-3] Yes

3. Kotoshogiku 9 [11-4] No

4. Kisenosato 8 [11-4] No

5. Harumafuji 7 [11-4] Yes

6. Kakuryu 7 [11-4] Yes

7. Haruhikari 6 MK

8. Chiyotairyu 5 KK

9. Jokoryu 5* KK

10. Tamadaiki 5 MK

11. Wakamisho 5* KK

12. Sasanoyama 5* KK

13. Irie 5* KK

14. Watanabe 5* KK

15. Hakuyozan 5* MK

16. Asahisho 4 KK

17. Chiyootori 4 KK

TIEBREAKER: 19

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Hakuho 31 [13-2] KK

2. Baruto 16 [12-3] KK

3. Kotoshogiku 9 [11-4] KK

4. Kisenosato 8 [11-4] KK

5. Harumafuji 7 [11-4] KK

6. Kakuryu 7 [11-4] KK

7. Haruhikari 6 MK

8. Chiyotairyu 5 KK

9. Jokoryu 5* KK

10. Tamadaiki 5 MK

11. Wakamisho 5* KK

12. Sasanoyama 5* MK

13. Irie 5* MK

14. Watanabe 5* MK

15. Hakuyozan 5* KK

16. Asahisho 4 MK

17. Chiyootori 4 KK

Tiebreaker 18

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Hakuho 31 [13-2] KK

2. Baruto 16 [12-3] KK

3. Kotoshogiku 9 [11-4] MK

4. Kisenosato 8 [11-4] MK

5. Harumafuji 7 [11-4] KK

6. Kakuryu 7 [11-4] MK

7. Haruhikari 6 MK

8. Chiyotairyu 5 KK

9. Jokoryu 5* KK

10. Tamadaiki 5 MK

11. Wakamisho 5* KK

12. Sasanoyama 5* KK

13. Irie 5* MK

14. Watanabe 5* KK

15. Hakuyozan 5* MK

16. Asahisho 4 KK

17. Chiyootori 4 KK

TB: 20

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Y Hakuho

2. N Baruto

3. Y Kotoshogiku

4. N Kisenosato

5. N Harumafuji

6. Y Kakuryu

7. MK Haruhikari

8. KK Chiyotairyu

9. KK Jokoryu

10. MK Tamadaiki

11. KK Wakamisho

12. KK Sasanoyama

13. KK Irie

14. KK Watanabe

15. MK Hakuyozan

16. MK Asahisho

17. KK Chiyootori

TB: 18

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Suppose I should be posting my own entry before the deadline...

+ Hakuho

- Baruto

- Kotoshogiku

- Kisenosato

- Harumafuji

- Kakuryu

- Haruhikari

+ Chiyotairyu

+ Jokoryu

- Tamadaiki

+ Wakamisho

+ Sasanoyama

- Irie

+ Watanabe

+ Hakuyozan

+ Asahisho

+ Chiyootori

TB 19

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At last, here are the selection stats. I'm glad to see we're back up to 13 players with the return of former ozeki Gusoyama.

Player

Haku

Baru

Giku

Kise

Haruma

Kaku

Haruhi

Ch'tai

Joko

Tama

Waka

Sasa

Irie

Wata

Haku

Asahi

Ch'oto

TB

Cons

Pandaazuma

+

+

-

-

+

-

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

19

1.44

Asojima

+

+

-

+

-

-

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

-

-

+

18

1.52

Fay

+

-

+

-

+

+

-

-

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

15

2.42

Holleshoryu

+

+

-

-

-

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

22

1.80

ryafuji

+

+

-

-

+

+

-

-

+

-

+

+

-

+

-

+

-

17

1.71

kuroimori

+

-

-

-

+

-

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

14

1.30

Profomisakari

+

-

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

17

1.59

Jejima

+

+

-

+

-

-

-

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

20

1.62

Achiyama

+

+

-

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

19

1.21

Gusoyama

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

-

-

-

+

-

+

18

2.07

Mmikasazuma

+

+

-

-

+

-

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

20

1.21

Vikanohara

+

-

+

-

-

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

18

1.54

Asashosakari

+

-

-

-

-

-

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

19

1.52

134

13:0

8:5

4:9

3:10

8:5

6:7

1:12

11:2

12:1

4:9

13:0

11:2

7:6

11:2

4:9

7:6

11:2

Overall, the selections are a lot more optimistic than last basho (around 61% +'s compared to 44%). Hakuho was a unanimous pick to finish at least 13-2 again, but I guess that's already a little more in doubt after the first few days. Joining him with all-KK picks is Wakamisho, with Jokoryu (12:1), and Chiyotairyu, Sasanoyama, Watanabe and Chiyootori (all 11:2) also widely expected to keep featuring in the game. The 9 detractor selections are quite concentrated; no less than 4 of them were entered by Fay, while ryafuji and Gusoyama were responsible for 2 apiece, with the last being contributed by Pandaazuma.

4 more rikishi received narrowly positive votes, among them ozekis Baruto and Harumafuji at 8:5. Asahisho and Irie enter the basho with the smallest possible 'up' vote and 7:6 totals.

That leaves just 6 ballot rikishi in negative territory this time, most of them quite lopsidedly. Only shin-ozeki Kakuryu still managed to amass 6 yes votes, quite a vote of confidence considering the 11-4 target and the usual expectation of rookie ozeki jitters. Hakuyozan, the only 2011 debutant on the ballot with a middle school background, finds himself down at 4:9, but that's probably a fair assessment of his chance in mid-sandanme. Also wanting to overcome 4:9 expectations will be Kotoshogiku and former prospect Tamadaiki, while Kisenosato even trails his fellow Japanese ozeki at 3:10. Lastly, only Holleshoryu is expecting Haruhikari to continue his unlikely streak of 6 KK that have brought him from high jonidan to low makushita in the past year.

The tie-breaker picks are mainly concentrated in the 17-20 range, but after last basho's complete miss a few players did decide to go for more extreme choices this time, including a 14, a 15 and a 22. Now watch it finish on 16 or 21...

Unsurprisingly Fay is responsible for the (by far) most unusual picks again with a 2.42 consensus index, followed by returning Gusoyama who's the only one to expect 11-4's from both Japanese ozeki. The most average selections were produced by Achiyama and Mmikasazuma, and their score of 1.21 is veeery close to the theoretical minimum of 1.17 - Achiyama voted + on 6:7 Kakuryu while Mmikasazuma has a - on 7:6 Irie, these are their only picks against the majority. Kuroimori takes third place, voting against two narrow majority picks (- on 8:5 Baruto, - on 7:6 Asahisho).

Of course Achiyama/Mmikasazuma also show the most agreement with 15 picks in common, but several other pairs of players also ended up that high, namely Achiyama/Pandaazuma, Asojima/Jejima, Mmikasazuma/Pandaazuma and Profomisakari/Vikanohara. (Hmm, the two *jimas and the two *azumas...) The least agreement shows up between Asojima/Fay and Fay/Jejima with just 5 picks in common.

Best of luck, everyone!

Edited by Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
...but several other pairs of players also ended up that high, namely Achiyama/Pandaazuma, Asojima/Jejima, Mmikasazuma/Pandaazuma and Profomisakari/Vikanohara. (Hmm, the two *jimas and the two *azumas...)

And Vikanohara and the one who wrote this in an other topic : "two Vikanohara is one time too much". :-D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 8:

The first bunch of results have come in, led by the yokozuna's unexpected three early losses that may well end up as a kyujo and complete departure from our game. Also making their exits are the highest-listed toriteki Haruhikari (0-4 already on Day 7), promising rookie Hakuyozan (withdrew at 0-3) and suddenly hapless Asahisho (0-8). Nobody got Hakuho correct, of course, so perfect scores are already impossible, but the intrepid quartet of Asojima, kuroimori, Profomisakari (who is probably glad he's no longer doing all-KK picks) and Vikanohara did manage to get the other three decisions right and are our first leaders. The first of the nine "crazy" votes has already failed with Holleshoryu's sole KK pick for Haruhikari not panning out.

The backup squad also has the markings of a pretty depressing basho - out of the 12 rikishi, just one is in positive territory right now, five more stand at 2-2 (oddly enough the highest-ranking five), while four are knocking on the makekoshi door at 1-3 and two others (Amatsu and Tomisakae) have already stepped through with early MKs.

The standings:

Day 8:

4/17 Decisions, TB 0-24

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

kuroimori

3

14

2

Profomisakari

3

17

3

Asojima

3

18

3

Vikanohara

3

18

5

Fay

2

15

6

ryafuji

2

17

7

Gusoyama

2

18

8

Achiyama

2

19

8

Pandaazuma

2

19

10

Jejima

2

20

10

Mmikasazuma

2

20

12

Asashosakari

1

19

13

Holleshoryu

0

22

(There goes another ozeki run of mine...)

Edited by Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nothing major on Day 9, just backupper Kyokutaisei dropping to 1-4 while the aforementioned rikishi in positive territory (Fukamiyama) clinched his KK today and will join the next ballot. TB range now 1-23.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 10:

Oops, I forgot to note Kisenosato's KK for tie-breaker purposes, so make yesterday's TB range 2-23. In today's results backup guy Kisenowaka (no relation, not even same heya) dropped to 1-4 and won't be joining the ballot, while Wakamisho brought home the expected point for all players by collecting the early 4-1 kachikoshi. TB now 3-22, standings the same as after Day 8 (plus one point, of course).

Edited by Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 11:

Today's news - KK for Baruto and Kotoshogiku (but no points yet), and a negative outcome for Harumafuji courtesy of his 5th loss. A slight minority of us expected him to fall short of the 11-4 target, among them half of the previous four leaders:

Day 11:

6/17 Decisions, TB 5-22

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Asojima

5

18

1

Vikanohara

5

18

3

kuroimori

4

14

4

Profomisakari

4

17

5

Jejima

4

20

6

Fay

3

15

7

ryafuji

3

17

8

Gusoyama

3

18

9

Achiyama

3

19

9

Asashosakari

3

19

9

Pandaazuma

3

19

12

Mmikasazuma

3

20

13

Holleshoryu

2

22

Looking at the current results slate, I suspect the tie-breaker guesses of 14 and 15 are more likely to be on target than the 17+ ones...

Edited by Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 12:

Two results in today, those being Baruto's 4th loss that makes him miss his 12-3 target, and the kachikoshi by university rikishi Irie. Both were fairly contentious decisions in the balloting, and interestingly most players either got both correct (4: Fay, kuroimori, Profomisakari, Vikanohara) or both wrong (5: Asojima, Gusoyama, Jejima, Mmikasazuma, ryafuji). Consequently the standings have been shook up quite a bit.

The tie-breaker score also took form a bit more today courtesy of additional KKs by Hakuho and Kakuryu, and a makekoshi by backup squadder Hamaminato.

Day 12:

8/17 Decisions, TB 8-21

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Vikanohara

7

18

2

kuroimori

6

14

3

Profomisakari

6

17

4

Fay

5

15

5

Asojima

5

18

6

Achiyama

4

19

6

Asashosakari

4

19

6

Pandaazuma

4

19

9

Jejima

4

20

10

ryafuji

3

17

11

Gusoyama

3

18

12

Mmikasazuma

3

20

13

Holleshoryu

3

22

The backup guys are incredibly undecided this basho; half of the 12 rikishi are greeting their final bout at 3-3.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 14:

Wow, if it hadn't been for backup rikishi Takanoiwa clinching his 5th KK and juryo debut, I would have added nothing but minus marks to my scoresheet today. Losses #5 for both Kotoshogiku and Kakuryu mean they've missed their 11-4 targets, absent Chiyotairyu officially went MK at 5-4-4 today, his stablemate Chiyootori did the same thing on the dohyo, and collegiate Watanabe fell to 3-4.

Three of those were major surprises to us as both Chiyos and Watanabe were voted 11:2 in favour of KKs, so it's not a huge surprise that nobody collected more than 3 out of 5 points today - those fortunate enough to do so were Pandaazuma (correct on Watanabe) and ryafuji (correct on both Chiyos, but missed on Kakuryu). Fay also got two of the upset picks right, but whiffed on both ozeki. Bottom of the pile are Profomisakari and Vikanohara whose overall similarity in selections unfortunately meant an 0/5 for both today. All in all the severely revamped standings now look like this:

Day 13:

13/17 Decisions, TB 9-18

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

kuroimori

8

14

2

Fay

7

15

3

Asojima

7

18

3

Vikanohara

7

18

5

Pandaazuma

7

19

6

Profomisakari

6

17

6

ryafuji

6

17

8

Asashosakari

6

19

8

Jejima

6

20

10

Achiyama

5

19

10

Holleshoryu

5

22

10

Mmikasazuma

5

20

13

Gusoyama

4

18

Not the most proficient picking we've ever demonstrated, that's for sure.

Unfortunately for many of us, the remaining four rikishi were all voted on quite decisively (the closest was a 4:9), and leader Kuroimori went mainstream on all four picks, making it very difficult to catch him. In fact, only three players still have the ability to tie him on points:

Jejima is 2 points behind and differs on 2 picks,

Asojima is 1 point behind and differs on 1 pick,

Fay is 1 point behind and differs on 3 picks.

One of Jejima's different picks is the same as Asojima's. That's bad news for Jejima as he has already missed the tie-breaker score, and would also lose any other playoff (to Fay on the first bracket, to Asojima and Kuroimori on the second). So he's out of the race, as well. And Asojima's fate is only delayed until the fifth bracket at the latest, where Kuroimori would get him if Fay doesn't already on bracket #1. (He does have a very, very small chance to win the yusho right on the tie-breaker score, but that would require all 9 remaining rikishi to finish KK.)

So all in all we're almost certainly down to a head-to-head battle for the yusho.

In lieu of a wall of text, here's a table of the potential outcomes:

[/th][th=1]

Kise

Joko

Tama

Sasa

Kuro

Fay

Current

10-3

7-6

3-3

3-3

8

7

Target

11-4

8-7

4-3

4-3

-+-+

--+-

#01

+

+

+

+

10

8

#02

+

+

+

-

9

9

#03

+

+

-

+

11

7

#04

+

+

-

-

10

8

#05

+

-

+

+

9

9

#06

+

-

+

-

8

10

#07

+

-

-

+

10

8

#08

+

-

-

-

9

9

#09

-

+

+

+

11

9

#10

-

+

+

-

10

10

#11

-

+

-

+

12

8

#12

-

+

-

-

11

9

#13

-

-

+

+

10

10

#14

-

-

+

-

9

11

#15

-

-

-

+

11

9

#16

-

-

-

-

10

10

So, more chances for Kuroimori to win outright, additionally boosted by the fact that Jokoryu is closer to hitting his prediction than Fay's. On the other hand, Fay would win most tied-score situations as Kuroimori can only win those by hitting with his tiebreaker prediction of 14.

Edited by Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 14:

Three of the remaining four decisions have now come in - Kisenosato's 11th win ensured a positive outcome for him, but this did not matter for our yusho race. In the lower divisions Tamadaiki and Sasanoyama also won to finish 4-3, which gives us a split decision between Kuroimori and Fay, each getting one right and one wrong.

In tiebreaker news we had one positive result courtesy of underseized makushita-joi Shosei today, but also a whole lots of 3-4 finishes with Sakigake, Shoho and new prospect Haseyama. That leaves us with:

Day 14:

16/17 Decisions, TB 12-15

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

kuroimori

9

14

2

Asojima

9

18

2

Jejima

9

20

4

Fay

8

15

5

Pandaazuma

8

19

5

Profomisakari

8

17

5

Vikanohara

8

18

8

Asashosakari

7

19

8

Holleshoryu

7

22

8

ryafuji

7

17

11

Achiyama

6

19

11

Mmikasazuma

6

20

13

Gusoyama

5

18

And it all comes down to the final day. Fay is the only player to have picked a MK for Jokoryu, so she can still catch up to the three points leaders. The downside is that such a MK finish would mean she cannot hit her tie-breaker score, and would have to rely on Kuroimori also missing his. In other words, Kuroimori needs either Jokoryu to win, or both of Harumafuji/Kei.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Senshuraku:

For good measure, everybody won for Kuroimori - congrats on the yusho! (I am not worthy...) In the end, he's winning a bracket tie-breaker decision over Jejima (second bracket) and Asojima (fifth bracket). Fay can console herself a bit by hitting the tie-breaker score of 15, which just so pushes her across the KK/MK line. Final standings:

Day 15:

17/17 Decisions, TB 15

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

kuroimori

10

14

2

Asojima

10

18

2

Jejima

10

20

4

Pandaazuma

9

19

4

Profomisakari

9

17

4

Vikanohara

9

18

7

Fay

8

15

8

Asashosakari

8

19

8

Holleshoryu

8

22

8

ryafuji

8

17

11

Achiyama

7

19

11

Mmikasazuma

7

20

13

Gusoyama

6

18

All in all, a pretty depressing performance by us - of 221 picks only 109 turned out correct, so less than half.

The adjusted lineup for next basho:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Scores for banzuke purposes:

kuroimori 11 (10+top)

Asojima 11 (10+top)

Jejima 11 (10+top)

Pandaazuma 9

Profomisakari 9

Vikanohara 9

Fay 9 (8+tb)

Asashosakari 8

Holleshoryu 8

ryafuji 8

Achiyama 7

Mmikasazuma 7

Gusoyama 6

Total: 113 / 13 = 8.69 ---> -1 win

Nagoya 2012 banzuke:

Profomisakari (Oe 8-7)  O   Asojima (Sw 10-5 D)
Jejima (M2e 10-5 D)     S   Pandaazuma (Ke 8-7)
kuroimori (M4e 10-5 Y)  K   Vikanohara (M2w 8-7)
Asashosakari (Se 7-8)   M1  Fay (M3w 8-7)
ryafuji (Kw 7-8)        M2  Holleshoryu (M1w 7-8)
Mmikasazuma (M1e 6-9)   M3  Achiyama (M3e 6-9)
Gusoyama (NR 5-10)      M4  ---

Asojima goes up to ozeki for his third stint after following up a high-quality (unshared) jun-yusho in March with his yusho-doten performance this time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this