Nagoya 2012 sanyaku

[Jaak 7]

Obviously S1e is S1w 8:7S (Goeido).

S1e 7:8 (Toyonoshima) fits to one komusubi slot. So 2 vacancies in sanyaku.

Who are promotees?

M2e 9:6G? (Myogiryu)

M4e 12:3DK? (Tochiozan)

M5e 10:5? (Okinoumi)

M6e 10:5? (Wakakoyu)

M6w 11:4? (Aoiyama)

M7w 12:3YK? (Kyokutenho)

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

Tochiozan will be the other Sekiwake obviously. It's a close call between Kyokutenho and Myogiryu for the second komusubi slot but I would think the yusho will get him the nod.

[Jaak 7]

I expect that neither M2e 9:6G nor M5e 10:5 nor M6w 11:4 is compelling enough for haridashi, right?

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Tochiozan will be the other Sekiwake obviously. It's a close call between Kyokutenho and Myogiryu for the second komusubi slot but I would think the yusho will get him the nod.

Sanyaku promotion for a maegashira yusho winner is pretty much automatic anyway. I think the only real question is if they'll treat it as an extra promotion (i.e. to K2w, with probably Myogiryu as K1w) or if Tenho simply takes the regular slot and locks out the other candidates.

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

Sanyaku promotion for a maegashira yusho winner is pretty much automatic anyway. I think the only real question is if they'll treat it as an extra promotion (i.e. to K2w, with probably Myogiryu as K1w) or if Tenho simply takes the regular slot and locks out the other candidates.

I would think the latter as getting stuck with 9-6 from M2e isn't too unusual. If I may cherrypick my stats, the last five 9-6 at M2e delivered only two sanyaku promotions.

[Jaak 7]

Last maegashira yusho to stay in maegashira was Sadanoyama after 1961.05 at M13w. Since then, the 14 maegashira yushos include 6 which were lower than M7, last of them Takatoriki after 2001.03 at M14e. Lowest maegashira yusho to reach K1 was Tagaryu, 1984.09 at M12w, but Kotonishiki after 1998.11 at the same position reached K2.

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

Last maegashira yusho to stay in maegashira was Sadanoyama after 1961.05 at M13w. Since then, the 14 maegashira yushos include 6 which were lower than M7, last of them Takatoriki after 2001.03 at M14e. Lowest maegashira yusho to reach K1 was Tagaryu, 1984.09 at M12w, but Kotonishiki after 1998.11 at the same position reached K2.

You have to look at the whole banzuke to understand the placements. Tagaryu is K1 because there simply was no better choice for komusubi available, in fact there wasn't a K2 at all. With Kotonishiki there were a komusubi at 9-6 and a M1 at 10-5 both more deserving, so he slid down to K2.

[kuroimori 1,634]

Thanks everyone for the concise "Guess The Banzuke" tutorial :-)

[Mysko 0]

On the other hand, all the M2 who ever got 9/6 AND a sansho (20 occurences) always achieved a sanyaku spot...

[Mysko 0]

I would think the latter as getting stuck with 9-6 from M2e isn't too unusual. If I may cherrypick my stats, the last five 9-6 at M2e delivered only two sanyaku promotions.

Yes, but If you look at the last five 9-6 at M2 (east + west), only one didn't make it to komusubi (and none of them had a sansho)... In fact, If you look at all the M2 with a 9-6 score, an overall 50 out of 60 cases got the nod for san'yaku, so more than 80% !

I am still not saying that Myogiryu will make it to komusubi, but this is indeed a very close call !

In my heart, I feel like Myogiryu does deserve it more than Kyokutenho because of the rikishi he had to face to achieve his score ; however I have regularly observed that the Kyokai officials do not always take my feelings into account when they make the Banzuke !!

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

I would think the latter as getting stuck with 9-6 from M2e isn't too unusual. If I may cherrypick my stats, the last five 9-6 at M2e delivered only two sanyaku promotions.

Yes, but If you look at the last five 9-6 at M2 (east + west), only one didn't make it to komusubi (and none of them had a sansho)... In fact, If you look at all the M2 with a 9-6 score, an overall 50 out of 60 cases got the nod for san'yaku, so more than 80% !

I am still not saying that Myogiryu will make it to komusubi, but this is indeed a very close call !

In my heart, I feel like Myogiryu does deserve it more than Kyokutenho because of the rikishi he had to face to achieve his score ; however I have regularly observed that the Kyokai officials do not always take my feelings into account when they make the Banzuke !!

Actually I WAS warning you that I cherrypicked the stat. I know that 9-6 at M2 has good chances for promotion, but the real question here must be how many extra komusubi slots were made? Komusubi promotions out of necessity (since there must be two komusubi) hardly are informative when scanning the past. Therefore I wanted to show with my stat that even on a quick view it's obvious that they often get hanged at M1 instead of creating a K2. Looking closer it seems like the extra slot always was created between 1992 and 1998 (4 cases) and always denied since 2003 (3 cases). Since the era of more restrictive sanyaku slots is still going strong (as far as I know) I wouldn't expect him to get promoted.

[botev1921 33]

Can anybody give me approximate Aoiyama position for Nagoya? It is very crowded in the top Maegashira ranks, so should we expect him to be at 1 or 2? I will be shocked if he is below 2.

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

Can anybody give me approximate Aoiyama position for Nagoya? It is very crowded in the top Maegashira ranks, so should we expect him to be at 1 or 2? I will be shocked if he is below 2.

On a quick guess I say M1 Myogiryu/Aoiyama, M2 Aminishiki/Okinoumi M3 Wakakoyu. Yes, pretty crowded.

[Pippooshu 1]

Y: Hakuho

O1: Kisenosato-Kotoshogiku

O2: Baruto-Harumafuji

O3: Kakuryu-Kotooshu

S: Goeido-Tochiozan

K: Toyonoshima-Kyokutenho

M1: Myogiryu-Aminishiki

M2: Aoiyama-Okinoumi

M3: Wakakoyu-Shohozan

...

[ryafuji 814]

I would demote Toyonoshima to M1E and promote Kyokutenho and Myogiryu to komusubi. I know he got 7–8 at S1E but tough, it's still a makekoshi and there are too many deserving candidates for sanyaku slots. They did do that to Kotonishiki after January 1992 so its not unprecedented. Admittedly in that case you had komusubi Akebono going 13–2J and M2 Takanohana 14–1Y and it's not quite that extreme here...

Edited May 24, 2012 by ryafuji

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

I would demote Toyonoshima to M1E and promote Kyokutenho and Myogiryu to komusubi.

But would you bet on it in GTB, too?

[Asashosakari 19,320]

I'd even bet on Kyokutenho getting stuck at M1e before I'd bet on Toyonoshima finding himself there.

Edit: Things would be easier if Tenho had lost the playoff.

Edited May 24, 2012 by Asashosakari

[ryafuji 814]

I would demote Toyonoshima to M1E and promote Kyokutenho and Myogiryu to komusubi.

But would you bet on it in GTB, too?

I have yet to dip my toe into the world of competitive banzuke guessing. I'm just saying what I would like to see happen, I'm not saying it's likely.

Edited May 24, 2012 by ryafuji

[shimodahito 315]

A 3rd Komosuibi slot is a real possibility as I didn't see any problems it would create (gaps) going down the rest of the ranks. Certainly the promotions would fit better with a 3rd slot...... Aminishiki, Aoiyama, Kyokutenho, Myogiryu, Okinoumi, Shohozan, Tochinoshin, Toyonoshima, Wakakoyu.... all fitting the K1-K3, M1E-M4E zone.

[Jejima 1,384]

I have Toyonoshima as low down as M2E on my GTB entry....!

Looking over at Sumo Reference, I realise that this is almost certainly a big error.... (Although a sekiwake has been demoted to M2E with a 7-8 record (on one occasion) about 20 years ago....)