Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Nagoya 2012

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Belated welcome! To make things short: Long kachikoshi streaks, 16 rikishi, will extend streak or not. You: Make predictions. Onward!

[kuroimori 1,634]

Nice to have this game again at Nagoya 2012!

Here is my try:

Hakuho - YES

Baruto - YES

Kotoshogiku - NO

Kisenosato - YES

Harumafuji - YES

Kakuryu - NO

Jokoryu -.YES

Tamadaiki - NO

Wakamisho - YES

Sasanoyama - YES

Irie - YES

Takanoiwa - YES

Kei - NO

Shosei - NO

Fukumiyama - NO

Kotooshu - NO

Tiebreaker 18

Thanx for running this game & Good luck to all players

[Kameumi 1]

Time for me to join this!

Here is my first attempt:

Hakuho - NO

Baruto - YES

Kotoshogiku - NO

Kisenosato - NO

Harumafuji - YES

Kakuryu - YES

Jokoryu -.YES

Tamadaiki - NO

Wakamisho - YES

Sasanoyama - YES

Irie - YES

Takanoiwa - NO

Kei - NO

Shosei - YES

Fukumiyama - YES

Kotooshu - YES

Tiebreaker 16

Thank you very much!

[Asojima 2,874]

Bah Humbug!!

1. Hakuho N

2. Baruto N

3. Kotoshogiku N

4. Kisenosato N

5. Harumafuji Y

6. Kakuryu Y

7. Jokoryu N

8. Tamadaiki Y

9. Wakamisho Y

10. Sasanoyama N

11. Irie Y

12. Takanoiwa Y

13. Kei N

14. Shosei N

15. Fukumiyama N

16. Kotooshu N

Only 15 on the tiebreaker

[Fay 1,677]

1. Hakuho yes

2. Baruto no

3. Kotoshogiku yes

4. Kisenosato no

5. Harumafuji yes

6. Kakuryu yes

7. Jokoryu mk

8. Tamadaiki kk

9. Wakamisho kk

10. Sasanoyama mk

11. Irie kk

12. Takanoiwa kk

13. Kei mk

14. Shosei mk

15. Fukamiyama kk

16. Kotooshu no

[Profomisakari 857]

1. Hakuho 32 [13-2] y

2. Baruto 17 [11-4] y

3. Kotoshogiku 10 [10-5] y

4. Kisenosato 9 [11-4] y

5. Harumafuji 8 [10-5] y

6. Kakuryu 8 [10-5] y

7. Jokoryu 6* KK

8. Tamadaiki 6 MK

9. Wakamisho 6* KK

10. Sasanoyama 6* KK

11. Irie 6* KK

12. Takanoiwa 5 KK

13. Kei 5 KK

14. Shosei 5 MK

15. Fukamiyama 5 KK

16. Kotooshu 4 [9-6] n

Tiebreaker 15

Profomisakari

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

Aha...here we go:

Hakuho: No

Baruto: Yes

Kotoshogiku: No

Kisenosato: No

Harumafuji: Yes

Kakuryu: Yes

Jokoryu: Yes

Tamadaiki: No

Wakamisho: Yes

Sasanoyama: Yes

Irie: Yes

Takanoiwa: Yes

Kei: No

Shosei: No

Fukamiyama: No

Kotooshu: No chance!

Tiebreaker: 14

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Whoops, small mistake in the lineup, Tamadaiki and Wakamisho should be the other way around. This may have implications for the tie-breakers so I'm mentioning it now, but I'll leave the first post unchanged for now so people don't enter their picks with two different templates.

[Mmikasazuma 12]

Hakuho: Y

Baruto: Y

Kotoshogiku: N

Kisenosato: N

Harumafuji: Y

Kakuryu: Y

Jokoryu: Y

Tamadaiki: N

Wakamisho: Y

Sasanoyama: Y

Irie: Y

Takanoiwa: Y

Kei: N

Shosei: Y

Fukamiyama: N

Kotooshu: N

[Jejima 1,385]

1. Hakuho Y

2. Baruto Y

3. Kotoshogiku N

4. Kisenosato N

5. Harumafuji N

6. Kakuryu Y

7. Jokoryu Y

8. Tamadaiki N

9. Wakamisho Y

10. Sasanoyama N

11. Irie Y

12. Takanoiwa N

13. Kei Y

14. Shosei N

15. Fukamiyama N

16. Kotooshu N

TB = 15

[Vikanohara 171]

Y Hakuho

Y Baruto

Y Kotoshogiku

N Kisenosato

N Harumafuji

Y Kakuryu

KK Jokoryu

MK Tamadaiki

KK Wakamisho

KK Sasanoyama

KK Irie

KK Takanoiwa

MK Kei

MK Shosei

MK Fukamiyama

N Kotooshu

TB : 16

[Achiyama 1,245]

My picks:

1. Hakuho 32 [13-2] Yes

2. Baruto 17 [11-4] Yes

3. Kotoshogiku 10 [10-5] No

4. Kisenosato 9 [11-4] Yes

5. Harumafuji 8 [10-5] No

6. Kakuryu 8 [10-5] No

7. Jokoryu 6* KK

8. Tamadaiki 6 MK

9. Wakamisho 6* KK

10. Sasanoyama 6* KK

11. Irie 6* KK

12. Takanoiwa 5 KK

13. Kei 5 MK

14. Shosei 5 MK

15. Fukamiyama 5 MK

16. Kotooshu 4 [9-6] No

Tie-breaker: 17

[Asashosakari 19,331]

+ Hakuho

- Baruto

- Kotoshogiku

+ Kisenosato

- Harumafuji

+ Kakuryu

+ Jokoryu

- Tamadaiki

+ Wakamisho

- Sasanoyama

+ Irie

+ Takanoiwa

+ Kei

- Shosei

- Fukamiyama

- Kotooshu

TB 14

[Asashosakari 19,331]

A special (Welcome...) to rookie Kameumi! 11 players entered in total, and here are the selection stats:

Player

Haku

Baru

Giku

Kise

Haru

Kaku

Joko

Waka

Tama

Sasa

Irie

Taka

Kei

Shos

Fuka

Oshu

TB

Cons

kuroimori

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

-

-

18

1.36

Kameumi

-

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

16

1.99

Asojima

-

-

-

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

-

-

-

15

1.84

Fay

+

-

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

-

+

-

1.96

Profomisakari

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

15

1.61

Pandaazuma

-

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

-

-

14

1.18

Mmikasazuma

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

-

-

1.26

Jejima

+

+

-

-

-

+

+

+

-

-

+

-

+

-

-

-

15

1.61

Vikanohara

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

-

-

16

1.29

Achiyama

+

+

-

+

-

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

-

-

17

1.46

Asashosakari

+

-

-

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

-

-

-

14

1.63

[/td]

8:3

8:3

3:8

4:7

7:4

9:2

9:2

11:0

2:9

7:4

11:0

9:2

3:8

2:9

3:8

1:10

Go figure, the one time I don't have an eye on the entries, not just one but two players manage to forget their tie-breaker picks...

All in all, rather lopsided picks this time, three 7:4's are the closest we got on any rikishi. Strong Wakamisho and yet-to-be-tested collegiate rikishi Irie attracted clean slates, while hampered Kotooshu is (almost) unanimously expected not to get 9 wins this basho.

The rest of the ozeki squad sees two 11-4 targets for Nagoya, with Baruto widely expected to reach it, but not Kisenosato. The remaining trio is going for 10 wins - Kakuryu is the favourite here with just two detractors, while Harumafuji and especially Kotoshogiku have engendered less optimism in us. Lastly, following last basho's near-disaster Hakuho is no longer a unanimous choice for reaching 13 wins. (He'll probably go zensho now...)

Three more rikishi were voted into the positive camp, those being recent shin-juryo Jokoryu (despite his less than impressive showing in May) and fresh shin-juryo Takanoiwa, both with 9:2 votes, plus very prospecty-looking high schooler Sasanoyama (although he only KK'ed from 2-3 down last time).

The rest of the field was bludgeoned deep into the minus column, however; few voters expect a continued ballot presence for toriteki Tamadaiki, Kei, Shosei and Fukamiyama.

In total there are 97 up and 79 down votes this basho, much less optimistic than in Natsu. The tie-breaker picks cover the entire range from 14 to 18, and I'll be damned if not at least one of us gets it correct this time. Incidentally, in accordance with the rules backup rikishi Ikeru will not be considered for the tie-breaker even if he joins the basho later and somehow still finishes KK. That makes the backup list an entirely makushita affair.

Following the first big shock of the basho (Asojima not managing to make the first entry ;-)) we have another one: Fay does not have the most outrageous entry! Newcomer Kameumi edges her out in a close 1.99-1.96 decision courtesy of his positive Kotooshu expectation, something even Fay wasn't willing to believe in. Pandaazuma is closest to the consensus at 1.18 (theoretical minimum: 0.97), having voted with the majority on every pick except Hakuho.

The greatest pairwise agreement can be found between Achiyama and kuroimori this time who share 15 picks between them, disagreeing only on Harumafuji. They're followed by Mmikasazuma/Pandaazuma (the Azumas again!) with 14 identical picks, all but Hakuho and Shosei. The least agreement is displayed by Asashosakari/Kameumi (6), with second place shared by Fay/Kameumi (showing there's more than one way to make crazy picks), Achiyama/Fay and Asojima/Profomisakari (all 7).

That's all for now, good luck everyone! :-)

[Kameumi 1]

Many thanks for the warm welcome! (Happy goodbyes...)

Time to show that "unique is sometimes better". Go get them Kotooshu - show them what a cripple can do! :D

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 8:

The first result of the basho is in with Tamadaiki's quick 0-4; one point for everybody bar Asojima and Fay. Also makekoshi already in the backup squad are small-sized Maeshinpu and balloter Sasanoyama's older brother Sasayama. Hakuho and Harumafuji have ensured their continued presence in the game with 8-0 starts, so the TB range currently stands at 2-22.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 9:

Another widely expected result came in with Shosei's 1-4, so still no KK for him in three cracks at the makushita promotion zone. Only Kameumi and Mmikasazuma went against the majority on this one.

In TB news, Kotoshogiku is kachikoshi now while stablemate makushitan backupper Kotootori dropped to MK.

Day 9: 2/16 Decisions, TB 3-20
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	2	14
1	Pandaazuma	2	14
3	Jejima	2	15
3	Profomisakari	2	15
5	Vikanohara	2	16
6	Achiyama	2	17
7	kuroimori	2	18
8	Asojima	1	15
9	Kameumi	1	16
10	Fay	1

10

Mmikasazuma

1

Edited July 16, 2012 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 10:

We're picking up steam in LKS with three more decisions after Day 10. Harumafuji fulfilled his 10-5 target in the shortest possible time, which is good news for a slight majority of 7 players. And kachikoshi after today are Jokoryu (9 correct picks) and Sasanoyama (another 7-player choice). No less than 5 of us (well, you) got all three selections right, providing a big boost up the standings for these players.

For the TB two more slots were decided with Kisenosato's KK and the makekoshi by shin-makushita Onami who probably needs some more weight for the division.

Day 10: 5/16 Decisions, TB 6-19
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Pandaazuma	5	14
2	Profomisakari	5	15
3	kuroimori	5	18
4	Kameumi	4	16
4	Vikanohara	4	16
6	Achiyama	4	17
7	Mmikasazuma	4

8

Asashosakari

3

14

9

Jejima

3

15

10

Asojima

2

15

11

Fay

2

Edited July 17, 2012 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 11:

Pint-sized likely future fan favourite Kei secured his juryo debut, and also secured a point for the three players who didn't expect him to miss the opportunity. In addition, ozeki Baruto is now KK.

The sole rookie rikishi on the backup list, Rikito, went MK on the other hand.

Day 11: 6/16 Decisions, TB 8-18
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Profomisakari	6	15
2	Pandaazuma	5	14
3	kuroimori	5	18
4	Asashosakari	4	14
5	Jejima	4	15
6	Kameumi	4	16
6	Vikanohara	4	16
8	Achiyama	4	17
9	Mmikasazuma	4

10

Asojima

2

15

11

Fay

2

Not a good basho for our freshly returned ozeki Asojima so far, but still lots of points available.

Edited July 19, 2012 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 12:

Again just one decision, today's it's Kakuryu's 6th loss ensuring he can no longer reach his 10-5 target. Only Achiyama and kuroimori expected this outcome, allowing the latter to join the yusho lead.

Two more rikishi fell to makekoshi in the backup ranks, and it's now a serious possibility we may not actually have any newcomers to the ballot for Aki. (Except sekitori special guests with just 4 KK.)

Day 12: 7/16 Decisions, TB 8-16
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Profomisakari	6	15
2	kuroimori	6	18
3	Pandaazuma	5	14
4	Achiyama	5	17
5	Asashosakari	4	14
6	Jejima	4	15
7	Kameumi	4	16
7	Vikanohara	4	16
9	Mmikasazuma	4

10

Asojima

2

15

11

Fay

2

Once again it looks as though all our tie-breaker guesses were too optimistic.

Edited July 19, 2012 by Asashosakari

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

I have got the top lads wrong in a big way!

Pierre...who is that in your profile pic? Great pic. Is there a link to a clip of the bout?

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Pierre...who is that in your profile pic? Great pic. Is there a link to a clip of the bout?

[Kameumi 1]

One more win for Kotoosho and I would perfectly happy with placing last.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 13:

First off, I forgot to note Kotooshu's KK yesterday, so the TB range was actually 9-16. On to today's action which actually saw two decisions for a change, although both were realized in one bout - Hakuho's victory over Baruto both got the yokozuna to the 13-win finish line as well as ended Bart's quest for 11. Only Fay and Asashosakari got both correct, while Kameumi and Pandaazuma batted .000 today. Among the others only Asojima got his point via Baruto, the rest scored with Hak.

Fortunately we will have a 5-KK newcomer for Aki after all, as talented Masunosho converted his 3-3 successfully today against collegiate Sakaguchi. Heavy Wakaaoba on the other hand lost against even heavier Maeta to finish 3-4. That ends it for the backup squad in Nagoya, so for the tie-breaker we're left the remaining five ballot rikishi with undecided directions.

In any case, the standings with two days (but many decisions) to go:

Day 13: 9/16 Decisions, TB 10-15
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Profomisakari	7	15
2	kuroimori	7	18
3	Asashosakari	6	14
4	Achiyama	6	17
5	Pandaazuma	5	14
6	Jejima	5	15
7	Mmikasazuma	5

7

Vikanohara

5

16

9

Fay

4

9

Kameumi

4

16

11

Asojima

3

15

The remaining schedule:

For points only: Kisenosato, Kotoshogiku and Kotooshu need one more win each to hit their targets.

For tiebreak only: Kakuryu needs one more win for kachikoshi.

For points and tiebreak: Wakamisho, Irie and Fukamiyama are 3-3 and are all in action on Day 14. Takanoiwa stands at 6-7.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

I forgot that Wakamisho and Irie ultimately don't matter to the final results as they were picked for KK by everybody. Okay, they could still matter through the tie-breaker in some very specialized cases, but it's unlikely.

Looking through the other potential results, it turns out only four players still have actual yusho chances. It's the two leaders Profomisakari and kuroimori, and somewhat surprisingly Jejima and Kameumi. A lot will have to go right for the latter two though.

Assuming 50% likelihood of each remaining bout being won, we get a 75% likelihood that the four ozeki will reach their targets (probably underestimates Kakuryu, might overestimate Kotooshu), 50% for the three lower-division guys, and 25% for Takanoiwa to finish KK: Yusho probabilities 51% kuroimori, 38% Profomisakari, 9% Jejima, 2% Kameumi.

For the two underdogs:

- Kameumi wins if his remaining relevant predictions all come true (Giku-, Kise-, Osh+, Takanoiwa-, Fukamiyama+)

- Jejima wins with Kise-, Takanoiwa-, Fukamiyama- (no matter what Giku and Osh do)