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Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Aki 2012

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Welcome to another edition of the game that features serial overachievers! We're down to 14 contenders in Aki basho, and as always you're cordially invited to predict their success level for the upcoming tournament. This is our lineup:

1. Hakuho 33 [13-2]

2. Baruto 18 [11-4]

3. Kotoshogiku 11 [10-5]

4. Kisenosato 10 [11-4]

5. Harumafuji 9 [11-4]

6. Kakuryu 9 [10-5]

7. Jokoryu 7*

8. Sasanoyama 7*

9. Irie 7*

10. Takanoiwa 6

11. Keitenkai 6

12. Kotooshu 5 [9-6]

13. Masunosho 5

14. Kotoyutaka 4

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

- For yokozuna, ozeki and sekiwake: One point each for correctly predicting if he will achieve at least the listed record (based on his 5-basho average) or finish worse.

- For lower-ranked rikishi: One point each for correctly predicting if he will finish KK or MK.

First tie-breaker: From among those 14 guys up there and the further 7 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 21. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Yokozuna, ozeki and sekiwake count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 13 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in reverse order, i.e. starting at Kotoyutaka.

Penultimate tie-breaker, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number.

Final tie-breaker, should two or more players with identical ballots have entered identical tie-breaker guesses as well or be at the same distance from opposite sides: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK / Yes; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

Edited by Asashosakari

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1. Y

2. N

3. Y

4. Y

5. Y

6. Y

7. Y

8. N

9. Y

10. N

11. Y

12. N

13. Y

14. Y

and, we will be playing with 15 for Kyushu.

Edited by Asojima

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1. Y

2. Y

3. Y

4. N

5. Y

6. Y

7. Y

8. N

9. N

10.Y

11.Y

12.Y

13.N

14.Y

TB = 13

Profomisakari

Edited by Profomisakari

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1. Hakuho 33 [13-2] Y

2. Baruto 18 [11-4] Y

3. Kotoshogiku 11 [10-5] N

4. Kisenosato 10 [11-4] N

5. Harumafuji 9 [11-4] Y

6. Kakuryu 9 [10-5] N

7. Jokoryu 7* Y

8. Sasanoyama 7* Y

9. Irie 7* Y

10. Takanoiwa 6 Y

11. Keitenkai 6 Y

12. Kotooshu 5 [9-6] N

13. Masunosho 5 N

14. Kotoyutaka 4 N

TB 12

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Huzzah!!

1. Y

2. N

3. Y

4. N

5. Y

6. Y

7. Y

8. N

9. Y

10. Y

11. Y

12. Y

13. N

14. N

TB: 14

Pandaazuma

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1. Y

2. N

3. N

4. Y

5. N

6. Y

7. Y

8. Y

9. Y

10. Y

11. Y

12. N

13. N

14. Y

TB: 13

Thank you very much!

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1. Hakuho Y

2. Baruto N

3. Kotoshogiku Y

4. Kisenosato N

5. Harumafuji Y

6. Kakuryu Y

7. Jokoryu Y

8. Sasanoyama N

9. Irie N

10. Takanoiwa Y

11. Keitenkai N

12. Kotooshu N

13. Masunosho N

14. Kotoyutaka Y

TB = 13

(Why is Kotoyutaka included in the ballot, with only 4 KKs in his streak? Did I miss something? :-S )

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My picks are:

1. Hakuho 33 [13-2] Yes

2. Baruto 18 [11-4] No

3. Kotoshogiku 11 [10-5] Yes

4. Kisenosato 10 [11-4] No

5. Harumafuji 9 [11-4] Yes

6. Kakuryu 9 [10-5] No

7. Jokoryu 7* KK

8. Sasanoyama 7* KK

9. Irie 7* KK

10. Takanoiwa 6 KK

11. Keitenkai 6 MK

12. Kotooshu 5 [9-6] Yes

13. Masunosho 5 MK

14. Kotoyutaka 4 MK

Tiebreaker: 15

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1. Hakuho 33 [13-2] Y

2. Baruto 18 [11-4] Y

3. Kotoshogiku 11 [10-5] N

4. Kisenosato 10 [11-4] Y

5. Harumafuji 9 [11-4] Y

6. Kakuryu 9 [10-5] Y

7. Jokoryu 7* KK

8. Sasanoyama 7* KK

9. Irie 7* KK

10. Takanoiwa 6 MK

11. Keitenkai 6 MK

12. Kotooshu 5 [9-6] Y

13. Masunosho 5 MK

14. Kotoyutaka 4 MK

TB 12

TB 12

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1. Hakuho Y

2. Baruto N

3. Kotoshogiku Y

4. Kisenosato N

5. Harumafuji Y

6. Kakuryu Y

7. Jokoryu Y

8. Sasanoyama Y

9. Irie N

10. Takanoiwa Y

11. Keitenkai N

12. Kotooshu Y

13. Masunosho N

14. Kotoyutaka N

Tiebreaker 13

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yes 1. Hakuho

NO! 2. Baruto

yes 3. Kotoshogiku

NO! 4. Kisenosato

yes 5. Harumafuji

NO! 6. Kakuryu

K-K 7. Jokoryu

K-K 8. Sasanoyama

K-K 9. Irie

K-K 10. Takanoiwa

m-k 11. Keitenkai

NO! 12. Kotooshu

m-k 13. Masunosho

m-k 14. Kotoyutaka

TB : 14 again

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1. Hakuho +

2. Baruto -

3. Kotoshogiku +

4. Kisenosato -

5. Harumafuji +

6. Kakuryu -

7. Jokoryu +

8. Sasanoyama -

9. Irie -

10. Takanoiwa -

11. Keitenkai -

12. Kotooshu -

13. Masunosho +

14. Kotoyutaka -

TB 12

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1. Hakuho +

2. Baruto -

3. Kotoshogiku +

4. Kisenosato -

5. Harumafuji -

6. Kakuryu +

7. Jokoryu -

8. Sasanoyama +

9. Irie +

10. Takanoiwa +

11. Keitenkai +

12. Kotooshu +

13. Masunosho +

14. Kotoyutaka -

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(Why is Kotoyutaka included in the ballot, with only 4 KKs in his streak? Did I miss something? :-S )

You were part of the discussion last November. ;-)

My memory is getting bad! I was surprised to read my contributions to the thread that Kintamayama recently highlighted, but I reasoned that was several years ago, so excusable....

But this was less than a year ago!

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Here are the selection stats - nice to see 13 players active this basho! (Only 12 tie-breaker guesses though...)

Player

Haku

Baru

Giku

Kise

Haru

Kaku

Joko

Sasa

Irie

Taka

Kei

Oshu

Masu

Yutaka

TB

Cons

Asojima

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

-

+

+

15

1.83

Profomisakari

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

-

+

13

1.65

Holleshoryu

+

+

-

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

12

1.65

Pandaazuma

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

-

14

1.19

Mmikasazuma

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

15

1.26

Kameumi

+

-

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

13

1.81

Jejima

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

+

-

-

-

+

13

1.53

Achiyama

+

-

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

-

15

1.29

kuroimori

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

-

-

12

1.81

ryafuji

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

-

-

13

1.29

Vikanohara

+

-

+

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

-

14

1.32

Asashosakari

+

-

+

-

+

-

+

-

-

-

-

-

+

-

12

1.85

Fay

+

-

+

-

-

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

[/td2]

1.81

[/td][td2]

13:0

3:10

10:3

4:9

11:2

9:4

12:1

8:5

9:4

10:3

7:6

7:6

3:10

4:9

Back to unanimous thumbs up on Hakuho. Among the three ozeki with 11-4 targets only tsunatori'ing Harumafuji enjoys significant support, while Baruto and Kisenosato have to be considered underdogs, at least if we know what we're talking (err, voting) about. Kotoshogiku and Kakuryu are widely expected to reach double-digits, on the other hand, and even Kotooshu attracted a narrow majority of plus votes for his 9-6 goal.

The non-ozeki part of the ballot is led by Jokoryu both in position and support, with only Fay not expecting him to KK. Takanoiwa in his sophomore juryo had a few more detractors but still received 10 up votes. Also in juryo, shin-sekitori Kei got a mixed bag of votes (alas, his race could be over already), while returning Kotoyutaka is mostly expected to drop. Down in the makushita ranks both Sasanoyama and Irie are expected to continue their streaks, but not our youngest ballot entrant Masunosho.

Overall we're quite optimistic again with 110:72. As such it's pretty surprising to see the tie-breaker range as low as 12 to 15, but I guess we're all a bit gunshy after the last couple of basho.

The most outrageous selections come courtesy of...Asashosakari? 1.85 isn't a terribly high score for 14 picks though (the maximum this basho is 2.61), and in fact only 7 of the votes were against the majority, among them the two 7:6 brackets and the 8:5. And no less than 5 players follow right behind with Asojima at 1.83 and the trio of Kameumi/kuroimori/Fay at 1.81.

Just like last basho, Pandaazuma leads the field from the other end with a score of 1.19 (possible minimum 1.09), having voted with the majority on everyone bar Sasanoyama. Mmikasazuma (1.26), Achiyama/ryafuji (1.29) and Vikanohara (1.32) aren't far off though, either. That pretty much only leaves Profomisakari and Holleshoryu as non-outliers at 1.65.

The most agreement with 13 picks is displayed by Achiyama and Vikanohara who voted differently only on Kotooshu. 12-pick agreement was produced by Achiyama/ryafuji and Mmikasazuma/Pandaazuma (the latter pair scoring highly for the third basho in a row, I think). Asashosakari/Kameumi have by far the least agreement with just 4 identical selections. Nine different pairs share 6 picks, for an overall slate that shows remarkably low agreement. We might be in for a basho with very diverse results...

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Day 8:

So far, so bad...four decisions have come in, but all on the backs of injury withdrawals. That's points for all negative votes on Baruto, Kotoshogiku, Kotooshu and Keitenkai.

As a consequence we can probably wave bye-bye to our tie-breaker guesses already. So for, TB points have been scored by Hakuho, Harumafuji and Kakuryu courtesy of their 8-0 starts, as well as makushitan Seiro who's 4-0 and gunning for a juryo debut. Probably won't be many more, though...on the main ballot only four more rikishi are KK-trending right now (plus one 4-4), among the backuppers it's, err, nobody (4x 1-3, 2x 2-2).

Here are the early standings:

Day 8:

4/14 Decisions, TB 4-20

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Asashosakari

3

12

2

Jejima

3

13

2

Kameumi

3

13

4

Vikanohara

3

14

5

Holleshoryu

2

12

5

kuroimori

2

12

7

ryafuji

2

13

8

Achiyama

2

15

8

Asojima

2

15

10

Pandaazuma

1

14

11

Mmikasazuma

1

15

12

Fay

1

13

Profomisakari

0

13

Profomisakari's tsunatori already looks comprehensively derailed, unfortunately.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Nothing happened on Day 9 except Baruto officially falling to MK, so here's Day 10 now...

...with Kotosogiku and Kotooshu doing the same, as our grasp on successful tie-breaker picking continues to slip. Fellow ozeki Kakuryu on the other hand is KK now. In actual scoring-related news fast-rising Sasanoyama improved to 4-1 today, an outcome predicted by the majority of players.

Day 10:

5/14 Decisions, TB 6-17

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Kameumi

4

13

2

Vikanohara

4

14

3

Asashosakari

3

12

3

Holleshoryu

3

12

3

kuroimori

3

12

6

Jejima

3

13

6

ryafuji

3

13

8

Achiyama

3

15

9

Asojima

2

15

9

Mmikasazuma

2

15

11

Fay

2

12

Pandaazuma

1

14

13

Profomisakari

0

13

Among the 7 backuppers all rikishi not named Seiro are 2-3 now, so that's probably not going to do a whole lot for our tie-breaker hopes either.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 11:

Another ozeki decision has arrived with Harumafuji's 11th win - good news for everyone bar Fay and Kameumi. And newly KK is makuuchi-bound Jokoryu, another pick only Fay has missed out on. In the backup ranks 16-year-old Onojo is makekoshi in his sandanme debut following four 4-3's.

Thanks to Kameumi's Harumafuji misfortune we have a sole leader now:

Day 11:

7/14 Decisions, TB 7-16

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Vikanohara

6

14

2

Asashosakari

5

12

2

Holleshoryu

5

12

2

kuroimori

5

12

5

Jejima

5

13

5

Kameumi

5

13

5

ryafuji

5

13

8

Achiyama

5

15

9

Asojima

4

15

9

Mmikasazuma

4

15

11

Pandaazuma

3

14

12

Profomisakari

2

13

13

Fay

2

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yes I should stop making my pics because of sympathy

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Day 12:

Kakuryu satisfies the majority of us by collecting 10 wins quickly this basho (of course, he might well still finish only 10-5). Vikanohara wasn't among the optimists, however, so we're suddenly back to a five-way lead. Our last remaining tie-breaker hopes took a big hit today as three backup squadders fell to 2-4 with Nishiuchi, Aokishin and Isenohana, and everybody with a guess of 14 or 15 is already out of the running. The last 6 rikishi standing are 3-3 (x4), 6-6 and 7-5.

Day 12:

8/14 Decisions, TB 7-13

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

kuroimori

6

12

2

Jejima

6

13

2

Kameumi

6

13

2

ryafuji

6

13

5

Vikanohara

6

14

6

Asashosakari

5

12

6

Holleshoryu

5

12

8

Achiyama

5

15

8

Asojima

5

15

8

Mmikasazuma

5

15

11

Pandaazuma

4

14

12

Profomisakari

3

13

13

Fay

3

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Day 13:

Big-time prospect Masunosho achieved his 6th straight KK at the expense of former sekitori Hishofuji, and veteran juryo returnee Kotoyutaka also moved into KK territory. Both come as surprises to most of us, with the notable exception of Asojima who picked up both points today. 5 other players walked away with one point.

Day 13:

10/14 Decisions, TB 9-13

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Jejima

7

13

1

Kameumi

7

13

3

Asojima

7

15

4

Asashosakari

6

12

4

kuroimori

6

12

6

ryafuji

6

13

7

Vikanohara

6

14

8

Holleshoryu

5

12

9

Achiyama

5

15

9

Mmikasazuma

5

15

11

Profomisakari

4

13

12

Fay

4

12

Pandaazuma

4

14

The three current leaders are the only players who can still win the yusho. Among the pursuers Asashosakari is the only player who can tie for the leading score in any scenario, but would lose on tie-breakers.

Edited by Asashosakari

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