Why worry?

[Asameshimae 220]

Sorry, if this has been covered well elsewhere.

I realized when I was watching Haruma hold his own against Hakuho and then beat him that many, including myself were underestimating him. So he's small, so he uses harite a bit much, so he sometimes pulls 8-7 records - what's the big deal? You have to be pretty darn good to pull of two zensho yusho in a row. If anyone was ready, he is. Hakuho is the underdog in my opinion the next time they meet. And I don't think the next basho should be too much of a litmus test - most yokozuna don't win their first tournament. Nah, I think Haruma is going to make a great yokozuna. Looking forward to it.

[Andreas21 184]

I'm not worried at all. His main problem was not the size but a series of injuries.

Perhaps he steps in the footpath of Musashimaru. Both had a long and good Ozeki career and failed to reach promotion earlier as they had been confronted with extraordinary dai-Yokozuna. And both finally reached it at the age of 28!

You know the end of the story for Musa, he broke the dominance of the slowly weakened opponents, collected some more Yusho, ended up being a dai-Yokozuna himself.

[Masumasumasu 902]

Sorry, if this has been covered well elsewhere.

I realized when I was watching Haruma hold his own against Hakuho and then beat him that many, including myself were underestimating him. So he's small, so he uses harite a bit much, so he sometimes pulls 8-7 records - what's the big deal? You have to be pretty darn good to pull of two zensho yusho in a row. If anyone was ready, he is. Hakuho is the underdog in my opinion the next time they meet. And I don't think the next basho should be too much of a litmus test - most yokozuna don't win their first tournament. Nah, I think Haruma is going to make a great yokozuna. Looking forward to it.

The second zensho yusho was almost certainly the result of the following two factors:

1) Three missing ozeki.

2) Most of HF's opponents in the Aki basho just fell over like they were trying to lose on purpose.

He'll be a weak Yokozuna in my opinion.

[wanderer 159]

Sorry, if this has been covered well elsewhere.

I realized when I was watching Haruma hold his own against Hakuho and then beat him that many, including myself were underestimating him. So he's small, so he uses harite a bit much, so he sometimes pulls 8-7 records - what's the big deal? You have to be pretty darn good to pull of two zensho yusho in a row. If anyone was ready, he is. Hakuho is the underdog in my opinion the next time they meet. And I don't think the next basho should be too much of a litmus test - most yokozuna don't win their first tournament. Nah, I think Haruma is going to make a great yokozuna. Looking forward to it.

He hasn't exactly been zenshoing up until 2 basho ago. He had clear disadvantage in strength and build agains the Ozeki and Yokozuna. But in last two basho, he just bulked up and became much stronger, which is remarkable. So now he is here and will have to defend his position at different level. That worries me.

The most important skill for Yokozuna seem to be an ability to avoid injuries. Musashimaru's wrist injury. Takanohana's career also ended due to injuries. Kaio, and Chiyotokai stopped at Ozeki, due to injuries. Tochiazuma? He was so close, but again injuries. Gigantic europeans Kotooshu, and Baruto. They have the strength and build, but again, both are held back by their injuries.

In contrast, Asashoryu managed to mostly avoid injuries, racking up 25 yusho. Hakuho also is relatively injury free, and already at 22 yusho. To be able to avoid debilitating injuries in Sumo world in itself is a great skill, and requires great physical form.

But when I look at Harumafuji, he is taking so much beating to himself, sometimes it is difficult to watch. Sooner or later, he is going to get injured because he hasn't got the bulk to counter against guys like Baruto, let alone Hakuho. That worries me.

Otherwise, he was magnificent in the last two basho.

Edited September 25, 2012 by wanderer

[Hakuyobaku 33]

What is the mean number of Yokozuna yusho ( breakoff point or when 6 basho/year was established or any other later date). HF already has 4. Winning few more yusho, so his total is in the range of 7-10, makes him a better than average yokozuna, and I really don't have doubts that in coming let's say 3-4 years he can win 1 basho a year - probably more. End of story

Edited September 25, 2012 by Hakuyobaku

[krindel 671]

Like I mentioned in another thread, since the yusho system got in place (1909) he is tied in 30th place of carreer yusho together with Asahifuji, Takanosato, Wakanohana II and Kagamisato (with everyone above and together with him being a yokozuna except Kaio).

http://www.sumoreference.com/Query.aspx?show_form=0&rowcount=2&group_by=rikishi&form1_y=on&form1_m=on

His 4 yusho make him pretty "average" for a yokozuna already. If he manages one more or so, he'll be quite allright, number wise.

[Maguroyama 27]

Sorry, if this has been covered well elsewhere.

I realized when I was watching Haruma hold his own against Hakuho and then beat him that many, including myself were underestimating him. So he's small, so he uses harite a bit much, so he sometimes pulls 8-7 records - what's the big deal? You have to be pretty darn good to pull of two zensho yusho in a row. If anyone was ready, he is. Hakuho is the underdog in my opinion the next time they meet. And I don't think the next basho should be too much of a litmus test - most yokozuna don't win their first tournament. Nah, I think Haruma is going to make a great yokozuna. Looking forward to it.

The second zensho yusho was almost certainly the result of the following two factors:

1) Three missing ozeki.

Seriously? Harumafuji's zensho yusho was because one weak and two average ozeki were missing? (The injured Baruto of late is at best average.) That shows how much you know about sumo. There is absolutely nothing that indicates that any of those three would have beaten Haruma when even Hakuho couldn't do it. You can predict the future any way you want, but get the past right.

[Treblemaker 254]

And I also agree. The missing people: Geeku and Osh. Neither a real threat to HF. Baruto? Let's put it this way: Seeing how (not only) physically and intelligently HF handled Hak, Baruto would have had to elevate himself to a whole new level to beat HF, all things being equal.

The only problem I have with HF is that he can be a streaky guy. When on, he's unbeatable. When off, he's toast. That being said, I fully expect his first basho as a Yok to be not unlike Facebook's IPO offering. Or Zukerberg's shares, but not like Blackberry shares.

And most of HF's opponents in the basho sisn't just "fall over". With the sole exception of the Kakuryu bout, where I felt that it seemed a little bit one-sided, HF won straight up.

What HF has (and most rikishi lack) is intelligence and cunning. Using leverage and a whole lot of Mongolian sumo techniques, he's way ahead of the average guy. The big difference between him and the other Mongolians, and the similarity to Asa, is that HF can draw on all kinds of moves that his countrymen won't (or simply can't) execute. (Except for Tokitenku, and then all he has left is The Kick.)

Probably as dangerous as a healthy Aminishiki.

All argument about HF's ability has to come to a screaming stoip when you consider that he managed to win a bout with a HUGE, immensely talented and very heavy Hakuho bearing down on him. Of all of his bouts, I think this one defines HF. I suspect that any other rikishi would have lost that dance.

I look forward to Harumazuna.

[Masumasumasu 902]

Sorry, if this has been covered well elsewhere.

I realized when I was watching Haruma hold his own against Hakuho and then beat him that many, including myself were underestimating him. So he's small, so he uses harite a bit much, so he sometimes pulls 8-7 records - what's the big deal? You have to be pretty darn good to pull of two zensho yusho in a row. If anyone was ready, he is. Hakuho is the underdog in my opinion the next time they meet. And I don't think the next basho should be too much of a litmus test - most yokozuna don't win their first tournament. Nah, I think Haruma is going to make a great yokozuna. Looking forward to it.

The second zensho yusho was almost certainly the result of the following two factors:

1) Three missing ozeki.

Seriously? Harumafuji's zensho yusho was because one weak and two average ozeki were missing? (The injured Baruto of late is at best average.) That shows how much you know about sumo. There is absolutely nothing that indicates that any of those three would have beaten Haruma when even Hakuho couldn't do it. You can predict the future any way you want, but get the past right.

When healthy, those three ozeki would give HF a run for his money.

So what if I'm not a sumo nerd? So what if I don't know everything about the 'sport'?

We'll see what happens in the basho to come.

[Tsubame 361]

There is absolutely nothing that indicates that any of those three would have beaten Haruma when even Hakuho couldn't do it.

Sorry but that sentence make no sence at all. How often loses the superior fighter surprisingly? It just happend... A maegeshira named Kisenosato ended the winning streak of Hakuho and no ozeki! Back in May (Natsu 2012) Harumafuji lost to Gagamaru, Toyohibiki, Myogiryu, Kotooshu, Kotoshogiku, Kakuryu and Kisenosato. But he won against Hakuho in that basho! So they were a plenty of fighters who won against Harumafuji except the yokozuna.

Noone can tell if one of the missing ozeki could have beaten Harumafuji. But at least you can tell that with three healthy ozeki it would be a little bit harder. But nevertheless it does not change anything and our fresh yokozuna has to proof his rank in the next bashos and we will see how good he will be.

Edited September 26, 2012 by Tsubame

[Afrozuna 8]

I know many will disagree with me but I really think the standard for Yokozuna has been raised. I dont think 10 yusho qualifies as Dai Yokozuna anymore. There are 6 bashos a year in Sumo so it only take 1 year 8 months to become Dai Yakozuna besides the fact that you already have two or more yushos before promotion already. I just feel like a reversal of the perfomance of Yokozuna will be regarded as a drop in the standard already set and hence 2 steps back for Sumo in general.While I know everyone eventually gets restless and impatient with a sole yokozuna to a point where they star making ridiculous suggestions like "if he gets a yusho and a yusho equivalent for sure he will be promoted". I prefer to have a sole Yokozuna performing at high standard rather than yokozuna performing at Ozeki level winning one basho a year. I dont think we can turn back the time anymore. A Yokozuna winning less than 10 yusho is simply an excellent Ozeki to me. Once again I must stress that my reasoning is based on the fact that there are 6 bashos per year, thats an awful lot of Grand Slams in a year and if the Yokozuna can only scoop one a year than he is just not worth his salt really.

[yorikiried by fate 2,028]

How I read it, your reasoning is rather based on the strict rule of "only two consecutive yusho make a Yokozuna" than on anything else. Post Futahaguro all Yokozuna except Asahifuji and Wakanohana III. have reached at least ten yusho, while in the whole wide land between 1958 (6bpy) and 1988 there has been a majority of lesser Yokozuna.

Edited September 26, 2012 by yorikiried by fate

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Well, I remain convinced that the rank makes the man as much as the man makes the rank - IMHO, keeping promising ozeki at the ozeki rank too long makes them (some, not all) complacent and liable to not reach their full potential, while a quicker move to the yokozuna rank could well challenge them to achieve the very best they can. I agree with what Doitsuyama said in another thread yesterday - purely performance-wise there wasn't really anything wrong with the Futahaguro promotion (though one career yusho before promotion would have been nice), he just turned out to be not up to snuff to the rank in hinkaku. I have a feeling that part of the rationale behind requring two straight yusho is to delay promoting ozeki until they've "grown up" completely - but as the various dai-yokozuna have shown over the decades, some rikishi are easily able to get those two yusho even while they're very young, and on some occasions you'll still end up with, well, somebody like Asashoryu.

If they want a tougher hinkaku component, they should go ahead and say so. Hiding it in the performance standard is pointless; it doesn't work in ensuring sufficient hinkaku, and in the end it doesn't even work as a performance standard, because it's prone to fluke performances. I'd rather have seen Wakanohana3 promoted around 1994/95 while he still had promise than when he actually got promoted. He might still have turned out to be "only" a 5-yusho yokozuna, but it would have been a much more impressive career at the top rank. I'd rather have a bunch of 5-yusho yokozunas than one boring 20+ yusho one-yokozuna era after another. (And if "must have hinkaku" ends up with, say, Kisenosato stuck at the ozeki rank despite two consecutive yusho, so be it.)

The biggest problem is that now, 25 years after Futahaguro, we're getting new ozeki who already are complacent when they attain the rank. That just shouldn't happen at all except for very late promotees like Kotomitsuki. And IMHO the too-tough yokozuna promotion standards play a major role in that, not "Japanese rikishi are all soft nowadays", "foreign rikishi are all mercenaries who are just in it for the paycheck", or whatever other generalizations people like to come with up to brush aside the fact that we're still getting as many ozeki as ever, but much fewer yokozuna-quality rikishi (no matter if they're actually promoted or not).

Edited September 26, 2012 by Asashosakari

[Afrozuna 8]

You are trying to put the cart before the horse. You want people to be promoted on potential without putting the yushos required. The consecutive yusho requirement has served well in filtering beneficiaries of injury riddled yushos and inconsistent streakers. You associate excitement in Sumo with the numder of Yokozuna in the banzuke which is a mistake. Its the quality of sumo that makes it exciting and if the quality is good the Yokozuna promotions will follow. The past 4 years have seen poor quality sumo and what you are saying is if those Ozekis had been promoted they would have suddenly by some miracle produced great quality sumo worthy of Yokozuna. You want rikishi to be promoted based on hope rather than actual performance. Needless to say I find your idea naive not to mention the scandals that will result with such a haphazard promotion criteria. 5-basho Yokozuna will not have a long career anyway so we will be denied of seeing them perform at the highest levels of the sport not to mention the money they will lose out on. It wasn't Futahaguro's lack of yusho or hinkaku that brought about the two-yusho reqirement. It was Konishiki scandal, after that the requirement was clear cut and that is why it wont be getting relaxed anytime soon even for Japanese rikishi.

[Asashosakari 19,320]

The consecutive yusho requirement has served well in filtering beneficiaries of injury riddled yushos and inconsistent streakers.

Have you actually taken a look at who got promoted via back-to-back yusho before it became a semi-official requirement? All in all, in the six-basho era Harumafuji is the 11th yokozuna to be promoted that way - of the previous 10, no less than three didn't do much of anything as yokozuna. And it's certainly in the realm of possibility that Harumafuji ends up making it 4 of 11. For yokozuna promoted without two yusho it's 5 of 14 (excluding Futahaguro's involuntary exit), perhaps 6 of 14 depending on what one thinks of Sadanoyama's yokozuna career - I don't see much of a difference.

And not the Konishiki nonsense again... Please, just check out Asahifuji's ozeki career.

You associate excitement in Sumo with the numder of Yokozuna in the banzuke which is a mistake.

Spoken like somebody who hasn't been exposed to anything sumo outside the last 10 years, and simply can't imagine things being any other way than they are now.

You want rikishi to be promoted based on hope rather than actual performance.

Which completely fails to address my claim that the "actual performance" criterion you're advocating doesn't actually do the job it's supposed to do. In any case, my point is that anyone who's got a reasonably good understanding of what he's watching up there on the dohyo has no problem recognizing actual potential*, and shouldn't need to rely on the two-yusho crutch - especially not the Kyokai and the YDC who follow this stuff for a living. (Most recent example: Hakuho spending a completely pointless 5 more basho as ozeki after going 13-2, 13-2, 14-1, 13-2 with sumo that was second to none, not even Asashoryu.)

Needless to say I find your idea naive not to mention the scandals that will result with such a haphazard promotion criteria.

Scandals? (Laughing...) The sumo world isn't collapsing just because a yokozuna is having a sub-par year. Even less so if there were two or three others to pick up the slack. Nobody's complaining about Akebono's yokozuna career even though it was rather soft in the middle. And from the opposite angle, I doubt anyone would have found something to complain about if Musashimaru had been promoted already in 1995 than in 1999.

Frankly, you sound rather spoiled and out of touch with reality, probably because you haven't actually witnessed any yokozuna's decline phase thanks to Asashoryu's premature departure.

* To the degree possible in competitive sport; as the numbers in the first part of my response show, you're going to miss sometimes no matter which regime you use.

Edit: Even if Asashoryu had gone 90-0 every year, it wouldn't have made up for all the actual scandals he caused. Being yokozuna isn't only about on-dohyo performance, and the two-yusho "rule" helps perpetuate the misperception that it is. With comments such as yours as prime evidence.

Edited September 26, 2012 by Asashosakari

[Tsubame 361]

You want people to be promoted on potential without putting the yushos required.

But that's the way most (japanese) martial arts go. I recognize a clear difference in promoting people in Japan or here in the "western hemisphere". We western people tend to promote someone after he proved some requirement. In Japan they promote someone and then afterwards want to see that he deserves the new rank.

I thing maybe every martial artist who ever visit Japan can clearly see the differnce between young Shodans promoted in Japan or in there homelands.

And I also the this mental attitute in sumo. Of course there are so less sumotori that the criteria for promotions have to be more strict then somewhere else. But how can you explain the softening of the two-straight-yusho-rule we saw in the last years? It's as Asashosakari said, they recognized that the criteria is not working as intend.

Edited September 26, 2012 by Tsubame

[Kintamayama 45,116]

But how can you explain the softening of the two-straight-yusho-rule we saw in the last years? It's as Asashosakari said, they recognized that the criteria is not working as intend.

Just as a reminder- nothing has actually changed and no one was promoted without back to back yushos. The rest was talk and speculation coming from Kyokai people, the press, and us. Nothing has changed in reality.

Yet.

[Asashosakari 19,320]

But that's the way most (japanese) martial arts go. I recognize a clear difference in promoting people in Japan or here in the "western hemisphere". We western people tend to promote someone after he proved some requirement. In Japan they promote someone and then afterwards want to see that he deserves the new rank.

And even with that cultural difference in play, the Peter Principle is a very Western concept. It's simply a fact that it's impossible to fool-proof a promotion scheme, no matter if you prefer the technocratic approach (a group of "experts" makes the decision), the democratic one (everyone gets to have their say), the dictatorial one, or the automated one (which is what "two yusho" essentially amounts to). Anyone who thinks that the two-yusho guideline is fool-proof is ignoring its past failures as well as all the cases in which it provided no added value over simple common sense.

[Treblemaker 254]

Just to throw my 2 shekels in...

We've been through a period where there just haven't been any good qualifiers for the Yok rank. Not even if you bend the rules to promote a yusho + jun-yusho candidate. (Although, I think that makes as much sense as a 2-yusho qualifier.)

As with any promotion, in business as in sport, you're going to buy whatever the applicant has done and extrapolate what they're going to do to maximize the benefits to your organization. Sometimes you get fooled. And sometimes you get surprised.

Either way, there has to be a line in the sand, and if it's a 2-yusho accomplishment that gets the job done, so be it. Personally, I think a yusho and a damned good performance following it up (jun-yusho?) PLUS a good track record over the last 6-basho year should do the trick.

[Asameshimae 220]

Some great insights. I was hoping this would get a discussion started, as all I was hearing (well beforeHaru had even clinched the second consecutive yusho) was what a mediocre yokozuna Haru would turn out to be.

Asashohikari's comments: "keeping promising ozeki at the ozeki rank too long makes them (some, not all) complacent and liable to not reach their full potential, while a quicker move to the yokozuna rank could well challenge them to achieve the very best they can." sum it up for me in many ways. Being an Ozeki is hard, but it is harder to attain Ozeki than to lose it methinks, so it is too easy for Ozeki to "languish" after a few years. Well, now we are down to four Ozeki, and the least hungry of them is out, maybe we'll see some more fire from this vaunted rank in upcoming tournaments.

Edited September 26, 2012 by Asanomeshi

[Kintamayama 45,116]

Well, now we are down to four Ozeki, and the least hungry of them is out, maybe we'll see some more fire from this vaunted rank in upcoming tournaments.

Five. Don't believe what you read in English.

[Randomitsuki 2,826]

Well, I remain convinced that the rank makes the man as much as the man makes the rank - IMHO, keeping promising ozeki at the ozeki rank too long makes them (some, not all) complacent and liable to not reach their full potential, while a quicker move to the yokozuna rank could well challenge them to achieve the very best they can.

Some lame stats 'to support this claim: the winning percentage of moderrn Yokozuna during their Ozeki tenure (71.9%) went up to 78.4% after promotion.

Of course, there are a number of factors that make this comparison difficult (or lame). The difference could be even bigger given that the Yokozuna numbers contain the inevitable age decline and do not contain the promotion peak. On the other hand, the difference could be smaller as Yokozuna can easily sit out tournaments.

[krindel 671]

Of course, there are a number of factors that make this comparison difficult (or lame). The difference could be even bigger given that the Yokozuna numbers contain the inevitable age decline and do not contain the promotion peak. On the other hand, the difference could be smaller as Yokozuna can easily sit out tournaments.

The "sitting out tournaments" bit is a major difference in Ozeki and Yokozuna mentality, I think. An Ozeki has to keep in mind that a serious injury can cost him rank and priviledge, so has to put extra focus on safety over performance when faced with a nagging problem.

As an extreme example, if Takanohana had pulled off his famous playoff win over Musashimaru from an Ozeki rank, by the time he got back he would be enjoying the view from the lower Maegashira ranks, if not Juryo...

[Kuroyama 715]

Well, now we are down to four Ozeki, and the least hungry of them is out, maybe we'll see some more fire from this vaunted rank in upcoming tournaments.

Five. Don't believe what you read in English.

Or Bulgarian.

[Asameshimae 220]

Well, now we are down to four Ozeki, and the least hungry of them is out, maybe we'll see some more fire from this vaunted rank in upcoming tournaments.

Five. Don't believe what you read in English.

Or Bulgarian.

Yes, I went here just to take it back. A friend (bless her) who is usually very in the know told me by email he was retiring, and as she is usually right, and I figured it would come out in a day or two in the press. She sent me an email a few minutes ago saying someone jumped the gun - and I jumped the gun posting here. Ah well.

If Kotooshu's choice is anywhere near the desiciveness of his sumo, we are in for a long wait.