Promotion/Demotion discussion Hatsu 2013

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Already two open slots in makuuchi - probably three since Tamaasuka is almost toast at 3-7 - but precious few promotion contenders. Sotairyu of all people the second-best candidate? 9-6 might clinch the makuuchi debut for him the way things are going.

0-0-15 Homasho M5

...

M9 Takekaze 3-7 (1)

M10

(2) 3-7 Wakanosato M11

(1) 5-5 Sadanofuji M12 Tamawashi 4-6 (2)

(3) 3-7 Daido M13 Asahisho 3-7 (3)

M14

M15 Kotoyuki 4-6 (3)

(x) 1-9 Miyabiyama M16 Tamaasuka 3-7 (5)

(1) 7-3 Jokoryu J1 Daikiho 4-6 (4)

(3) 6-4 Chiyonokuni J2 Sagatsukasa 6-4 (3)

J3

(2) 8-2 Sotairyu J4

(5) 5-5 Takanoyama J5 Oiwato 7-3 (3)

(5) 6-4 Tenkaiho J6

(5) 6-4 Tokushoryu J7

(5) 7-3 Chiyootori J8 Homarefuji 7-3 (5)

(5) 7-3 Kyokushuho J9

Pretty unlikely that those 5-wins-needed guys will reel off a winning streak, but with so many of them in the running you never know.

No clear demotions from juryo yet, but it looks like we're headed towards at least three free spots. Hard to see all of Hochiyama/Takamisakari/Kagamio saving themselves, especially as the two veterans have looked pretty terrible. One spot claimed so far by yusho-contending Oniarashi, but other than that it's still an open race (not terribly unusual after 5 bouts).

J4 Kimurayama 2-8 (1)

J5

J6 Asasekiryu 3-4-3 (1)

...

(1) 5-5 Azumaryu J10 Akiseyama 5-5 (1)

(1) 5-5 Tokushinho J11 Hochiyama 3-7 (3)

(4) 3-7 Takamisakari J12 Kotoyutaka 2-8 (5)

J13 Shironoryu 2-8 (5)

(3) 5-5 Kagamio J14 Nionoumi 6-4 (2)

5-0 Oniarashi Ms1 Sadanoumi 2-3

3-2 Sensho Ms2 Kitaharima 3-3

2-3 Nishikigi Ms3 Tochihiryu 4-1

Ms4

2-3 Kawanari Ms5 Arawashi 4-1

Takamisakari-Sensho is tomorrow's crossover bout, and one has to think it's a must-win bout for Sakari...I can't see him coming back from 3-8. Tomorrow's high makushita bouts might provide some additional clarity as everybody else in the promotion race is also in action.

[Nabuko 11]

What about with let say 5-2 score?

3-2 Kotokuni Ms6 Seiro

3-2

[Asashosakari 19,331]

What about with let say 5-2 score?

3-2 Kotokuni Ms6 Seiro 3-2

It's possible, of course, but should be very unlikely with the numbers of demotion and promotion candidates this basho. We'll know more after Day 12. :-)

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

Sotairyu of all people the second-best candidate? 9-6 might clinch the makuuchi debut for him the way things are going.

Well, he will finally make it into your Bench Sumo team. B-) Edited January 23, 2013 by Jakusotsu

[Koorifuu 1,001]

Takamisakari's sound defeat to Sensho could well end up being a direct swap.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 11:

Things have cleared up quite a bit on both sides of the divisional boundary. Takekaze should be safe now, with his clinching win coming at the expense of Tamaasuka who is definitely going back to juryo after this. The rest of the field has also separated, one trio now only needs to win one bout out of four, while another three rikishi need to win 3. If the latter group does sufficiently badly, even Homasho might still get to stay in makuuchi.

Lots of longshot candidates in juryo suffered losses, and I'm treating Takanoyama, Tokushoryu and Kyokushuho as too far down the rankings for now; maybe to be added back in if they go on a winning streak and we're still short of promotion candidates. Tenkaiho also lost but is in a relatively better position than those three, so he'll get question-marked for the moment. Jokoryu is now assured a return to makuuchi, while Chiyonokuni joins Sotairyu in needing only a 2-2 the rest of the way.

0-0-15 Homasho M5

...

M9 Takekaze 4-7 (o)

M10

(1) 4-7 Wakanosato M11

(1) 5-6 Sadanofuji M12 Tamawashi 5-6 (1)

(3) 3-8 Daido M13 Asahisho 3-8 (3)

M14

M15 Kotoyuki 4-7 (3)

(x) 1-10 Miyabiyama M16 Tamaasuka 3-8 (x)

(o) 8-3 Jokoryu J1 Daikiho 5-6 (3)

(2) 7-4 Chiyonokuni J2 Sagatsukasa 6-5 (3)

J3

(2) 8-3 Sotairyu J4

(x) 5-6 Takanoyama J5 Oiwato 7-4 (3)

(?) 6-5 Tenkaiho J6

(x) 6-5 Tokushoryu J7

(4) 8-3 Chiyootori J8 Homarefuji 8-3 (4)

(x) 7-4 Kyokushuho J9

Lots of decisive action at the juryo/makushita line as well - or non-action in Shironoryu's case, whose departure with injury also sealed his demotion. Two bouts later Kotoyutaka also fell to 2-9 and a likely trip back to makushita, and Takamisakari is now teetering on the edge at 3-8. Hochiyama was another loser on the day and faces an uphill battle as well. Meanwhile, Akiseyama and Tokushinho collected the decisive 6th win to maintain their position in juryo.

J4 Kimurayama 2-9 (1)

J5

J6 Asasekiryu 3-5-3 (1)

...

(1) 5-6 Azumaryu J10 Akiseyama 6-5 (o)

(o) 6-5 Tokushinho J11 Hochiyama 3-8 (3)

(4) 3-8 Takamisakari J12 Kotoyutaka 2-9 (x)

J13 Shironoryu 2-9 (x)

(2) 6-5 Kagamio J14 Nionoumi 7-4 (1)

6-0 Oniarashi Ms1 Sadanoumi 2-4 (x)

4-2 Sensho Ms2 Kitaharima 3-3

(x) 2-4 Nishikigi Ms3 Tochihiryu 5-1

Ms4

3-3 Kawanari Ms5 Arawashi 4-2

Not much of a point in posting the matrix of possibilities this time, since it's all pretty clear cut. Sensho and Tochihiryu aren't fully assured of going to juryo yet, but it's hard to see one missing out as it's very likely that a third slot will open up. Kitaharima and Arawashi will need another win and more demotable juryo rikishi, while Sadanoumi and Nishikigi have bowed out with their losses today.

[Ruziklao 34]

Well, Takanoyama again no, that is reality. I'd like to see him KK to move closer to promotion line for Haru, but it is now 3/4 needed.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 12:

All makuuchi rikishi at risk won today except Wakanosato who lost a direct matchup against Asahisho. Sadanofuji and Tamawashi should now be safe.

Chiyonokuni won to achieve KK and has likely secured a return to makuuchi (although still needing one more win by the numbers), while of the other high-ranked contenders only Sagatsukasa helped himself today.

0-0-15 Homasho M5

...

(1) 4-8 Wakanosato M11

(o) 6-6 Sadanofuji M12 Tamawashi 6-6 (o)

(2) 4-8 Daido M13 Asahisho 4-8 (2)

M14

M15 Kotoyuki 5-7 (2)

(x) 1-11 Miyabiyama M16 Tamaasuka 3-9 (x)

(o) 9-3 Jokoryu J1 Daikiho 5-7 (3)

(1) 8-4 Chiyonokuni J2 Sagatsukasa 7-5 (2)

J3

(2) 8-4 Sotairyu J4

J5 Oiwato 7-5 (3)

(?) 7-5 Tenkaiho J6

J7

(?) 8-4 Chiyootori J8 Homarefuji 9-3 (3)

Hochiyama beat Asasekiryu in a match of demotion candidates, while Kimurayama and Azumaryu collected their last needed win for safety. Kagamio and Takamisakari lost, the latter now down by the numbers and only able to stay in juryo through banzuke luck (and three more wins in any case).

J4 Kimurayama 3-9 (o)

J5

J6 Asasekiryu 3-6-3 (1)

...

(o) 6-6 Azumaryu J10

J11 Hochiyama 4-8 (2)

(x) 3-9 Takamisakari J12 Kotoyutaka 2-10 (x)

J13 Shironoryu 2-9-1 (x)

(2) 6-6 Kagamio J14 Nionoumi 8-4 (o)

6-0 Oniarashi Ms1

4-2 Sensho Ms2 Kitaharima 3-3

Ms3 Tochihiryu 5-1

Ms4

3-3 Kawanari Ms5 Arawashi 4-2

[botev1921 33]

Based on your knowledge who will have a better shot at going up - Sotairyu from J4 with 10 wins or Sagatsukasa from J2 with 8?

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

Based on your knowledge who will have a better shot at going up - Sotairyu from J4 with 10 wins or Sagatsukasa from J2 with 8?

In this case it's pretty clearly Sotairyu.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 13:

Miyabiyama seems determined to test out one of those unwritten banzuke rules, namely that demotees from makuuchi shouldn't fall behind promotees from makushita...at 1-12 for him and 7-0 for lead makushita Oniarashi that's getting rather unworkable now. Anyway, onto rikishi who aren't yet demoted: Kotoyuki won a quick one against Shotenro while Daido had to work harder against juryo visitor Sotairyu, but both are now just one win away from safety. That's true also for Wakanosato but he was already there before today and was unable to clear himself against Toyohibiki. Asahisho also lost and is the sole most endangered candidate now. All four rikishi get opponents from the single-digit ranks tomorrow, in Wakanosato's case even somebody from the joi (Gagamaru).

On the juryo side there's still only Jokoryu as a definitive promotee, although the field of candidates remains large. As mentioned Sotairyu missed out on putting himself into a good position in a crossover bout, while Chiyonokuni lost pretty decisively against yusho-hunting Takanoiwa. On the other hand the other J2 Sagatsukasa reached kachikoshi today and is currently in line for the third available slot. His win sent Homarefuji down to borderline candidate status, while further losses by Tenkaiho and Chiyootori mean they're no longer even borderline. Still in the race are Oiwato and Daikiho after winning today, although like Homarefuji they'll certainly need to win both remaining bouts to have any chance.

0-0-15 Homasho M5

...

(1) 4-9 Wakanosato M11

M12

(1) 5-8 Daido M13 Asahisho 4-9 (2)

M14

M15 Kotoyuki 6-7 (1)

(x) 1-12 Miyabiyama M16 Tamaasuka 4-9 (x)

(o) 10-3 Jokoryu J1 Daikiho 6-7 (2)

(1) 8-5 Chiyonokuni J2 Sagatsukasa 8-5 (1)

J3

(2) 8-5 Sotairyu J4

J5 Oiwato 8-5 (2)

(x) 7-6 Tenkaiho J6

J7

(x) 8-5 Chiyootori J8 Homarefuji 9-4 (?)

Further down Asasekiryu won a tough matchup between one-legged rikishi against Kotoyutaka to avoid demotion for good. Hochiyama and Kagamio beat their visiting opponents from makushita as well, which is bad news for Takamisakari - his win today means he's still not completely out, but (in addition to two wins of his own) he'll now need straight losses by either Hochiyama or Kagamio on the final days to have any chance of staying.

Hochiyama and Kagamio will face another pair of visitors tomorrow as Kitaharima and Kawanari drop in, while Takamisakari gets Asasekiryu.

J6 Asasekiryu 4-6-3 (o)

...

J11 Hochiyama 5-8 (1)

(x) 4-9 Takamisakari J12 Kotoyutaka 2-11 (x)

J13 Shironoryu 2-9-2 (x)

(1) 7-6 Kagamio J14

7-0 Oniarashi Ms1

4-3 Sensho Ms2 Kitaharima 3-3

Ms3 Tochihiryu 5-1

Ms4

3-3 Kawanari Ms5 Arawashi 4-3

Edit: In fact, a Hochiyama loss tomorrow doesn't even help Takamisakari as it would establish Kitaharima as a fourth claimant for a promotion. The lifelines are getting shorter and shorter...

Edited January 25, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Jakusotsu 5,969]

In fact, a Hochiyama loss tomorrow doesn't even help Takamisakari as it would establish Kitaharima as a fourth claimant for a promotion. The lifelines are getting shorter and shorter...

If it wasn't for Sakari I'd agree, but I wouldn't be much surprised to see J14 Takamisakari 6-9 and Ms1 Kitaharima 4-3 either.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 14:

Not a great day for maegashira at risk of demotion - Daido beat Takekaze to reach safe ground, but Asahisho, Kotoyuki and Wakanosato all lost. Asahisho is very likely gone after that, the other two enter senshuraku needing a crucial win.

On the juryo side there's finally a second rikishi who has moved from candidate to promotee after Sagatsukasa improved to 9-5. Chiyonokuni lost again and still can't be sure, Oiwato beat Sotairyu in a direct matchup to potentially put himself just one win away from a makuuchi debut (and put Sotairyu in a difficult spot), and Homarefuji and Daikiho remain in with a shout after victories as well.

0-0-15 Homasho M5

...

(1) 4-10 Wakanosato M11

M12

(o) 6-8 Daido M13 Asahisho 4-10 (x)

M14

M15 Kotoyuki 6-8 (1)

(x) 2-12 Miyabiyama M16 Tamaasuka 4-10 (x)

(o) 11-3 Jokoryu J1 Daikiho 7-7 (1)

(1) 8-6 Chiyonokuni J2 Sagatsukasa 9-5 (o)

J3

(?) 8-6 Sotairyu J4

J5 Oiwato 9-5 (1)

J6

J7

J8 Homarefuji 10-4 (?)

(?) 10-4 Kyokushuho J9

Losses all around for the demotion candidates in juryo as well - Takamisakari ought to be down (or out) for good now after losing to Asasekiryu, while Kagamio and Hochiyama fell to their makushita opponents. Oniarashi, Sensho and Tochihiryu should now be guaranteed a promotion, Kitaharima still has to hope for a spot to open up, either via Hochiyama or Kagamio loss, or perhaps a Miyabiyama intai.

J11 Hochiyama 5-9 (1)

(x) 4-10 Takamisakari J12 Kotoyutaka 2-12 (x)

J13 Shironoryu 2-9-3 (x)

(1) 7-7 Kagamio J14

7-0 Oniarashi Ms1

4-3 Sensho Ms2 Kitaharima 4-3

Ms3 Tochihiryu 5-1

Ms4

4-3 Kawanari Ms5 Arawashi 4-3

Edit: I've added Kyokushuho back into the upper table as he's essentially in the same position for a lucky promotion as Homarefuji is.

Edited January 26, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Kudos to the torikumi makers for smartly mixing promotion, demotion and yusho battles in juryo for senshuraku. 11-3 Jokoryu faces 10-4 Kyokushuho - the only match among the four yusho contenders that's still possible - while fellow leader Takanoiwa gets a tough matchup against 7-7 Daikiho who would almost certainly debut in makuuchi if he wins, and fourth yusho contender (and outside promotion candidate) Homarefuji faces Hochiyama who needs to win to avoid falling to makushita.

Chiyonokuni and Oiwato battle out for a promotion spot head-to-head, as Oiwato ought to go ahead in the promotion queue if he wins and Chiyonokuni could fall all the way down to 6th in the queue with a loss, while a win would definitely secure his return to makuuchi. And Sotairyu can help himself to a makuuchi debut by knocking off Kotoyuki in makuuchi as that would open up a 5th spot and put himself into at least 5th place in the queue. Lastly, Kagamio has to defend his claim on a juryo rank against another 7-7 rikishi in Akiseyama, while Wakanosato has to do the same in makuuchi against Shotenro. All in all, a really well done schedule.

Edit: Takayasu-Tochiozan is a very nice matchup as well where Takayasu can open up a sanyaku slot for himself. (Myogiryu will probably get stuck at M1e even if he wins tomorrow.)

Edited January 26, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Vikanohara 171]

Hehe, when seeing your promotion/demotion anticipation, I guess I've still got quite some things to learn on especially Juryo/Makushita movements. :-) So you really think not 6 spots could become available in Juryo, if Miyabiyama goes intai ? Or if you do think it's possible, that Arawashi is safe as 6th candidate ? Seiro at Ms6w could still finish 5-2, and Chiyoarashi at Ms10e even 6-1. Wouldn't that be enough to still surpass Arawashi ?

[Nabuko 11]

From my point of view Seiro with victory tomorrow is more serious contender than Arawashi. Right?

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Hehe, when seeing your promotion/demotion anticipation, I guess I've still got quite some things to learn on especially Juryo/Makushita movements. :-) So you really think not 6 spots could become available in Juryo, if Miyabiyama goes intai ? Or if you do think it's possible, that Arawashi is safe as 6th candidate ? Seiro at Ms6w could still finish 5-2, and Chiyoarashi at Ms10e even 6-1. Wouldn't that be enough to still surpass Arawashi ?

If Miyabiyama intais, my guess would be four promotions and Kagamio and Hochiyama would luck into staying even if they lose. I don't think any of Kawanari/Arawashi/Seiro/Chiyoarashi have done enough to force down a J11w 5-10 or a J14e 7-8, at least by the track record of the last ~10 years.

[Vikanohara 171]

Okay, my understandings were :

- if Hochiyama loses, he's out anyway

- if he wins, he's still out ik Kagamio wins as well

So if both lose & Miyabiyama intais, that we would get 3 extra demotion spots.

But I must admit I'm too inexperienced on this matter. So I'm going to trust your call. (I am not worthy...)

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Okay, my understandings were :

- if Hochiyama loses, he's out anyway

- if he wins, he's still out ik Kagamio wins as well

So if both lose & Miyabiyama intais, that we would get 3 extra demotion spots.

But I must admit I'm too inexperienced on this matter. So I'm going to trust your call. (I am not worthy...)

Well, I can't claim to have a crystal ball, and something like Miyabiyama's situation can make things more complicated than they usually are. The best way I've found to think of it is like this:

1) There is such a thing as a "deserved" promotion, and what counts as one is subject to change over time. Right now it's approximately 4-3's from Ms2 and above, 5-2's from Ms3 and above, and 6-1's from Ms5 and above. (And of course any 7-0 from Ms15 and above). In the 1990s they were more permissive, and the limits for "deserved" were more like Ms3 4-3 and Ms5 5-2.

2) Any "deserved" promotion candidate will force down any juryo rikishi whose record indicates a demotion possibility by the numbers (7-8 on the last rank, 6-9 on the last three ranks, 5-10 on the last five ranks, etc.) In other words, if there's a deserving candidate to take his spot, a demotable juryo rikishi cannot hope for banzuke luck.

3a) If there are more deserving promotion candidates than demotable-by-the-numbers juryo rikishi, some makushita will be unlucky and get stuck in the division. There are no "overdemotions" to make room nowadays. (The last one took place in 2001.)

3b) If there are fewer deserving promotion candidates than demotable-by-the-numbers juryo rikishi, it becomes a question of how far away the potential claimants for the last spot(s) are from deserving status. The last basho provided a nice illustration of the principle - Nionoumi at J11w 5-10 didn't really deserve to stay, but Sadanoumi (Ms6e 4-3) and Oniarashi (Ms8e 5-2) also didn't really deserve to get promoted. IMO they made the right call - Nionoumi was "less undeserving" than Sadanoumi and Oniarashi. (It's a bit dangerous to put it in numbers because that's almost certainly NOT how the banzuke committee does it, but you might think of it like this: If Nionoumi had won one more bout and finished 6-9, he would have been safe. On the other hand, if Sadanoumi or Oniarashi had won one more, they still would have been undeserving promotion candidates at Ms6e 5-2 or Ms8e 6-1. So Nionoumi was closer to "deserves to be in juryo" status than they were.)

The situation this basho is pretty difficult to decide actually - well, I'm fairly sure that Chiyoarashi is too far down at Ms10e even with 6 wins. However, between

J11w Hochiyama 5-10

J14e Kagamio 7-8

Ms5e Kawanari 4-3

Ms5w Arawashi 4-3

Ms6w Seiro 5-2

it would probably be possible to justify almost any solution. That said, it's my impression that debutants have to do a little better than returnees (notable exception from the last few years: Baruto), and I think that speaks against Kawanari and Seiro.

Edited January 26, 2013 by Asashosakari

[ronnie 221]

Here's a scenario;

If Goeido, Tochiozan and Aminishiki all win their bouts on senshuraku and Baruto losses his, does Baruto go down to M1?

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

Here's a scenario;

If Goeido, Tochiozan and Aminishiki all win their bouts on senshuraku and Baruto losses his, does Baruto go down to M1?

Don't think so. Baruto would be K1W, wouldn't he? Goeido stays where he is, Tochiozan goes up to Sekiwake, Aminishiki up to K1E.

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

Of course a 13-2 Takayasu would complicate things...perhaps!

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

Of course a 13-2 Takayasu would complicate things...perhaps!

Yes perhaps... well, no, not really, since he is up against Tochiozan, so he is 12-3, and likely to become M1.

[Achiyama 1,245]

How low will Homasho fall after 0-0-15? Is there a possibility of dropping to Juryo or not?

[Nabuko 11]

How low will Homasho fall after 0-0-15? Is there a possibility of dropping to Juryo or not?

There is chance of droping to juryo. Lot depends to tomorrow outcome of juryo bouts in particular Takanoiwa-Daikiho. This is my opinion.