Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Natsu 2013

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Sorry, a bit late starting up this thread... In any case, as always you're cordially invited to predict how the following rikishi will fare in furthering their ongoing KK streaks:

1. Hakuho 37 [score?]

2. Kisenosato 14 [score?]

3. Harumafuji 13 [score?]

4. Kakuryu 13 [score?]

5. Chiyoarashi 7

6. Azumaryu 6

7. Osunaarashi 6*

8. Fujiazuma 5

9. Kotomisen 5

10. Hamaguchi 5*

11. Takatoshi 5

12. Daigofuji 5

13. Sadanishiki 5

14. Goeido 4 [score?]

15. Tochiozan 4 [score?]

16. Kyokushuho 4

17. Homarefuji 4

18. Kizenryu 4

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

- For yokozuna, ozeki and sekiwake (and Tochiozan*): Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.

- For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

* I have included Tochiozan in the high-rankers who require an exact prediction, contrary to the regular rules, as his KK streak has come almost entirely in the meatgrinder. Do keep in mind you're free to predict a makekoshi for him, too. (No need for an exact record if it's below 8-7. The same goes for the other 5 high-rankers, of course.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 18 guys up there and the further 4 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 22. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Yokozuna, ozeki and sekiwake (and Tochiozan) count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 17 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hakuho.

Penultimate tie-breaker, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number.

Final tie-breaker, should two or more players with identical ballots have entered identical tie-breaker guesses as well or be at the same distance from opposite sides: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

Edited May 10, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Asojima 2,874]

1. Hakuho 14

2. Kisenosato 9

3. Harumafuji 13

4. Kakuryu 9

5. Chiyoarashi Y

6. Azumaryu Y

7. Osunaarashi Y

8. Fujiazuma N

9. Kotomisen N

10. Hamaguchi N

11. Takatoshi Y

12. Daigofuji N

13. Sadanishiki N

14. Goeido 10

15. Tochiozan 7

16. Kyokushuho Y

17. Homarefuji Y

18. Kizenryu N

Tiebreaker: 13

[Fay 1,677]

1. Hakuho 14
2. Kisenosato 9
3. Harumafuji 11
4. Kakuryu 10
5. Chiyoarashi Y
6. Azumaryu Y
7. Osunaarashi Y
8. Fujiazuma Y
9. Kotomisen Y
10. Hamaguchi Y
11. Takatoshi N
12. Daigofuji N
13. Sadanishiki N
14. Goeido 11
15. Tochiozan 10
16. Kyokushuho Y
17. Homarefuji N
18. Kizenryu N

Tiebreaker: 12

[Profomisakari 857]

.1. Hakuho 14
.2. Kisenosato 11
.3. Harumafuji 12
.4. Kakuryu 10
.5. Chiyoarashi KK
.6. Azumaryu KK
.7. Osunaarashi KK
.8. Fujiazuma MK
.9. Kotomisen MK
10. Hamaguchi KK
11. Takatoshi MK
12. Daigofuji KK
13. Sadanishiki KK
14. Goeido 9
15. Tochiozan 7
16. Kyokushuho KK
17. Homarefuji KK
18. Kizenryu MK

Tiebreaker 13

Profomisakari

[chishafuwaku 476]

1. Hakuho 14

2. Kisenosato 10

3. Harumafuji 12

4. Kakuryu 8

5. Chiyoarashi Make-koshi

6. Azumaryu Make-koshi

7. Osunaarashi Kachi-koshi

8. Fujiazuma Kachi-koshi

9. Kotomisen Kachi-koshi

10. Hamaguchi Make-koshi

11. Takatoshi Make-koshi

12. Daigofuji Kachi-koshi

13. Sadanishiki Kachi-koshi

14. Goeido 9

15. Tochiozan 10

16. Kyokushuho Make-koshi

17. Homarefuji Make-koshi

18. Kizenryu Kachi-koshi

Tiebreak 14

[Mmikasazuma 12]

1. Hakuho 14
2. Kisenosato 10
3. Harumafuji 11
4. Kakuryu 8
5. Chiyoarashi KK
6. Azumaryu KK
7. Osunaarashi KK
8. Fujiazuma KK
9. Kotomisen MK
10. Hamaguchi KK
11. Takatoshi KK
12. Daigofuji MK
13. Sadanishiki MK
14. Goeido 9
15. Tochiozan 8
16. Kyokushuho KK
17. Homarefuji MK
18. Kizenryu KK

[Jejima 1,385]

1. Hakuho 37 [14-1]
2. Kisenosato 14 [11-4]
3. Harumafuji 13 [12-3]
4. Kakuryu 13 [9-6]
5. Chiyoarashi Y
6. Azumaryu N
7. Osunaarashi Y - I hope
8. Fujiazuma Y
9. Kotomisen N
10. Hamaguchi Y
11. Takatoshi Y
12. Daigofuji N
13. Sadanishiki N
14. Goeido 4 [9-6]
15. Tochiozan 4 [8-7]
16. Kyokushuho Y
17. Homarefuji N
18. Kizenryu N

Edit: Thanks for the PM reminder regarding tie-breakers!

TB = 14

Edited May 11, 2013 by Jejima

[Vikanohara 171]

[13-2] 1. Hakuho

[10-5] 2. Kisenosato

[12-3] 3. Harumafuji

[9-6] 4. Kakuryu

KK 5. Chiyoarashi

mk 6. Azumaryu

KK 7. Osunaarashi
mk 8. Fujiazuma

mk 9. Kotomisen

KK 10. Hamaguchi

mk 11. Takatoshi

mk 12. Daigofuji

mk 13. Sadanishiki

[10-5] 14. Goeido

[8-7] 15. Tochiozan

mk 16. Kyokushuho

mk 17. Homarefuji

KK 18. Kizenryu

TB 12

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

1. Hakuho 13
2. Kisenosato 10
3. Harumafuji 11
4. Kakuryu 8
5. Chiyoarashi Y
6. Azumaryu Y
7. Osunaarashi Y
8. Fujiazuma N
9. Kotomisen N
10. Hamaguchi Y
11. Takatoshi Y
12. Daigofuji N
13. Sadanishiki N
14. Goeido 9
15. Tochiozan 9
16. Kyokushuho N
17. Homarefuji N
18. Kizenryu Y

Tiebreaker: 11

[Holleshoryu 16]

1. Hakuho 14
2. Kisenosato 10
3. Harumafuji 12
4. Kakuryu 9
5. Chiyoarashi Y
6. Azumaryu Y
7. Osunaarashi Y
8. Fujiazuma Y
9. Kotomisen N
10. Hamaguchi Y
11. Takatoshi Y
12. Daigofuji N
13. Sadanishiki N
14. Goeido 10
15. Tochiozan 6
16. Kyokushuho Y
17. Homarefuji Y
18. Kizenryu Y

Tiebreaker: 14

[Tsubame 361]

1. Hakuho 12
2. Kisenosato 10
3. Harumafuji 11
4. Kakuryu MK
5. Chiyoarashi KK
6. Azumaryu MK
7. Osunaarashi K K
8. Fujiazuma KK
9. Kotomisen KK
10. Hamaguchi KK
11. Takatoshi MK
12. Daigofuji MK
13. Sadanishiki KK
14. Goeido 8
15. Tochiozan 9
16. Kyokushuho KK
17. Homarefuji MK
18. Kizenryu KK

Tiebreaker: 16

[kuroimori 1,634]

1. Hakuho 13
2. Kisenosato 10
3. Harumafuji 11
4. Kakuryu 8
5. Chiyoarashi KK
6. Azumaryu MK
7. Osunaarashi KK
8. Fujiazuma MK
9. Kotomisen MK
10. Hamaguchi KK
11. Takatoshi KK
12. Daigofuji MK
13. Sadanishiki KK
14. Goeido 9
15. Tochiozan 9
16. Kyokushuho MK
17. Homarefuji MK
18. Kizenryu MK

TB 11

[Achiyama 1,245]

My picks are:

1. Hakuho 37 [13-2]
2. Kisenosato 14 [10-5]
3. Harumafuji 13 [11-4]
4. Kakuryu 13 [ 8-7]
5. Chiyoarashi 7 KK
6. Azumaryu 6 MK
7. Osunaarashi 6* KK
8. Fujiazuma 5 MK
9. Kotomisen 5 MK
10. Hamaguchi 5* MK
11. Takatoshi 5 KK
12. Daigofuji 5 MK
13. Sadanishiki 5 MK
14. Goeido 4 [10-5]
15. Tochiozan 4 [ 8-7]
16. Kyokushuho 4 MK
17. Homarefuji 4 MK
18. Kizenryu 4 KK

Tie-breaker: 12

[Asashosakari 19,331]

14-1 Hakuho
11-4 Kisenosato
11-4 Harumafuji
8-7 Kakuryu
+ Chiyoarashi
- Azumaryu
+ Osunaarashi
- Fujiazuma
- Kotomisen
- Hamaguchi
- Takatoshi
- Daigofuji
- Sadanishiki
9-6 Goeido
MK Tochiozan
+ Kyokushuho
- Homarefuji
- Kizenryu

TB 10

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

Ooh! Almost forgot this but just before the deadline.

Hakuho 14

Kisenosato 10

Harumafuji 11

Kakuryu 9

Chiyoarashi Y

Azumaryu N

Osunaarashi Y

Fujiazuma N

Kotomisen N

Hamaguchi Y

Takatoshi N

Daigofuji N

Sadanishiki N

Goeido 9

Tochiozan 8

Kyokushuho Y

Homarefuji N

Kizenryu N

TB: 12

Pandaazuma

[Asashosakari 19,331]

(Welcome...) to newcomers chishafuwaku and Tsubame! 14 players have made an entry this basho:

Player	Haku	Kise	Haru	Kaku	Chi	Azu	Osu	Fuji	Koto	Hama	Taka	Dai	Sada	Goei	Ozan	Kyo	Homa	Kiz	TB	Cons
Asojima	+ (14-1)	- (9-6)	+ (13-2)	+ (9-6)	+	+	+	-	-	-	+	-	-	+ (10-5)	- (MK)	+	+	-	13	1.93
Fay	+ (14-1)	- (9-6)	- (11-4)	+ (10-5)	+	+	+	+	+	+	-	-	-	+ (11-4)	+ (10-5)	+	-	-	12	1.89
Profomisakari	+ (14-1)	+ (11-4)	+ (12-3)	+ (10-5)	+	+	+	-	-	+	-	+	+	- (9-6)	- (MK)	+	+	-	13	2.17
chishafuwaku	+ (14-1)	- (10-5)	+ (12-3)	- (8-7)	-	-	+	+	+	-	-	+	+	- (9-6)	+ (10-5)	-	-	+	14	2.45
Mmikasazuma	+ (14-1)	- (10-5)	- (11-4)	- (8-7)	+	+	+	+	-	+	+	-	-	- (9-6)	- (8-7)	+	-	+	99	1.56
Jejima	+ (14-1)	+ (11-4)	+ (12-3)	+ (9-6)	+	-	+	+	-	+	+	-	-	- (9-6)	- (8-7)	+	-	-	14	1.73
Vikanohara	- (13-2)	- (10-5)	+ (12-3)	+ (9-6)	+	-	+	-	-	+	-	-	-	+ (10-5)	- (8-7)	-	-	+	12	1.77
Doitsuyama	- (13-2)	- (10-5)	- (11-4)	- (8-7)	+	+	+	-	-	+	+	-	-	- (9-6)	+ (9-6)	-	-	+	11	1.77
Holleshoryu	+ (14-1)	- (10-5)	+ (12-3)	+ (9-6)	+	+	+	+	-	+	+	-	-	+ (10-5)	- (MK)	+	+	+	14	1.85
Tsubame	- (12-3)	- (10-5)	- (11-4)	- (MK)	+	-	+	+	+	+	-	-	+	- (8-7)	+ (9-6)	+	-	+	16	1.96
kuroimori	- (13-2)	- (10-5)	- (11-4)	- (8-7)	+	-	+	-	-	+	+	-	+	- (9-6)	+ (9-6)	-	-	-	11	1.85
Achiyama	- (13-2)	- (10-5)	- (11-4)	- (8-7)	+	-	+	-	-	-	+	-	-	+ (10-5)	- (8-7)	-	-	+	12	1.85
Asashosakari	+ (14-1)	+ (11-4)	- (11-4)	- (8-7)	+	-	+	-	-	-	-	-	-	- (9-6)	- (MK)	+	-	-	10	1.77
Pandaazuma	+ (14-1)	- (10-5)	- (11-4)	+ (9-6)	+	-	+	-	-	+	-	-	-	- (9-6)	- (8-7)	+	-	-	12	1.46
[/td]	9:5	3:11	6:8	7:7	13:1	6:8	14:0	6:8	3:11	10:4	7:7	2:12	4:10	5:9	5:9	9:5	3:11	7:7

17 picks in play as Osunaarashi has been (unsurprisingly) picked as a KK finisher by everyone.

Hakuho once again goes for his standard 14-1 target, while injury-plagued Harumafuji drops to 11-4. Kakuryu's goal was also reduced by one win to 9-6, and the Kisenosato selections narrowly resulted in an 11-4 target again (3x 11-4, 2x 9-6, the rest 10-5). Like last basho there's rather large variety among the picks that have resulted from the conversion to up/down votes - 4 players have entered all-minus slates, 2 are playing with all-plus, the other 8 entrants all have unique selections.

Sanyaku newcomers (for the game anyway) Goeido and Tochiozan were also predicted for more than standard KKs, with a 10-5 for the sekiwake and 9-6 for the komusubi.

A mixed bag among toriteki not named Osunaarashi - Hamaguchi received a majority of KK votes, Takatoshi an exact 7:7 split, and the other three Kotomisen, Daigofuji and Sadanishiki are all longshots for a good basho if we know what we're talking about.

Rounding out the large ballot this basho are no less than 6 more sekitori. Juryo returnee Chiyoarashi is considered almost a lock for kachikoshi, the second-most optimistic score was achieved by Kyokushuho, a returnee himself but to one division higher. Sekitori rookie Kizenryu collected 7 votes apiece, shin-maku Azumaryu stands at 6:8, as does maegashira regular Fujiazuma. Only the other new makuuchi on the ballot, Homarefuji, is widely expected to struggle.

The tie-breaker selections are concentrated in the range of 11-14 this basho, with one vote each for 10 and 16 (and one forgotten entry).

Despite the long ballot Pandaazuma has achieved the unthinkable - he has voted with the majority on all 15 rikishi that didn't end up with a 7:7 split, for the minimum possible consensus score of 1.46. Mmikasazuma is also near the minimum, having voted against the mainstream only on close-to-even Azumaryu and Fujiazuma (but with opposite picks to Pandaazuma on all three 7:7's, as it happens). 10 more players are all pretty close to the mean score of 1.86, leaving two entrants to have very unusual slates this time, namely Profomisakari and rookie chishafuwaku. I don't know how she did it ;-) but our usual suspect Fay has a pretty average squad for a change. The maximum possible consensus score clocks in at 2.80 this time.

Both outrageous selectors also figure into the pairs of players with the most ballot disagreements; the pairs of Achiyama/Profomisakari, Asojima/chishafuwaku and Asojima/Tsubame all have just 5 picks in common. The greatest prediction harmony was achieved by Asashosakari/Pandaazuma, Asojima/Holleshoryu and Doitsuyama/kuroimori with 15 common choices each.

Good luck, everyone!

Edited May 14, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 7:

An earlier than usual first update here as two rikishi have already reached decisive records - Osunaarashi's kachikoshi doesn't quite come as a surprise (except perhaps in him taking only 4 bouts) and everyone scores a point for it, but meanwhile veteran Sadanishiki is already 0-4 and off the ballot again. Most players suspected that outcome as well.

Day 7: 2/18 Decisions, TB 1-21
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	2	10
2	Doitsuyama	2	11
3	Achiyama	2	12
3	Fay	2	12
3	Pandaazuma	2	12
3	Vikanohara	2	12
7	Asojima	2	13
8	Holleshoryu	2	14
8	Jejima	2	14
10	Mmikasazuma	2	[/td]

11

kuroimori

1

11

12

Profomisakari

1

13

13

chishafuwaku

1

14

14

Tsubame

1

16

Edited May 18, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 8:

Nothing new here except early KKs for Hakuho, Kisenosato and Kakuryu.

Day 9:

Tochiozan is the first high-ranker to miss his target as he now cannot finish 9-6, and veteran heavyweight Daigofuji finds himself makekoshi early at 1-4 in makushita. Most players add two points to their tally. In the underpopulated backup realm Sakaguchi is also 1-4 and won't make it onto the next ballot.

Day 9: 4/18 Decisions, TB 4-20
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	4	10
2	Achiyama	4	12
2	Pandaazuma	4	12
2	Vikanohara	4	12
5	Asojima	4	13
6	Holleshoryu	4	14
6	Jejima	4	14
8	Mmikasazuma	4	[/td]

9

Doitsuyama

3

11

10

Fay

3

12

11

kuroimori

2

11

12

Profomisakari

2

13

13

Tsubame

2

16

14

chishafuwaku

1

14

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 10:

Still not a whole lot of happenings. Kakuryu's 9th win moved him into the + column to the delight of seven players, and Harumafuji is now KK. The backup ranks have their first (and quite likely only) KK after Mankajo improved to 4-1 to make it onto the July ballot.

Day 10: 5/18 Decisions, TB 6-19
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Pandaazuma	5	12
1	Vikanohara	5	12
3	Asojima	5	13
4	Holleshoryu	5	14
4	Jejima	5	14
6	Asashosakari	4	10
7	Achiyama	4	12
7	Fay	4	12
9	Mmikasazuma	4	[/td]

10

Doitsuyama

3

11

11

Profomisakari

3

13

12

kuroimori

2

11

13

Tsubame

2

16

14

chishafuwaku

1

14

Edited May 22, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 11:

Stuff happened today, quite a bit of stuff in fact. Kisenosato collected win #11 to reach his target, which was the only minority decision of the day. The other three incoming events were all predicted by the majority among us, namely Goeido's failure to finish 10-5 or better, Homarefuji's makekoshi and Hamaguchi's KK. The overall scoring was pretty high as a result, and exactly half of the 14 entrants collected 3 out of 4 points. The other 7 players variously scored the other possible amounts, led by Jejima who ran the table and trailed by Asojima who missed out on all four. (Ouch!)

In the backup squad there's another makekoshi as expected with young and pint-sized Terutsuyoshi. Only veteran Yamatofuji still has to decide his fate here at 3-3.

The standings have been nicely spread out by today's developments, with the day's big winner Jejima also taking over the sole lead (and remaining perfect through 9 decisions!):

Day 11: 9/18 Decisions, TB 7-17
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Jejima	9	14
2	Pandaazuma	8	12
3	Asashosakari	7	10
4	Vikanohara	7	12
5	Mmikasazuma	7	[/td]

6

Doitsuyama

6

11

7

Fay

6

12

8

Profomisakari

6

13

9

Holleshoryu

6

14

10

kuroimori

5

11

11

Achiyama

5

12

12

Asojima

5

13

13

Tsubame

5

16

14

chishafuwaku

3

14

Edited May 22, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 12:

Takatoshi improved to 4-2 and kachikoshi today, while kyujo Kyokushuho's absence from tomorrow's torikumi means his 8th loss/yasumi. Only Achiyama, Doitsuyama and kuroimori score both points; Jejima's run of perfection comes to an end but his lead expands anyway as his closest pursuer Pandaazuma missed out on both results and the aforementioned trio were all in the lower reaches of the standings.

Day 12: 11/18 Decisions, TB 8-16
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Jejima	10	14
2	Doitsuyama	8	11
3	Pandaazuma	8	12
3	Vikanohara	8	12
5	Mmikasazuma	8	[/td]

6

Asashosakari

7

10

7

kuroimori

7

11

8

Achiyama

7

12

9

Holleshoryu

7

14

10

Fay

6

12

11

Asojima

6

13

11

Profomisakari

6

13

13

Tsubame

5

16

14

chishafuwaku

4

14

It'll be a bit longer until we get decisive action as only 2 of the remaining 7 rikishi can reach an outcome tomorrow already.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 13:

Basically nothing happened today, the only change to the scoresheet came courtesy of Tochiozan's makekoshi, but that's only of secondary importance to the game after he already missed his target mark. On a self-serving note, my low end tie-breaker guess is looking pretty good now with 5 of the remaining 7 rikishi at 6-7... (The other two are 3-3 in makushita.)

As I have nothing else to report, I'll quickly mention that Kotoshogiku will be rejoining the ballot next basho. He'll be the only 4-KK sekitori guest, all other candidates have already busted, Tochihiryu was the last to fall today.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 14:

The results came in bunches today - Hakuho's 14th win saw him reach the game target, the trio of Chiyoarashi, Azumaryu and Kizenryu all fell to MK and makushita-joi Kotomisen improved to 4-3 in a juryo visit. With tie-breaker implications we also had makekoshi for Goeido and backupper Yamatofuji. All that means one thing: Congrats on the Natsu basho yusho, Jejima! (Holiday feeling...) Pandaazuma can still catch him on points tomorrow, but would miss out on the 2nd slot tie-breaker due to not trusting Kisenosato.

Day 14: 16/18 Decisions, TB 9-10
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Jejima	13	14
2	Pandaazuma	11	12
3	Asashosakari	10	10
4	kuroimori	9	11
4	Fay	9	12
4	Mmikasazuma	9	[/td]

4

Vikanohara

9

12

8

Doitsuyama

8

11

8

Achiyama

8

12

8

Asojima

8

13

8

chishafuwaku

8

14

8

Holleshoryu

8

14

8

Profomisakari

8

13

14

Tsubame

7

16

The two remaining decisions are Harumafuji in the yokozuna bout and Fujiazuma's KK/MK decider. Asashosakari is the only one who can still hit the TB score and collect the bonus win if Fujiazuma improves to 8-7. (Although I've predicted a makekoshi for him, so it doesn't make much of a difference which way he goes...) Going to be a much shorter ballot again next time.

There are pretty diverse selections for the last two rikishi: 3x Haru yes and Fuji no, 3x Haru no and Fuji yes, 3x both yes, and 5x both no. With lots of players currently at 8 or 9 points there are still a lot of us who haven't decided their own KK/MK fate.

[Jejima 1,385]

I won? With one day to go? (Applauding...)

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

Very happy to finish so high in a game I'm usually pretty mediocre at. Nice to beat Asasho too...he usually stuffs me! Thanks again for organizing this great little game!