Promotion/Demotion discussion Natsu 2013

[kuroimori 1,634]

With the sad event of Baruto going kyujo and the poor results so far from the komusubi,

it looks there will be 3 open sanyaku slots available.

Right now Myogiryu has of course the best shot at the Sekiwake West slot but for komusubi slots in July there are quite a few candidates looming starting with Aoiyama.

At the south end of Makuuhi, only Daikiho and Wakanosato look like surefire Juryo demotees, while there are already 3 promotion candidates to Makuuchi lurking in upper Juryo right now.

Sorry for starting this topic already, I just wanted to get into a positive mood after learning about Baruto's knee injury. I am looking forward to Asashosakari's promotion/demotion tables!

[Morty 1,505]

Would eight wins be enough to put Myogiryu stright to sekiwake or would he need more than that? And theoretically would they have only one sekiwake if no-one made the grade?

[krindel 675]

AFAIK there need to be two sekiwake, even if its a big stretch to promote someone. So Myogiryu could become Sekiwake with an 8-7, although in that case it is possible that someone from lower down would overtake him (like Aoiyama if he manages to get a good double-digits score).

Of course that's all in theory, since Myo needs to follow through his first good week with a good second week too, and I should point out that he'll be facing some experienced rikishi that really need some wins in the next days, so I hope he is not stargazing yet :-).

Edit: I even found a few interesting banzuke cases like this one, where Kitanofuji ended up Sekiwake with a 9-6 from M5, so even Shohozan still has hopes ;-)

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=196405

Edited May 19, 2013 by krindel

[Tikozan 4]

  On 19/05/2013 at 10:57, Morty said:

Would eight wins be enough to put Myogiryu stright to sekiwake or would he need more than that? And theoretically would they have only one sekiwake if no-one made the grade?

Why not? If no other is in a better position for promotion.

[Washuyama 641]

Kotooshu will fill the 2nd Sekiwake slot...

[kuroimori 1,634]

  On 19/05/2013 at 12:13, Washuyama said:

Kotooshu will fill the 2nd Sekiwake slot...

Dang! I overlooked Osh completely (how come...)

Well, he should be able to handle Kitataiki tomorrow and with losses to the 2 Ozeki & 2 Yoks he simply HAS TO finish 8-7.

[botev1921 33]

Aoiyama might not even get to 8, never mind double digit wins. He showed against Ama he does not have a clear strategy or idea what to do and facing Hakuho tomorrow means 5-4. Baring any schedule advantages, I can't see him winning three with that attitude!

[ronnie 221]

You know, it's not entirely impossible that Tochiozan will get his 8.

[kuroimori 1,634]

Still many candidates knocking on Juryo's door.

In case we see the final Juryo results leveling out to plenty of 6-9 wins (like Haru 2013), it will be a tough job to put together the Juryo banzuke for July.

So far only Chiyoo seems to have an impossible task as he can only afford one more loss in his remaing 5 bouts.

Shuban-sen will be very interesting to watch!

Tomorrow might already bring some indication with Endo's visit to Juryo and Osunaarashi looking to defend his unblemished record and chance for a direct promotion to Juryo.

Edited May 21, 2013 by kuroimori

[Asashosakari 19,676]

(Reminder: Both juryo and makushita will be shortchanged by one promotion slot this basho.)

I agree with kuroimori that we're having an interesting race for the sanyaku slots for once, so let's start with that. 3 slots opening up is the most likely outcome indeed, barring a Kotooshu demotion or Tochiozan streaking to 6 straight wins. (Well, he could stay with 7-8, I guess.) Goeido really shouldn't be in any danger, at 5-5 he's done with the sanyaku and won't have to face Myogiryu.

Myogiryu is also the only halfway serious contender for a promotion, so we could be seeing a real snails' race for the other available slot(s). I'm going to list everybody who's not completely unfathomable for now, although just about all of them should need a 4-1 or even 5-0 to put themselves into contention, the only exception being Tokitenku. (And if I squint hard enough, also Shohozan. Hey, maybe Tochiozan could stay with 6-9, too...)

O2 Kotooshu 6-4

5-5 Goeido S Baruto 3-5-2 (x)

3-7 Tochiozan K Okinoumi 1-9 (x)

7-3 Myogiryu M1 Aminishiki 3-7

M2

M3 Aran 4-6

5-5 Aoiyama M4 Toyonoshima 5-5

6-4 Shohozan M5 Takayasu 5-5

5-5 Yoshikaze M6 Takekaze 5-5

6-4 Fujiazuma M7

8-2 Tokitenku M8

Exactly the opposite situation prevails between makuuchi and juryo. Sue me, I still think this is the least impressive juryo lineup in quite a while, but somehow those guys are creating the most suspenseful yusho race in a long time, and two of the involved rikishi have already done enough by the numbers to merit a return to the top division. Nevertheless, I'm going to be conservative with my predictions here as it looks quite likely that we'll be ending up with more promotion contenders than definite demotions. For now that means not declaring Shotenro and Daido safe just yet, nor handing Tamaasuka and Kotoyuki their tickets to makuuchi. (One more win really should be sealing the promotion though, if needed they'll drop down somebody with a Daido-style record that's close enough to demotable.)

The chances of Oiwato, Tenkaiho and Kagamio are little more than theoretical, but I'll keep them listed until they're out by the numbers as well. Tokushoryu probably needs a 12-3, I suspect, one more win than the mathematical target. On the makuuchi side only lowest-ranked Daikiho is already toast, with the two rikishi right above him in the greatest danger of following suit. Kyokushuho will also open up a slot if he doesn't return to the basho.

M7 Jokoryu 2-8 (1)

M8 Sadanofuji 2-8 (2)

...

(?) 5-5 Shotenro M11

(2) 4-6 Wakanosato M12 Kyokushuho 5-5 (1)

(?) 6-4 Daido M13 Masunoyama 5-5 (1)

(2) 5-5 Kaisei M14 Chiyootori 5-5 (2)

(2) 5-5 Chiyonokuni M15 Homarefuji 3-7 (4)

(3) 5-5 Azumaryu M16 Daikiho 1-9 (x)

(1) 7-3 Tamawashi J1 Asahisho 3-7 (5)

(4) 5-5 Takanoiwa J2 Tamaasuka 9-1 (?)

(5) 4-6 Oiwato J3 Kotoyuki 9-1 (?)

J4

J5

(2) 9-1 Tokushoryu J6 Tenkaiho 6-4 (5)

...

J13 Kagamio 9-1 (5)

Lower juryo doesn't even have its first departure yet, but already one claimant in Seiro who secured his kachikoshi today. His vanquished opponent Chiyoo finds himself in the biggest spot of trouble, with Tagonoura-oyakata Kimurayama and Tanzo the other ones who need to win the majority of their remaining five bouts. That's not a whole lot of rikishi in strong danger of demotion, and since there's really no such thing as an overdemotion out of juryo these days, things could get rather tricky here as the high makushita ranks have performed pretty well so far and there's of course the Osunaarashi wildcard as well.

(2) 2-8 Sagatsukasa J7

J8 Tanzo 2-8 (3)

(2) 3-7 Wakakoyu J9

(1) 5-5 Tokushinho J10 Takanoyama 5-5 (1)

(1) 5-5 Kizenryu J11 Kimurayama 3-7 (3)

(2) 5-5 Kitaharima J12 Chiyoarashi 6-4 (1)

(2) 5-5 Akiseyama J13

(4) 4-6 Chiyoo J14 Homasho 6-4 (2)

(o) 4-2 Seiro Ms1 Yoshiazuma 3-2

2-3 Sakigake Ms2 Kotomisen 3-2

3-2 Endo Ms3

2-3 Shoho Ms4 Arawashi 2-3

4-1 Chiyomaru Ms5

Ms6

5-0 Osunaarashi Ms7

Kyokushuho joining Baruto on the sidelines means there's no strict need to send makushita rikishi up into juryo now, but the torikumi crew has made the sensible decision to schedule two crossover bouts for tomorrow anyway, with Endo taking on Akiseyama and Yoshiazuma facing Kimurayama. I think that's already a must-win bout for Endo as a 4-3 is unlikely to cut it from his rank this basho. (By the same token Shoho and Arawashi probably aren't really in the promotion race anymore.)

Edited May 21, 2013 by Asashosakari

[ryafuji 815]

  On 19/05/2013 at 10:57, Morty said:

And theoretically would they have only one sekiwake if no-one made the grade?

No. There must always be at least two sekiwake (and two komusubi). They will always find someone to "make the grade" - banzuke luck can mean an 8-7 from halfway down the maegashira ranks can get you a sanyaku spot if there are no other candidates.

[Asojima 2,874]

  On 21/05/2013 at 18:30, ryafuji said:

There must always be at least two sekiwake (and two komusubi). ....

.... and two Ozeki, one or more of whom may be a yokozuna.

[kuroimori 1,634]

Osunaarashi is now just one win away from sekitorihood and of course th makushita yusho - really impressive!

[yorikiried by fate 2,029]

So the question remains: Can the storm breeze through the taiga?

[Asashosakari 19,676]

Just like yesterday the two M1's have opposite records, but now it means Myogiryu is assured a return to sanyaku (directly sekiwake if Kotooshu doesn't get demoted) and Aminishiki is out of the running. Tochiozan keeps hanging in there to perhaps make things a little easier on the banzuke makers.

O2 Kotooshu 6-5

5-6 Goeido S Baruto 3-5-3 (x)

4-7 Tochiozan K Okinoumi 1-10 (x)

(o) 8-3 Myogiryu M1 Aminishiki 3-8 (x)

M2

M3 Aran 4-7

5-6 Aoiyama M4 Toyonoshima 6-5

6-5 Shohozan M5 Takayasu 6-5

6-5 Yoshikaze M6 Takekaze 6-5

6-5 Fujiazuma M7

8-3 Tokitenku M8

The situation in lower makuuchi sees a couple more rikishi in sorta-safe territory now after Jokoryu and Masunoyama picked up their last by-the-numbers win, while Shotenro and Daido remained in limbo with losses. Homarefuji and Azumaryu also lost and are really up the creek now; Homarefuji may even be a goner already, given the strength of the candidates from juryo. Kaisei and Chiyootori were on the Day 11 losing side as well and need to win 2 out of 4. Sadanofuji, Wakanosato and Chiyonokuni won and are approaching safe ground.

On the juryo side Tamawashi is the first to secure his promotion with win #8, while Tamaasuka and Kotoyuki both lost in intra-leading-quartet matchups. Takanoiwa and Oiwato won to keep slim and tiny promotion hopes alive (the latter eliminating Tenkaiho from the picture), but juryo-hitto Asahittohisho fell to MK and is out now.

M7 Jokoryu 3-8 (?)

M8 Sadanofuji 3-8 (1)

...

(?) 5-6 Shotenro M11

(1) 5-6 Wakanosato M12 Kyokushuho 5-5-1 (1)

(?) 6-5 Daido M13 Masunoyama 6-5 (?)

(2) 5-6 Kaisei M14 Chiyootori 5-6 (2)

(1) 6-5 Chiyonokuni M15 Homarefuji 3-8 (4)

(3) 5-6 Azumaryu M16 Daikiho 1-10 (x)

(o) 8-3 Tamawashi J1 Asahisho 3-8 (x)

(3) 6-5 Takanoiwa J2 Tamaasuka 9-2 (?)

(4) 5-6 Oiwato J3 Kotoyuki 9-2 (?)

J4

J5

(1) 10-1 Tokushoryu J6 Tenkaiho 6-5 (x)

...

J13 Kagamio 10-1 (4)

For much of the situation between juryo and makushita, Doitsuyama already has you covered today. I'll have to disagree slightly with the notion that there's no shortage of candidates for demotion, as more than half of them are very close to safety. Tanzo and Kimurayama both did lose and are in pretty big trouble now, along with Chiyoo who won but was already one win further behind. Down in makushita Sakigake won the MK-avoidance bout against Shoho to keep himself in contention. Chiyomaru lost and probably won't figure into the promotion race now.

(2) 2-9 Sagatsukasa J7

J8 Tanzo 2-9 (3)

(1) 4-7 Wakakoyu J9

(1) 5-6 Tokushinho J10 Takanoyama 5-6 (1)

(1) 5-6 Kizenryu J11 Kimurayama 3-8 (3)

(1) 6-5 Kitaharima J12 Chiyoarashi 6-5 (1)

(2) 5-6 Akiseyama J13

(3) 5-6 Chiyoo J14 Homasho 7-4 (1)

(o) 4-2 Seiro Ms1 Yoshiazuma 4-2

3-3 Sakigake Ms2 Kotomisen 3-3

4-2 Endo Ms3

(x) 2-4 Shoho Ms4 Arawashi 2-3

4-2 Chiyomaru Ms5

Ms6

6-0 Osunaarashi Ms7

No juryo-makushita crossover bouts tomorrow, keeping available as many options as possible for the final three days. They do make an early start into the high-motivation "yusho/promotion contender vs. demotion candidate" matchups, however (normally just a Day 14/15 specialty), with Tamaasuka meeting Sagatsukasa, Takanoiwa facing Tanzo and Kotoyuki going against Kimurayama. As always I highly approve of this type of scheduling. :-) In non-mixed bouts the two yusho leaders Tokushoryu and Kagamio also face off, as do the two potential demotees Akiseyama and Chiyoo. Not much happening in makushita, the only top 5 rikishi in action will be Arawashi.

As for Osunaarashi's final opponent, my gut feeling right now points to Yoshiazuma, patterned after Kyushu 2008 where 6-0 Ms10e Kotokuni was scheduled against 5-1 Ms1w Fukuoka (now Okinoumi), also with an extreme shortage of open slots (ultimately causing Fukuoka to stay in makushita in one of the most unlucky outcomes ever). Yoshiazuma should be a lock for promotion slot #2 absent Boody's claim - Sakigake and Kotomisen can't pass him, and Endo should be behind even with a 5-2 - so having him try to "defend" that claim and possibly eliminate Osunaarashi from the race altogether would have a certain elegance to it.

However, it probably depends somewhat on tomorrow's juryo results; lots of losses by the 5 most troubled juryo rikishi may remove the need to play off Osunaarashi and Yoshiazuma (or another promotion contender) directly and could lead to Osunaarashi facing a juryo opponent instead (say, Chiyoo at 5-7). I'd be extremely surprised to see him scheduled against Taiga in any case.

(Bonus expectation for Taiga's opponent: Either a 5-1 rikishi in the Ms10's, which is the usual choice - I'd go for the winner of Fujimoto-Nishikigi, although others including Wakamisho are also possible - or maybe severely under-ranked Sasanoyama or Tosayutaka. Usually the 5-1's in the lower reaches of the division are a pretty blah selection of rikishi and/or already met the 6-0 guy, so it's fortunate to have these two available for potential clean-up duty.)

Edited May 22, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Nabuko 11]

How many rikishi will be in Makuuchi next time? 42 or 43?

[Asashosakari 19,676]

  On 23/05/2013 at 04:59, Nabuko said:

How many rikishi will be in Makuuchi next time? 42 or 43?

The capacity is limited to 42 by rule, and for what it's worth I haven't seen any statement that they're going to make an exception.

[Koorifuu 1,020]

I'd like to ask this to a more experiencied follower, in particular Asashosakari:
That Akiseyama v Osunaarashi matchup for tomorrow gives a certain feel of being direct elimination. How possible is that? Who wins will be in Juryo, who loses will be in makushita, whatever Akiseyama's result on senshuraku is. A 7-8 at J13 could linger between J14 and Ms1 depending on the others, namely Osunaarashi being 7-0 or 6-1. Is that what they are planning?

[Asashosakari 19,676]

Nothing much new in the race for sanyaku. Tochiozan continues his darnedest to avoid demotion, and nobody's really making a push for the second slot. Aran's chances have gone bust with the MK-clinching 8th loss, and Aoiyama and Fujiazuma really should be out now as well, but the way things are going even a 9-6 promotion from M7 wouldn't shock me (especially if Tochiozan falls), so I'm keeping them listed for now.

O2 Kotooshu 7-5

6-6 Goeido S Baruto 3-5-4 (x)

5-7 Tochiozan K Okinoumi 2-10 (x)

(o) 9-3 Myogiryu M1

M2

M3 Aran 4-8 (x)

5-7 Aoiyama M4 Toyonoshima 6-6

6-6 Shohozan M5 Takayasu 7-5

6-6 Yoshikaze M6 Takekaze 7-5

6-6 Fujiazuma M7

8-4 Tokitenku M8

All four lower maegashira who are not-quite-safe lost today, and they're now joined in sumo purgatory by Sadanofuji and Chiyonokuni. Kaisei, Azumaryu and Homarefuji also improved their records.

Kotoyuki should really have enough wins to force a promotion now, so with Sokokurai that would be three spots claimed. Tamaasuka and Takanoiwa failed to beat their demotion-threatened opponents and Kagamio won the yusho lead decider against Tokushoryu, putting a damper on the latter's promotion hopes. Oiwato continues to hang in there, now with four straight wins.

M7 Jokoryu 3-9 (?)

M8 Sadanofuji 4-8 (?)

...

(?) 5-7 Shotenro M11

(1) 5-7 Wakanosato M12 Kyokushuho 5-5-2 (1)

(?) 6-6 Daido M13 Masunoyama 6-6 (?)

(1) 6-6 Kaisei M14 Chiyootori 5-7 (2)

(?) 7-5 Chiyonokuni M15 Homarefuji 4-8 (3)

(2) 6-6 Azumaryu M16 Daikiho 1-11 (x)

(o) 9-3 Tamawashi J1

(3) 6-6 Takanoiwa J2 Tamaasuka 9-3 (?)

(3) 6-6 Oiwato J3 Kotoyuki 10-2 (o)

J4

J5

(1) 10-2 Tokushoryu J6

...

J13 Kagamio 11-1 (3)

Lots of matchups among the struggling maegashira tomorrow with Chiyonokuni-Azumaryu, Chiyootori-Masunoyama, Wakanosato-Kaisei, Sadanofuji-Jokoryu and Shotenro-Daido; the last two of these matches will finally remove some names from the sprawling table above. Only Homarefuji gets an opponent from elsewhere in Oiwato.

Down in lower juryo the clear-out has already started as Wakakoyu, Tokushinho, Takanoyama and Homasho all moved to safety today. Sagatsukasa and Tanzo (against opponents contending for a makuuchi promotion) were also victorious, as was Chiyoo in the direct matchup with Akiseyama. The most crucial loss of the day was Kimurayama's one-sided affair against Kotoyuki, leaving him as the only rikishi who can't afford to drop a single bout now.

(1) 3-9 Sagatsukasa J7

J8 Tanzo 3-9 (2)

(o) 5-7 Wakakoyu J9

(o) 6-6 Tokushinho J10 Takanoyama 6-6 (o)

(1) 5-7 Kizenryu J11 Kimurayama 3-9 (3)

(1) 6-6 Kitaharima J12 Chiyoarashi 6-6 (1)

(2) 5-7 Akiseyama J13

(2) 6-6 Chiyoo J14 Homasho 8-4 (o)

(o) 4-2 Seiro Ms1 Yoshiazuma 4-2

3-3 Sakigake Ms2 Kotomisen 3-3

4-2 Endo Ms3

Ms4 Arawashi 3-3

4-2 Chiyomaru Ms5

Ms6

6-0 Osunaarashi Ms7

The mashup of differently-destined juryo rikishi continues on Day 13 with Tamawashi-Kitaharima, Takanoiwa-Sagatsukasa, Kotoyuki-Chiyoo and Tokushoryu-Kimurayama. These matchups are joined by an actual yusho contenders' match between Kagamio and Tamaasuka, an outright demotion battle between Chiyoarashi and Tanzo, and a pair of crossover bouts: Osunaarashi's potential yusho and promotion clincher against Akiseyama, and Sakigake's KK decider against Kizenryu.

The only other promotion zone rikishi in action is Arawashi who's very unlikely to figure into the actual promotion race even with a win. From what I can tell the Day 14/15 crossover bouts will require the participation of 3-3 Kotomisen and three of the four 4-2's. There are quite a few scenarios here (even something outlandish like playing off Yoshiazuma and Endo against each other instead of against juryo opponents) so I'm not fully sure who's going to go up for juryo bouts - they could decide to skip Seiro since he's already near-guaranteed to be promoted, or they might skip Chiyomaru since he's too low to really challenge for the promotion. In any case, whoever gets to stay in makushita for his final bout should be facing Ms6e Kotokuni.

Edited May 24, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,676]

  On 23/05/2013 at 17:39, Koorifuu said:

I'd like to ask this to a more experiencied follower, in particular Asashosakari:

That Akiseyama v Osunaarashi matchup for tomorrow gives a certain feel of being direct elimination. How possible is that? Who wins will be in Juryo, who loses will be in makushita, whatever Akiseyama's result on senshuraku is. A 7-8 at J13 could linger between J14 and Ms1 depending on the others, namely Osunaarashi being 7-0 or 6-1. Is that what they are planning?

The history of the last 10+ years says that a 7-8 from J13 will get to stay in juryo, so it's not really an elimination bout I would say - I think they've just picked who they believe is the biggest challenge for Osunaarashi out of Kimurayama/Akiseyama/Chiyoo. They've made the right call in my opinion, although I think Boody's still the favourite, just by a smaller margin than he would be against the other two.

What will most likely happen if Akiseyama loses the match is a gauntlet of up to two more makushita opponents for the final days, until he either loses his 9th or saves himself at 7-8.

[yorikiried by fate 2,029]

Given the current sanyaku free for the taking situation, Yoshikaze must curse the matta/doesn't matta thing that went on in his bout against Gagamaru. Seems like Takayasu can already start to practice finding the right spot on the banzuke with his finger.

Edit: Ooops, wrong thread. Should have been in the promotion/demotion discussion.

Edited May 24, 2013 by Jakusotsu
moved

[Koorifuu 1,020]

As much as I am a Takayasu fan (no s***) I don't think it's a deserved promotion to sanyaku. If he does, hopefully he can hold his own better than he did as a joijin.

Everyone seemed to disregard the possibility of Goeido going MK but it seems each day a bigger possibility. (Crazy 0-7 H2H with Takayasu though)

And I hereby suggest a one-time sumo game for next time around: Guess Boody's mawashi color.

Edited May 24, 2013 by Koorifuu

[Jakusotsu 6,050]

  On 24/05/2013 at 13:52, Koorifuu said:

Guess Boody's mawashi color.

Sand, of course.

[Doitsuyama 1,192]

Well his first name is Kintaro, so it should be gold/sand.

[ArchangelEST 13]

Even if Kisenosato loses the next two matches, he can still be technically heading for a Yokozuna promotion, yes? If he follows up with a Yusho or a 14-1 jun-Yusho, it could happen right?