How many yusho will Hakuho win?

[Asashosakari 19,306]

An obvious companion piece to this thread. Note: The new option to publicly display all entered votes is in effect for this poll. Feel free to still leave comments though, otherwise it gets a bit boring. :-)

For those not having the numbers immediately at hand: The two leaders are Taiho with 32 and Chiyonofuji with 31, hence the finely grained options from 30 to 33 yusho in the poll.

[Asashosakari 19,306]

I voted for 32; equalling Taiho's record would have a certain poetic charm.

[Kintamayama 45,086]

31.

[shumitto 418]

30

[kuroimori 1,634]

33 overtake and exit

[Finngall 35]

30. If left to his own devices he would overtake Taiho easily, but that simply won't be allowed.

[Jejima 1,384]

36+ - Just so that I can say that I told you so, should it come to pass. But I think he'll beat Taiho's record, as he only needs 3 or 4 yusho a year (which currently he is more than capable of doing) up until he turns 30, to do so. 36 might be a stretch too far - but it is certainly within the realm of possibility, methinks.

[Borislav 4]

36+ or 3 more years with 4 yushos in each. I don't see a problem for him to fight until 32-33 years of age.

[ryafuji 814]

36+ or 3 more years with 4 yushos in each. I don't see a problem for him to fight until 32-33 years of age.

Disagree completely. I don't see him fighting much beyond 30 or 31 years old and four yusho a year is very optimistic - he only won two last year after all. I predict he will fall a couple short and finish with 30.

[krindel 671]

I voted for the record, 33, and then an Akebono style intai with yusho in hand.

Beating Kisenosato this basho and not letting him have the long awaited Japanese Yusho speaks loads for his intentions, at the very least. Seems to me that barring an injury, he will fight to get to the record, and I think he has the time and power to do it. I don't know if he can make it, or if the Kyokai will have objections, but I think he has decided that he is going for it, and I wish him all the luck in getting there.

Nagoya will tell us a lot. If he goes and manages another 15-0, then he has definitely made up his mind that he'll give it his best to get Taiho's record, and possibly have another go at Futabayama's record...

[Tsubame 361]

29 and no yusho more.

His physicaly decline is not yet (clear) visibly, but in one year, he will have problems to "stand his ground" as yokozuna. I guess he will be longer in service as yokozuna, but no longer as a serious contender for yushos.

Edit: And I agree in one point with krindel. I also see a "Akebono"-style-intai.

Edited May 29, 2013 by Tsubame

[yorikiried by fate 2,027]

When Hakuho got the tsuna, I predicted that he will be a upper-middle-weight Yokozuna with 15-20 career yusho. That turned out to be fantastically wrong. (Then again, at that time it was not clear yet that the Asashoryu situation would escalate to that degree.) Anyway, I now think that at current form and shape, Hakuho could easily win eleven out of the next twelve. Nevertheless, I predict that he will mysteriously stay one short of Taiho. Ergo 31.

Edited May 29, 2013 by yorikiried by fate

[Vikanohara 171]

I went for the 36+ option. I think he'll have won at least 7 more by the end of 2014, 3 the year after. 25+10 = 35. By then he will still only be 30 years old, so one more Yusho in 2016 to nail it. If not for that cancelled basho of Haru 2011, he should already have been at 26.

2006 : 1 Yusho (newly promoted to Ozeki), 3 Jun-Yusho, 1x 8-7 and 1 abscence

2007 : 4 Yusho (1 zensho), 1x 11-4 (his first as a Yokozuna), 1x 10-5 (right after that abscence)

2008 : 4 Yusho (1 zensho), 2 Jun-Yusho (losing to Asashoryu & Kotooshu) of which 1x 11-4

2009 : 3 Yusho (2 zensho), 3 Jun-Yusho (all three by 14-1, two going to Asashoryu, one to Harumafuji)

2010 : 5 Yusho (4 zensho), 1 Jun-Yusho (Asashoryu's last)

2011 : 4 Yusho (0 zensho), 1 Jun-Yusho (Harumafuji's 2nd)

2012 : 2 Yusho (0 zensho), 3 Jun-Yusho (one going to Baruto, two to Harumafuji), 1x 10-5 (the one won by Kyokutenho)

2013 : 2 Yusho (2 zensho), 1 Jun-Yusho (the 5th for Harumafuji)

Conclusions :

- only one abscence during his career so far

- as a Yokozuna, Hakuho only finished 3x below 12-3 : twice 11-4 in his first full year as a Yokozuna and that 10-5 one year ago

- even with Asashoryu still around, he managed to win 12 Yusho, though in 6 of them Asa wasn't there or didn't make it to the end

- right after Asashoryu was gone, Hakuho was completely dominating, winning 7 Yusho in a row, of which the first 4 by 15-0

- 2012/2013 we saw a strong Harumafuji period, winning 3 zensho Yusho in 4 basho, Natsu 2012 was a letdown for both of them

- now that Harumafuji is slipping a bit & Baruto is no contender anymore, Hakuho is dominating once again

- and okay, there's also Kisenosato, but he's hardly younger and he only managed his second Jun-Yusho, even Kakuryu has more

So I see him dominating like he did right after Asashoryu had to leave the scene until the end of 2014. In 2015 he'll still be a great contender. Only by 2016 his reign will come to an end.

[Naganoyama 5,905]

I think he will get 35.

[aderechelsea 125]

barring injuries (yes .. we can only speculate on this matter) i think the will at least be tied with Taiho when his career is closer to the end. Maybe a yusho more would be like a statement in the direction of "the student becomes better than the master".

I would bet the farm though that (again ... barring injuries) he would love to overtake Kokonoe oyakata in the yusho list.

personally i would be happy with 33. He looks like he would deserve all of them. And the fact that he is trying new stuff with his fighting style or his dietary habits makes he think he is actually planning his longevity as a Yokozuna ...

[ryafuji 814]

Those predicting 36+ yusho should perhaps look at the examples of Kitanoumi (as Asashosakari has already mentioned) and Takanohana. KItanoumi reached 22 yusho at the age of 28 without missing a single bout in his career and yet after his first ever withdrawal from a tournament in November 1981 had numerous more withdrawals and won only two more yusho after that. Takanohana raced to 15 yusho at the age of just 24 without missing a single bout through injury and then 20 by age 26 after withdrawing from a couple of basho, but then won only two more in the last four and and a half years of his career. I'm not saying that Hakuho definitely won't do it but it's going to get more and more difficult the closer he gets as the years of wear and tear build up, as Chiyonofuji discovered. The fact that Taiho's record has stood for over 40 years just emphasizes what a marvelous achievement it was.

Edited May 29, 2013 by ryafuji

[aderechelsea 125]

but keep in mind that Hakuho is not carrying around the weight that Kitanoumi was and Taka was fighting monsters in the top of the ranks (Musashi/Ake).

and the medicine science has improved since then .... the "keiko science" too.

and this is an uber-speculative topic after all ....

[Asashosakari 19,306]

... and Taka was fighting monsters in the top of the ranks (Musashi/Ake).

Though they're just two out of 15 opponents. The overall "opponent impact" is probably just as high for Hakuho as it was for Takanohana, given that the average makuuchi weight is now back in the same territory. And while Hakuho sometimes looks like he can afford to be in cruise control mode against some lower-ranked opponents, Taka's schedules were even more favourable in that regard thanks to all the other Futagoyama rikishi he didn't have to face.

Edited May 29, 2013 by Asashosakari

[krindel 671]

Love all the speculation :-). Injuries are a wildcard, of course, so far he has managed to avoid it and I sincerely hope that this state of affairs continues.

I do think however that there is very little chance of him getting more than the 33rd, I sincerely believe that if the day comes that he bests Taiho, he will hand in his intai papers to leave on his own terms.

[Benevolance 2,501]

I'm voting 33, as well. He's just so much better than the rest of the competition, and has demonstrated that he can go 15-0 in a tournament on a regular basis, which is quickly becoming the benchmark for the yuusho. But I can't see him wanting to fight on after he's got the record. He'll hang up the tsuna and then sleep easy on his giant horde of cash.

[Manekineko 200]

I actually doubt he will retire with a yusho. It doesn't seem to be the Japanese way, and Hakuho really tries to be as Japanese/perfect as possible.

[Bugman 384]

I'm going for 36+

It's very optimistic but i think he may be the greatest Yokozuna i'l ever see

[ScreechingOwl 343]

I voted for the record, 33, and then an Akebono style intai with yusho in hand.

Beating Kisenosato this basho and not letting him have the long awaited Japanese Yusho speaks loads for his intentions, at the very least. Seems to me that barring an injury, he will fight to get to the record, and I think he has the time and power to do it. I don't know if he can make it, or if the Kyokai will have objections, but I think he has decided that he is going for it, and I wish him all the luck in getting there.

Nagoya will tell us a lot. If he goes and manages another 15-0, then he has definitely made up his mind that he'll give it his best to get Taiho's record, and possibly have another go at Futabayama's record...

Even a few basho ago I would have predicted Hakuho was going to end up short of 32. But I think krindel makes a keen point about Hakuho and his recent actions. In Haru he breaks the zensho-yusho record (after 14 basho with at least one defeat) and in Hatsu he does not ease up on Kisenosato and permit a Japanese rikishi in position to yusho do so.

Hakuho's a very different rikishi than Asashoryu was. Asashoryu would never have set zensho-yusho records, not because he wasn't talented enough, but because he just didn't give a damn. He was more like a street fighter, focused on winning yusho, and the odd loss never troubled him. In fact, it wasn't worth the effort -- doing more keiko, focusing more, or drinking less -- to avoid it. I think if Asashoryu had been pushed more by stronger competition he could have, but he knew he was so superior he didn't have to worry about such pedestrian concerns.

Hakuho is much more detail oriented. That said, a lot can go wrong for him. Hakuho's been very fortunate to be lightly impacted by injuries thus far. Obviously that could change at any time, especially as he moves toward 30. He could also decide to pull up short, although the signs this year seem to indicate otherwise. And someone could come along and actually be better, although I see no one in the present makuuchi who will be better than Hakuho in the next three years.

I will note though, that even though Hakuho is clearly the best, he doesn't seem to me to be as overpowering as he was in 2010. I remember one match in 2010 when his opponent was falling down and Hakuho actually propped him up so he could through him down. This year Hakuho would just push him down. I see a lot more "opportunistic" sumo from Hakuho now. I don't mean that as a criticism, just a reflection that Hakuho 2010 would beat Hakuho 2013.

I hope he breaks the record. After he retires old yokozuna Kisenosato (I still see him becoming one in a manner similar to Asahifuji) and young turks like Endo, Osunaarashi and whoever, can take over. We should enjoy this halcyon time while it last, because as we discovered with Asashoryu, it can literally end overnight and with almost no notice.

[sekihiryu 51]

34-35 I reckon. He's still going strong. Only Harumafuji seems to consistently trouble him and aside from Kisenosato, I don't see a bona fide contender for quite some time. I just wish we could have had 2-3 years longer than we did of the Hak-Asa rivalry. We really missed out on that.

[Masumasumasu 902]

30.