Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Aki 2013

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Hello! Welcome as always to the game that ruthlessly ignores any rikishi who has had a recent negative performance. We're still playing with a pretty short ballot and here it is:

1. Hakuho 39 [score?]

2. Kisenosato 16 [score?]

3. Harumafuji 15 [score?]

4. Kakuryu 15 [score?]

5. Osunaarashi 8*

6. Kotoshogiku 5 [score?]

7. Terunofuji 5

8. Dewahayate 5

9. Masutoo 5

10. Tomisakae 5

11. Seiro 4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

- For yokozuna, ozeki and sekiwake: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.

- For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

First tie-breaker: From among those 11 guys up there and the further 6 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 17. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Yokozuna, ozeki and sekiwake count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 10 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hakuho.

Penultimate tie-breaker, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number.

Final tie-breaker, should two or more players with identical ballots have entered identical tie-breaker guesses as well or be at the same distance from opposite sides: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

Edited September 12, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Asojima 2,874]

1. Hakuho 13
2. Kisenosato 10
3. Harumafuji 13
4. Kakuryu 9
5. Osunaarashi Y
6. Kotoshogiku 9
7. Terunofuji Y
8. Dewahayate N
9. Masutoo N
10. Tomisakae Y
11. Seiro N :-(

And we will be playing with 11 again in Kyushu.

[Profomisakari 857]

1. Hakuho 13

2. Kisenosato 12

3. Harumafuji 11

4. Kakuryu 11

5. Osunaarashi y

6. Kotoshogiku 10

7. Terunofuji y

8. Dewahayate n

9. Masutoo y

10. Tomisakae n

11. Seiro y

TB: 12

Profomisakari

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

Hakuho 13

Kisenosato 11

Harumafuji 11

Kakuryu 9

Osunaarashi Y

Kotoshogiku 8

Terunofuji Y

Dewahayate N

Masutoo Y

Tomisakae Y

Seiro Y

TB: 11

Pandaazuma

[Jejima 1,385]

1. Hakuho 14
2. Kisenosato 10
3. Harumafuji 11
4. Kakuryu 9
5. Osunaarashi KK
6. Kotoshogiku 9
7. Terunofuji KK
8. Dewahayate MK
9. Masutoo KK
10. Tomisakae MK
11. Seiro KK

TB: [12]

[Fay 1,677]

1. Hakuho 14
2. Kisenosato 10
3. Harumafuji 11
4. Kakuryu 12
5. Osunaarashi Y
6. Kotoshogiku 11
7. Terunofuji Y
8. Dewahayate y
9. Masutoo N
10. Tomisakae n
11. Seiro Y

12

[Vikanohara 171]

13 1. Hakuho

11 2. Kisenosato

10 3. Harumafuji

09 4. Kakuryu

KK 5. Osunaarashi

10 6. Kotoshogiku

KK 7. Terunofuji

mk 8. Dewahayate

KK 9. Masutoo

mk 10. Tomisakae

KK 11. Seiro

11 as TB

[chishafuwaku 476]

1. Hakuho 13
2. Kisenosato 14
3. Harumafuji 11
4. Kakuryu 10
5. Osunaarashi KK
6. Kotoshogiku 8
7. Terunofuji KK
8. Dewahayate KK
9. Masutoo KK
10. Tomisakae MK
11. Seiro KK

TB 14

[Holleshoryu 16]

Hakuho 14

Kisenosato 11

Harumafuji 10

Kakuryu 9

Osunaarashi KK

Kotoshogiku 9

Terunofuji KK

Dewahayate MK

Masutoo KK

Tomisakae KK

Seiro KK

TB: 14

[Mmikasazuma 12]

1. Hakuho 13
2. Kisenosato 12
3. Harumafuji 14
4. Kakuryu 10
5. Osunaarashi KK
6. Kotoshogiku 9
7. Terunofuji MK
8. Dewahayate MK
9. Masutoo MK
10. Tomisakae KK
11. Seiro KK

TB 11

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Not the greatest turnout this basho, oh well...

14 Hakuho

11 Kisenosato

11 Harumafuji

10 Kakuryu

+ Osunaarashi

9 Kotoshogiku

+ Terunofuji

- Dewahayate

- Masutoo

+ Tomisakae

+ Seiro

TB 11

[kuroimori 1,634]

Hakuho 13-2

Kisenosato 10-5

Harumafuji 11-4

Kakuryu 10-5

Osunaarashi KK

Kotoshogiku 9-6

Terunofuji KK

Dewahayate MK

Masutoo KK

Tomisakae MK

Seiro KK

TB: 13

[Achiyama 1,245]

My picks:

1. Hakuho 13

2. Kisenosato 10

3. Harumafuji 12
4. Kakuryu 10
5. Osunaarashi KK
6. Kotoshogiku 9
7. Terunofuji KK
8. Dewahayate MK
9. Masutoo KK
10. Tomisakae MK
11. Seiro KK

TB: 11

[ryafuji 814]

Hakuho 14

Kisenosato 12

Harumafuji 13

Kakuryu 9

Osunaarashi KK

Kotoshogiku 10

Terunofuji KK

Dewahayate KK

Masutoo MK

Tomisakae MK

Seiro KK

TB: 12

[Tsubame 361]

Almost forget, I hope it is not too late... :(

1. Hakuho 12-3
2. Kisenosato 12-3
3. Harumafuji 15-0
4. Kakuryu 11-4
5. Osunaarashi 12-3
6. Kotoshogiku 13-2
7. Terunofuji yes
8. Dewahayate no
9. Masutoo yes
10. Tomisakae no
11. Seiro yes

TB: 11

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Sorry about the delay...after a late-night flood of entries I'm happy to report we're in our usual range of 14 participants. (Sign of approval...)

Player	Haku	Kise	Haru	Kaku	Osuna	Giku	Teru	Dewa	Masu	Tomi	Seiro	TB	Cons
Asojima	- (13-2)	- (10-5)	+ (13-2)	- (9-6)	+	- (9-6)	+	-	-	+	-	11	1.69
Profomisakari	- (13-2)	+ (12-3)	- (11-4)	+ (11-4)	+	+ (10-5)	+	-	+	-	+	12	1.26
Pandaazuma	- (13-2)	- (11-4)	- (11-4)	- (9-6)	+	- (8-7)	+	-	+	+	+	11	1.20
Jejima	+ (14-1)	- (10-5)	- (11-4)	- (9-6)	+	- (9-6)	+	-	+	-	+	12	1.20
Fay	+ (14-1)	- (10-5)	- (11-4)	+ (12-3)	+	+ (11-4)	+	+	-	-	+	12	1.56
Vikanohara	- (13-2)	- (11-4)	- (10-5)	- (9-6)	+	+ (10-5)	+	-	+	-	+	11	1.20
chishafuwaku	- (13-2)	+ (14-1)	- (11-4)	+ (10-5)	+	- (8-7)	+	+	+	-	+	14	1.36
Holleshoryu	+ (14-1)	- (11-4)	- (10-5)	- (9-6)	+	- (9-6)	+	-	+	+	+	14	1.31
Mmikasazuma	- (13-2)	+ (12-3)	+ (14-1)	+ (10-5)	+	- (9-6)	-	-	-	+	+	11	1.73
Asashosakari	+ (14-1)	- (11-4)	- (11-4)	+ (10-5)	+	- (9-6)	+	-	-	+	+	11	1.36
kuroimori	- (13-2)	- (10-5)	- (11-4)	+ (10-5)	+	- (9-6)	+	-	+	-	+	13	1.00
Achiyama	- (13-2)	- (10-5)	+ (12-3)	+ (10-5)	+	- (9-6)	+	-	+	-	+	11	1.14
ryafuji	+ (14-1)	+ (12-3)	+ (13-2)	- (9-6)	+	+ (10-5)	+	+	-	-	+	12	1.77
Tsubame	- (12-3)	+ (12-3)	+ (15-0)	+ (11-4)	+	+ (13-2)	+	-	+	-	+	11	1.36
[/td]	5:9

5:9

5:9

8:6

14:0

5:9

13:1

3:11

9:5

5:9

13:1

[td2][/td2]

Osunaarashi's all-positive slate of votes probably isn't all that unexpected, so we're playing with just 10 rikishi this basho. Terunofuji had just one detractor in Mmikasazuma (this one's not looking so great right now), as did Seiro in Asojima (this one's turning out to be smart). On the other end of the spectrum Dewahayate attracted only three up votes for his makushita-joi debut.

The remaining selections are almost all split 9/5, the sole exception being the 8:6 for Kakuryu to achieve 10 wins. All four ozeki and yokozuna are playing for the same targets as they did in July, although Harumafuji (12-3) was much further away from having a 13-2 target selected than last time, so overall we're a bit more pessimistic about him now.

Kisenosato provided the first case of ambiguous selections since the high-ranker rules were revised, with 5 picks for 12+ wins, 4 picks for 11 wins, and 5 picks for 10 or less. This could have gone as either a 12-3 target (5 up, 9 down) or as an 11-4 (9 up, 5 down). I decided to go with the higher target because the average predicted score was on the high side (1x 14-1 and 4x 12-3, versus 5x exactly 10-5). Just to make it public - should this ever result in ambiguity as well, as a secondary tie-breaker I will sum up all players' TB selections. If that sum is even, the even win target is chosen (would have been 12 wins this time), otherwise the odd win target.

For the sake of completeness, Hakuho's target is his usual 14-1, although also with a lot less certainty and the majority of us in fact selecting 13-2 for him (and no zensho predictions), and Kotoshogiku is at 10-5 again.

Last not least we have two mortal rikishi with selections that are very much in play, with Hungarian Masutoo breaking slightly towards KK and up'n'coming talent Tomisakae towards MK.

The tie-breaker selections are dominated by 11's this time around as half the entrants went for that number. The rest are mostly 12's with a smattering of picks for 13 and 14.

Kuroimori has done what I think is a first since I started tracking it - he has picked with the majority throughout the ballot. Consequently his consensus score matches the theoretical minimum (1.00 this time); nobody is anywhere close to the possible maximum of 2.37, the leader is ryafuji at 1.77 slightly ahead of Mmikasazuma (due to Terunofuji) and Asojima (due to Seiro). Ryafuji has voted against the majority on 6 of the 7 "close" selections, only being on the larger side with Tomisakae. The consensus mean score is 1.37 this basho.

Showing the most agreement with each other with 10 picks in common are Achiyama/kuroimori (differing on Harumafuji), Holleshoryu/Jejima (Tomisakae), Holleshoryu/Pandaazuma (Hakuho) and Profomisakari/Tsubame (Harumafuji again). Clocking in at the other end are 8 pairings with just 4 matching choices. Involved in the greatest number of them (3 pairs each) are unsurprisingly Asojima and Mmikasazuma. Top and bottom consensus scorers kuroimori and ryafuji make up a low-score pairing as well.

That's all from the administrivia department, good luck with the ongoing game everyone! :-)

Edited September 24, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

And catching up on the results...

Day 7:

Gochozan in the backup squad (the Mongolian known as Torugawa until recently) gets us started early, running his score to 4-0 at his career-highest rank to earn himself a ballot appeareance for the next edition.

Day 8:

Hakuho gets the first KK among the ballot rikishi.

Day 9:

The first actual scores have come in with Dewahayate falling to 1-4 and injury-impaired Seiro running his losing streak to 8 and dropping to 1-8 overall. Asojima becomes the first leader thanks to his non-mainstream Seiro selection.

Day 9: 2/11 Decisions, TB 2-15
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asojima	2	11
2	Achiyama	1	11
2	Asashosakari	1	11
2	Mmikasazuma	1	11
2	Pandaazuma	1	11
2	Tsubame	1	11
2	Vikanohara	1	11
8	Jejima	1	12
8	Profomisakari	1	12
10	kuroimori	1	13
11	Holleshoryu	1	14
12	Fay	0	12
12	ryafuji	0	12
14	chishafuwaku	0	14

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 10:

It was a productive day for LKS, with Osunaarashi and Terunofuji achieving KK (widely expected) and Masutoo falling to MK (not so widely expected). In addition Harumafuji and Kisenosato are kachikoshi now (no points for that, though).

Asojima remains perfect in the lead for now.

Day 10: 5/11 Decisions, TB 6-14
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asojima	5	11
2	Asashosakari	4	11
3	Achiyama	3	11
3	Mmikasazuma	3	11
3	Pandaazuma	3	11
3	Tsubame	3	11
3	Vikanohara	3	11
8	Fay	3	12
8	Jejima	3	12
8	Profomisakari	3	12
8	ryafuji	3	12
12	kuroimori	3	13
13	Holleshoryu	3	14
14	chishafuwaku	2	14

All backup rikishi (besides already-KK Gochozan) are at 3-2 now, so we could have an unexpectedly large influx for the next basho, and a pretty high tie-breaker finish.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Just a quick non-update since no points have been scored since the last one...

Day 11:

Kachikoshi for Kakuryu and backupper Amuru.

Day 12:

Nothing ballot-relevant at all, but three more KKs for incoming rikishi, namely Irie, Kansei and Manazuru (the Chinese rikishi formerly known as Hanasegawa, he of the three heya affiliations - potentially four if he sticks around for another 18 months). The tie-breaker score stands at 11 after that, with ozeki Kotoshogiku and two 3-3 low-rankers still in play.

Edited September 26, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 13:

Harumafuji failed in his quest to reach at least 12 wins this basho - I'm talking about our target, of course, not the YDC's - which is an outcome the majority of all entrants predicted. The same goes for prospect Tomisakae's 3-4 makekoshi for which veteran Towanoyama was responsible. In less interesting news Kotoshogiku achieved kachikoshi.

We've gone from a single frontrunner to just about everyone being in the lead:

Day 13: 7/11 Decisions, TB 12-13
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Fay	5	12
1	Jejima	5	12
1	Profomisakari	5	12
4	kuroimori	5	13
5	Asashosakari	5	11
5	Asojima	5	11
5	Vikanohara	5	11
8	ryafuji	4	12
9	Achiyama	4	11
9	chishafuwaku	4	14
9	Holleshoryu	4	14
9	Pandaazuma	4	11
9	Tsubame	4	11
14	Mmikasazuma	3	11

The tie-breaker score rests on backupper Hokutohana's final bout - which has taken place by now, but for reasons of both suspense and laziness I'm not going to look it up at the moment. Should he have won, kuroimori (as the only one to predict a TB of 13) will have a big advantage over everyone else.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 14:

Kisenosato fell at the hands of yokozuna Hakuho and can no longer achieve 12 wins, good news for the majority of us again. Hokutohana achieved kachikoshi and will join the ballot for Kyushu.

The leaders' group remains virtually unchanged, only Profomisakari has fallen back:

Day 14: 8/11 Decisions, TB 13
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	kuroimori	6	13
2	Asashosakari	6	11
2	Asojima	6	11
2	Fay	6	12
2	Jejima	6	12
2	Vikanohara	6	11
7	Achiyama	5	11
7	Holleshoryu	5	14
7	Pandaazuma	5	11
7	Profomisakari	5	12
11	chishafuwaku	4	14
11	ryafuji	4	12
11	Tsubame	4	11
14	Mmikasazuma	3	11

Incredibly, all 6 leaders going into the final day can still win the yusho, as they entered 6 different predictions for the last three open slots of Hakuho, Kakuryu and Kotoshogiku:

Hak win, Kaku win, Giku win: Fay has this combination and would be the outright winner

Hak win, Kaku win, Giku loss: this one is Asashosakari's ticket

Hak win, Kaku loss, Giku loss: Jejima has claimed this choice

Hak loss, Kaku win, Giku loss: kuroimori wouldn't even need his tiebreaker if this outcome happens

Hak loss, Kaku loss, Giku win: Vikanohara will be hoping for this one

Hak loss, Kaku loss, Giku loss: and this is what Asojima's looking for

That of course leaves two other combinations, with the following potential victors:

Hak win, Kaku loss, Giku win: would be a yusho on brackets for Jejima over Fay (out on 4th bracket Kakuryu) and Vikanohara (out on first bracket Hakuho) - the only player who has this combo is ryafuji, but at 2 points behind he cannot catch up

Hak loss, Kaku win, Giku win: kuroimori would win it courtesy of his superior tiebreaker over Profomisakari (the only non-leader who can catch up on points here), Fay and Vikanohara.

Only one of these 8 possibilities would really mess up the KK/MK distribution, so I'm expecting that one to happen... Side note to the six leaders: If the complete opposite of your prediction happens, you'll finish makekoshi.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 15:

Giku won, Kakuryu lost and then Hakuho won, so in the end none of the 6 leaders got the final decisions completely correct. The winner, as detailed above, turned out to be Jejima on a bracket tie-breaker - congrats! This is Jejima's 5th yusho, and second of the year. Fay and Vikanohara receive jun-yusho honours. Like last tournament, the yusho decision wasn't rendered until the final bout of the basho.

Day 15: 11/11 Decisions, TB 13
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Jejima	8	12
2	Fay	8	12
2	Vikanohara	8	11
4	Asashosakari	7	11
4	Asojima	7	11
4	Holleshoryu	7	14
4	ryafuji	7	12
8	kuroimori	6	13
9	Pandaazuma	6	11
9	Profomisakari	6	12
11	Achiyama	5	11
11	Tsubame	5	11
13	chishafuwaku	4	14
14	Mmikasazuma	3	11

We're going to have a few more rikishi to play with next time thanks to the 6-for-6 performance by the backup squad:

1. Hakuho 40

2. Kisenosato 17

3. Harumafuji 16

4. Kakuryu 16

5. Osunaarashi 9*

6. Kotoshogiku 6

7. Terunofuji 6

Dewahayate 5

Masutoo 5

Tomisakae 5

Seiro 4

8. Irie 5

9. Gochozan 5

10. Kansei 5

11. Amuru 5

12. Manazuru 5

13. Hokutohana 5

---

14. Endo 4*

Many thanks as always for keeping the LKS faith! (Nodding yes...)

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Scores for banzuke purposes:

Jejima 9 (8+top)

Fay 9 (8+top)

Vikanohara 9 (8+top)

Asashosakari 7

Asojima 7

Holleshoryu 7

ryafuji 7

kuroimori 7 (6+tb)

Pandaazuma 6

Profomisakari 6

Achiyama 5

Tsubame 5

chishafuwaku 4

Mmikasazuma 3

Total: 91 / 14 = 6.50 ---> +1 win

New banzuke for Kyushu 2013:

kuroimori (Oe 8-7) O1 Asashosakari (Ow 8-7)

Fay (S1e 10-5 D) O2 ---

Vikanohara (Ke 10-5 D) S1 Asojima (S3e 8-7)

--- S2 Jejima (M1w 10-5 Y)

Doitsuyama (S2e kosho) K Pandaazuma (S1w 7-8)

ryafuji (M2w 8-7) M1 Achiyama (S2w 6-9)

Holleshoryu (M4e 8-7) M2 Profomisakari (M3w 7-8)

chishafuwaku (Kw 5-10) M3 Tsubame (M3e 6-9)

Mmikasazuma (M1e 4-11) M4 ScreechingOwl (M2e 0-0-15)

Fay earns her second promotion to ozeki (after a forgettable 2-basho stint in 2011) with a string of 5 consecutive kachikoshi, including a series of 9-6, 9-6 J, 10-5 D to clinch it. Asashosakari narrowly sheds the kadoban tag, while demoted ozeki Achiyama and Asojima both fail to regain the rank the easy way and will have to start over.

Edited September 29, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Incidentally, the reverse jinx worked for once:

Only one of these 8 possibilities would really mess up the KK/MK distribution, so I'm expecting that one to happen...

My gratitude to Hakuho, Kakuryu and Kotoshogiku for producing the exact opposite of the feared scenario.

[ryafuji 814]

Considering where I was after Day 9 (ie, absolutely nowhere) I'm very happy with my finish!