Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Kyushu 2013

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Welcome to the year-ending LKS competition! There's a bit more meat on the ballot this basho with 14 choices for you to make:

1. Hakuho 40 [score?]
2. Kisenosato 17 [score?]
3. Harumafuji 16 [score?]
4. Kakuryu 16 [score?]
5. Osunaarashi 9*
6. Kotoshogiku 6 [score?]
7. Terunofuji 6
8. Irie 5
9. Gochozan 5
10. Kansei 5
11. Amuru 5
12. Manazuru 5
13. Hokutohana 5
14. Endo 4*

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:
- For yokozuna and ozeki: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
- For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

First tie-breaker: From among those 14 guys up there and the further 8 rikishi (4 'veterans' and 4 'rookies') who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 22. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Yokozuna and ozeki count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 13 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hakuho.

Penultimate tie-breaker, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number.

Final tie-breaker, should two or more players with identical ballots have entered identical tie-breaker guesses as well or be at the same distance from opposite sides: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

[Asojima 2,874]

1. Hakuho 14

2. Kisenosato 10

3. Harumafuji 11

4. Kakuryu 9

5. Osunaarashi Y

6. Kotoshogiku N - 7

7. Terunofuji Y

8. Irie N

9. Gochozan N

10. Kansei Y

11. Amuru Y

12. Manazuru N

13. Hokutohana Y

14. Endo N

TB: 13

[chishafuwaku 476]

1. Hakuho 14
2. Kisenosato 11
3. Harumafuji 11
4. Kakuryu 8
5. Osunaarashi Yes

6. Kotoshogiku 7
7. Terunofuji Yes
8. Irie Yes
9. Gochozan Yes
10. Kansei Yes
11. Amuru Yes
12. Manazuru Yes
13. Hokutohana No
14. Endo No

TB:16

[Tsubame 361]

1. Hakuho 13-2
2. Kisenosato 11-4
3. Harumafuji 14-1
4. Kakuryu 10-5
5. Osunaarashi N
6. Kotoshogiku 9-6
7. Teranofuji Y
8. Irie N
9. Gochozan Y
10. Kansei N
11. Amuru Y
12. Manazuru N
13. Hokutohara Y
14. Endo N (damn, that's pretty hard... he's good, but his hurt ankle worries me...)

TB: 11

[Profomisakari 857]

1. Hakuho 14

2. Kisenosato 12

3. Harumafuji 11

4. Kakuryu 10

5. Osunaarashi Y

6. Kotoshogiku 10

7. Terunofuji Y

8. Irie Y

9. Gochozan Y

10. Kansei N

11. Amuru Y

12. Manazuru N

13. Hokutohana N

14. Endo N

TB = 12

Excuse me to have changed my vote against Endo

Profomisakari

Edited November 7, 2013 by Profomisakari

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

Right!

1. Hakuho 14
2. Kisenosato 11
3. Harumafuji 11
4. Kakuryu 9
5. Osunaarashi N
6. Kotoshogiku 9
7. Terunofuji Y
8. Irie Y
9. Gochozan N
10. Kansei N
11. Amuru Y
12. Manazuru Y
13. Hokutohana N
14. Endo N

TB: 13

Pandaazuma

Edited November 9, 2013 by Pandaazuma

[Mmikasazuma 12]

1. Hakuho 14-1
2. Kisenosato 13-2
3. Harumafuji 13-2
4. Kakuryu 9-6
5. Osunaarashi KK
6. Kotoshogiku 9-6
7. Teranofuji KK
8. Irie KK
9. Gochozan KK
10. Kansei MK
11. Amuru KK
12. Manazuru KK
13. Hokutohara MK
14. Endo MK

TB: 14

[Fay 1,677]

1. Hakuho 13-2

Kisenosato 11-4

Harumafuji 12-3

Kakuryu 12-3

Osunaarashi MK

Kotoshogiku 11-4

Teranofuji KK

Irie KK

Gochozan MK

Kansei MK

Amuru MK

Manazuru KK

Hokutohara KK

Endo MK

TB: 12

[Jejima 1,385]

1. Hakuho [13-2]
2. Kisenosato [12-3]
3. Harumafuji [12-3]
4. Kakuryu [8-7]
5. Osunaarashi KK
6. Kotoshogiku [9-6]
7. Terunofuji KK
8. Irie MK
9. Gochozan KK
10. Kansei MK
11. Amuru KK
12. Manazuru MK
13. Hokutohana MK
14. Endo MK

TB: [13]

[Vikanohara 171]

14 1. Hakuho

11 2. Kisenosato

11 3. Harumafuji

09 4. Kakuryu

KK 5. Osunaarashi

09 6. Kotoshogiku

KK 7. Terunofuji

KK 8. Irie

MK 9. Gochozan

MK 10. Kansei

KK 11. Amuru

MK 12. Manazuru

MK 13. Hokutohana

KK 14. Endo

14 as TB

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

1. Hakuho 14
2. Kisenosato 11
3. Harumafuji 10
4. Kakuryu 9
5. Osunaarashi Y
6. Kotoshogiku 10
7. Terunofuji Y
8. Irie Y
9. Gochozan N
10. Kansei N
11. Amuru Y
12. Manazuru N
13. Hokutohana N
14. Endo N

TB: 11

[Asashosakari 19,331]

14 Hakuho

12 Kisenosato

11 Harumafuji

9 Kakuryu

- Osunaarashi

9 Kotoshogiku

+ Terunofuji

- Irie

- Gochozan

- Kansei

+ Amuru

- Manazuru

- Hokutohana

- Endo

TB 13

[kuroimori 1,634]

14 Hakuho
12 Kisenosato
10 Harumafuji
10 Kakuryu
- Osunaarashi
9 Kotoshogiku
+ Terunofuji
- Irie
+ Gochozan
- Kansei
+ Amuru
+ Manazuru
- Hokutohana
- Endo

TB 14

[Achiyama 1,245]

My picks:

1. Hakuho 13-2
2. Kisenosato 11-4
3. Harumafuji 12-3
4. Kakuryu 9-6
5. Osunaarashi MK
6. Kotoshogiku 10-5
7. Teranofuji KK
8. Irie KK
9. Gochozan MK
10. Kansei MK
11. Amuru KK
12. Manazuru MK
13. Hokutohara MK
14. Endo MK

Tiebreaker: 12

Edited November 9, 2013 by Achiyama

[ryafuji 814]

1. Hakuho 13-2
2. Kisenosato 11-4
3. Harumafuji 10-5
4. Kakuryu 9-6
5. Osunaarashi KK
6. Kotoshogiku 9-6
7. Teranofuji MK
8. Irie KK
9. Gochozan MK
10. Kansei KK
11. Amuru KK
12. Manazuru MK
13. Hokutohara MK
14. Endo KK

TB: 14

[Asashosakari 19,331]

I'm sorry - as generous as I usually am with the deadline, but this is far too late.

[ryafuji 814]

Fair enough. I just saw that you hadn't yet done your summary. Eight month old kid means far less time to get to the computer.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Time for the selection stats:

Player	Haku	Kise	Haru	Kaku	Osuna	Giku	Teru	Irie	Gocho	Kan	Amuru	Mana	Hoku	Endo	TB	Cons
Asojima	+ (14-1)	- (10-5)	- (11-4)	- (9-6)	+	- (MK)	+	-	-	+	+	-	+	-	13	1.69
chishafuwaku	+ (14-1)	- (11-4)	- (11-4)	- (8-7)	+	- (MK)	+	+	+	+	+	+	-	-	16	1.55
Tsubame	- (13-2)	- (11-4)	+ (14-1)	+ (10-5)	-	- (9-6)	+	-	+	-	+	-	+	-	11	1.82
Profomisakari	+ (14-1)	+ (12-3)	- (11-4)	+ (10-5)	+	+ (10-5)	+	+	+	-	+	-	-	-	12	1.57
Mmikasazuma	+ (14-1)	+ (13-2)	+ (13-2)	- (9-6)	+	- (9-6)	+	+	+	-	+	+	-	-	14	1.47
Fay	- (13-2)	- (11-4)	+ (12-3)	+ (12-3)	-	+ (11-4)	+	+	-	-	-	+	+	-	12	2.11
Jejima	- (13-2)	+ (12-3)	+ (12-3)	- (8-7)	+	- (9-6)	+	-	+	-	+	-	-	-	13	1.60
Vikanohara	+ (14-1)	- (11-4)	- (11-4)	- (9-6)	+	- (9-6)	+	+	-	-	+	-	-	+	14	1.50
Pandaazuma	+ (14-1)	- (11-4)	- (11-4)	- (9-6)	-	- (9-6)	+	+	-	-	+	+	-	-	13	1.30
Doitsuyama	+ (14-1)	- (11-4)	- (10-5)	- (9-6)	+	+ (10-5)	+	+	-	-	+	-	-	-	11	1.33
Asashosakari	+ (14-1)	+ (12-3)	- (11-4)	- (9-6)	-	- (9-6)	+	-	-	-	+	-	-	-	13	1.39
kuroimori	+ (14-1)	+ (12-3)	- (10-5)	+ (10-5)	-	- (9-6)	+	-	+	-	+	+	-	-	14	1.62
Achiyama	- (13-2)	- (11-4)	+ (12-3)	- (9-6)	-	+ (10-5)	+	+	-	-	+	-	-	-	12	1.57
[/td]	9:4	5:8	5:8	4:9	7:6	4:9	13:0	8:5	6:7	2:11	12:1	5:8	3:10	1:12

One unanimously voted rikishi this basho with Terunofuji. A couple more got close though, as Amuru only found one detractor in Fay, while ailing Endo was voted for kachikoshi only by Vikanohara. Also in rather lopsided MK territory are heavy Sakaigawa semi-prospect Kansei and sandanme dweller Hokutohana. Asojima voted positively on both of them.

The remaining non-[yokozuna|ozeki] are well in play, and especially Osunaarashi's makuuchi debut appears to be an interesting riddle for us. Further down I must admit I'm a bit surprised by the optimism shown about both Irie and Gochozan, but perhaps it's me who's way out this time. Finally, veteran Chinese rikishi Manazuru (who could end up fighting out of four different stables if he stays active for another year and a half) was voted slightly to the negative side.

All five high-rankers have ended up with the same target records as in Aki basho. Hakuho (14-1) is the only one to receive more up than down votes at that chosen level, however. Kisenosato and Harumafuji (both 12-3) as well as Kotoshogiku (10-5) have received just about the same level of support as they did two months ago, while Kakuryu's 10-5 had quite a few more believers last time.

The tie-breaker choices are nicely spread out this basho with every number from 11 to 14 receiving multiple selections, along with an outlier vote of 16 by chishafuwaku. Much will depend here on how the 8 backup rikishi do, especially the four rookies who may or may not be hitting the wall.

The most mainstream ballot was submitted by Pandaazuma this basho, whose 1.30 consensus score is pretty close to the minimum of 1.18, although Doitsuyama at 1.33 follows right behind. Most of the rest of the field is spread nicely from 1.39 to 1.69, with a slight outlier vote (1.82) by Tsubame and a massive outlier by (who else?) Fay at 2.11. Even she didn't make it near the possible maximum of 2.57, but that's not a big surprise with such a large ballot.

In the agreement department we've got a clear frontrunner pair this time with Doitsuyama/Vikanohara who share 12 of their 14 picks. Only Kotoshogiku and Endo were voted differently by them (and it looks like each will get one of them right). A 9-strong bunch of pairings with 11 picks in common follows, Pandaazuma leading the way here by being part of 4 of them; Doitsuyama follows with another 3 couplings.

At the other end of the spectrum we've got 5 pairs of players who share just 5 picks each, and it's clear who's calling the shots here as Fay is part of all 5 of them, with Asashosakari, Asojima, chishafuwaku, Jejima and Vikanohara respectively. Somewhat surprisingly Fay and Pandaazuma (owners of the least and most mainstream choices) actually have 8 joint selections, one of Fay's highest numbers.

On to the basho! :-) As always, good luck to everyone.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 8:

Our two sandanme representatives Manazuru and Hokutohana have quickly decided to leave us, and ozeki Kotoshogiku's injury has not only caused him to miss his 10-5 target, but also ended his kachikoshi tenure altogether. A trio of players successfully predicted all three negative outcomes, while everybody else collected two points - well, everybody else bar Fay, who stands pointless for now.

In KK/MK decisions without implications for the standings we have the yokozuna pair at 8-0, and backup rikishi Tsurunoumi at 0-4.

Day 8: 3/14 Decisions, TB 2-18
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	3	13
1	Jejima	3	13
3	Vikanohara	3	14
4	Doitsuyama	2	11
4	Tsubame	2	11
6	Achiyama	2	12
6	Profomisakari	2	12
8	Asojima	2	13
8	Pandaazuma	2	13
10	kuroimori	2	14
10	Mmikasazuma	2	14
12	chishafuwaku	2	16
13	Fay	0	12

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 9:

An early makekoshi for Tamanoi-beya's collegiate talent Irie in his first go at the makushita promotion zone - duly predicted by 5 players, including two of the leaders. Among the ballot hopefuls Hakuho's second protegé Ishiura is now 4-1 and will march closer to juryo.

Day 9: 4/14 Decisions, TB 3-17
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	4	13
1	Jejima	4	13
3	Tsubame	3	11
4	Asojima	3	13
5	kuroimori	3	14
5	Vikanohara	3	14
7	Doitsuyama	2	11
8	Achiyama	2	12
8	Profomisakari	2	12
10	Pandaazuma	2	13
11	Mmikasazuma	2	14
12	chishafuwaku	2	16
13	Fay	0	12

Edited November 19, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 10:

Kachikoshi for the ozeki pair of Kisenosato and Kakuryu, but both still have some way to go towards their target records. Also KK are the Ms9 pair of Kansei and Amuru - nearly everybody predicted that for the Russian ex-juryo, while just Asojima and chishafuwaku have now scored with Kansei. In the back line Takakasuga has dropped to 1-4 and won't make it onto the ballot after all.

We're back to three leaders, while Fay's results have arguably crossed over from tragedy to comedy by now:

Day 10: 6/14 Decisions, TB 7-16
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	5	13
1	Asojima	5	13
1	Jejima	5	13
4	Tsubame	4	11
5	kuroimori	4	14
5	Vikanohara	4	14
7	chishafuwaku	4	16
8	Doitsuyama	3	11
9	Achiyama	3	12
9	Profomisakari	3	12
11	Pandaazuma	3	13
12	Mmikasazuma	3	14
13	Fay	0	12

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 10:

Nothing much happened, only Hitenryu failed to achieve kachikoshi #5.

Day 11:

As predicted by everybody, Terunofuji achieved an early KK and now looks good for a makuuchi debut to open the next year. Two more results have come in - yokozuna Harumafuji is already at his 12-win target, while fellow Mongolian Gochozan has dropped to 2-4. All three leaders got one prediction correct and they remain untroubled in the top spot, as the only players to pick up both points ((Fay and Achiyama) were further back.

In the secondary ranks prospect Onosho has achieved his promotion to the next ballot now.

Day 12: 9/14 Decisions, TB 9-14
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	7	13
1	Asojima	7	13
1	Jejima	7	13
4	Tsubame	6	11
5	Achiyama	6	12
6	Vikanohara	6	14
7	Doitsuyama	5	11
8	Pandaazuma	5	13
9	kuroimori	5	14
9	Mmikasazuma	5	14
11	chishafuwaku	5	16
12	Profomisakari	4	12
13	Fay	3	12

[Asashosakari 19,331]

The yusho competition is essentially a four-horse race now between the three leaders and Tsubame. Vikanohara also has a theoretical chance, but (too) much needs to go right for that to be realized.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 13:

It's the end o' somebody's kachikoshi hopes, which is at least good news for everybody in here except Vikanohara (who's now officially out of the yusho race). The next ballot gets some further additions as prospect Tochinosato and new kimarite marvel Kimishima achieve their 5th KKs.

Not much of a change in the standings:

Day 13: 10/14 Decisions, TB 11-13
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	8	13
1	Asojima	8	13
1	Jejima	8	13
4	Tsubame	7	11
5	Achiyama	7	12
6	Doitsuyama	6	11
7	Pandaazuma	6	13
8	chishafuwaku	6	16
8	kuroimori	6	14
8	Mmikasazuma	6	14
8	Vikanohara	6	14
12	Profomisakari	5	12
13	Fay	4	12

The winner of Hakuho-Kisenosato will reach his target record tomorrow.

Tsubame can only win the yusho now if Osunaarashi falls to MK from 7-6, Kakuryu wins at least one more bout, tomorrow's Hak-Kise loser also loses on Day 15 and the last remaining backupper Kotoseigo goes makekoshi tomorrow. The scenarios for the three leaders are pretty straight-forward:

- Asashosakari wins if both Hakuho and Kisenosato hit their targets

- Asojima wins if Hakuho hits it and Kisenosato doesn't*

- Jejima wins if Kisenosato hits it and Hakuho doesn't*

* Except for the one sub-scenario each in which Tsubame would sneak away with the yusho.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 14:

Kisenosato scored a thrilling win over yokozuna Hakuho, achieving his 12-win target in the process. Asojima was ousted from the yusho race with that. Earlier in the day Tsubame was already eliminated when backupper Kotoseigo received a freebie win for his kachikoshi.

Osunaarashi lost and together with Kakuryu and Hakuho we'll have no less than three open slots for the final day. The LKS yusho decision comes down to Jejima and Asashosakari and will once again be determined only by the final bout of the basho:

Day 14: 11/14 Decisions, TB 12-13
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	9	13
1	Jejima	9	13
3	Asojima	8	13
4	Achiyama	7	12
5	kuroimori	7	14
5	Mmikasazuma	7	14
5	Tsubame	7	11
8	Profomisakari	6	12
9	Pandaazuma	6	13
10	chishafuwaku	6	16
10	Doitsuyama	6	11
10	Vikanohara	6	14
13	Fay	4	12

The tiebreaker score will be 12 if Osunaarashi loses and 13 if he wins. In the musubi-no-ichiban Jejima will be rooting for Harumafuji while Asashosakari will be in Hakuho's corner.