Asashosakari 19,096 Posted March 7, 2014 Sorry, a bit late this time... The top ranks are very diminished by now (and who'd have thought it would be Kakuryu who outlasts everybody else in the non-Hakuho division?), but thankfully there's still no shortage of rikishi for us to predict thanks in part to three bonus sekitori choices: 1. Hakuho 42 [score?] 2. Kakuryu 18 [score?] 3. Terunofuji 8 4. Amuru 7 5. Ishiura 6* 6. Tochinosato 6 7. Onosho 6* 8. Fukuyamato 6* 9. Iwasaki 5 10. Towanoyama 5 11. Koba 5* 12. Shineiyama 5** 13. Goeido 4 [score?] 14. Sadanoumi 4 15. Arawashi 4 TB: [pick?] (* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut, ** marks rikishi with no makekoshi since re-debut) The scoring and thus your game assignment: - For yokozuna, ozeki and sekiwake: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction. - For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction. (For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the Y/O/S high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.) First tie-breaker: From among those 15 guys up there and the further 9 rikishi (7 'veterans' and 2 'rookies') who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 24. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Yokozuna, ozeki and sekiwake count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records. Next 14 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hakuho. Penultimate tie-breaker, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number. Final tie-breaker, should two or more players with identical ballots have entered identical tie-breaker guesses as well or be at the same distance from opposite sides: earliest entry. Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker. Deadline: Shonichi noon JST. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 474 Posted March 7, 2014 1. Hakuho 15-02. Kakuryu 12-33. Terunofuji kk4. Amuru kk5. Ishiura kk6. Tochinosato mk 7. Onosho kk8. Fukuyamato mk9. Iwasaki kk10. Towanoyama mk 11. Koba kk12. Shineiyama kk 13. Goeido 8-714. Sadanoumi kk15. Arawashi kk tie-break 18 chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Profomisakari 851 Posted March 7, 2014 .1. Hakuho . . .42 14 .2. Kakuryu. . .18 . 12 .3. Terunofuji . 8 . KK .4. Amuru. . . . 7 . KK .5. Ishiura. . . 6*. KK .6. Tochinosato. 6 . MK .7. Onosho . . . 6*. KK .8. Fukuyamato . 6*. KK .9. Iwasaki. . . 5 . KK 10. Towanoyama . 5 . KK 11. Koba . . . . 5*. KK 12. Shineiyama . 5** KK 13. Goeido . . . 4 . .8 14. Sadanoumi. . 4 . KK 15. Arawashi . . 4 . KK TB: 12 Profomisakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tsubame 359 Posted March 7, 2014 Hakuho KK 13-2 Kakuryu KK 12-3 Teranofuji KK Amuru KK Ishiura KK Tochinosato KK Onosho KK Kukuyamato MK Iwasaki MK Towanoyama MK Koba KK Shineiyama KK Goeido KK 9-6 Sadanoumi KK Arawashi MK TB: 17 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asojima 2,873 Posted March 8, 2014 1. Hakuho 14 2. Kakuryu 11 3. Terunofuji y 4. Amuru y 5. Ishiura y 6. Tochinosato n 7. Onosho n 8. Fukuyamato n 9. Iwasaki n 10. Towanoyama n 11. Koba y 12. Shineiyama n 13. Goeido 9 14. Sadanoumi n 15. Arawashi y TB: 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jejima 1,363 Posted March 8, 2014 1. Hakuho 13-2 2. Kakuryu 13-2 3. Terunofuji KK 4. Amuru KK 5. Ishiura KK 6. Tochinosato MK 7. Onosho KK 8. Fukuyamato MK 9. Iwasaki KK10. Towanoyama KK11. Koba KK12. Shineiyama KK13. Goeido 8-714. Sadanoumi KK15. Arawashi KKTB: [17] Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pandaazuma 1,310 Posted March 8, 2014 Hakuho: 14 Kakuryu: 10 Terunofuji: Y Amuru: Y Ishiura: Y Tochinosato: Y Onosho: Y Fukuyamato: N Iwasaki: N Towanoyama: N Koba: Y Shineiyama: N Goeido: 9 Sadanoumi: N Arawashi: Y TB: 14 Pandaazuma And my thanks to Asashosakari for keeping this great little game going. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Doitsuyama 1,178 Posted March 8, 2014 1. Hakuho 142. Kakuryu 113. Terunofuji y4. Amuru y5. Ishiura y6. Tochinosato n7. Onosho y8. Fukuyamato n9. Iwasaki y10. Towanoyama n11. Koba y12. Shineiyama y13. Goeido 814. Sadanoumi y15. Arawashi nTB: 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vikanohara 171 Posted March 8, 2014 15 Hakuho10 Kakuryu KK Terunofuji KK Amuru KK Ishiura mk Tochinosato KK Onosho mk Fukuyamato KK Iwasaki mk Towanoyama KK Koba mk Shineiyama 10 Goeido KK Sadanoumi KK Arawashi 16 as TB Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fay 1,677 Posted March 8, 2014 1. Hakuho 14-1 2. Kakuryu 15-0 3. Terunofuji KK 4. Amuru MK 5. Ishiura KK 6. Tochinosato MK 7. Onosho KK 8. Fukuyamato KK 9. Iwasaki MK10. Towanoyama MK11. Koba KK12. Shineiyama MK13. Goeido 12-314. Sadanoumi KK15. Arawashi KKTB: 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,096 Posted March 8, 2014 14 Hakuho 11 Kakuryu + Terunofuji + Amuru - Ishiura + Tochinosato + Onosho - Fukuyamato - Iwasaki - Towanoyama - Koba - Shineiyama 9 Goeido + Sadanoumi - Arawashi TB 12 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Achiyama 1,235 Posted March 8, 2014 Hakuho: 14 Kakuryu: 12 Terunofuji: MK Amuru: KK Ishiura: KK Tochinosato: KK Onosho: MK Fukuyamato: MK Iwasaki: KK Towanoyama: KK Koba: KK Shineiyama: KK Goeido: 9 Sadanoumi: MK Arawashi: MK Tiebreaker: 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Holleshoryu 16 Posted March 8, 2014 1. Hakuho 14 2. Kakuryu 13 3. Terunofuji y 4. Amuru y 5. Ishiura y 6. Tochinosato n 7. Onosho n 8. Fukuyamato n 9. Iwasaki n 10. Towanoyama y 11. Koba n 12. Shineiyama y 13. Goeido 9 14. Sadanoumi n 15. Arawashi y TB: 11 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kuroimori 1,634 Posted March 8, 2014 14 Hakuho 12 Kakuryu KK Terunofuji KK Amuru MK Ishiura MK Tochinosato KK Onosho KK Fukuyamato MK Iwasaki MK Towanoyama KK Koba KK Shineiyama 09 Goeido KK Sadanoumi KK Arawashi 15 Tiebreaker Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mmikasazuma 12 Posted March 9, 2014 May I still play? I would give KK for every one. Hakuho 14-1 Kakuryu 12-3 Goeido 8-7 TB 17 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,096 Posted March 19, 2014 After rejecting ryafuji with a similar late submission recently, I'm afraid I wasn't able to accept Mmikasazuma's entry, so we've got 13 active players for Haru basho. Apologies for the late selection stats: Player Haku Kaku Teru Amu Ishi Tochi Ono Fuku Iwa Towa Koba Shin Goe Sada Ara TB Cons chishafuwaku + (15-0) + (12-3) + + + - + - + - + + - (8-7) + + 18 1.28 Profomisakari + (14-1) + (12-3) + + + - + + + + + + - (8-7) + + 12 1.60 Tsubame - (13-2) + (12-3) + + + + + - - - + + + (9-6) + - 17 1.62 Asojima + (14-1) - (11-4) + + + - - - - - + - + (9-6) - + 13 1.60 Jejima - (13-2) + (13-2) + + + - + - + + + + - (8-7) + + 17 1.65 Pandaazuma + (14-1) - (10-5) + + + + + - - - + - + (9-6) - + 14 1.55 Doitsuyama + (14-1) - (11-4) + + + - + - + - + + - (8-7) + - 13 1.50 Vikanohara + (15-0) - (10-5) + + + - + - + - + - + (10-5) + + 16 1.31 Fay + (14-1) + (15-0) + - + - + + - - + - + (12-3) + + 14 1.67 Asashosakari + (14-1) - (11-4) + + - + + - - - - - + (9-6) + - 12 1.95 Achiyama + (14-1) + (12-3) - + + + - - + + + + + (9-6) - - 14 2.04 Holleshoryu + (14-1) + (13-2) + + + - - - - + - + + (9-6) - + 11 1.78 kuroimori + (14-1) + (12-3) + + - - + + - - + + + (9-6) + + 15 1.55 [/td] 11:2 8:5 12:1 12:1 11:2 4:9 10:3 3:10 6:7 4:9 11:2 8:5 9:4 9:4 9:4 It finally happened, the selections for one of the top-rankers didn't allow for a clear target record - the 13 Hakuho picks included 2x 15-0, 9x 14-1 and 2x 13-2. With a 14-win target that would be an 11:2 split, with 15 wins it's a 2:11 split. As mentioned many moons ago when the rules were introduced, this means I'm forced to use a tie-breaking procedure, and appropriately enough we're using your tie-breaker choices for that: The sum total of the TB picks is even (186), so Hakuho's target record is also chosen as the even number, i.e. 14 wins. The Kakuryu predictions on the other hand were all over the place this time, with a low of 10-5 (Pandaazuma and Vikanohara) and a high of 15-0 (Fay). The target record for the best-possible split ended up as 12-3, two wins higher than Kakuryu was predicted last basho. Goeido mainly attracted 9-6 votes, with more players going below than above, so 9-6 is the target here. For the first time in four tournaments no rikishi attracted the same choice by everyone, although several are very close. Only Achiyama didn't expect a KK for Terunofuji, only Fay voted against the KK for Amuru, only Asashosakari and kuroimori voted against Ishiura's KK, and just Asashosakari and Holleshoryu didn't favour Koba for KK. Most other rikishi also received pretty lopsided 10:3 or 9:4 (or vice versa) votes, only Iwasaki (6:7) and Shineiyama (8:5) are strongly in play. The tie-breaker selections are more diverse than they've ever been before, with every number from 11 to 18 (!) picked at least once, and no number selected by more than 3 players. The consensus scores (possible range: 1.08-2.91) are also rather unusual this basho, with Achiyama (2.04) and Asashosakari (1.95) having the most unusual ballots by quite a distance, while chishafuwaku (1.28) and Vikanohara (1.31) have entered the most "normal" choices, also by quite a distance. Perennial underdog picker Fay (1.67) has a middle-of-the-road entry for a change. Our two consensus leaders chishafuwaku and Vikanohara have agreed on 12 of their 15 choices, but that's not the greatest agreement - chishafuwaku shares 13 of his picks with Doitsuyama, Jejima and Profomisakari, with Asojima/Pandaazuma and Jejima/Profomisakari at 13 as well. The least agreement (5 picks) was produced by the pairs of Achiyama/Fay, Asashosakari/Jejima (the two ozeki, hmm...) and Asashosakari/Profomisakari. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,096 Posted March 19, 2014 (edited) Day 8: Hakuho achieved KK becoming the first rikishi to secure his stay on the ballot. Day 9: Kakuryu also collected his 8th win, and in the backup squad Kotokensei, Ikeru and Itadaki improved to 4-1. That trio will be on the ballot proper in May. The first actual score of the basho comes as the result of Towanoyama's 1-4 makekoshi; most players correctly predicted that. Day 10: Goeido is the final high-ranker to achieve his kachikoshi, but it's still a matter of reaching their individual target records. Shineiyama moves up to 4-1 and will stay on the ballot, another result that was expected by the majority of us. The backuppers have their first MK now as Kasugamaru fell to 1-4 and won't be joining the game for May. Day 10: 2/15 Decisions, TB 7-22 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Doitsuyama 2 13 2 kuroimori 2 15 3 Tsubame 2 17 4 chishafuwaku 2 18 5 Holleshoryu 1 11 6 Asashosakari 1 12 6 Profomisakari 1 12 8 Asojima 1 13 9 Achiyama 1 14 9 Fay 1 14 9 Pandaazuma 1 14 12 Vikanohara 1 16 13 Jejima 1 17 Edited March 19, 2014 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,096 Posted March 19, 2014 Day 11: We've entered the hot phase of the tournament for LKS now; today three rikishi achieved their kachikoshi to remain part of the game. Up in juryo it's resurgent Sadanoumi who may even be headed for his makuuchi debut, and in makushita it's Iwasaki and Onosho. None of those outcomes comes particularly unexpected, so lots of points to go around. In the backup section young Ryokizan fell to 2-4 today to miss out on his fifth straight KK. The standings have been blown apart by today's developments, with the leading pair still perfect after 5 decisions, but some other players also having just one correct pick so far: Day 11: 5/15 Decisions, TB 10-21 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Doitsuyama 5 13 2 chishafuwaku 5 18 3 Profomisakari 4 12 4 kuroimori 4 15 5 Vikanohara 4 16 6 Jejima 4 17 6 Tsubame 4 17 8Asashosakari3 12 9Fay3 14 10Achiyama2 14 10Pandaazuma2 14 12Holleshoryu1 11 13Asojima1 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,096 Posted March 20, 2014 Day 12: Goeido achieved his target-clinching 9th win, and Arawashi secured his kachikoshi. Both outcomes were widely expected, so the scoring remains high. We have no less than 8 lower division rikishi at 3-3 now (4 ballot, 4 backup), and a lot will turn on their results of the next two days. Neither of yesterday's leaders scored 2 points today; Doitsuyama even missed out on both so he falls out of the top spot altogether. chishafuwaku is joined by a pair of new co-leaders: Day 12: 7/15 Decisions, TB 11-21 Pos Player Pts TB 1 kuroimori 6 15 2 Vikanohara 6 16 3 chishafuwaku 6 18 4 Profomisakari 5 12 5 Doitsuyama 5 13 6 Fay 5 14 7 Jejima 5 17 7 Tsubame 5 17 9 Asashosakari 4 12 10 Pandaazuma 4 14 11 Holleshoryu 3 11 12 Asojima 3 13 13 Achiyama 3 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,096 Posted March 21, 2014 Day 13: A pair of lower-rankers went opposite ways today, with undersized kimarite marval Fukuyamato (formerly Kimishima) picking up his 7th straight KK and heavy collegiate Koba falling to 3-4. For a change these were both severe underdog outcomes, and only Profomisakari/Fay/kuroimori (Fukuyamato) and Asashosakari/Holleshoryu (Koba) pick up a point. In addition ozeki Kakuryu collected his 12th win to meet his target record, which is good news for a slight majority of us. The 4 remaining rikishi in the backup section were all in action as well, producing one kachikoshi (Tatsu) and three makekoshi (Horikiri, Shinohara and Aokishin - incidentally, Tatsu and Horikiri were forced to decide their fates head to head. Tatsu will be appearing on the ballot for the second time, his previous longest KK streak ended at 5 in early 2012. In some good news: The tie-breaker range now stands at 13 to 17, so somebody will have the correct TB pick. Kuroimori managed to get rid of his fellow leaders and now tops the table all by himself: Day 13: 10/15 Decisions, TB 13-17 Pos Player Pts TB 1 kuroimori 8 15 2 Fay 7 14 3 chishafuwaku 7 18 3 Profomisakari 7 12 5 Vikanohara 6 16 6 Jejima 6 17 6 Tsubame 6 17 8 Doitsuyama 5 13 9 Asashosakari 5 12 9 Holleshoryu 5 11 11 Achiyama 4 14 11 Pandaazuma 4 14 13 Asojima 3 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,096 Posted March 22, 2014 Day 14: Hakuho's second loss sealed his target miss, which was very good news for Tsubame and Jejima, the only two to predict he'll win less than 14 bouts this basho. Earlier in the day Ishiura secured his KK at the finishing line while Tochinosato was unable to do so. Day 14: 13/15 Decisions, TB 14-16 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Fay 9 14 2 kuroimori 9 15 3 chishafuwaku 9 18 3 Jejima 9 17 3 Profomisakari 9 12 6 Vikanohara 8 16 7 Tsubame 8 17 8 Doitsuyama 7 13 8 Holleshoryu 7 11 10 Achiyama 5 14 10 Pandaazuma 5 14 12 Asashosakari 5 12 12 Asojima 5 13 We entered the day with five players who still had a shot at the yusho, but have now lost Profomisakari and Tsubame (despite his Hakuho success; he also needed a Tochinosato KK). Jejima, Fay and kuroimori remain in the race, with Kakuryu's biggest fan having the nominally greatest chances - she wins outright if Amuru falls to MK tomorrow, regardless of the other decision. Jejima needs a KK for Amuru and also for Terunofuji to secure a playoff win on the brackets, while kuroimori needs Amuru KK / Terunofuji MK to sneak a victory via tiebreaker. It's a bit of an absurd situation since kuroimori actually predicted a kachikoshi for Terunofuji, but there we are. chishafuwaku can only finish runner-up in any scenario. Meanwhile, the guy writing these words was the only one to go 0-for-3 in today's results, which has secured the end of my time as ozeki. (One basho short of tying kuroimori's longevity record, dammit.) We've had no less than seven (!) players on the ozeki bubble at the start of the tournament - two kadoban ozeki, two freshly demoted ozeki, three sekiwake with top results last basho - and the next banzuke will probably look nothing like the last one. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,096 Posted March 22, 2014 (edited) Incidentally, because of various scoring quirks the Amuru bout will be worth +/- 3 wins for Fay. No pressure... ;-) Edit: I was wrong, it's only +/- 3 wins when Terunofuji wins. It's +/- 4 wins if he loses. :-P Edited March 22, 2014 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,096 Posted March 23, 2014 Day 15: Both Amuru and Terunofuji achieved the last-minute kachikoshi, which means the yusho goes to...Jejima! I should probably write a macro for these announcements, as he has won 4 of the last 6 yusho now. (Quite incredible really, considering the volatility in this game.) If only he'd stop putting makekoshi in between, we'd have an obvious LKS yokozuna on our hands here. Well, maybe after May... The yusho is decided on the first bracket with Jejima the only top-placed player to predict Hakuho's less than stellar record. chishafuwaku, kuroimori and Profomisakari add a yusho-doten to their trophy cabinets, while Jejima extends his unbelievable record of success in bracket playoffs (now 5-for-6). Final standings: Day 15: 15/15 Decisions, TB 16 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Jejima 11 17 2 chishafuwaku 11 18 2 kuroimori 11 15 2 Profomisakari 11 12 5 Vikanohara 10 16 6 Fay 10 14 6 Tsubame 10 17 8 Doitsuyama 9 13 8 Holleshoryu 9 11 10 Asashosakari 7 12 10 Asojima 7 13 10 Pandaazuma 7 14 13 Achiyama 6 14 Not many casualties in the squad this time, so we'll be back in May with another large ballot, including one very interesting sekitori guest: 1. Hakuho 43 2. Kakuryu 19 3. Terunofuji 9 4. Amuru 8 5. Ishiura 7* Tochinosato 6 6. Onosho 7* 7. Fukuyamato 7* 8. Iwasaki 6 Towanoyama 5 Koba 5* 9. Shineiyama 6** 10. Goeido 5 11. Sadanoumi 5 12. Arawashi 5 13. Tatsu 5 14. Kotokensei 5 15. Ikeru 5** 16. Itadaki 5 --- 17. Chiyootori 4 Hope to see you around! (Bye, bye...) 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,096 Posted March 23, 2014 Scores for banzuke purposes: Vikanohara picks up the bonus win for getting the tie-breaker right. Jejima 12 (11+top) chishafuwaku 12 (11+top) kuroimori 12 (11+top) Profomisakari 12 (11+top) Vikanohara 11 (10+tb) Fay 10 Tsubame 10 Doitsuyama 9 Holleshoryu 9 Asashosakari 7 Asojima 7 Pandaazuma 7 Achiyama 6 Total: 124 / 13 = 9.54 ---> -2 wins New banzuke for Natsu 2014: Jejima (Oe 10-5 Y) O kuroimori (S2e 10-5 D) Tsubame (S1w 8-7) S1 Fay (S2w 8-7) Profomisakari (M1w 10-5 D) S2 Asashosakari (Ow 5-10) chishafuwaku (M2w 10-5 D) K Vikanohara (M2e 9-6) Doitsuyama (Ke 7-8) M1 Asojima (S1e 5-10) Holleshoryu (M4e 7-8) M2 Pandaazuma (Kw 5-10) Mmikasazuma (M3e kosho) M3 Achiyama (M1e 4-11) In the end, slightly less ozeki activity than I thought at one point. Jejima goes from kadoban to tsunatori, Asashosakari gets demoted after back-to-back MK, and kuroimori jumps right back up after getting demoted himself two months ago. It's only the second time in 11 ozeki demotions that the direct repromotion has been successful. As mentioned earlier Fay also would have secured her ozeki return if Amuru had lost (which would have given her an 11-4 record), but now she'll have to start a completely new run. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jejima 1,363 Posted March 23, 2014 I feel like Kaio ;-) Many thanks for this fun game. I'll try and get to Yokozuna next basho.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
