Natsu 2014 Banzuke

[Asashosakari 19,096]

Hakuho Y1 Harumafuji

Kakuryu Y2 ---

Kisenosato O Kotoshogiku

Goeido S Tochiozan

Yoshikaze K Chiyootori

Aoiyama M1 Takekaze

Chiyotairyu M2 Takarafuji

Aminishiki M3 Kyokutenho

Endo M4 Toyonoshima

Shohozan M5 Ikioi

Kaisei M6 Tamawashi

Homasho M7 Tokushoryu

Myogiryu M8 Takayasu

Terunofuji M9 Okinoumi

Osunaarashi M10 Tochinowaka

Toyohibiki M11 Chiyomaru

Takanoiwa M12 Jokoryu

Masunoyama M13 Kitataiki

Gagamaru M14 Tokitenku

Kyokushuho M15 Sokokurai

Arawashi M16 Chiyonokuni

Sadanoumi M17 ---

Azumaryu J1 Daido

Sotairyu J2 Kagamio

Asahisho J3 Wakanosato

Asasekiryu J4 Tamaasuka

Sadanofuji J5 Satoyama

Chiyoo J6 Tenkaiho

Homarefuji J7 Akiseyama

Fujiazuma J8 Shotenro

Amuru J9 Tokushinho

Tosayutaka J10 Ichinojo

Higonojo J11 Wakakoyu

Sakigake J12 Seiro

Kotoyuki J13 Yoshiazuma

Daikiho J14 Takanoyama

Kitaharima Ms1 Wakanoshima

Daieisho Ms2 Ishiura

Tochihiryu Ms3 Kyokutaisei

Kizenryu Ms4 Horyuyama

Iwasaki Ms5 Higoarashi

Yamatofuji Ms6 Tochinoshin

Kotokobai Ms7 Sagatsukasa

Kotoeko Ms8 Kawabata

Dairaido Ms9 Tatsu

Chiyoshoma Ms10 Kotomisen

Gochozan Ms11 Dewahayate

Musashiumi Ms12 Tsurubayashi

Tanzo Ms13 Sensho

Kihonoumi Ms14 Masunoumi

Takatoshi Ms15 Oiwato

Edited April 23, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,096]

Wow, Sadanoumi promoted...Sakaigawa's clout must be even greater than I thought. Congrats anyway!

[kuroimori 1,634]

Homasho... homma ni???

Anyone got him right at GTB?

[Asashosakari 19,096]

Homasho... homma ni???

Anyone got him right at GTB?

I bet somebody did. I was out by 5 ranks though...

Edit: 42/42 points in the first half, 19/42 in the second, and Homasho's far from the only reason.

Edited April 23, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,031]

I'm not going to say that I predicted Homasho at m7 on my "official" prediction*, but I'm totally not surprised to see him there. The only other data point for 14-1 from J2 is up to m10 (with the same number of maegashira as this banzuke), and I put him at m11 due to space issues, but I had a nagging feeling he'd be back up at m7 because that's where he was ranked for the January Basho that he did not compete in. He clearly showed he totally dominates down in Juryo, so they just decided to put him back where he had previously been ranked.

I was going back and forth on Sadanoumi vs. Azumaryu for m17e, as the data showed it was just as likely to promote in Sadanoumi's position as it was for Arawashi but demoting Azumaryu seemed a bit steep. There were demotions to Juryo from his position in the past, but the sample of them I looked at didn't have as many Maegashiras and most were to J1; with how much it was a stretch to promote Sadanoumi (1 in 39 I think previously), it didn't seem more likely to happen than not.

The biggest other mistake I had was Takanoiwa at m9w, and I'm really confused about where he ended up as no one previously has been promoted so few spaces up the banzuke in his situation. He didn't fight any sankyaku or top 3 maegashira, but he did have wins against an m6, both m8s and an m9. Perhaps the officials thought he didn't look very impressive in his wins?

*Got interested in sumo just last week, missed the deadline for the GTB competition.

[I am the Yokozuna 188]

Other than Sadanoumi's, I am surprised with Chiyonokuni's promotion as well. Really like the guy but feel he needs to adapt a bit of his style to stay a bit longer in the higher division and get hatakikomi'd every other bout by more experienced and skillful rikishis.

Chiyootori's promotion in sanyaku, for me, might liberate Chiyotairyu from all the pressure put on him to become sanyaku and then get married. Hopefully, he would get motivated a bit to achieve higher than his current rank.

I was then thinking how are Kokonoe coping with so many promotion parties. Is there some limit - a party a month or so, or they just do them regardless of how often those happen?

[Asashosakari 19,096]

Endo is in a pretty good position as the #16 guy in the division now. He'll have to face the three (foreign) yokozuna, but he could reasonably be spared some of the (Japanese) ozeki and sekiwake. Good for business, good for Endo's W-L record. Maybe. (That assumes that no high-ranker leaves the basho halfway through, of course.)

One rikishi who really got screwed over on the new banzuke is Chiyoo...J7e 8-7 -> J6e while every other KK rikishi in juryo and high makushita was rewarded with an oversized promotion. Add in that Chiyomaru is the only 8-7 in the low makuuchi crunch area who received only the minimum half-rank promotion, and once again I'm wondering if the Kokonoe rikishi don't have much of a lobby among the shimpan committee right now. (Good thing for Chiyootori that his sanyaku promotion was unavoidable.)

Speaking of which, this basho's "who needs consistency in banzuke-making?" highlight:

M7e Toyohibiki 6-9 -> M11e

M12e Chiyomaru 8-7 -> M11w

M9e Kitataiki 6-9 -> M13w

M14w Masunoyama 8-7 -> M13e

Edited April 24, 2014 by Asashosakari

[kuroimori 1,634]

I guess Takanoiwa isn't too amused about the new banzuke.

[Asashosakari 19,096]

I guess Takanoiwa isn't too amused about the new banzuke.

There were 3 rikishi that could have been placed at M12e - Homasho, Toyohibiki and Takanoiwa. They arguably picked the one that made the least sense. Maybe there's some shimpan pushback against deshi of former shimpan-bucho? (Would also account for Kokonoe...)

Edit: On the other hand, as usual at least one deshi of a current shimpan-bucho (Kagamiyama's Kagamio) got awfully lucky. Will be interesting to see where Kagamio and Shohozan ends up after future banzuke sessions now that their his shisho are is out of the committee.

Editedit: Meh, Matsugane of course already left the committee a year ago. Duly edited.

Edited April 24, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Pikenoyama 27]

With Yoshikaze finally being promoted to Komusubi for his 48th Makuuchi basho, Toyohibiki has become the most experienced maegashira rikishi with no sanyaku appearance with 38 basho in Makuuchi. He is followed by Tamawashi (29 basho) and Kitataiki (28 basho).

[Jakusotsu 5,892]

With Yoshikaze finally being promoted to Komusubi for his 48th Makuuchi basho, Toyohibiki has become the most experienced maegashira rikishi with no sanyaku appearance with 38 basho in Makuuchi. He is followed by Tamawashi (29 basho) and Kitataiki (28 basho).

Wow. Tamawashi has 29 Makuuchi basho already? So much for stealth technology...

[Gurowake 4,031]

How much is known about the use of past results that were not entirely reflected upon by the banzuke of the previous tournament? For instance, Takanoiwa's less than impressive rise up this banzuke may partially reflect the fact that he was not demoted at all for his MK in January. Also, how often does the group of people making the banzuke change?

[Kintamayama 44,786]

How much is known about the use of past results that were not entirely reflected upon by the banzuke of the previous tournament? For instance, Takanoiwa's less than impressive rise up this banzuke may partially reflect the fact that he was not demoted at all for his MK in January. Also, how often does the group of people making the banzuke change?

Personally, being the purist I am, I don't believe past stuff or the identity of the Oyakatas that are in charge have any bearing on the dealings. It's just humans trying to piece together a puzzle. That said, no one outside of the circle really knows anything-we can only speculate. The people change every two years after the elections, AFAIK. I think some of them do it for a few years more though. I'm just guessing-better people will know better.

[Asashosakari 19,096]

Also, how often does the group of people making the banzuke change?

Generally after the January->March banzuke session in even-numbered years, though this year it was delayed by one basho; the banzuke-making after the coming tournament will be the first for the new crew. Not many changes this time, however, with only one of the three chiefs being changed and three of the twenty regular members. Normally there's a bit more movement, but they already replaced a lot of people in the shimpan/banzuke group in the last few cycles so the current personnel is probably quite young on average.

(In addition, changes may also occur in the odd-numbered years, but that's typically just one or two spots.)

Personally, being the purist I am, I don't believe past stuff or the identity of the Oyakatas that are in charge have any bearing on the dealings. It's just humans trying to piece together a puzzle.

I agree there's nothing nefarious going on, but I certainly think that they're humans that are prone to the occasional very subjective choice that has little to do with the pure numbers and even less with their "typical" decisions - for instance (as Gurowake already alluded to - welcome BTW!), I'd also be shocked if Homasho's recent history as a joi rikishi didn't play a big role in his very kind treatment, compared to e.g. Chiyootori after Kyushu. That said, I don't have a big problem with it in this case - it's a justifiable decision, and I think Homasho is ranked much more fairly at M7 than at M12 (where my GTB entry had him).

That the specific composition of the shimpan group does play a role can best be seen in makushita, IMHO - the treatment of 4-3 and 5-2 records varies wildly over time, since around mid-2012 they're in a very aggressive period again where 5 wins are treated as much more valuable than 4 wins. (At the same time their treatment of 6-1 records has become completely chaotic.)

Edited April 24, 2014 by Asashosakari

[ALAKTORN 346]

Man, Kyokutenhō will take a beating at M3.

[krindel 671]

Man, Kyokutenhō will take a beating at M3.

He is quite used to it by now, I am sure :).

[Gurowake 4,031]

(At the same time their treatment of 6-1 records has become completely chaotic.)

I have to imagine that strength of schedule plays a very important role in exactly how everything shakes out. I'm not going to look at every single result, but from a small sample of 6 win Ms1 rikishi since 2000, there's a general trend that one received a larger promotion the longer one remained unbeaten. I don't want to bother to calculate exact strengths of schedule either, but given the format in Ms it stands to reason that winning the first 6 bouts will give you on average a tougher schedule than losing the first and winning the rest.

[Ayagawa 14]

Edit: On the other hand, as usual at least one deshi of a current shimpan-bucho (Kagamiyama's Kagamio) got awfully lucky. Will be interesting to see where Kagamio and Shohozan ends up after future banzuke sessions now that their his shisho are is out of the committee.

Editedit: Meh, Matsugane of course already left the committee a year ago. Duly edited.

I couldn't find it... where has this been posted? (Sigh...)

And who are the current/future shimpan directors and vice-directors?

Isegahama and Asahiyama still in?

[Asashosakari 19,096]

I have to imagine that strength of schedule plays a very important role in exactly how everything shakes out. I'm not going to look at every single result, but from a small sample of 6 win Ms1 rikishi since 2000, there's a general trend that one received a larger promotion the longer one remained unbeaten. I don't want to bother to calculate exact strengths of schedule either, but given the format in Ms it stands to reason that winning the first 6 bouts will give you on average a tougher schedule than losing the first and winning the rest.

It's an interesting hypothesis, but in my experience the size of the promotions from makushita into juryo depends almost entirely on the juryo results, i.e. the new promotees simply get slotted in where there's space to do so. Sometimes that's very high (Ichinojo Ms3w->J10w this time), sometimes pretty low (Tochihiryu Ms3w->J13w last year). Both had the same pattern, WLWWWWW.

In any case, I was referring to 6-1 records further down in makushita...for the period of about 2002-2012 the size of their promotions could be predicted with very high accuracy, but lately the actual new rank is often three or more ranks off the expected rank (a pretty big difference), usually with the rikishi ending up lower than he used to. I haven't managed to figure out what exactly they're trying to do since there doesn't seem to be a discernible pattern, all I know is that it's a very strange choice to treat the 6-1's worse at the same time they've started to treat the 5-2's much better.

Edit: And on second thought, I would say that most of the time a high-ranking makushita rikishi who goes WWWWWWL will actually have an easier schedule than somebody who goes LWWWWWW. The rikishi on the early winning streak will be facing several low-ranked opponents, while the one with the opening loss will get high-ranked opponents in every bout.

Edited April 25, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,096]

I couldn't find it... where has this been posted? (Sigh...)

And who are the current/future shimpan directors and vice-directors?

Isegahama and Asahiyama still in?

Isegahama/Asahiyama/Izutsu, the latter replacing Kagamiyama. The previous change was Isegahama replacing Matsugane a year ago.

[krindel 671]

I couldn't find it... where has this been posted? (Sigh...)

And who are the current/future shimpan directors and vice-directors?

Isegahama and Asahiyama still in?

Isegahama/Asahiyama/Izutsu, the latter replacing Kagamiyama. The previous change was Isegahama replacing Matsugane a year ago.

So Isegahama became shimpan after Harumafuji's promotion, and Izutsu after Kakuryu's? Miyagino should protest, I think :-P

[Ayagawa 14]

I couldn't find it... where has this been posted? (Sigh...)

And who are the current/future shimpan directors and vice-directors?

Isegahama and Asahiyama still in?

Isegahama/Asahiyama/Izutsu, the latter replacing Kagamiyama. The previous change was Isegahama replacing Matsugane a year ago.

Thank you! (I am not worthy...)

So, elections are every even year and additionally job reassignments every year (An idea...)

[Gurowake 4,031]

Edit: And on second thought, I would say that most of the time a high-ranking makushita rikishi who goes WWWWWWL will actually have an easier schedule than somebody who goes LWWWWWW. The rikishi on the early winning streak will be facing several low-ranked opponents, while the one with the opening loss will get high-ranked opponents in every bout.

I'm assuming that the reason is that it is much easier to find opponents with 1 loss than it is with 0 losses, and if you're highly ranked there's less room to search above for an opponent. However, the effect of this is only for those who are high-ranked, and I didn't mean to only look at the Ms1 results - they just were the easiest available and they all showed something of the pattern I was looking for. The factor I was thinking of is that someone who has yet to lose is more likely to be under-ranked than someone who has lost a match. Thus, the actual quality of the opponent would be higher even if the ranks of their current opponents are nominally the same. However, I do admit that the overall effect may be slight; feel free to point out even more of my misunderstandings of how things actually work given that I'm kinda new to this and trying to use analysis that comes from other head-to-head tournament games.

[Doitsuyama 1,178]

Homasho... homma ni???

Anyone got him right at GTB?

I bet somebody did. I was out by 5 ranks though...

Yep, Homasho definitely is the best discernible outlier in the GTB selection stats. But he hasn't the least bulls-eye guesses, as Okinoumi and Terunofuji have even fewer. Still, the 7 correct guesses interestingly are a hotspot with very few guesses near the M7e rank, so somehow this rank seems to be a logical choice if you are going for the high promotion route.

[Asashosakari 19,096]

Still, the 7 correct guesses interestingly are a hotspot with very few guesses near the M7e rank, so somehow this rank seems to be a logical choice if you are going for the high promotion route.

It pretty much is; M7e is the rank that partitions both the first (to Kyokutenho) from second (from Tokushoryu) KK block, and the first (to Tamawashi) from the second (from Takayasu) MK block. My choice of M12e is the other hot spot in the selection stats, which I dare say isn't a huge surprise. Edited April 26, 2014 by Asashosakari