Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Natsu 2014

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Welcome to the five-year anniversary of this little game! No, I can't believe it's lasted this long either...

The rikishi are celebrating along with us and providing us with the largest ballot seen in a year. Nearly half of the 17 selections are sekitori, and a couple more have the opportunity to become one with their Natsu performance.

1. Hakuho 43 [score?]

2. Kakuryu 19 [score?]

3. Terunofuji 9

4. Amuru 8

5. Ishiura 7*

6. Onosho 7*

7. Fukuyamato 7*

8. Iwasaki 6

9. Shineiyama 6**

10. Goeido 5 [score?]

11. Arawashi 5

12. Sadanoumi 5

13. Tatsu 5

14. Kotokensei 5

15. Ikeru 5**

16. Itadaki 5

17. Chiyootori 4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut, ** marks rikishi with no makekoshi since re-debut)

(Edit: Shineiyama kyujo)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

- For yokozuna, ozeki and sekiwake: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.

- For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the Y/O/S high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 17 16 guys up there and the further 8 rikishi (4 'veterans' and 4 'rookies') who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 25 24. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Yokozuna, ozeki and sekiwake count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 16 15 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hakuho.

Penultimate tie-breaker, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number.

Final tie-breaker, should two or more players with identical ballots have entered identical tie-breaker guesses as well or be at the same distance from opposite sides: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

Edited May 10, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

5 years?? Blimey! Where has it gone?

Here we go:

1. Hakuho: 13-2

2. Kakuryu: 11-4

3. Terunofuji: Y

4. Amuru: Y

5. Ishiura: Y

6. Onosho: N

7. Fukuyamato: N

8. Iwasaki: N

9. Shineiyama: Y

10. Goeido: 10-5

11. Arawashi: N

12. Sadanoumi: N

13. Tatsu: N

14. Kotokensei: N

15. Ikeru: Y

16. Itadaki: Y

17. Chiyootori: N

TB: 12

I predict I will win the yusho on that elusive final tie-breaker rule! ;)

[Profomisakari 857]

1. Hakuho 13

2. Kakuryu 12

3. Terunofuji y

4. Amuru y

5. Ishiura y

6. Onosho y

7. Fukuyamato n

8. Iwasaki n

9. Shineiyama y

10. Goeido 11

11. Arawashi y

12. Sadanoumi n

13. Tatsu n

14. Kotokensei y

15. Ikeru y

16. Itadaki n

17. Chiyootori n

TB: 13

Profomisakari

Edited May 8, 2014 by Profomisakari

[chishafuwaku 476]

1. Hakuho 13
2. Kakuryu 12
3. Terunofuji yes

4. Amuru yes
5. Ishiura yes
6. Onosho yes
7. Fukuyamato no
8. Iwasaki yes
9. Shineiyama yes
10. Goeido 9
11. Arawashi no
12. Sadanoumi no
13. Tatsu no
14. Kotokensei no
15. Ikeru yes
16. Itadaki yes
17. Chiyootori no

Tb: 15

chishafuwaku

[Asojima 2,874]

1. Hakuho 8

2. Kakuryu 11

3. Terunofuji Y

4. Amuru Y

5. Ishiura N

6. Onosho Y

7. Fukuyamato N

8. Iwasaki N

9. Shineiyama Y

10. Goeido 11

11. Arawashi Y

12. Sadanoumi N

13. Tatsu N

14. Kotokensei N

15. Ikeru N

16. Itadaki Y

17. Chiyootori N

TB: 13

[Gurowake 4,053]

1. Hakuho 12-3

2. Kakuryu 12-3

3. Terunofuji Y

4. Amuru Y

5. Ishiura Y

6. Onosho N

7. Fukuyamato Y

8. Iwasaki Y

9. Shineiyama Y

10. Goeido 10-5

11. Arawashi N

12. Sadanoumi N

13. Tatsu Y

14. Kotokensei N

15. Ikeru N

16. Itadaki N

17. Chiyootori N

TB: 16

[Mmikasazuma 12]

1. Hakuho 12

2. Kakuryu 12

3. Terunofuji Y

4. Amuru Y

5. Ishiura Y

6. Onosho Y

7. Fukuyamato N

8. Iwasaki N

9. Shineiyama Y

10. Goeido 11

11. Arawashi N

12. Sadanoumi N

13. Tatsu N

14. Kotokensei N

15. Ikeru Y

16. Itadaki N

17. Chiyootori N

TB: 14

[Tsubame 361]

1. Hakuho 12-3
2. Kakuryu 13-2
3. Terunofuji KK
4. Amuru MK
5. Ishiura KK
6. Onosho KK
7. Fukuyamato MK
8. Iwasaki KK
9. Shineiyama KK
10. Goeido 9-6
11. Arawashi KK
12. Sadanoumi MK
13. Tatsu MK
14. Kotokensei KK
15. Ikeru KK
16. Itadaki MK
17. Chiyootori MK

TB: 16 15

PS: You put Takagenji in the veteran group and Komatsukasa in the rookie group.

Edited May 10, 2014 by Tsubame

[Asashosakari 19,331]

PS: You put Takagenji in the veteran group and Komatsukasa in the rookie group.

That's why both words are in scare quotes. ;-) They're really the "rikishi who started their streaks after a makekoshi" and "rikishi who started their streaks out of maezumo" groups, but that would be a bit long... It's unfortunate that this means that oldie returnees like Komatsukasa become part of the "rookie" list, but it's impossible to formulate a single DB query that catches all of them so I have to do it like this (and most of the time the rookies will in fact be rookies).

[Holleshoryu 16]

1. Hakuho 14

2. Kakuryu 10

3. Terunofuji y

4. Amuru y

5. Ishiura y

6. Onosho n

7. Fukuyamato n

8. Iwasaki n

9. Shineiyama y

10. Goeido 11

11. Arawashi y

12. Sadanoumi n

13. Tatsu y

14. Kotokensei y

15. Ikeru y

16. Itadaki n

17. Chiyootori n

TB: 14

[ryafuji 814]

1. Hakuho 14

2. Kakuryu 10

3. Terunofuji N

4. Amuru Y

5. Ishiura N

6. Onosho Y

7. Fukuyamato N

8. Iwasaki N

9. Shineiyama Y

10. Goeido 12

11. Arawashi N

12. Sadanoumi N

13. Tatsu Y

14. Kotokensei N

15. Ikeru N

16. Itadaki Y

17. Chiyootori N

TB: 13

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Shineiyama has declared his absence, so he'll be excluded from scoring. Players who picked him for KK (which is everyone), please let me know if you want to change your tiebreaker guess because of this - preferably by a new comment, not by editing your ballot post.

[Vikanohara 171]

14 1. Hakuho
10 2. Kakuryu
KK 3. Terunofuji
mk 4. Amuru
KK 5. Ishiura
KK 6. Onosho
mk 7. Fukuyamato
KK 8. Iwasaki
xx 9. Shineiyama

11 10. Goeido

KK 11. Arawashi

mk 12. Sadanoumi

KK 13. Tatsu

mk 14. Kotokensei

KK 15. Ikeru

mk 16. Itadaki

mk 17. Chiyootori

15 as TB

[Jejima 1,385]

1. Hakuho [14-1]
2. Kakuryu [9-6]
3. Terunofuji KK
4. Amuru KK
5. Ishiura MK
6. Onosho KK
7. Fukuyamato MK
8. Iwasaki MK
10. Goeido [12-3]
11. Arawashi KK
12. Sadanoumi KK
13. Tatsu KK
14. Kotokensei MK
15. Ikeru KK
16. Itadaki MK
17. Chiyootori MK

TB = 14

Edited May 10, 2014 by Jejima

[chishafuwaku 476]

New Tb: 14

chishafuwaku

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

1. Hakuho 13

2. Kakuryu 11

3. Terunofuji n

4. Amuru y

5. Ishiura y

6. Onosho y

7. Fukuyamato n

8. Iwasaki y

9. Shineiyama n

10. Goeido 10

11. Arawashi n

12. Sadanoumi n

13. Tatsu n

14. Kotokensei n

15. Ikeru y

16. Itadaki y

17. Chiyootori n

TB: 12

Edited May 10, 2014 by Doitsuyama

[Fay 1,677]

1. Hakuho 13

2. Kakuryu 14

3. Terunofuji n

4. Amuru n

5. Ishiura y

6. Onosho y

7. Fukuyamato n

8. Iwasaki n

9. Shineiyama n

10. Goeido 11

11. Arawashi n

12. Sadanoumi y

13. Tatsu n

14. Kotokensei n

15. Ikeru n

16. Itadaki n

17. Chiyootori n

TB: 11

[Tsubame 361]

I corrected my TB in my Post.

[Achiyama 1,245]

My picks are:

1. Hakuho 13

2. Kakuryu 12

3. Terunofuji MK

4. Amuru KK

5. Ishiura MK

6. Onosho KK

7. Fukuyamato MK

8. Iwasaki KK

9. Shineiyama OUT

10. Goeido 11

11. Arawashi MK

12. Sadanoumi MK

13. Tatsu MK

14. Kotokensei KK

15. Ikeru KK

16. Itadaki MK

17. Chiyootori MK

TB: 13

[Asashosakari 19,331]

14 Hakuho

11 Kakuryu

- Terunofuji

- Amuru

+ Ishiura

+ Onosho

- Fukuyamato

- Iwasaki

9 Goeido

- Arawashi

- Sadanoumi

- Tatsu

- Kotokensei

+ Ikeru

- Itadaki

- Chiyootori

TB 11

[kuroimori 1,634]

Hakuho 13

Kakuryu 11

Terunofuji MK

Amuru KK

Ishiura MK

Onosho KK

Fukuyamato MK

Iwasaki KK

Goeido 10

Arawashi MK

Sadanoumi MK

Tatsu MK

Kotokensei MK

Ikeru KK

Itadaki KK

Chiyootori MK

TB: 14

[Gurowake 4,053]

Yes, reduce my tiebreaker by one. 16 -> 15.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

A belated welcome, I'm happy to report we have no less than 16 participants this basho, including newcomer Gurowake. (Welcome...)

Player	Haku	Kaku	Teru	Amu	Ishi	Ono	Fuku	Iwa	Goe	Ara	Sada	Tatsu	Koto	Ike	Ita	Chiyo	TB	Cons
Pandaazuma	- (13-2)	- (11-4)	+	+	+	-	-	-	- (10-5)	-	-	-	-	+	+	-	12	1.59
Profomisakari	- (13-2)	+ (12-3)	+	+	+	+	-	-	+ (11-4)	+	-	-	+	+	-	-	13	1.55
chishafuwaku	- (13-2)	+ (12-3)	+	+	+	+	-	+	- (9-6)	-	-	-	-	+	+	-	14	1.47
Asojima	- (8-7)	- (11-4)	+	+	-	+	-	-	+ (11-4)	+	-	-	-	-	+	-	13	1.70
Gurowake	- (12-3)	+ (12-3)	+	+	+	-	+	+	- (10-5)	-	-	+	-	-	-	-	15	2.07
Mmikasazuma	- (12-3)	+ (12-3)	+	+	+	+	-	-	+ (11-4)	-	-	-	-	+	-	-	14	1.29
Tsubame	- (12-3)	+ (13-2)	+	-	+	+	-	+	- (9-6)	+	-	-	+	+	-	-	15	1.78
Holleshoryu	+ (14-1)	- (10-5)	+	+	+	-	-	-	+ (11-4)	+	-	+	+	+	-	-	14	1.91
ryafuji	+ (14-1)	- (10-5)	-	+	-	+	-	-	+ (12-3)	-	-	+	-	-	+	-	13	1.91
Vikanohara	+ (14-1)	- (10-5)	+	-	+	+	-	+	+ (11-4)	+	-	+	-	+	-	-	15	1.78
Jejima	+ (14-1)	- (9-6)	+	+	-	+	-	-	+ (12-3)	+	+	+	-	+	-	-	14	1.91
Doitsuyama	- (13-2)	- (11-4)	-	+	+	+	-	+	- (10-5)	-	-	-	-	+	+	-	12	1.51
Fay	- (13-2)	+ (14-1)	-	-	+	+	-	-	+ (11-4)	-	+	-	-	-	-	-	11	1.91
Achiyama	- (13-2)	+ (12-3)	-	+	-	+	-	+	+ (11-4)	-	-	-	+	+	-	-	13	1.70
Asashosakari	+ (14-1)	- (11-4)	-	-	+	+	-	-	- (9-6)	-	-	-	-	+	-	-	11	1.67
kuroimori	- (13-2)	- (11-4)	-	+	-	+	-	+	- (10-5)	-	-	-	-	+	+	-	14	1.63
[/td]	5:11	7:9	10:6	12:4	11:5	13:3	1:15	7:9	9:7	6:10	2:14	5:11	4:12	12:4	6:10	0:16	[/td2]
Result	+	-	+	+	-	+	-	-	-	-	+	+	+	+	-	-

The interesting ballot is accompanied by equally interesting selections, if I may say so. Starting at the top we've got Hakuho sporting his usual 14-1 target, although like last basho it was a close call between 13 wins (4 down, 12 up) and 14 wins (11 down, 5 up). Shin-yokozuna Kakuryu was selected around the same 12-3 record he had in his tsunatori basho - probably a good target for a yokozuna debut appearance, especially as the 16 players are split nearly down the middle. Lastly, Goeido appears to have dazzled a few folks again with his 12 wins in March, as his target jumped from 9-6 to 11-4, and even at 11 wins he has received a slight majority of up votes.

We've got five more sekitori on the ballot, with Amuru leading the way (at least in the selections) with 12 participants expecting another KK from him. He's followed by Terunofuji, of whom 10 entrants expect continued success. The other trio are all debutants of some type, and it's not a huge surprise to see them considered as underdogs - shin-nyumaku Arawashi did still collect 6 votes of confidence, while his fellow top division rookie Sadanoumi convinced just 2 of us, and new sanyaku Chiyootori even finds himself with an all-negative panel.

A pair of KK streakers is gunning for their juryo debut, and they have receiving somewhat different levels of support - undersized Ishiura is expected to kachikoshi by about two-thirds of the entrants, while a little under half of us think that Iwasaki will take another step towards the paid ranks. The duo of talented youngsters is separated even farther, with Onosho attracting 13 KK votes and Tatsu just 5.

Of the remaining quartet only oft-injured Ikeru has been voted into KK territory for his makushita debut. Surprise streaker Itadaki at least received 6 up votes, while former prospect Kotokensei has got just 4 and new kimarite marvel Fukuyamato even finds himself with just one supporter.

Every number from 11 to 15 was selected multiple times for the tie-breaker, with the majority selecting either 13 or 14. Chances should be pretty high that some players will get to pick up the bonus win this time. The consensus scores (possible range 1.24-2.74) are fairly close together for the most part - newcomer Gurowake has the most unusual ballot at 2.07, followed by a quartet including the usual leader Fay at 1.91, while Mmikasazuma has the most average ballot at 1.29 (voting with the majority on everyone except Kakuryu). Everybody else is found in a narrow range between 1.47 and 1.78. I suspect we're going to have another tight race for the yusho this basho.

Last not least, a look at the ballot agreement scores: The duo of Doitsuyama and kuroimori are the leaders here, sharing nearly their entire ballot - only their Ishiura choice differs. Also notable with just two different selections are Mmikasazuma/Profomisakari and chishafuwaku/Doitsuyama. At the other end of the spectrum we have ryafuji/Tsubame as a runaway duo with just 4 picks in common. Nobody else comes close; next in line are Fay/Holleshoryu, Gurowake/Jejima and Holleshoryu/kuroimori with 6 shared selections apiece.

Edited May 25, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 8:

The first result comes courtesy of Fukuyamato whose arrival in the top sandanme ranks has led to a quick 0-4 makekoshi; it's his career-first MK in his 8th tournament. Everybody bar Gurowake pick up their first point on that result. Later in the day Hakuho became the first sekitori to reach KK territory.

One backup rikishi is also makekoshi already as Azumasho has matched Fukuyamato's 0-4 start and won't be making it onto the ballot for July.

[Asashosakari 19,331]

Day 9:

Kotokensei scored his 4th win today, surprising most of us. On the other hand Itadaki dropped to 1-4 which was a more expected outcome. Another rikishi on the auxiliary list is also makekoshi with veteran Haruzakura.

The 4 players who correctly predicted Kotokensei's kachikoshi also all had Itadaki down for a MK, so they're all in the lead for now:

Day 9: 3/16 Decisions, TB 2-20
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Achiyama	3	13
1	Profomisakari	3	13
3	Holleshoryu	3	14
4	Tsubame	3	15
5	Asashosakari	2	11
5	Fay	2	11
7	Jejima	2	14
7	Mmikasazuma	2	14
9	Vikanohara	2	15
10	Doitsuyama	1	12
10	Pandaazuma	1	12
12	Asojima	1	13
12	ryafuji	1	13
14	chishafuwaku	1	14
14	kuroimori	1	14
16	Gurowake	1	15