Asashosakari 19,331 Posted July 10, 2014 (edited) Nearly 20 rikishi await your powers of prognostication... 1. Hakuho 44 [score?] 2. Kakuryu 20 [score?] 3. Terunofuji 10 4. Amuru 9 5. Onosho 8* 6. Goeido 6 [score?] 7. Sadanoumi 6 8. Tatsu 6 9. Kotokensei 6 10. Ikeru 6** 11. Keitenkai 5 12. Musashikuni 5* 13. Koike 5* 14. Komatsukasa 5** 15. Hiroshima 5** 16. Sotairyu 4 17. Tosayutaka 4 18. Wakanoshima 4 19. Kizenryu 4 TB: [pick?] (* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut, ** marks rikishi with no makekoshi since re-debut) The scoring and thus your game assignment: - For yokozuna, ozeki and sekiwake: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction. - For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction. (For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the Y/O/S high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.) First tie-breaker: From among those 19 guys up there and the further 7 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 26. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Yokozuna, ozeki and sekiwake count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records. Next 18 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hakuho. Penultimate tie-breaker, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number. Final tie-breaker, should two or more players with identical ballots have entered identical tie-breaker guesses as well or be at the same distance from opposite sides: earliest entry. Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker. Deadline: Shonichi noon JST. Edited July 10, 2014 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asojima 2,874 Posted July 10, 2014 1. Hakuho 13-2 2. Kakuryu 11-4 3. Terunofuji KK 4. Amuru MK 5. Onosho KK 6. Goeido 10-5 7. Sadanoumi KK 8. Tatsu MK 9. Kotokensei KK 10. Ikeru MK 11. Keitenkai KK 12. Musashikuni KK 13. Koike MK 14. Komatsukasa MK 15. Hiroshima MK 16. Sotairyu KK 17. Tosayutaka KK 18. Wakanoshima MK 19. Kizenryu KK TIEBREAKER: A paltry 16. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted July 11, 2014 1. Hakuho 14-12. Kakuryu 10-53. Terunofuji KK4. Amuru KK 5. Onosho KK6. Goeido 9-67. Sadanoumi KK8. Tatsu KK9. Kotokensei MK10. Ikeru KK11. Keitenkai KK12. Musashikuni KK13. Koike MK14. Komatsukasa KK15. Hiroshima MK16. Sotairyu MK17. Tosayutaka KK18. Wakanoshima MK19. Kizenryu KK TB 17 chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,053 Posted July 11, 2014 1. Hakuho 13-2 2. Kakuryu 10-5 3. Terunofuji MK 4. Amuru KK 5. Onosho MK 6. Goeido 10-5 7. Sadanoumi MK 8. Tatsu KK 9. Kotokensei MK10. Ikeru KK11. Keitenkai KK12. Musashikuni KK13. Koike MK14. Komatsukasa MK15. Hiroshima KK16. Sotairyu MK17. Tosayutaka KK18. Wakanoshima MK19. Kizenryu MK TB: 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tsukiko 5 Posted July 11, 2014 Hakuho 14 Kakuryu 12 Terunofuji kk Amuru mk Onosho kk Goeido mk Sadanoumi kk Tatsu kk Kotokensei mk Ikeru kk Keitenkai kk Musashikuni mk Koike kk Komatsukasa kk Hiroshima kk Sotairyu mk Tosayutaka kk Wakanoshima kk Kizenryu kk Tiebreaker 18 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mmikasazuma 12 Posted July 11, 2014 1. Hakuho 132. Kakuryu 103. Terunofuji KK4. Amuru KK5. Onosho KK6. Goeido 97. Sadanoumi KK8. Tatsu MK9. Kotokensei KK10. Ikeru KK11. Keitenkai KK12. Musashikuni KK13. Koike MK14. Komatsukasa MK15. Hiroshima MK16. Sotairyu MK17. Tosayutaka KK18. Wakanoshima MK19. Kizenryu KK Tiebreak 17 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Profomisakari 857 Posted July 11, 2014 (edited) 1. Hakuho 14 2. Kakuryu 11 3. Terunofuji KK 4. Amuru KK 5. Onosho KK 6. Goeido 8 7. Sadanoumi KK 8. Tatsu MK 9. Kotokensei MK 10. Ikeru KK 11. Keitenkai KK 12. Musashikuni KK 13. Koike KK 14. Komatsukasa KK 15. Hiroshima MK 16. Sotairyu KK 17. Tosayutaka KK 18. Wakanoshima KK 19. Kizenryu KK TB: 15 Edited July 11, 2014 by Profomisakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tsubame 361 Posted July 11, 2014 Hakuho KK 12-3 Kakuryu KK 14-1 Terunofuji KK Amuru KK Onosho KK Goeido KK 9-6 Sadanoumi KK Tatsu MK Kotokensei MK Ikeru KK Keitenkai KK Musashikuni KK Koike KK Komatsukasa MK Hiroshima MK Sotairyu MK Tosayutaka KK Wakanoshima KK Kizenryu KK TB: 18 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Holleshoryu 16 Posted July 11, 2014 1. Hakuho 14-1 2. Kakuryu 11-4 3. Terunofuji KK 4. Amuru KK 5. Onosho KK 6. Goeido 10-5 7. Sadanoumi MK 8. Tatsu KK 9. Kotokensei MK 10. Ikeru KK 11. Keitenkai KK 12. Musashikuni KK 13. Koike MK 14. Komatsukasa KK 15. Hiroshima MK 16. Sotairyu MK 17. Tosayutaka KK 18. Wakanoshima KK 19. Kizenryu KK TB 16 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kuroimori 1,634 Posted July 12, 2014 Hakuho 13Kakuryu 12Terunofuji mkAmuru kkOnosho kkGoeido 9Sadanoumi mkTatsu mkKotokensei mkIkeru kkKeitenkai kkMusashikuni kkKoike mkKomatsukasa mkHiroshima kkSotairyu mkTosayutaka kkWakanoshima mkKizenryu kkTB 14 Thanks to Asashosakari for providing this game and good luck to all participants! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jejima 1,385 Posted July 12, 2014 1. Hakuho 44 [13-2] 2. Kakuryu 20 [10-5] 3. Terunofuji MK 4. Amuru MK 5. Onosho KK 6. Goeido 6 [8-7] 7. Sadanoumi MK 8. Tatsu KK 9. Kotokensei MK10. Ikeru KK11. Keitenkai KK12. Musashikuni KK13. Koike KK14. Komatsukasa KK15. Hiroshima KK16. Sotairyu KK17. Tosayutaka MK18. Wakanoshima MK19. Kizenryu MKTB: [15] Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pandaazuma 1,310 Posted July 12, 2014 1. Hakuho 13-2 2. Kakuryu 11-4 3. Terunofuji KK 4. Amuru KK 5. Onosho KK 6. Goeido 9-6 7. Sadanoumi KK 8. Tatsu MK 9. Kotokensei KK 10. Ikeru KK 11. Keitenkai KK 12. Musashikuni KK 13. Koike MK 14. Komatsukasa MK 15. Hiroshima MK 16. Sotairyu MK 17. Tosayutaka KK 18. Wakanoshima MK 19. Kizenryu MK Tie-break: 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Doitsuyama 1,185 Posted July 12, 2014 Hakuho 14Kakuryu 11Terunofuji kkAmuru kkOnosho kkGoeido 9Sadanoumi mkTatsu kkKotokensei mkIkeru kkKeitenkai kkMusashikuni kkKoike mkKomatsukasa kkHiroshima mkSotairyu mkTosayutaka mkWakanoshima kkKizenryu mkTB 16 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vikanohara 171 Posted July 12, 2014 Happy to have climbed on the banzuke after what looked to become a bad score until day 14.14 1. Hakuho 10 2. Kakuryumk 3. TerunofujiKK 4. AmuruKK 5. Onosho10 6. Goeidomk 7. Sadanoumimk 8. TatsuKK 9. KotokenseiKK 10. IkeruKK 11. KeitenkaiKK 12. MusashikuniKK 13. KoikeKK 14. Komatsukasamk 15. Hiroshimamk 16. SotairyuKK 17. Tosayutakamk 18. WakanoshimaKK 19. Kizenryu 17 as TB Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,331 Posted July 12, 2014 13 Hakuho 11 Kakuryu - Terunofuji - Amuru + Onosho 9 Goeido - Sadanoumi - Tatsu - Kotokensei - Ikeru + Keitenkai - Musashikuni + Koike - Komatsukasa + Hiroshima - Sotairyu + Tosayutaka - Wakanoshima - Kizenryu TB: 12 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Achiyama 1,245 Posted July 13, 2014 My picks are: 1. Hakuho 14 2. Kakuryu 10 3. Terunofuji MK 4. Amuru MK 5. Onosho KK 6. Goeido 8 7. Sadanoumi MK 8. Tatsu MK 9. Kotokensei MK 10. Ikeru KK 11. Keitenkai KK 12. Musashikuni KK 13. Koike MK 14. Komatsukasa MK 15. Hiroshima MK 16. Sotairyu KK 17. Tosayutaka KK 18. Wakanoshima KK 19. Kizenryu MK TB: 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,053 Posted July 15, 2014 For those interested (like me) in such information before the official update: Break point for Hakuho is at 13/14, with 8/7 entries. Kakuryu - 10/11 with 6/9 Goeido - I don't know. I recall some sort of tie breaker procedure in reading this thread in the past when two break points made equal sense, but I have no clue. 4 entries for 8 or less, 7 for 9, and 4 for 10. Subject to input errors and Excel possibly deciding to randomly change my data. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tsukiko 5 Posted July 16, 2014 If I remember the tiebreaker correctly, it splits based on the number of competitors. If your count is correct, Gurowake, then it should be split at 8/9. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,331 Posted July 20, 2014 (edited) 15 participants this basho, many thanks to all of you. Especially newcomer Tsukiko, welcome! Here are the selection stats: Player Haku Kaku Teru Amu Ono Goe Sada Tat Koto Ike Kei Musa Koi Koma Hiro Sot Tosa Waka Kiz TB Cons Asojima - (13-2) + (11-4) + - + + (10-5) + - + - + + - - - + + - + 16 2.04 chishafuwaku + (14-1) - (10-5) + + + + (9-6) + + - + + + - + - - + - + 17 1.65 Gurowake - (13-2) - (10-5) - + - + (10-5) - + - + + + - - + - + - - 13 2.03 Tsukiko + (14-1) + (12-3) + - + - (7-8) + + - + + - + + + - + + + 18 2.18 Mmikasazuma - (13-2) - (10-5) + + + + (9-6) + - + + + + - - - - + - + 17 1.69 Profomisakari + (14-1) + (11-4) + + + - (8-7) + - - + + + + + - + + + + 15 1.91 Tsubame - (12-3) + (14-1) + + + + (9-6) + - - + + + + - - - + + + 18 1.60 Holleshoryu + (14-1) + (11-4) + + + + (10-5) - + - + + + - + - - + + + 16 1.62 kuroimori - (13-2) + (12-3) - + + + (9-6) - - - + + + - - + - + - + 14 1.62 Jejima - (13-2) - (10-5) - - + - (8-7) - + - + + + + + + + - - - 15 2.35 Pandaazuma - (13-2) + (11-4) + + + + (9-6) + - + + + + - - - - + - - 14 1.69 Doitsuyama + (14-1) + (11-4) + + + + (9-6) - + - + + + - + - - - + - 16 1.89 Vikanohara + (14-1) - (10-5) - + + + (10-5) - - + + + + + + - - + - + 17 1.82 Asashosakari - (13-2) + (11-4) - - + + (9-6) - - - - + - + - + - + - - 12 2.20 Achiyama + (14-1) - (10-5) - - + - (8-7) - - - + + + - - - + + + - 13 2.06 [/td] 7:8 9:6 9:6 10:5 14:1 11:4 7:8 6:9 4:11 13:2 15:0 13:2 6:9 7:8 5:10 4:11 13:2 6:9 9:6 [/td2] Result - + + + + + - + - + + - - - - - + - - The high-ranker targets are as given by Gurowake above, with Hakuho going for 14-1 as usual (though with more optimistic selections than last time), Kakuryu dropping to 11-4 (one win down), and Goeido seeking a 9-6 (two wins down). Indeed the Goeido target could have gone either 9-6 or 10-5, so the tie-breaker based on the tie-breaker selections was applied - their total came out to 231, so with the sum's parity being odd, the odd target was selected. With such a long ballot it would have been a surprise to see no unanimous choice. Former juryo Keitenkai is the one everybody expects to continue his successful return. High approval was also garnered by Onosho (14:1, all except Gurowake), Tosayutaka (13:2, all except Doitsuyama and Jejima), Ikeru (13:2, all except Asashosakari and Asojima) and Musashikuni (13:2, all except Asashosakari and Tsukiko). The quartet of rikishi that join Tosayutaka in juryo are quite the mixed bag, with Amuru (10:5) and Kizenryu (9:6) receiving healthy thumbs-ups, while Sotairyu (4:11) and sekitori rookie Wakanoshima (6:9) are expected to struggle. Only two ballot rikishi occupy the maegashira ranks; Terunofuji (9:6) was greeted with greater optimism than Sadanoumi (7:8) here. Last not least we have 5 more contenders in the non-salaried ranks (besides Keitenkai, Onosho, Ikeru and Musashikuni), all of whom received a majority of MK votes. The tie-breaker appears to be even more of a crapshoot than usual, and every number from 12 to 18 was selected at least once and none of them by more than 3 players. The consensus scores also show quite some divergence this basho: Tsubame narrowly posted the most mainstream ballot, clocking in at 1.60, but another 5 players also made it in below 1.70. Kuroimori at 1.62 did manage to have the fewest disagreements, voting against the majority only on Terunofuji and Hiroshima. On the other end the top spot was grabbed by Jejima at 2.35 (also the most disagreements with 11 slots), followed by Asashosakari at 2.20 and Tsukiko at 2.18. The possible range this basho is 1.45 to 2.94 so we've covered quite some ground. With such varied selections it's a bit surprising that we do have two pairs of players who show strong agreement with one another - they're Doitsuyama/Holleshoryu and Mmikasazuma/Pandaazuma, sharing 17 picks each. Holleshoryu is also involved in the #3 pairing, as he has 16 picks in common with chishafuwaku as well. Most prone to disagreement this basho are Gurowake/Profomisakari with just 6 identical selections. No less than 7 other pairs only show 7-pick agreement; Jejima is involved in more than half of them. Edited July 27, 2014 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,331 Posted July 20, 2014 (edited) Nothing scoring-wise yet - today on Day 8, top-ranked Hakuho became the first ballot rikishi to secure his kachikoshi, but of course he'll still need 6 more for his target record. At the exact opposite end of the game (in the last backup spot) we also have exactly the opposite outcome, as Mienosato (freshly renamed from Mitani) has fallen to the early 0-4 makekoshi and won't make it to 5 straight KK. Edited July 20, 2014 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,331 Posted July 21, 2014 Day 9: The results have started rolling in - big Komatsukasa's return from injury was stopped at 1-4 near his career-high rank (so probably not a major surprise), while talented Tatsu continued his recent surge with his KK-clinching 4th win. And shortly after Kizenryu booked his return to makushita with loss number 8. Kakuryu also reached kachikoshi as the first step towards his target record. All three scoring outcomes were tough predict for us (picks between 9:6 and 6:9), and consequently there's a big spread in the standings already: Day 9: 3/19 Decisions, TB 3-23 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Gurowake 3 13 2 Asashosakari 2 12 3 Achiyama 2 13 4 Pandaazuma 2 14 5 Jejima 2 15 6 Doitsuyama 2 16 7 kuroimori 1 14 8 Asojima 1 16 8 Holleshoryu 1 16 10 chishafuwaku 1 17 10 Mmikasazuma 1 17 12 Tsubame 1 18 12 Tsukiko 1 18 14 Profomisakari 0 15 15 Vikanohara 0 17 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vikanohara 171 Posted July 22, 2014 Let's see if I can make another late comeback. :-) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,331 Posted July 22, 2014 Day 10: After yesterday's trio of closely predicted results we got three lopsiders today, among them the career-first makekoshi for Musashikuni (predicted only by Asashosakari and Tsukiko), and another KK for diminutive Ikeru (not predicted only by Asashosakari and Asojima). Also in makushita the end has come for former prospect Kotokensei's year-long resurgence as he has fallen to 1-4 (another one predicted correctly by the majority). In other news two more backup squadders have dropped to MK in Sasanoyama and Hamakasuga, and sekiwake Goeido secured the early kachikoshi and needs just one win more for his target score. Tsukiko was the only one to pick up all three points, but with just one point yesterday that wasn't enough to join the lead, which continues to be held by Gurowake. Asojima was the day's unfortunate zero-point player and "joins" Vikanohara at the bottom of the standings: Day 10: 6/19 Decisions, TB 5-19 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Gurowake 5 13 2 Asashosakari 4 12 3 Achiyama 4 13 4 Jejima 4 15 5 Doitsuyama 4 16 6 Tsukiko 4 18 7 kuroimori 3 14 7 Pandaazuma 3 14 9 Holleshoryu 3 16 10 chishafuwaku 3 17 11 Tsubame 3 18 12 Profomisakari 2 15 13 Mmikasazuma 2 17 14 Asojima 1 16 15 Vikanohara 1 17 The tie-breaker range has evaporated quickly and will probably continue to do so, as three of the four remaining off-ballot rikishi are only 2-3. I dare say 16 is the absolute most to hope for in the TB. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,331 Posted July 22, 2014 (edited) By the way, as promised last basho the results are now also reflected at the bottom of the selection stats table. Edited July 22, 2014 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,331 Posted July 23, 2014 Day 11: Tosayutaka has scored his 5th straight kachikoshi as of today, and Goeido secured his target-clinching 9th win. Many players picked up both points and Gurowake continues to lead, but somehow the big second-place group has been shrunk to just one player: Day 11: 8/19 Decisions, TB 6-19 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Gurowake 7 13 2 Asashosakari 6 12 3 Achiyama 5 13 4 kuroimori 5 14 4 Pandaazuma 5 14 6 Doitsuyama 5 16 6 Holleshoryu 5 16 8 chishafuwaku 5 17 9 Tsubame 5 18 9 Tsukiko 5 18 11 Jejima 4 15 12 Mmikasazuma 4 17 13 Profomisakari 3 15 14 Asojima 3 16 15 Vikanohara 3 17 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
