Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Natsu 2015

[Asashosakari 19,320]

I was speaking a bit tongue-in-cheek given the henka denials of the Harumafuji fans. But I can appreciate a henka while I know you are offended by it. Which is your right, but I still think the indignation should be addressed to the real culprit--the man who barrels in out of control, hoping to gain an advantage over an opponent who will stand there and take it. Until that sort mindless charge goes away, there should be more henka.

I'm not offended by henka as such (I've defended its use plenty of times), just by the IMHO downright insulting use in this particular matchup. That was either the most blatant case of "I shouldn't need to be competing down here" I've ever seen, or an incredible lack of self-confidence on Ura's part. Edited May 23, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Day 14 (results, text-only results):

11-3 Hakuho Y1 Harumafuji 10-4

kyujo Kakuryu Y2

10-4 Kisenosato O1 Kotoshogiku 6-8

O2 Goeido 8-6

11-3 Terunofuji S

Another loss for Hakuho means we suddenly have a two-way lead for the yusho again (thanks to Terunofuji beating Myogiryu), and potential for the second-ever 11-4 yusho and a playoff with up to 8 participants. Of course, the more likely outcomes are a 12-3 outright yusho for either leader, or a 12-3 playoff between them.

Kisenosato's victory over the dai-yokozuna moved him to double digits and into the pursuit group. However, by the time he faces Kotoshogiku tomorrow, the bout may already be meaningless for both of them in case Terunofuji was successful in the torikumi right before them. For his part, Kotoshogiku is kadoban for the 5th time in his career (and 3rd time in the last 7 tournaments) after losing to yokozuna Harumafuji today, another one who can hope to get into the big 11-4 playoff tomorrow. Ozeki Goeido decided to depart the basho after yesterday's 8th win, probably a smart decision given how banged up he's been all along.

The sanyaku race continues to be one huge mess - both komusubi won today to keep their KK chances alive, while Myogiryu lost the sekiwake battle and has likely opened up a sekiwake slot at the very least. The maegashira-hitto pair Takarafuji and Tochinoshin improved to 8-6 to stake their claim on any slots that may open up. The lower-ranked five contenders didn't have a good day, with all losing except Takayasu who received the Goeido freebie.

S Myogiryu 6-8

7-7 Tochiozan K Ichinojo 7-7

(o) 8-6 Takarafuji M1 Tochinoshin 8-6

M2 Aminishiki 6-8 (x)

7-7 Sadanoumi M3

M4

M5

M6 Aoiyama 9-5

M7

M8 Takayasu 10-4

M9

10-4 Ikioi M10 Okinoumi 9-5 (x)

(x) 10-4 Kaisei M11

Trying to puzzle things apart - Kaisei and Okinoumi are now out of the race as they are behind at least four other contenders. Ikioi's only chance is Terunofuji earning promotion to ozeki; his priority is lower than that of Takarafuji, Tochinoshin and the winner of tomorrow's Myogiryu-Takayasu bout, so he cannot get promoted unless Terunofuji moves up and both komusubi move down. (He'll still need Aoiyama and probably Sadanoumi to lose as well, so it's a major longshot.)

If three slots become available (without a Terunofuji promotion), the third position looks to be a close race between Sadanoumi, Aoiyama and Takayasu, although I would say a kachikoshi Sadanoumi would have the inside track thanks to his full sanyaku schedule.

Additionally, I'm assuming they'll stick to the long-standing habit of promoting a kachikoshi M1 East even if there's no regular space for him, so Takarafuji should be able to celebrate now. Tochinoshin with 8 wins would likely get moved only to the East side if there's no room in sanyaku, while a 9-6 finish ought to be good enough to force an extra promotion as well.

Myogiryu-Takayasu will be the only bout with sanyaku implications for both participants tomorrow. The two komusubi are facing eliminated Okinoumi and Kaisei, while Aoiyama takes the brunt of Goeido's withdrawal and has to battle yusho-chasing Terunofuji.

The M13 pair met two promotion candidates from juryo and both picked up another loss, so they're definitely headed down. Jokoryu lost as well to resurgent Endo and is in tricky territory now. Toyohibiki beat Takanoiwa, leaving both one win short of (mathematical) safety.

The two juryo rikishi pulling exchange duty were Seiro and Chiyotairyu who both improved their chances of promotion. Hidenoumi and Kagamio were victorious, setting up a head-to-head yusho decider between them for tomorrow. Tokitenku also won, but was eliminated from contention anyway.

(x) 1-4-9 Sokokurai M7

...

(x) 2-12 Arawashi M12 Toyohibiki 5-9 (1)

(x) 3-11 Fujiazuma M13 Chiyomaru 3-11 (x)

M14

(~) 5-9 Jokoryu M15

(1) 7-7 Takanoiwa M16

(o) 10-4 Tokitenku J1 Seiro 7-7 (1)

J2 Chiyotairyu 8-6 (1)

(~) 7-7 Asasekiryu J3 Shohozan 5-8 (x)

(~) 8-6 Satoyama J4 Kagayaki 7-7 (x)

(o) 11-3 Hidenoumi J5

J6

(~) 9-5 Daieisho J7

J8

(1) 11-3 Kagamio J9

Things are almost as complicated here now as they are around sanyaku, and the sanyaku situation is partly responsible for that. First things first though - Chiyotairyu may already be safe for a makuuchi return, as he should be at least 5th in line (behind Tokitenku, Hidenoumi, Seiro and Satoyama, and ahead of Kagamio), with 5 demotable maegashira (including Jokoryu). Similarly Toyohibiki and Takanoiwa might well be able to survive even if they lose tomorrow, and Jokoryu might stay with a 6th win.

However, should an expansion of the sanyaku ranks happen (to 11 with a Terunofuji promotion, to 11 or 12 with extra promotions for the M1's), things will look quite a bit different - clearly, e.g. Takanoiwa can't stay with 7-8 from M16e if the next banzuke only goes down to M15w.

With the Goeido withdrawal we're only seeing one exchange bout tomorrow, though I suspect Jokoryu will have a lot more riding on it than his opponent Chiyotairyu does.

(The most stunning development here would probably be Asasekiryu fluking a makuuchi return after more than two years.)

And last not least the juryo<->makushita battles, which saw the exchange bouts go 1-1 today, with Tokushinho dragging Tosayutaka back to makushita, and Shodai failing to beat Akiseyama. The latter is mathematically safe now - and so is youngster Abi. Daishomaru and Wakanoshima lost, however, and still need another win tomorrow.

(~) 4-10 Tamaasuka J6 Shotenro 4-10 (~)

J7 Wakanosato 4-10 (~)

...

J11 Akiseyama 6-8 (~)

(x) 3-11 Dewahayate J12 Daishomaru 6-8 (1)

(~) 7-7 Abi J13

(1) 7-7 Wakanoshima J14 Tosayutaka 6-8 (x)

Ms1 Tokushinho 4-3

Ms2 Shodai 4-3

5-1 Mitakeumi Ms3 Abiko 4-2

3-3 Sakigake Ms4 Kizenryu 4-3

Ms5

...

(o) 7-0 Takagi Ms10

The good news is that the exchange bouts for tomorrow pretty much wrote themselves, as there are two candidates on each side (resulting in Wakanoshima-Abiko and Daishomaru-Sakigake). That's not the end of the story though:

Currently it's not even clear who is going to take the two slots that are already available. Clearly, Takagi takes one of them, but whether it's Mitakeumi or Tokushinho for #2 is anybody's guess. Mitakeumi can of course still make sure of it with a 6th win tomorrow (he faces former maegashira Azumaryu), but I suspect if he loses they'll prefer Tokushinho.

Sakigake can no longer get promoted himself so his juryo bout will "only" determine his chances for the next tournament. Similarly, Abiko may be out of the race as well - when even a 5-2 Mitakeumi is potentially landing behind Tokushinho, it's safe to say that 5-2 Abiko is even more likely to end up behind the big guy, so an Abiko win tomorrow will probably benefit Tokushinho/Mitakeumi instead, and Abiko himself will have to hope that Sakigake also wins (opening up 4 slots). Additionally, in the standard scenario Shodai already cannot be promoted since he's either #4 in line with 2 or 3 slots, or #5 with 4 slots.

However, the situation here is quite similar to two years ago, when an abundance of rikishi with strong promotion claims caused them to overdemote three juryo rikishi to make room (the first time it had happened in over 10 years). That's potentially bad news for quite a few incumbents as you can see in the expanded table above; everybody marked with ~ could become a victim of the banzuke dynamics.

Edited May 23, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,052]

I wouldn't be surprised if Wakanosato-Akiseyama is an elimination bout, and Shotenro-Tamaasuka might be as well depending on how things go. It's definitely far from settled and we probably won't know until the announcement is made a few days later.

Edited May 23, 2015 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,052]

Trying to puzzle things apart - Kaisei and Okinoumi are now out of the race as they are behind at least four other contenders. Ikioi's only chance is Terunofuji earning promotion to ozeki; his priority is lower than that of Takarafuji, Tochinoshin and the winner of tomorrow's Myogiryu-Takayasu bout, so he cannot get promoted unless Terunofuji moves up and both komusubi move down. (He'll still need Aoiyama and probably Sadanoumi to lose as well, so it's a major longshot.)

Not that it makes much of a difference, but Aoiyama will almost certainly have lost if Terunofuji gets promoted to Ozeki.

[Sumozumo 240]

Is Chiyootori completely safe? Goeido dropped from there with a 0 wins effort in 2010. I'm curious, especially if some maegashira ranks disappear.

[krindel 671]

Is Chiyootori completely safe? Goeido dropped from there with a 0 wins effort in 2010. I'm curious, especially if some maegashira ranks disappear.

Have no idea about Chiyootori's chances, but Goeido was suspended in 2010, not injured. I am sure that the "punishment factor" played a little part in his case.

Edited May 23, 2015 by krindel

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Is Chiyootori completely safe? Goeido dropped from there with a 0 wins effort in 2010. I'm curious, especially if some maegashira ranks disappear.

With the abundance of other demotable rikishi I can't conceive of any scenario where they'd need to drop him, and he didn't sit out the basho completely which usually means a bit of lenience compared to a full 0-0-15.

[Doitsuyama 1,185]

I was speaking a bit tongue-in-cheek given the henka denials of the Harumafuji fans. But I can appreciate a henka while I know you are offended by it. Which is your right, but I still think the indignation should be addressed to the real culprit--the man who barrels in out of control, hoping to gain an advantage over an opponent who will stand there and take it. Until that sort mindless charge goes away, there should be more henka.

I'm not offended by henka as such (I've defended its use plenty of times), just by the IMHO downright insulting use in this particular matchup. That was either the most blatant case of "I shouldn't need to be competing down here" I've ever seen, or an incredible lack of self-confidence on Ura's part.

I see it more like Ura's normal tachi-ai... He usually just doesn't want to attack at the start and relies on his (incredible) defensive skills. I think especially against a clearly inferior oppnent going for the yusho he didn't want to make a risk and went for what he does best. You can't say that this didn't work out perfectly well, so I can't blame him. It will indeed be interesting to see him in higher divisions, similar to Ishiura.

[Gurowake 4,052]

Is Chiyootori completely safe? Goeido dropped from there with a 0 wins effort in 2010. I'm curious, especially if some maegashira ranks disappear.

With the abundance of other demotable rikishi I can't conceive of any scenario where they'd need to drop him, and he didn't sit out the basho completely which usually means a bit of lenience compared to a full 0-0-15.

While I agree that with all the other demotable rikishi he'll be spared, he didn't exactly do much. All he did was fall down when Osunaarashi hit him.

[Asashosakari 19,320]

I see it more like Ura's normal tachi-ai... He usually just doesn't want to attack at the start and relies on his (incredible) defensive skills. I think especially against a clearly inferior oppnent going for the yusho he didn't want to make a risk and went for what he does best. You can't say that this didn't work out perfectly well, so I can't blame him. It will indeed be interesting to see him in higher divisions, similar to Ishiura.

Ishiura is a model of controlled aggression compared to that, though. The term "one trick pony" was already mentioned above - IMHO, trying to be tricky in every bout is just another kind of onetrickponyness. (Takanoyama in his last year or two comes to mind.) I don't expect small-sized rikishi to be reckless and storm into every tachiai yelling "Geronimo!", but there's a time and place for everything - and if he can't get himself to go head-on down in freakin' jonokuchi, what's it going to look like when the going gets a little tougher? If he insists on performing like a past-his-prime Furuichi, I won't have to worry about what he'll do against Gochozan and Kitaharima, because he won't be going that far up.

Unfortunately, Kise-oyakata doesn't strike me as a shisho who's particularly good at getting his deshi to break with bad habits.

Edited May 23, 2015 by Asashosakari

[lackmaker 437]

I believe the banzuke would have a better balanced look if once Terunofuji is promoted Kotoshogiku lost his position. Although its a shame he has struggled as an ozeki for sometime now.

[Washuyama 641]

and potential for the second-ever 11-4 yusho and a playoff with up to 8 participants.

It would've been the third (2nd w/playoff). Tochiazuma (the father) won his yusho outright with an 11-4 . http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_wins=11&form1_losses=4&form1_y=on&form1_m=on

(Not trying to be picky... I just remember the '72 Hatsu basho being called "the worst basho ever.")

Edited May 24, 2015 by Washuyama

[lackmaker 437]

Terunofuji's promotion opens up a much needed sanyaku position. Does it also also leave nowhere for Takanoiwa to drop to and stay in the top division?

[Shikona 148]

I see it more like Ura's normal tachi-ai... He usually just doesn't want to attack at the start and relies on his (incredible) defensive skills. I think especially against a clearly inferior oppnent going for the yusho he didn't want to make a risk and went for what he does best. You can't say that this didn't work out perfectly well, so I can't blame him. It will indeed be interesting to see him in higher divisions, similar to Ishiura.

Ishiura is a model of controlled aggression compared to that, though. The term "one trick pony" was already mentioned above - IMHO, trying to be tricky in every bout is just another kind of onetrickponyness. (Takanoyama in his last year or two comes to mind.) I don't expect small-sized rikishi to be reckless and storm into every tachiai yelling "Geronimo!", but there's a time and place for everything - and if he can't get himself to go head-on down in freakin' jonokuchi, what's it going to look like when the going gets a little tougher? If he insists on performing like a past-his-prime Furuichi, I won't have to worry about what he'll do against Gochozan and Kitaharima, because he won't be going that far up.

Unfortunately, Kise-oyakata doesn't strike me as a shisho who's particularly good at getting his deshi to break with bad habits.

It's not a failure of will at all--just appropriate tactics based on what the opponent is doing. How can you watch his opponent go flying off the dohyo under his own power and not see it as a smart move? Yes, it's a too easy end to a match, but the fault is in the guy doing the Geronimo tachi-ai, not the henka. Even if everyone does the Geronimo, what is the big entertainment value in someone getting knocked off the dohyo in three seconds, or knocked out in one? .

Bad habit?? So many careers are wrecked or limited by injuries. Someone should start to wise up.

[botev1921 33]

Is it reasonable to expect the following banzuke:

Kisenosato O Terunofuji

Goeido O Kotoshogiku

Tochiozan S Ichinojo

Takarafuji K Tochinoshin

Miogiryu M1 Sadanoumi

Aoiyama M2 Takayasu

Ikioi M3 Kaisei

...and so on or might actually see Miogiryu stay at Komusubi at the expense of Tochinoshin?

[Gurowake 4,052]

There are plenty of Sekiwake that have gotten 7 wins and ended up in the second row of Komusubi. There are some that have ended up as M1 as well, but neither of these things have happened in the last 15 years, so who knows? It is possible that they drop Myogiryu to M1, but they pretty much have to promote Tochinoshin to Komusubi.

[Kaiomitsuki 408]

Is it reasonable to expect the following banzuke:

Kisenosato O Terunofuji

Goeido O Kotoshogiku

Tochiozan S Ichinojo

Takarafuji K Tochinoshin

Miogiryu M1 Sadanoumi

Aoiyama M2 Takayasu

Ikioi M3 Kaisei

I didn't know that the three Yokozunas are Intai ! Congratulations to Kisenosato at the top of the next banzuke ;)

I don't think that Terunofuji will be O1W.... and I don't believe that Aoiyama will be M2E

[Kaiomitsuki 408]

It is possible that they drop Myogiryu to M1, but they pretty much have to promote Tochinoshin to Komusubi.

Day 7 and Day 8, Myogiryu lost against Takarafuji and Tochinoshin.... but I don't know If It's don't matter for the Banzuke Makers....

[dingo 1,263]

I see it more like Ura's normal tachi-ai... He usually just doesn't want to attack at the start and relies on his (incredible) defensive skills. I think especially against a clearly inferior oppnent going for the yusho he didn't want to make a risk and went for what he does best. You can't say that this didn't work out perfectly well, so I can't blame him. It will indeed be interesting to see him in higher divisions, similar to Ishiura.

Ishiura is a model of controlled aggression compared to that, though. The term "one trick pony" was already mentioned above - IMHO, trying to be tricky in every bout is just another kind of onetrickponyness. (Takanoyama in his last year or two comes to mind.) I don't expect small-sized rikishi to be reckless and storm into every tachiai yelling "Geronimo!", but there's a time and place for everything - and if he can't get himself to go head-on down in freakin' jonokuchi, what's it going to look like when the going gets a little tougher? If he insists on performing like a past-his-prime Furuichi, I won't have to worry about what he'll do against Gochozan and Kitaharima, because he won't be going that far up.

Unfortunately, Kise-oyakata doesn't strike me as a shisho who's particularly good at getting his deshi to break with bad habits.

That doesn't really make sense. It's like saying Mainoumi was a one-trick-pony because he was tricky in so many bouts. Takanoyama is a totally different case because his modus operandi was grabbing the opponents arm and then playing tottari carousel. So there's a difference in trying to use a lot of different tricks versus falling back on the same one over and over again.

[Asashosakari 19,320]

That doesn't really make sense. It's like saying Mainoumi was a one-trick-pony because he was tricky in so many bouts. Takanoyama is a totally different case because his modus operandi was grabbing the opponents arm and then playing tottari carousel. So there's a difference in trying to use a lot of different tricks versus falling back on the same one over and over again.

The comment was in the context of tachiai trickery specifically, hence the comparison to Takanoyama. I'm not talking about simply having a varied offensive arsenal.

It's not a failure of will at all--just appropriate tactics based on what the opponent is doing. How can you watch his opponent go flying off the dohyo under his own power and not see it as a smart move? Yes, it's a too easy end to a match, but the fault is in the guy doing the Geronimo tachi-ai, not the henka. Even if everyone does the Geronimo, what is the big entertainment value in someone getting knocked off the dohyo in three seconds, or knocked out in one? .

Bad habit?? So many careers are wrecked or limited by injuries. Someone should start to wise up.

Sumo is a professional sport and needs to be mindful of what the paying audience wants and expects to see. I'm fairly sure that expectation doesn't include an abundance of tachiai trickery for most of them, especially not in bouts that don't fall into the "small underdog versus large favourite" class.

And it doesn't matter at all how smart of a move it is or isn't; what I was saying is that there are situations where it's simply a jerk move. Clearly that's a case of YMMV, though.

Edit: If somebody had told me five years ago it would eventually fall to me to argue against the "winning is all that matters" point of view on here, I'd have called them nuts.

Edited May 24, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Shikona 148]

To reassure you, you are not arguing against "winning is all that matters," you are arguing for "tachi-ai is all that matters." From what I can judge of fan reaction, they like to see a prolonged, evenly matched effort, with the wrestlers going for grips and throws. Henka can be unsatisfying, if the opponent is doing the too prevalent mindless charge. But the mindless charge can be equally unsatisfying if it results in a quick bout by knocking down or out another wrestler (a little more of an "Ooo!" factor, perhaps--there's a bit of the WWE fan in all of us, impressed by blood and pain). The forearm smash from Hakuho or Osunaarashi, or Harumafuji's face slaps (thankfully not much seen this basho) are also unsatisfying--nothing to do with wrestling or technique, just an attempt to win by shortcut.

[Shikona 148]

Is it reasonable to expect the following banzuke:

Kisenosato O Terunofuji

Goeido O Kotoshogiku

Tochiozan S Ichinojo

Takarafuji K Tochinoshin

Miogiryu M1 Sadanoumi

Aoiyama M2 Takayasu

Ikioi M3 Kaisei

...and so on or might actually see Miogiryu stay at Komusubi at the expense of Tochinoshin?

That last might not be necessary. It hasn't happened in 15 years (assuming I'm doing the query correctly), but it's not unknown to have three at Komosubi.

[Gurowake 4,052]

Looking things over, it appears Satoyama will get a slightly lucky return to Makuuchi along with the others who have normal numbers for promotion. Daieisho would be next in line if they decide to drop Chiyootori, but given the historical record that seems doubtful without a full-promotee replacement. Takanoiwa falls victim to his spot on the banzuke that he could theoretically be maintained at likely disappearing given the addition of both M1s to sanyaku and no demotions. They could demote Myogiryu to M1 and leave Takanoiwa as M16e and thus not promote Satoyama. It seems really odd that the decision on who to include in the sanyaku has implications for Juryo->Makuuchi promotion. GTB will be extra, extra interesting this time around.

Abiko looks to have another KK in the Ms joi without a promotion. Tokushinho, Mitakeumi, and Takagi are clear promotees to replace Dewahayate, Tosayutaka, and Daishomaru, and I would guess they'll drop Akiseyama for Shodai as well. If they do promote Abiko, it would look to be at the expense of Shotenro. I haven't looked at how the top of Makushita will be in full yet, but there definitely might be very small promotions in the works yet again for the 4-3s. All I can say is that if they wanted a bigger promotion, they should have won more matches.

Edited May 24, 2015 by Gurowake

[Asameshimae 220]

If this was talked about, apologies.

Who gets the West Ozeki 2 slot - the up and comer Teru or the kadoban Shogiku? My guess is Teru.

Easy question for those who live and breathe sumo I guess. I live and breathe sumo, but I never inhaled...

[botev1921 33]

Is it reasonable to expect the following banzuke:

Kisenosato O Terunofuji

Goeido O Kotoshogiku

Tochiozan S Ichinojo

Takarafuji K Tochinoshin

Miogiryu M1 Sadanoumi

Aoiyama M2 Takayasu

Ikioi M3 Kaisei

I didn't know that the three Yokozunas are Intai ! Congratulations to Kisenosato at the top of the next banzuke ;)

I don't think that Terunofuji will be O1W.... and I don't believe that Aoiyama will be M2E

There was no point in stating the obvious so I just skipped them as they are not going anywhere right now. I wonder if you don't see yusho winning Teru at O1W, which of Goeido and Giku you consider more worthy of being O1W. Both are one of the most miserable Ozeki in history, have not won a single yusho and have not won more than 9 in a year or so. As for Aoiyama, not that I am impartial but in my books 9-6 from M6W is kind of more than 10-5 from M8W...apart from Takayasu I see nobody else really worthy of being M2E.