Asashosakari 19,320 Posted March 11, 2016 Long ballot is looong... Welcome to what might be the biggest LKS edition ever! 10 sekitori and 10 lower-rankers await your predictions: 1. Kisenosato 12 [score?] 2. Shodai 11* 3. Chiyonokuni 6 4. Chiyoshoma 6 5. Iwasaki 6* 6. Omoto 6* 7. Rikito 6 8. Yoshikaze 5 [score?] 9. Kotoyuki 5 10. Ura 5* 11. Daiki 5* 12. Yamaguchi 5 13. Koshinishiki 5 14. Hirotsukasa 5* 15. Kirinoryu 5 16. Inoue 5* 17. Kakuryu 4 [score?] 18. Kotoshogiku 4 [score?] 19. Sokokurai 4 20. Akiseyama 4 TB: [pick?] (* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut) The scoring and thus your game assignment: - For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction. - For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction. (For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.) First tie-breaker: From among those 20 guys up there and the further 5 rikishi (4 'veterans' and 1 newcomer) who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 25. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records. Next 19 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Kisenosato. Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order). Final tie-breaker: earliest entry. Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker. Deadline: Shonichi noon JST. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Profomisakari 857 Posted March 11, 2016 1. Kisenosato 10 2. Shodai kk 3. Chiyonokuni kk 4. Chiyoshoma kk 5. Iwasaki kk 6. Omoto kk 7. Rikito mk 8. Yoshikaze 8 9. Kotoyuki kk10. Ura kk11. Daiki kk12. Yamaguchi kk13. Koshinishiki kk14. Hirotsukasa kk15. Kirinoryu mk16. Inoue kk17. Kakuryu 1118. Kotoshogiku 1219. Sokokurai mk20. Akiseyama mk TB: 17 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mmikasazuma 12 Posted March 11, 2016 (edited) Kisenosato 10 Shodai KK Chiyonokuni KK Chiyoshoma KK Iwasaki KK Omato MK Rikito MK Yoshikaze 8 Kotoyuki MK Ura KK Daiki KK Yamaguchi KK Koshinishiki MK Hirotsukasa KK Kirinoryu KK Inoue KK Kakuryu 10 Kotoshogiku 12 Sokokurai MK Akiseyama MK TB 16 Edited March 11, 2016 by Mmikasazuma Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ryoshishokunin 288 Posted March 11, 2016 10 kk kk mk kk kk mk 8 mk kk kk kk kk kk mk kk 10 9 mk mk 16 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tsubame 361 Posted March 11, 2016 Kisenosato 11-4 Shodai KK Chiyonokuni KK Chiyoshoma MK Iwasaki KK Omoto KK Rikito MK Yoshikaze 9-6 Kotoyuki MK Ura KK Daiki KK Yamaguchi KK Koshinishiki KK Hirotsukasa KK Kirinoryu KK Inoue MK Kakuryu 11-4 Kotoshogiku 8-7 Sokokurai MK Akiseyama MK TB: 16 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tenshinhan 1,607 Posted March 11, 2016 (edited) 1. Kisenosato 10-5 2. Shodai KK 3. Chiyonokuni KK 4. Chiyoshoma KK 5. Iwasaki KK 6. Omoto KK 7. Rikito mk 8. Yoshikaze mk 9. Kotoyuki mk10. Ura KK11. Daiki KK12. Yamaguchi mk13. Koshinishiki mk14. Hirotsukasa KK15. Kirinoryu mk16. Inoue KK17. Kakuryu 11-418. Kotoshogiku 9-619. Sokokurai mk20. Akiseyama mkTB: 14 Edited March 12, 2016 by Tenshinhan Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Achiyama 1,245 Posted March 11, 2016 (edited) 1. Kisenosato 10-5 2. Shodai KK 3. Chiyonokuni KK 4. Chiyoshoma MK 5. Iwasaki KK 6. Omoto KK 7. Rikito MK 8. Yoshikaze MK 9. Kotoyuki MK 10. Ura KK 11. Daiki KK 12. Yamaguchi KK 13. Koshinishiki MK 14. Hirotsukasa KK 15. Kirinoryu MK 16. Inoue KK 17. Kakuryu 10-5 18. Kotoshogiku 12-3 19. Sokokurai MK 20. Akiseyama MK TB: 14 Edited March 12, 2016 by Achiyama Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted March 12, 2016 1. Kisenosato 10-5 2. Shodai KK 3. Chiyonokuni KK 4. Chiyoshoma MK 5. Iwasaki MK 6. Omoto KK 7. Rikito MK 8. Yoshikaze 8-7 9. Kotoyuki KK 10. Ura KK 11. Daiki KK 12. Yamaguchi KK 13. Koshinishiki MK 14. Hirotsukasa KK 15. Kirinoryu MK 16. Inoue MK 17. Kakuryu 10-5 18. Kotoshogiku 10-5 19. Sokokurai MK 20. Akiseyama MK TB: 13 chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,052 Posted March 12, 2016 1. Kisenosato 10 2. Shodai + 3. Chiyonokuni + 4. Chiyoshoma - 5. Iwasaki + 6. Omoto + 7. Rikito - 8. Yoshikaze - 9. Kotoyuki -10. Ura +11. Daiki +12. Yamaguchi -13. Koshinishiki -14. Hirotsukasa +15. Kirinoryu -16. Inoue +17. Kakuryu 10 18. Kotoshogiku 9 19. Sokokurai -20. Akiseyama - TB: 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jejima 1,384 Posted March 12, 2016 1. Kisenosato 9-6 2. Shodai KK 3. Chiyonokuni KK 4. Chiyoshoma MK 5. Iwasaki KK 6. Omoto KK 7. Rikito KK 8. Yoshikaze 8-7 9. Kotoyuki MK10. Ura KK11. Daiki KK12. Yamaguchi KK13. Koshinishiki MK14. Hirotsukasa KK15. Kirinoryu MK16. Inoue MK17. Kakuryu 11-418. Kotoshogiku 12-319. Sokokurai MK20. Akiseyama MKTB: 15 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Suwihuto 125 Posted March 12, 2016 1. Kisenosato 9 2. Shodai MK 3. Chiyonokuni KK 4. Chiyoshoma MK 5. Iwasaki MK 6. Omoto KK 7. Rikito KK 8. Yoshikaze 9 9. Kotoyuki MK10. Ura KK11. Daiki MK12. Yamaguchi KK13. Koshinishiki KK14. Hirotsukasa MK15. Kirinoryu KK16. Inoue KK17. Kakuryu 1118. Kotoshogiku 1219. Sokokurai MK20. Akiseyama KKTB: 15 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,052 Posted March 12, 2016 Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker. Chiyonoumi, on the tiebreak list, is kyujo for Day 1. This was factored into my TB; I'm not sure about others since the kyujo list was released. Those who entered before it was may wish to reconsider their tiebreaker. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pandaazuma 1,310 Posted March 12, 2016 Kisenosato 10-5 Shodai KK Chiyonokuni KK Chiyoshoma MK Iwasaki MK Omoto KK Rikito MK Yoshikaze MK Kotoyuki MK Ura KK Daiki KK Yamaguchi KK Koshinishiki MK Hirotsukasa KK Kirinoryu MK Inoue KK Kakuryu 10-5 Kotoshogiku 9-6 Sokokurai MK Akiseyama MK TB: 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted March 12, 2016 Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker. Chiyonoumi, on the tiebreak list, is kyujo for Day 1. This was factored into my TB; I'm not sure about others since the kyujo list was released. Those who entered before it was may wish to reconsider their tiebreaker. New TB 12 chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kuroimori 1,634 Posted March 12, 2016 Kisenosato 10 Shodai KK Chiyonokuni KK Chiyoshoma MK Iwasaki KK Omoto KK Rikito MK Yoshikaze 7 Kotoyuki MK Ura KK Daiki KK Yamaguchi KK Koshinishiki MK Hirotsukasa KK Kirinoryu MK Inoue KK Kakuryu 10 Kotoshogiku 10 Sokokurai MK Akiseyama MK TB 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,320 Posted March 13, 2016 10 Kisenosato + Shodai + Chiyonokuni + Chiyoshoma + Iwasaki + Omoto - Rikito 8 Yoshikaze - Kotoyuki + Ura + Daiki + Yamaguchi - Koshinishiki + Hirotsukasa - Kirinoryu + Inoue 10 Kakuryu 10 Kotoshogiku - Sokokurai - Akiseyama TB 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,320 Posted March 26, 2016 (edited) Selection stats: Player 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 TB Cons Profomisakari + (10-5) + + + + + - + (8-7) + + + + + + - + + (11-4) + (12-3) - - 17 1.62 Mmikasazuma + (10-5) + + + + - - + (8-7) - + + + - + + + - (10-5) + (12-3) - - 16 1.64 Ryoshishokunin + (10-5) + + - + + - + (8-7) - + + + + + - + - (10-5) - (9-6) - - 16 1.24 Tsubame + (11-4) + + - + + - + (9-6) - + + + + + + - + (11-4) - (8-7) - - 16 1.69 Tenshinhan + (10-5) + + + + + - - (MK) - + + - - + - + + (11-4) - (9-6) - - 14 1.64 Achiyama + (10-5) + + - + + - - (MK) - + + + - + - + - (10-5) + (12-3) - - 14 1.07 chishafuwaku + (10-5) + + - - + - + (8-7) + + + + - + - - - (10-5) + (10-5) - - 12 1.64 Gurowake + (10-5) + + - + + - - (MK) - + + - - + - + - (10-5) - (9-6) - - 13 1.44 Jejima - (9-6) + + - + + + + (8-7) - + + + - + - - + (11-4) + (12-3) - - 15 1.75 Suwihuto - (9-6) - + - - + + + (9-6) - + - + + - + + + (11-4) + (12-3) - + 15 2.72 Pandaazuma + (10-5) + + - - + - - (MK) - + + + - + - + - (10-5) - (9-6) - - 14 1.38 kuroimori + (10-5) + + - + + - - (MK) - + + + - + - + - (10-5) + (10-5) - - 14 1.07 Asashosakari + (10-5) + + + + + - + (8-7) - + + + - + - + - (10-5) + (10-5) - - 14 1.14 [/td] 11:2 12:1 13:0 4:9 10:3 12:1 2:11 8:5 2:11 13:0 12:1 11:2 4:9 12:1 3:10 10:3 5:8 8:5 0:13 1:12 ballot rikishi tiebreak rikishi Edited March 26, 2016 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,320 Posted March 26, 2016 (edited) Standings after Day 13: Day 13: 18/20 Decisions, TB 13-14 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Achiyama 13 14 1 Asashosakari 13 14 1 kuroimori 13 14 4 chishafuwaku 13 12 4 Mmikasazuma 13 16 6 Gurowake 12 13 7 Pandaazuma 12 14 7 Tenshinhan 12 14 9 Jejima 12 15 9 Profomisakari 12 17 11 Ryoshishokunin 11 16 12 Tsubame 10 16 13 Suwihuto 4 15 Two selections still remain to be decided, but one of them is unanimous Chiyonokuni, so the yusho will come down to whether Kotoshogiku can achieve his 10-5 target record. Chiyonokuni's finish may still become important via the tiebreaker total (13 or 14), though. All five leaders have the positive vote for Kotoshogiku, while three pursuers predicted below 10-5 (Gurowake, Pandaazuma, Tenshinhan), so they still have a chance of catching up. Edited March 26, 2016 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,320 Posted March 26, 2016 (edited) Day 14: And we're done here a day early after Kotoshogiku failed to progress towards his 10-5 target and Chiyonokuni secured his kachikoshi. That gives us an eight-way tie for the lead on 14 points...yikes. Fortunately the tie-breaker choice immediately whittles that down to 5 players who correctly predicted the TB total of 14. We go to the bracket playoff: - All five players have identical picks for the first three slots (Kisenosato, Shodai, Chiyonokuni). - Slot 4 (Chiyoshoma) sees Achiyama, kuroimori and Pandaazuma eliminated as they failed to predict his kachikoshi. - We're left with Asashosakari and Tenshinhan, who proceed to be tied through to slot 7. - Yoshikaze in slot 8 finally brings the decision in favour of our yusho winner, Tenshinhan! It's Tenshinhan's first yusho after two previous near-misses where bracket playoffs went against him. Final standings: Day 15: 20/20 Decisions, TB 14 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Tenshinhan 14 14 2 Achiyama 14 14 2 Asashosakari 14 14 2 kuroimori 14 14 2 Pandaazuma 14 14 6 chishafuwaku 14 12 6 Gurowake 14 13 6 Mmikasazuma 14 16 9 Jejima 13 15 9 Profomisakari 13 17 9 Ryoshishokunin 13 16 12 Tsubame 12 16 13 Suwihuto 5 15 Who knew that with the most picks ever we'd have some of the least varied scores in history? The lineup for the next basho won't be finalized until tomorrow (two 7-7's may qualify for inclusion), or possibly not until Wednesday's announcement of the juryo promotions (some top makushitans are in the mix). Edited March 26, 2016 by Asashosakari 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,320 Posted March 26, 2016 (edited) Scores for banzuke purposes: Tenshinhan 16 (14+top+tb) Achiyama 16 (14+top+tb) Asashosakari 16 (14+top+tb) kuroimori 16 (14+top+tb) Pandaazuma 16 (14+top+tb) chishafuwaku 15 (14+top) Gurowake 15 (14+top) Mmikasazuma 15 (14+top) Jejima 13 Profomisakari 13 Ryoshishokunin 13 Tsubame 12 Suwihuto 5 Total: 181 / 13 = 13.92 ---> -7 wins These are some wacky scores. Quoting myself from last basho: Hard to decide if that third-place finish should be good enough to maintain Asashosakari's tsunatori from last basho. I'll go ahead and say it does, but the bar for Haru has just been raised to an exceptionally-strong yusho score.Not yusho (even if close), and not exceptionally strong in any case given that huge tied pack of players, so we'll waive that promotion in favour of another extension. Better luck next time, self! Moving on... Meanwhile kuroimori unfortunately got demoted again, but perhaps he'll make himself 3-for-3 in automatic repromotions?It's the first time in 13 cases that a demoted ozeki has posted a converted 9-6 score, which was always a thing I was worried about. Considering this particular 9-6 has even tied for the yusho lead, I see no reason not to repromote kuroimori. Congrats once more! (This will not be considered as binding precedent for all future 9-6's by freshly demoted ozeki.) New banzuke for Natsu 2016: Asashosakari (Oe 9-6 D) O1 Tenshinhan (S1w 9-6 Y) kuroimori (S2w 9-6 D) O2 --- Pandaazuma (M1w 9-6 D) S chishafuwaku (M1e 8-7) Achiyama (M3w 9-6 D) K Holleshoryu (Ke kosho) Gurowake (M2e 8-7) M1 Mmikasazuma (M2w 8-7) Ryoshishokunin (Kw 6-9) M2 Tsubame (S1e 5-10) Profomisakari (M3e 6-9) M3 Jejima (M4e 6-9) Suwihuto (NR 0-15) M4 --- A bit of a borderline call, but I've deemed Tenshinhan's 10-5 D -> 8-7 -> 9-6 Y run to be good enough for promotion. Congrats! It's been almost two years since somebody kept the black forest guy and me company at the second-highest rank, so it was probably time for some fresh blood anyway. :-) Self-serving trivia note: Asashosakari (2015.01 onward) has now tied kuroimori (2012.09-2014.01) for the longest consecutive stint at the ozeki rank with 9 basho, and if he blows the tsuna run as usual, a new record will be set. (Of course, the longest run above sekiwake is still a bit off, which is Jejima's 3 ozeki + 8 yokozuna basho.) Not so self-serving trivia note: Having ascended yet again, kuroimori is now beginning his 4th stint as ozeki, leaving behind the previous record of 3 runs jointly held by him and Asojima. Last not least, this is our first-ever simultaneous promotion of two players to ozeki. Edited March 26, 2016 by Asashosakari 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Suwihuto 125 Posted March 26, 2016 I think I need to work harder to understand this game... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,320 Posted March 27, 2016 (edited) I think I need to work harder to understand this game...I was going to 'like' your post, but then I figured that might be taken the wrong way, so I'll just say: Hope to see you participating again despite that rough start. :-) The Natsu lineup ought to be confirmed now: 1. Kisenosato 13 2. Shodai 12* 3. Chiyoshoma 7 4. Chiyonokuni 7 5. Iwasaki 7* Omoto 6* 6. Rikito 7 Yoshikaze 5 7. Kotoyuki 6 8. Ura 6* 9. Daiki 6* 10. Yamaguchi 6 Koshinishiki 5 11. Hirotsukasa 6* Kirinoryu 5 Inoue 5* 12. Kakuryu 5 13. Kotoshogiku 5 Sokokurai 4 Akiseyama 4 14. Hokutoshu 5 --- 15. Takanoiwa 4 16. Nishikigi 4 See you then! (Bye, bye...) Edited March 27, 2016 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
