Basho Talk - Nagoya Basho 2016 +++ Spoiler Alert! +++

[kuroimori 1,634]

ex-Kyokutenho is on commentator for the Makuuchi bouts on NHK today!

[inhashi 2,363]

Wow... I could feel Toyohibiki's seismic oshidashi across the Pacific all the way to Chicago. Powerful.

[Taigiin khuu 42]

Just watched the Hidenoumi - Ishiura fight linked in the database. Go have a look, I assume that was clearly a wrong decision? At the least a rematch should have occurred, given that Ishiura was not in a fighting position?

(summary: Hidenoumi lifts Ishiura, walks out the ring and puts Ishiura down shortly AFTER stepping out).

Edited July 17, 2016 by Taigiin khuu

[hamcornheinz 839]

Just watched the Hidenoumi - Ishiura fight linked in the database. Go have a look, I assume that was clearly a wrong decision? At the least a rematch should have occurred, given that Ishiura was not in a fighting position?

(summary: Hidenoumi lifts Ishiura, walks out the ring and puts Ishiura down shortly AFTER stepping out).

If I recally correctly, there is actually a rule that if you lift someone and walk out of the ring, you still win. To keep people from slamming their opponents, I guess.

[tomayama 8]

More than 33 wins in three consecutive basho at upper makuuchi (sanyaku) and each basho better than the previous basho.

I'm sure that 13-12-11 wins in the Joi pretty much guarantee a promotion.

[WAKATAKE 2,655]

Toyohibiki certainly bullrushed himself to victory today

Chiyonokuni, entertaining the crowd, certainly back from that injury!

Chiyootori hasn't recovered from the "failed matta" yesterday

Endo, you're definitely not you this basho

Takarafuji gets spoiled by Aoiyama

Takayasu and Tochiozan, the battle for who's going to stay in the race, Takayasu was the more hungry

Kaisei, looking for another kachi-koshi and two consecutive East Sekiwake appearances!

Kisenosato, all in a day's work

Terunofuji just kept hanging on against Goeido, and patience paid off

Shodai gave Harumafuji a run for his money, this guy is going to be GOOD

Hakuho, clearly toying around with Shohozan today

[ALAKTORN 346]

Hakuhō did the matador, haha. Harumafuji cutting it close there.

[rzombie1988 157]

Welp, there goes the basho dreams of Takarafuji and Ichinojo. Takarafuji in particular squandered a huge opportunity today and got no help from Hakuho. And that's why he's not an Ozeki. Shouldn't have lost that, especially against the "slap or crap" style of Aoiyama. I wanted to believe in the neckless one. :-|

Ichinojo put up a really good fight and I have no idea where that Chiyonokuni came from. Can't say Ich didn't put in the effort, but I have a feeling he should be getting comfortable in the Maegashira ranks.

I'm going with the story that I heard a Kaisei chant today against Mitaekumi and that the crowd is ready to embrace their Brazilian hero...

Kisenosato looked good and didn't choke. He gets Terunofuji tomorrow who might benefit from Kise's slower style.

Harumafuji is looking pretty good going into the second week. Like a few others he really needs a Hakuho loss.

Edited July 17, 2016 by rzombie1988

[lackmaker 437]

Endo, you're definitely not you this basho

Unfortunately, and somewhat exaggerated, this seems to be what he's like when he reaches this level.

[bettega 431]

Kaisei, looking for another kachi-koshi and two consecutive East Sekiwake appearances!

Fusen jokes apart, Kaisei is doing a great work this year. His presence at sanyaku isn't banzuke luck - he truly deserve it. Hope he gets at least one KK at Sekiwake!

Edited July 17, 2016 by bettega

[hamcornheinz 839]

I'm calling it. Ichinojo is going to have a monster next basho. He seems to have his weight down.

[Atenzan 1,074]

It's very nice to see Takayasu doing this well this high. No Kisenosato to face must be nice for him too.

[Nojo_Jojo 7]

I'm calling it. Ichinojo is going to have a monster next basho. He seems to have his weight down.

Possibly not next Basho. He's likely going to end up M1-2 if he continues his run and gets 10 or so wins and don't think he is capable of having monster runs at that higher rank just yet.

But his weight control is making his look less lethargic both in body and mind right now. Must be helping his back as well, and that bodes well for his future.

[Kintamayama 45,081]

Just watched the Hidenoumi - Ishiura fight linked in the database. Go have a look, I assume that was clearly a wrong decision? At the least a rematch should have occurred, given that Ishiura was not in a fighting position?

(summary: Hidenoumi lifts Ishiura, walks out the ring and puts Ishiura down shortly AFTER stepping out).

Past discussion on this subject

[egparis18 622]

I'm calling it. Ichinojo is going to have a monster next basho. He seems to have his weight down.

Possibly not next Basho. He's likely going to end up M1-2 if he continues his run and gets 10 or so wins and don't think he is capable of having monster runs at that higher rank just yet.

But his weight control is making his look less lethargic both in body and mind right now. Must be helping his back as well, and that bodes well for his future.

Hamcornheinz might just be right, I hope so. I imagine though that Ichi's performance and rank will go up and down a while longer. Ichiyoyo.

The commentators (English) on day 5, I think, said he still has back pain, but a new exercise regime had helped. They also said that Ichinojo had himself said that 'a glass of water' will make him put on weight and that he avoids eating sugar and fat. Perhaps he ought to avoid harder.

He certainly looks happier.

I know he lost today, but I was impressed. I've never seen him look so agile. He stayed on his feet - it was Chiyonokuni who fell (I like him too). Ichi ran out of dohyo.

[skepticalsports 12]

Hi all. Thinking of preparing a (shorter) article for 538 (my tl;dr sumo feature is here) in the event that Kisenosato wins and is promoted.

It seems like, up until this year, Kisenosato had been an above-average ozeki, but probably below-average for a yokozuna. E.g., since making ozeki he has won 63 percent of his matches against other ozeki, but 38 percent against yokozuna. Here's a quick breakdown:

2012 2013 2014-15 2016

M 77.78% 85.37% 79.76% 85.71%

K 91.67% 81.82% 78.26% 85.71%

S 75.00% 50.00% 57.14% 87.50%

O 47.83% 78.57% 60.00% 87.50%

Y 28.57% 58.33% 29.62% 44.44%

In 2016 he has been especially consistent against non-yokozuna opponents, particularly in March and May bashos where he won all of his matches against them (29 match win streak against <Y opps is the longest of his career by a lot. Previous longest was 17 in 2013).

So I guess what I'm wondering is: Is there any narrative about what happened between January and March to help explain why he made this sudden jump (at age 30)? Or put a bit differently: Is there any plausible explanation other than just "on a pretty good run right now"?

As always, links to sources in English are always appreciated.

Edited July 17, 2016 by skepticalsports

[Dapeng 233]

Hakuho's next goal is makuuchi 1000 wins, which is still small in my opinion. The big one should be Yokozuna 1000 wins...

[inhashi 2,363]

So I guess what I'm wondering is: Is there any narrative about what happened between January and March to help explain why he made this sudden jump (at age 30)? Or put a bit differently: Is there any plausible explanation other than just "on a pretty good run right now"?

Ozeki Kotoshogiku won yusho in January of this year which may have relieved a ton of pressure off Kisenosato. I think mentally he's been able to defuse the expectation and desire for a Japanese born rikishi to win a tournament after 10 years. It's not so much as a plausible reasoning, but we all know that Kise has/had a lot going on in his head fighting against him in a way that he was always his worst enemy.

[Asashosakari 19,273]

Just watched the Hidenoumi - Ishiura fight linked in the database. Go have a look, I assume that was clearly a wrong decision? At the least a rematch should have occurred, given that Ishiura was not in a fighting position?

(summary: Hidenoumi lifts Ishiura, walks out the ring and puts Ishiura down shortly AFTER stepping out).

Past discussion on this subject

Yup, the Hidenoumi-Ishiura bout was probably the most textbook demonstration of shinitai during a lift-out that we've seen in years; most rikishi don't risk it and kinda lean/throw their opponent forward from the tsuridashi position to make sure the opponent is out while their own feet are still in (which does carry the danger of both tumbling down if there's too much momentum).

By the way, I think we also saw a nice case of kabaite (hand down first to try to protect your opponent from crashing onto him) in juryo earlier this basho - although the gyoji might have just given it to the overwhelming attacker without considering kabaite at all:

[Atenzan 1,074]

Skepticalsports,

Great work. Wish I could help you, but it seems that he was just fired up after Kotoshougiku's yusho and he just up and got good.

Now to the world in general: Wajima's and Oyanagi's careers started out quite similarly. Oyanagi started as a bottom-sandanme tsukedashi, Wajima started as an off-the-banzuke third Ms60. Oyanagi had 17 rensho to start his career, Wajima had 16. And both have a weird face. Extrapolating on this off-by-one thing they've got going (that's scientific as, boys and girls), Oyanagi is to become a career ozeki with either 13 or 15 Makuuchi yusho. sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=4074

[Kuroyama 715]

Great work. Wish I could help you, but it seems that he was just fired up after Kotoshougiku's yusho and he just up and got good.

Indeed. It has long been presumed that Kiesnosato's main problem wasn't that he was physically unable to win or that his skills were lacking, it was a mental problem where he'd get nervous, lose focus, get distracted, or whatever. What he needed was a good kick in the fundament, and Kotoshogiku's yusho was it.

[rzombie1988 157]

Hi all. Thinking of preparing a (shorter) article for 538 (my tl;dr sumo feature is here) in the event that Kisenosato wins and is promoted.

It seems like, up until this year, Kisenosato had been an above-average ozeki, but probably below-average for a yokozuna. E.g., since making ozeki he has won 63 percent of his matches against other ozeki, but 38 percent against yokozuna. Here's a quick breakdown:

2012 2013 2014-15 2016

M 77.78% 85.37% 79.76% 85.71%

K 91.67% 81.82% 78.26% 85.71%

S 75.00% 50.00% 57.14% 87.50%

O 47.83% 78.57% 60.00% 87.50%

Y 28.57% 58.33% 29.62% 44.44%

In 2016 he has been especially consistent against non-yokozuna opponents, particularly in March and May bashos where he won all of his matches against them (29 match win streak against <Y opps is the longest of his career by a lot. Previous longest was 17 in 2013).

So I guess what I'm wondering is: Is there any narrative about what happened between January and March to help explain why he made this sudden jump (at age 30)? Or put a bit differently: Is there any plausible explanation other than just "on a pretty good run right now"?

As always, links to sources in English are always appreciated.

I've mentioned it before and the big thing we are seeing with Kisenosato is that his first week of sumo is getting better. With Hakuho around, only 2 people have won tournaments with 3 losses in the last 4 years, so losses really do matter. In 3 of his last 4, Kisenosato has only lost once in the first week. I believe he's also getting helped by the Ozeki's and the Yokozuna's not named Hakuho doing rather poorly getting around 5-6 losses or more per basho. Attached are quick records of all Yokozuna and Ozeki from the last 5 bashos.

Edited July 17, 2016 by rzombie1988

[Gurowake 4,046]

Hi all. Thinking of preparing a (shorter) article for 538 (my tl;dr sumo feature is here) in the event that Kisenosato wins and is promoted.

It seems like, up until this year, Kisenosato had been an above-average ozeki, but probably below-average for a yokozuna. E.g., since making ozeki he has won 63 percent of his matches against other ozeki, but 38 percent against yokozuna. Here's a quick breakdown:

2012 2013 2014-15 2016

M 77.78% 85.37% 79.76% 85.71%

K 91.67% 81.82% 78.26% 85.71%

S 75.00% 50.00% 57.14% 87.50%

O 47.83% 78.57% 60.00% 87.50%

Y 28.57% 58.33% 29.62% 44.44%

In 2016 he has been especially consistent against non-yokozuna opponents, particularly in March and May bashos where he won all of his matches against them (29 match win streak against <Y opps is the longest of his career by a lot. Previous longest was 17 in 2013).

So I guess what I'm wondering is: Is there any narrative about what happened between January and March to help explain why he made this sudden jump (at age 30)? Or put a bit differently: Is there any plausible explanation other than just "on a pretty good run right now"?

As always, links to sources in English are always appreciated.

There is some reason to believe that the mental pressure is less, but I don't completely buy that sort of argument. There is still plenty of pressure on him to become Yokozuna, as I imagine has been desired of him since he made Makuuchi at 18 years old. That long-standing Japanese drought I don't think was of nearly as much importance to him mentally. There are still Great Expectations of him. Although I suppose another Ozeki winning may have caused him to redouble his efforts, I can't imagine he wasn't trying his hardest before. However, I don't really know; I'm no psychologist.

I always think "he's on a good run" is generally the best answer in pretty much all sports situations where someone is doing much better than they conventionally have for years previous. There is a great deal of randomness in Sumo as can be evidenced by how poorly people tend to do predicting it compared to some sort of reality where the better rikishi won a much higher percentage of the time. There's a reason why it remains interesting as a spectator sport - the matches can go either way, even when one rikishi is demonstrably better than the other. That leads to various people going on lucky streaks at times, which leads to Ozeki promotion requiring an average of 11 wins for 3 tournaments but ones that don't make it to Yokozuna rarely hit that mark after their promotion, and also leads to Yokozuna like Kakuryu (and Harumafuji to a lesser extent) who managed a good enough streak to get further promotion after being a mediocre Ozeki and not performing that much better than he did previously after his promotion. Kisenosato is just as good as those two Yokozuna, but just hasn't managed to seal the deal. People can say it might be partially mental; I think he's just been unlucky.

Edited July 17, 2016 by Gurowake

[Dwale 419]

Tournament still running hot on day eight. Some GREAT matches today, I had such a good time.

Shodai not getting the win, but holding his own with the yokozuna. Harumafuji is just, well, a yokozuna, he did what he's there to do, but Shodai doesn't make it easy. Very cool. Harumafuji used that neck push (I don't know the name), which seems to work less well against heavier and/or more experienced guys, but Shodai recovered from it admirably and went on the offense. Haru just too agile, though. Fantastic match.

Tochinoshin, just isn't right. But, Okinoumi not shabby at all for such a tough rank.

It's occurring to me how late it is to be posting about the day's sumo. I'll stop before this gets out of control. XP

Just briefly, if Ichinojo ever has that much fighting spirit every day, folks better watch out.

Yoshikaze is a real warrior in there. Mad props to him and his sumo, he's a battler through and through. No one with eyes in their heads will say, "This guy never tried hard enough."

Too bad Osunaarashi went kyujo, this would have been a great tournament to be an up-and-comer among the joijin!

Best of luck to Kisenosato.

[bettega 431]

Well, by Kisenosato smile in the first days I should say "new girlfriend" is the secret ingredient.

New girlfriend always increase wins. New wife always inscrease losses.

That's life. B-)

Edited July 17, 2016 by bettega