Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Hatsu 2017

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Onwards to a new year in LKS, with this ballot:

 1. Kisenosato     17  [score?]
 2. Hokutofuji     10*
 3. Yamaguchi      10
 4. Harumafuji      7  [score?]
 5. Shonannoumi     7
 6. Daiamami        6*
 7. Goshi           6
 8. Oyanagi         5*
 9. Rikishin        5
10. Ishibashi       5*
11. Tamaki          5*
12. Ichiki          5*
13. Yamatoarashi    5

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

- For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
- For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 13 guys up there and the further 9 rikishi (5 'veterans' and 4 newcomers) who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 22. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 12 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Kisenosato.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

Edited January 6, 2017 by Asashosakari

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,269]

1. 10-5
 2. KK
 3. MK
 4. 11-4
 5. MK
 6. MK
 7. KK
 8. KK
 9. KK
10. KK
11. KK
12. MK
13. MK

TB:13

[Jejima 1,384]

1. Kisenosato     11-4
 2. Hokutofuji     KK
 3. Yamaguchi      KK
 4. Harumafuji     14-1
 5. Shonannoumi    MK
 6. Daiamami       MK
 7. Goshi          MK
 8. Oyanagi        KK
 9. Rikishin       KK
10. Ishibashi      KK
11. Tamaki         KK
12. Ichiki         KK
13. Yamatoarashi   MK

TB: [16]

Edited January 7, 2017 by Jejima
Tie-breaker now entered.

[ryafuji 814]

1. Kisenosato 11-4

2. Hokutofuji KK

3. Yamaguchi KK

4. Harumafuji 10-5

5. Shonannoumi KK

6. Daiamami MK

7. Goshi MK

8. Oyanagi KK

9. Rikishin KK

10. Ishibashi MK

11. Tamaki KK

12. Ichiki MK

13. Yamatoarashi KK

 

TB: 12

 

[Profomisakari 857]

 1. Kisenosato   12
 2. Hokutofuji   KK
 3. Yamaguchi    KK
 4. Harumafuji   12
 5. Shonannoumi  MK
 6. Daiamami     MK
 7. Goshi        MK
 8. Oyanagi      KK
 9. Rikishin     KK
10. Ishibashi    KK
11. Tamaki       KK
12. Ichiki       KK
13. Yamatoarashi MK

TB: 13

[Ryoshishokunin 288]

1. 12
2. KK
3. KK
4. 10
5. MK
6. MK
7. kk
8. KK
9. KK
10. KK
11. KK
12. KK
13. MK

TB 16

It feels odd that there's only two sanyaku guys on the list.  

[Asashosakari 19,320]

@Jejima Your tiebreaker pick?

[Mmikasazuma 12]

 1. Kisenosato     13
 2. Hokutofuji     KK
 3. Yamaguchi      KK
 4. Harumafuji     10
 5. Shonannoumi    KK
 6. Daiamami       MK
 7. Goshi          MK
 8. Oyanagi        KK
 9. Rikishin       KK
10. Ishibashi      KK
11. Tamaki         KK
12. Ichiki         MK
13. Yamatoarashi   KK

TB 12

[Gurowake 4,052]

1. Kisenosato 11

2. Hokutofuji +

3. Yamaguchi -

4. Harumafuji 11

5. Shonannoumi -

6. Daiamami -

7. Goshi -

8. Oyanagi +

9. Rikishin -

10. Ishibashi +

11. Tamaki +

12. Ichiki +

13. Yamatoarashi -

 

TB: 12

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

 1. Kisenosato     11-4
 2. Hokutofuji     KK
 3. Yamaguchi      KK
 4. Harumafuji     11-4
 5. Shonannoumi    KK
 6. Daiamami       MK
 7. Goshi          KK
 8. Oyanagi        KK
 9. Rikishin       KK
10. Ishibashi      KK
11. Tamaki         KK
12. Ichiki         KK
13. Yamatoarashi   MK

TB: 16

Pandaazuma

[Tenshinhan 1,606]

 1. Kisenosato       11
 2. Hokutofuji     KK
 3. Yamaguchi      KK
 4. Harumafuji       11
 5. Shonannoumi    MK
 6. Daiamami       MK
 7. Goshi          MK
 8. Oyanagi        KK
 9. Rikishin       KK
10. Ishibashi      KK
11. Tamaki         MK
12. Ichiki         KK
13. Yamatoarashi   MK

TB: 12

[chishafuwaku 476]

 1. Kisenosato     11-4
 2. Hokutofuji                    KK
 3. Yamaguchi                  KK
 4. Harumafuji      10-5
 5. Shonannoumi                         MK
 6. Daiamami                                MK
 7. Goshi                                       MK
 8. Oyanagi                        KK
 9. Rikishin                                     MK
10. Ishibashi                      KK
11. Tamaki                                      MK
12. Ichiki                            KK
13. Yamatoarashi                           MK

TB 11

chishafuwaku

[Tsubame 361]

1. Kisenosato      11-4
2. Hokutofuji        KK
3. Yamaguchi      MK
4. Harumafuji      14-1
5. Shonanoumi   KK
6. Daiamami        KK
7. Goshi              KK
8. Oyanagi          KK
9. Rikishin           KK
10. Ishibashi         KK
11. Tamaki            MK
12. Ichiki               KK
13. Yamatoarashi  KK

TB: 17

[Holleshoryu 16]

1. 12-3
 2. KK
 3. KK
 4. 11-4
 5. KK
 6. KK
 7. KK
 8. KK
 9. KK
10. KK
11. MK
12. MK
13. KK

TB:13

[Achiyama 1,243]

1. Kisenosato      13

2. Hokutofuji        MK

3. Yamaguchi      KK

4. Harumafuji       10

5. Shonannoumi  MK

6. Daiamami        MK

7. Goshi               MK

8. Oyanagi           KK

9. Rikishin            MK

10. Ishibashi        KK

11. Tamaki          KK

12. Ichiki              KK

13. Yamatoarashi MK

TB: 13

[Asashosakari 19,320]

11 Kisenosato
+ Hokutofuji
+ Yamaguchi
11 Harumafuji
+ Shonannoumi
- Daiamami
- Goshi
+ Oyanagi
+ Rikishin
+ Ishibashi
- Tamaki
- Ichiki
- Yamatoarashi

TB: 12
 

[kuroimori 1,634]

1 Kisenosato 11-4

2 Hokutofuji MK

3 Yamaguchi KK

4 Harumafuji 10-5

5 Shonannoumi KK

6 Daiamami KK

7 Goshi MK

8 Oyanagi KK

9 Rikishin MK

10 Ishibashi KK

11 Tamaki MK

12 Ichiki KK

13 Yamatoarashi KK

 

TB 13

[Asashosakari 19,320]

We start the new year as we ended the last one, with 15 participants including one newcomer - welcome, Tsuchinoninjin! Here are the selection stats:

Player	Kise		Hokuto	Yamag	Haruma		Shonan	Daiama	Goshi	Oyanagi	Rikish	Ishiba	Tamaki	Ichiki	Yamato	TB	Cons
Tsuchinoninjin	-	10-5	+	-	+	11-4	-	-	+	+	+	+	+	-	-	13	1.56
ryafuji	-	11-4	+	+	-	10-5	+	-	-	+	+	-	+	-	+	12	1.72
Profomisakari	+	12-3	+	+	+	12-3	-	-	-	+	+	+	+	+	-	13	1.22
Ryoshishokunin	+	12-3	+	+	-	10-5	-	-	+	+	+	+	+	+	-	16	1.42
Mmikasazuma	+	13-2	+	+	-	10-5	+	-	-	+	+	+	+	-	+	12	1.56
Jejima	-	11-4	+	+	+	14-1	-	-	-	+	+	+	+	+	-	16	1.07
Gurowake	-	11-4	+	-	+	11-4	-	-	-	+	-	+	+	+	-	12	1.49
Pandaazuma	-	11-4	+	+	+	11-4	+	-	+	+	+	+	+	+	-	16	1.25
Tenshinhan	-	11-4	+	+	+	11-4	-	-	-	+	+	+	-	+	-	12	1.16
chishafuwaku	-	11-4	+	+	-	10-5	-	-	-	+	-	+	-	+	-	11	1.42
Tsubame	-	11-4	+	-	+	14-1	+	+	+	+	+	+	-	+	+	17	1.81
Holleshoryu	+	12-3	+	+	+	11-4	+	+	+	+	+	+	-	-	+	13	1.83
Achiyama	+	13-2	-	+	-	10-5	-	-	-	+	-	+	+	+	-	13	1.70
Asashosakari	-	11-4	+	+	+	11-4	+	-	-	+	+	+	-	-	-	12	1.32
kuroimori	-	11-4	-	+	-	10-5	+	+	-	+	-	+	-	+	+	13	1.94
	5:10		13:2	12:3	9:6		7:8	3:12	5:10	15:0	11:4	14:1	9:6	10:5	5:10
Results	+		+	+	-		+	+	+	+	-	+	-	+	-	14

Kisenosato received a 12-3 target record again, although less than half of us expect him to make it, while Harumafuji was downgraded to 11-4.

The surprising most unusual ballot was entered by ozeki kuroimori this time, while Jejima produced the most average picks - in fact, the most average possible, as all 13 votes were with the majority.

Edited March 19, 2017 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Results so far:

Harumafuji's early withdrawal was a lucky break for the six players that predicted him for less than 11 wins. Beyond that...

Day 8: Ozeki Kisenosato achieved the early KK, but of course still needs to win four more for his target. The first point of the competition was scored by Ishibashi who secured the quick 4-0. Good news for everyone bar ryafuji.

Day 10: Lowest-ranked ballot rikishi Yamatoarashi picked up the largely expected makekoshi.

In addition, three backup rikishi are already KK and will join the Haru ballot, namely collegiates Takemasa (Day 7), Hatooka (Day 9) and Kizaki (Day 10).

The early standings:

Day 10: 3/13 Decisions, TB 5-20
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	chishafuwaku	3	11
2	Achiyama	3	13
3	Ryoshishokunin	3	16
4	Asashosakari	2	12
4	Gurowake	2	12
4	Mmikasazuma	2	12
4	Tenshinhan	2	12
8	kuroimori	2	13
8	Profomisakari	2	13
8	Tsuchinoninjin	2	13
11	Jejima	2	16
11	Pandaazuma	2	16
13	ryafuji	1	12
14	Holleshoryu	1	13
15	Tsubame	1	17

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Day 11:

Kachikoshi for Hokutofuji and Daiamami, one widely expected, the other much less so. And the backup ranks produced two further KKs (for Takagenji and Kotoinagaki), while Kotokuzan failed in his quest for 5 KK.

No perfect scores now after the first five decisions.

Day 11: 5/13 Decisions, TB 9-19
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	chishafuwaku	4	11
2	Ryoshishokunin	4	16
3	Asashosakari	3	12
3	Gurowake	3	12
3	Mmikasazuma	3	12
3	Tenshinhan	3	12
7	Achiyama	3	13
7	Holleshoryu	3	13
7	kuroimori	3	13
7	Profomisakari	3	13
7	Tsuchinoninjin	3	13
12	Jejima	3	16
12	Pandaazuma	3	16
14	Tsubame	3	17
15	ryafuji	2	12

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Day 12:

Kachikoshi for Goshi and Ichiki in makushita, extending their streaks further. 10 correct picks on one of them, 10 wrong on the other, so a lot of variety in the day's results: 3 players scored both points, 3 others left emptyhanded.

The backup ranks saw Hikarugenji drop to 2-4, so he won't be appearing on the next ballot.

And the first sole leader of the basho is...

Day 12: 7/13 Decisions, TB 11-18
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Ryoshishokunin	6	16
2	chishafuwaku	5	11
3	Pandaazuma	5	16
4	Tsubame	5	17
5	Gurowake	4	12
5	Tenshinhan	4	12
7	Achiyama	4	13
7	Holleshoryu	4	13
7	kuroimori	4	13
7	Profomisakari	4	13
7	Tsuchinoninjin	4	13
12	Jejima	4	16
13	Asashosakari	3	12
13	Mmikasazuma	3	12
15	ryafuji	2	12

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Day 13:

Kise's target-clinching 12th win came on a freebie, and youngster Shonannoumi achieved his 8th straight kachikoshi.

Both outcomes weren't that widely predicted, and only two players managed to score with both. The leader wasn't among them, but neither was any of his immediate pursuers, so the sole lead is still on:

Day 13: 9/13 Decisions, TB 12-18
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Ryoshishokunin	7	16
2	Holleshoryu	6	13
3	Pandaazuma	6	16
4	Tsubame	6	17
5	Mmikasazuma	5	12
6	Achiyama	5	13
6	kuroimori	5	13
6	Profomisakari	5	13
9	chishafuwaku	5	11
10	Asashosakari	4	12
10	Gurowake	4	12
10	Tenshinhan	4	12
13	Tsuchinoninjin	4	13
14	Jejima	4	16
15	ryafuji	3	12

 

Edited January 21, 2017 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Day 14:

Juryo streakers Yamaguchi and Oyanagi both collected their KK-clinching win, largely to approval by us. And a little earlier collegiate talent Tamaki was sent to makekoshi - this was a minority opinion.

The backup ranks finish with 5 incoming rikishi as the last remaining candidates Tochimaru and Daiseido both went makekoshi.

Day 14: 12/13 Decisions, TB 14-15
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Holleshoryu	9	13
1	Ryoshishokunin	9	16
3	chishafuwaku	8	11
3	kuroimori	8	13
3	Pandaazuma	8	16
3	Tsubame	8	17
7	Achiyama	7	13
7	Asashosakari	7	12
7	Mmikasazuma	7	12
7	Profomisakari	7	13
7	Tenshinhan	7	12
12	Jejima	6	16
13	Gurowake	5	12
13	ryafuji	5	12
13	Tsuchinoninjin	5	13

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Day 15:

Only 4 players had selected a makekoshi as juryo rookie Rikishin's likely outcome, but two of them were part of the group trying to chase down the leaders - and when the MK came to pass today, suddenly we found ourselves with 4 players tied at the top. Time for some tie-breaking! Chishafuwaku, Holleshoryu, kuroimori and Ryoshishokunin will battle it out.

• TB scores? Who needs TB scores? That's a miss across the entire field, not just our four contenders.
• First bracket: Yusho winner Kisenosato's 12+ wins. Chishafuwaku and kuroimori did not expect that, so they're out.
• Second bracket: Hokutofuji's kachikoshi, correctly predicted by both remaining players.
• Third bracket: Yamaguchi's kachikoshi, also predicted by both.
• Fourth bracket: Harumafuji's injury-shortened appearance that made him miss his 11-4 target by a mile. Holleshoryu made the more optimistic guess - too optimistic, and he's out as well.

Congrats, Ryoshishokunin! First yusho for him, following a loss in another bracket playoff exactly a year ago.

The final standings:

Day 15: 13/13 Decisions, TB 14
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Ryoshishokunin	9	16
2	chishafuwaku	9	11
2	Holleshoryu	9	13
2	kuroimori	9	13
5	Achiyama	8	13
5	Pandaazuma	8	16
5	Tsubame	8	17
8	Asashosakari	7	12
8	Mmikasazuma	7	12
8	Profomisakari	7	13
8	Tenshinhan	7	12
12	Gurowake	6	12
12	Jejima	6	16
14	ryafuji	5	12
14	Tsuchinoninjin	5	13

New ballot for Haru 2017:

 1. Kisenosato     18
 2. Hokutofuji     11*
 3. Yamaguchi      11
    Harumafuji      7
 4. Shonannoumi     8
 5. Daiamami        7*
 6. Goshi           7
 7. Oyanagi         6*
    Rikishin        5
 8. Ishibashi       6*
    Tamaki          5*
 9. Ichiki          6*
    Yamatoarashi    5
10. Takagenji       5
11. Kizaki          5*
12. Takemasa        5*
13. Hatooka         5*
14. Kotoinagaki     5*
---
15. Tamawashi       4
16. Ryuden          4

Another bunch of yet-to-MK rookies plus two new sekitori, should be an interesting game next time.

As always, thanks for playing!

[Asashosakari 19,320]

Scores for banzuke purposes:

Ryoshishokunin 10 (9+top)
chishafuwaku 10 (9+top)
Holleshoryu 10 (9+top)
kuroimori 10 (9+top)
Achiyama 8
Pandaazuma 8
Tsubame 8
Asashosakari 7
Mmikasazuma 7
Profomisakari 7
Tenshinhan 7
Gurowake 6
Jejima 6
ryafuji 5
Tsuchinoninjin 5

Total: 114 / 15 = 7.60 ---> no adjustment

New banzuke for Haru 2017:

kuroimori (O1w 10-5 D)    O1  Tenshinhan (O1e 7-8)
chishafuwaku (Se 10-5 D)  O2  ---
Holleshoryu (Kw 10-5 D)   S1  Ryoshishokunin (M2w 10-5 Y)
---                       S2  Asashosakari (O2e 7-8)
Pandaazuma (Ke 8-7)       K   Achiyama (M1e 8-7)
Mmikasazuma (Sw 7-8)      M1  Tsubame (M3e 8-7)
Profomisakari (M4e 7-8)   M2  Gurowake (M2e 6-9)
ryafuji (M1w 5-10)        M3  Harry (M3w kosho)
Jejima (M4w 6-9)          M4  Tsuchinoninjin (NR 5-10)

Tenshinhan's extended tsunatori has fizzled out now, unfortunately, and he'll be kadoban. Kuroimori was also on watch following last basho's jun-yusho, but the four-way playoff loss here hasn't quite added enough to merit promotion. It's a definite tsunatori for March, though. Asashosakari, on the other hand, sees his 13-basho ozeki stint end after back-to-back 7-8's. We do continue on with three ozeki, as Kyushu yusho winner chishafuwaku posted another top result this basho, which made for an easy call. Congrats on the promotion!