The next Ozeki/Yokozuna

[Sakura 1,495]

So we often talk about whom is going to be the next Ozeki or Yokozuna. I decided to look at the most recent Ozeki and Yokozuna and see when the reached what milestones. I wanted to see if there was some sort of pattern.

In the tables below the number on the left is the number of the basho in which the rikishi first made a particular rank and the number on the right was the age of the rikishi when it was obtained. E.g. if a rikishi has a Makushita mark of 6/18 that meants that their 6th basho was the first appearance in Makushita at age 18.

Starting with the current Ys and Os.

	Mz	Ms	J	M	S/K	O	Y
Hakuho	1/16	13/18	18/18	20/19	24/19	32/21	39/22
Harumafuji	1/16	9/18	20/19	24/20	33/22	49/24	71/28
Kakuryu	1/16	18/19	25/20	31/21	46/23	63/26	75/28
Kisenosato	1/15	9/17	14/17	17/18	27/20	59/25	90/30
Goeido	1/18	5/19	12/20	17/21	24/22	58/28
Terunofuji	1/19	6/20	16/21	19/22	25/23	27/23
Kotoshogiku	1/18	6/18	16/20	19/21	32/23	59/27

Then the most recent ex-Yokozuna

	Mz	Ms	J	M	S/K	O	Y
Asashoryu	1/18	5/19	11/20	13/20	15/20	23/21	26/21
Musashimaru	1/18	6/19	12/20	14/20	17/21	28/22	60/28
Wakanohana	1/17	6/18	13/19	16/19	23/20	34/22	63/27
Takanohana	1/15	8/16	11/18	14/18	21/18	31/20	42/22
Akebono	1/18	8/20	13/20	16/21	19/21	27/23	31/24

The most recent ex-Ozeki that started from the very bottom

	Mz	Ms	J	M	S/K	O
Baruto	1/19	6/20	9/20	13/21	27/24	37/26
Kotooshu	1/19	6/20	10/21	12/21	15/22	20/22
Tochiazuma	1/18	6/18	10/19	13/20	17/20	44/25
Kaio	1/16	16/18	24/19	32/20	38/21	76/27
Chiyotaikai	1/16	9/17	17/19	30/21	34/22	39/22

Finally, the most recent ex-Ozeki that started from Makushita

	Mz	Ms	J	M	S/K	O
Kotomitsuki		1/22	5/23	8/24	12/24	52/31
Miyabiyama		1/21	3/21	5/21	11/22	14/23
Musoyama		1/20	3/21	5/21	8/22	45/28
Dejima		1/22	4/22	7/23	11/23	22/24

 

What can we see?

• Kisenosato took a long time to make Yokozuna, but also a long time to make Ozeki.
• He's not alone, of the current Y/O only Hakuho and Terunofuji made Ozeki quickly.
• The Yokozuna can be split two ways. The dai-Yokozuna that made the top rank in about 40 basho or fewer, and those Yokozuna who took 60+. 
• Terunofuji was clearly on Yokozuna pace before he got injured.
• Kakuryu and Kaio were very slow at reaching each milestone.
• Mostly these rikishi didn't spend long in Juryo. 2 or 3 basho was common and usually not more than 5.
• Of those Ozeki that started in Makushita, Kotomitsuki and Musoyama made lower Sanyaku quickly but laboured there for a long time before making Ozeki. The other two, Miyabiyama and Dejima made Ozeki quickly, but had short Ozeki careers before falling back to Maegashira for the rest of their time. A cautionary tale for Mitakeumi perhaps?

There is clearly not enough data here to make a good analysis. However, I thought I'd end with the records of some rikishi and see how they compared with those listed above.

Mz Ms J M S/K Shodai 1/22 5/23 10/23 12/24 18/25 Mitakeumi   1/22 3/22 5/22 11/23 Hokutofuji 1/22 5/23 9/24 11/24

 

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

So, the much hailed Shodai is already older than anybody on the list, and Mitakeumi isn't exactly fresh either.

[Sakura 1,495]

3 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

So, the much hailed Shodai is already older than anybody on the list, and Mitakeumi isn't exactly fresh either.

Mitakeumi is at least comparable to those others that started from Makushita in basho number and age. Shodai and Hokutofuji show good progression by basho number, but they both started at a late age.

[Churaumi 745]

9 hours ago, Sakura said:

Mitakeumi is at least comparable to those others that started from Makushita in basho number and age. Shodai and Hokutofuji show good progression by basho number, but they both started at a late age.

What I take away from this is it's probably better for a kid to go to the stable at 16 than to go to college and get the higher start coming in older. All the top guys now were already sanyaku around the age they would have graduated college, where a college wrestler coming into the stable at sandanme or makushita has to fight wrestlers and time to make it.

[Harry 67]

3 hours ago, Churaumi said:

What I take away from this is it's probably better for a kid to go to the stable at 16 than to go to college and get the higher start coming in older. All the top guys now were already sanyaku around the age they would have graduated college, where a college wrestler coming into the stable at sandanme or makushita has to fight wrestlers and time to make it.

What percentage of college guys flame out and leave sumo before they could get a kabu? Still a fairly high percentage I imagine, without knowing how to do a query like that. What do people who don't go to college do when they have to leave sumo? Only a few get high enough to stay in sumo for the rest of their lives and those that bow out are quite young, lots of years ahead of them. College should give you more options but if it means cutting short your true dream of doing well in sumo then it might not be worth it to get the degree and come in at makushita years late.

Edited February 7, 2017 by Harry

[Asashosakari 19,653]

18 minutes ago, Harry said:

What percentage of college guys flame out and leave sumo before they could get a kabu? Still a fairly high percentage I imagine, without knowing how to do a query like that. What do people who don't go to college do when they have to leave sumo? Only a few get high enough to stay in sumo for the rest of their lives and those that bow out are quite young, lots of years ahead of them. College should give you more options but if it means cutting short your true dream of doing well in sumo then it might not be worth it to get the degree and come in at makushita years late.

That depends on what "doing well in sumo" means to each individual rikishi. If it's about becoming a major star and maybe even yokozuna, then the limited evidence is that it's probably not a good idea to wait until after college to turn pro. If it's just about making a good living through sumo, as a makuuchi regular, then high school / college is worthwhile. You still get to hone your skills in a competitive environment, and while the attrition rate in amateur sumo is probably much the same as in the pro ranks, if you're one of the guys who succumbs to injury early (or just realize that you don't have what it takes), at least you're already in an education program.

[robnplunder 976]

Well, if college kids don't make it big in pro sumo, at least, they have college degree/education to fall back on. 

 

Of the 3 Japanese young guns, 4 if we include Endo, I like Mitakeumi's chance of becoming an Ozeki the most. 

Edited February 8, 2017 by robnplunder

[Gurowake 4,106]

Takayasu isn't that much older than this recent crop of collegiates, and he has the advantage of having been pro for over 10 years now.  He made it to the joi at a young age just like all the other current Y/O did (as did Tochiozan and Tochinoshin, and although they don't look like they'll be making the next step, they weren't all too far off), so I've had him pegged as a potential Ozeki like the two mentioned parentheticaly, but he's a good bit younger and thus more likely to have the time needed to develop.  27 I've heard/read described as the age at which people tend to reach their peak physically, so not only is he best positioned for an Ozeki run after this basho, I'd say he's the best bet for next Ozeki.  I will certainly agree with Kintamayama that Shodai will almost certainly be an Ozeki, but Takayasu is likely the next one.  (Though I'm only saying this after this most recent basho.  It was pretty up in the air between the two before this basho; if the results reverse, we'll be back where we started.)  Mitakeumi certainly is a possibility too, as might be a resurgent Ichinojo (who is younger than any of them!).  Osunaarashi used have potential here, but he's just shown himself to be too fragile.  Kagayaki and Daieisho we'll need to give a few more years, but their speed to Makuuchi isn't all that stellar compared to the current Y/O crop, and they should be vying for sanyaku by now if they were credible future Ozeki candidates.

Hokutofuji and everyone else ranked below him are still unknown quantities.  Don't let Oyanagi's 8-7 in Juryo fool you - Shodai had a couple 4-3s in Makushita which made me not so hot on his prospects, but he's turned out to be one of the strongest non-Ozeki a couple years later.

Edited February 8, 2017 by Gurowake

[RabidJohn 1,855]

12 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Hokutofuji and everyone else ranked below him are still unknown quantities.

Hokutofuji appears to be following a similar trajectory to Mitakeumi and Shodai, and if he can get another KK next time he'll have done better than either. In my head I'm already bracketing Hokutofuji with Mitakeumi and Shodai as a potential ozeki.

Currently those 3 have nothing in their track record to suggest they won't make it, but Takayasu is a different matter; he's only managed 3 consecutive KK once in makuuchi. He certainly appears to have stepped it up a gear, but I'm yet to be convinced it's up to anything more than sanyaku regular. I like seeing people succeed, though, so I hope he can prove me wrong.

[Akinomaki 40,775]

42 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

Takayasu is a different matter; he's only managed 3 consecutive KK once in makuuchi. He certainly appears to have stepped it up a gear, but I'm yet to be convinced it's up to anything more than sanyaku regular.

Kise's next mission is to pull him up.

[Gurowake 4,106]

4 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

Currently those 3 have nothing in their track record to suggest they won't make it, but Takayasu is a different matter; he's only managed 3 consecutive KK once in makuuchi. He certainly appears to have stepped it up a gear, but I'm yet to be convinced it's up to anything more than sanyaku regular. I like seeing people succeed, though, so I hope he can prove me wrong.

Three basho ago when he got 11 wins I would have agreed with you.  But he has now 3 double-digit basho out of 4, and still managed 7 in the 4th.  He looks to be about at the point where Goeido and Tochiozan were both holding down Sekiwake spots.  Which one of those two he manages to follow remains to be seen.

[Morty 1,505]

Some come in fast, some take their time and get there in the end if they avoid injuries and develop their skills. The Dai-Yoks all stand out because they get there young and have a long and illustrious career. Some of it is luck - arguably Kise has finally made it because of Hak's decline over the past year. Part of the reason Hak is the GOAT is because he has managed to avoid significant injury for so long. Each man's journey in sumo is different I guess. 

[RabidJohn 1,855]

17 hours ago, Gurowake said:

He looks to be about at the point where Goeido and Tochiozan were both holding down Sekiwake spots. Which one of those two he manages to follow remains to be seen.

I couldn't agree more - that's what I meant by 'sanyaku regular' - but his track record suggests that he's gonna keep getting the odd 7-8 or 6-9. Like you say, whether that bumps him down to komusubi or M1 occasionally, or merely puts him into kadoban status, remains to be seen.

I'm not expecting it to happen, but then I generally keep my expectations low for just about everything in life, which doesn't just avoid dashed hopes and disappointments; it also increases the likelihood of being pleasantly proven wrong!

Kise is a great example of this. Although I thought he'd win a yusho eventually, I never expected it to be Hatsu 2017, right on the back of picking up the most wins for 2016, nor for him to actually look like a yokozuna whilst doing so, nor for him to be immediately promoted thereafter. So I've had an unexpectedly pleasant start the the year that's put me in a far better mood than I probably deserve to be in.

[robnplunder 976]

Takayasu, Mitakeumi, Shodai, Endo, Hokutofuji, ..., I am betting at least 2 or 3 of these guys make it to Ozeki.  And who knows, when the current crop of Yokozunas retire, these guys would have a chance to replace 1 or 2 of those.    

[Sakura 1,495]

On 07/02/2017 at 20:47, Gurowake said:

Takayasu isn't that much older than this recent crop of collegiates, and he has the advantage of having been pro for over 10 years now.  He made it to the joi at a young age just like all the other current Y/O did (as did Tochiozan and Tochinoshin, and although they don't look like they'll be making the next step, they weren't all too far off)

 

I've updated my chart here to include all rikishi mentioned so far and adding a current basho/age column. I've listed them by current age. If Takayasu did make it to Ozeki he would have more of a Kaio progression. That's not necessarily a bad thing.

	Mz	Ms	J	M	S/K	Current
Tochiozan	1/17	7/18	11/19	14/20	27/22	72/29
Tochinoshin	1/18	6/19	12/20	14/20	27/22	65/29
Takayasu	1/15	20/18	35/20	38/21	51/23	71/26
Endo		1/22	3/22	4/22		24/26
Osunaarashi	1/19	7/20	10/21	12/21		31/25
Shodai	1/22	5/23	10/23	12/24	18/25	18/25
Hokutofuji	1/22	5/23	9/24	11/24		12/24
Mitakeumi		1/22	3/22	5/22	11/23	12/24
Ichinojo		1/20	3/21	5/21	6/21	20/23
Oyanagi		2/22	5/23			6/23
Daieisho	1/18	7/19	16/20	23/21		31/23
Kagayaki	1/15	9/17	28/20	35/21		41/22

 

Ichinojo probably has the best experience/age combo for a future Ozeki run if he can maintain his health. That doesn't mean that one of the others won't get there first; after all they are in position to make a strike already. 

[Sakura 1,495]

It's time to update this thread. I'll continue to post updates as new posts (when needed) rather than edit the top post so that we have a history of progression.

	Mz	Ms	J	M	S/K	O	Current
Takayasu	1/15	20/18	35/20	38/21	51/23	74/27	77/27
Mitakeumi		1/22	3/22	5/22	11/23		18/25
Takakeisho	1/18	5/18	11/19	15/20	21/21		21/21
Onosho	1/16	6/17	13/18	27/20	30/21		31/21

 

We know now that it was Takayasu that was the next to make Ozeki. He's on the older side for a Yokozuna run, in some ways, but there are enough Yokozuna listed above that didn't make it until 27+. He also has the advantage of the health decline of many at the top.

Despite his age, I feel like Mitakeumi needs more seasoning at Sekiwake lest he become an Ozeki with a quick kadoban and demotion.

As we know both Takakeisho and Onosho have reached Sanyaku at a young age, but I'm not convinced about Ozeki potential yet. The number of basho that Onosho took to get there isn't even that low compared with some of the numbers up there.

Edited February 2, 2018 by Sakura