Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2017

[Asashosakari 19,648]

15 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I was just saying that Akiseyama probably should get an (x).  I didn't mean to respond to anything in particular.

Ah, okay. I never (x) any KK or possible KK in the makushita top 5 though.  I almost didn't do it for Mitoryu either, but it seemed necessary to indicate that he's 100% out of the running.

Edited September 22, 2017 by Asashosakari

[Ack! 478]

Is there any precedent to support a 7-8 Ke to be ranked Kw next basho?  

[Gurowake 4,100]

8 minutes ago, Ack! said:

Is there any precedent to support a 7-8 Ke to be ranked Kw next basho?  

Tochinoshin, Kyushu 2015 -> Hatsu 2016.  I and I think many others predicted this as well; the next best candidates were 8-7 M3w and 12-3 M10w.  There were no kyujos and the M3w was from Isegahama, so he had a very light joi schedule, only Goeido (because of Myogiryu at S) among the Y/O.

Edited September 23, 2017 by Gurowake

[Bumpkin 438]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

I was just saying that Akiseyama probably should get an (x).  I didn't mean to respond to anything in particular.

If 5 Juryo are demoted than Akiseyama, with a 4th win, could get promoted.

[Katooshu 3,331]

Definitely agree on not being impressed by Shoji....

[word20 21]

 

Osunaarashi lost today and his record is 5-9. It seems that he is not coming back to Makuuchi division for some reason. He lsot to one in Makushita today

[Kishinoyama 596]

2 hours ago, word20 said:

 

It seems that he is not coming back to Makuuchi division for some reason.

One word=injured.

Edited September 23, 2017 by Kishinoyama

[Yubinhaad 11,761]

While Matsuda's family name is the expected characters 松田, his shikona is actually taken from Matsuda Shokudo, 満津田食堂, a restaurant owned by his parents in the family hometown of Iida, Nagano prefecture. It has been in business for 130 years after being founded in 1887. Last year he and some of his stablemates made the 40-minute journey to Iida from Gifu, where the summer jungyo began, to visit the restaurant. Katsudon, pork served over a bowl of rice, appears to be a speciality. (A few pictures in the box at the bottom)

Matsuda has a lot of judo experience and is particularly good at leg techniques, among them sasae tsurikomi ashi which is nimaigeri on the sumo dohyo. He has five wins with that in his career so far, including his first win this basho. He hadn't expected to have such a good basho, but after getting his seventh win yesterday he found himself surrounded by reporters in the hanamichi. "I always thought of this as other people's business, nothing to do with me," he said with a smile.

He will fight for the Sandanme yusho in a kettei-sen tomorrow against Enho. Nobody else has managed to defeat Enho yet, but Matsuda is very skillful and shouldn't be written off.


 

Spoiler

 

[Asashosakari 19,648]

Day 14 (results, text-only results):

    kyujo Hakuho        Y1   Harumafuji   10-4
    kyujo Kisenosato    Y2   Kakuryu      kyujo
   1-2-11 Takayasu      O1   Goeido       11-3

Welp, crisis averted to a degree of at least three-quarters: No first-ever 10-5 makuuchi yusho, no repeat of Tochiazuma senior's unsightly no-playoff 11-4 yusho, and no maegashira victory. If Goeido gets win #12 tomorrow it'll even look like a pretty normal basho, the various kyujo notwithstanding.

But getting back to some sense of chronology: Asanoyama's slight yusho hopes received a major setback when Onosho made short work of him, and were then killed off altogether by Goeido's defeat of Takanoiwa. Much like Goeido's previous two losing efforts it was anything but pretty for the leader though. Nevertheless it shifted the pressure over to Harumafuji who now needed to beat sekiwake Mitakeumi to keep the yusho race from ending a day early. And the yokozuna duly did win, putting himself in position to challenge Goeido for the championship in the final bout(s) of the day tomorrow.

Mitakeumi finds himself at 7-7 before senshuraku now and will have a clear-cut mission for tomorrow's all-sekiwake clash: Win and he stays Sekiwake East, lose and it's a trip down to komusubi. Yoshikaze likewise knows exactly what's in it - lose and stay Sekiwake West, or win and replace Mitakeumi on the more prestigious side.

The sanyaku situation as a whole remains quite the mess even with just one day to go. Tamawashi sent Shodai to makekoshi today and improved himself to 7-7 with that, so Day 15 will be a last-ditch opportunity for him to stay in sanyaku. All that means that we could end up with no spots for maegashira to move up if Mitakeumi loses and Tamawashi wins (giving us four lower sanyaku including demoted ozeki Terunofuji), or even two free positions with the opposite results where we'd have three sekiwake and both komusubi slots available.

The up to two promotees have arguably been settled, however: Top-ranked Kotoshogiku scored his 9th win against an overmatched Daieisho, and M3 Onosho also moved up to 9-5 by beating Asanoyama. I suspect that Kotoshogiku will have first dibs here even if he finishes 9-6 to an Onosho 10-5. The more interesting aspect is argubly what they'll do if there's no space for one or both of them. We saw them do M1w 9-6 -> M1e with poor Tochinoshin a couple of years ago, and the same could well happen to Giku this time. By analogy it's safe to say that Onosho won't be forcing any promotion with a 9-6, and quite probably not with a 10-5 either. The biggest question mark could be on Kotoshogiku if he finishes 10-5. There's never been a M1 who was left unpromoted after double digits.

(x) 1-5-8 Terunofuji    O2
     7-7  Mitakeumi     S    Yoshikaze     8-6
     7-7  Tamawashi     K    Tochiozan     6-8  (x)

                        M1   Kotoshogiku   9-5
                        M2
     9-5  Onosho        M3   Chiyotairyu   8-6
     8-6  Shohozan      M4
                        M5   Takakeisho    8-6

Besides the already mentioned Day 15 matchups (Harumafuji-Goeido and Mitakeumi-Yoshikaze) we'll also get Tamawashi's KK opportunity against Takakeisho, Kotoshogiku going against resurgent Takarafuji (9-5) and Onosho versus Takanoiwa (8-6 but three straight losses).

The situation for the low maegashira and high juryo looks fairly settled all of a sudden. Starting off with the juryo guys for a change: Both Myogiryu and Daiamami clinched their respective promotion records today, while Ryuden and Homarefuji fell down into the luck-needed category, guaranteeing a final tally of 4 "properly" promotable rikishi. And that meshes well with the makuuchi side of the equation - where Ishiura and Nishikigi both lost today to make sure that one of them will become the 4th demotee, joining Sadanoumi, Tokushoryu and Yutakayama. Currently it's Ishiura in line for the demotion, but a win tomorrow coupled with a Nishikigi loss could still turn that over.

Okinoumi meanwhile improved his record to 7-7 and should be safe from any sort of over-demotion shenanigans given the lack of further candidates in juryo.

The one wildcard here remains how they will decide to treat injured Ura. He's not safe by the numbers with just one win and Ishiura could even make that very apparent if he goes to 4-11 tomorrow.

                        M4   Ura         1-2-11 (?)
                        ...
(~)  3-11 Ishiura       M10
                        M11
                        M12  Sadanoumi    2-7-5 (x)
(1)  5-9  Nishikigi     M13
                        M14  Okinoumi      7-7  (o)
(x)  3-11 Tokushoryu    M15  Yutakayama    4-10 (x)
                        M16  ---

                        J1   Myogiryu      8-6  (o)
(o)  9-5  Aminishiki    J2
(o)  9-5  Daiamami      J3   Kotoyuki     10-4  (o)
                        J4
(~)  8-6  Ryuden        J5
(~)  9-5  Kyokushuho    J6   Homarefuji    9-5  (~)

It's not getting easy for Ishiura and Nishikigi tomorrow in any case - they meet high-rankers Aoiyama and Tochinoshin respectively.

Makushita continues to have more promotion applicants than available slots, and it's getting quite crowded now. Masunosho scored win #6 today and should be good for his sekitori debut. Kitataiki made the most of his juryo visit and beat Osunaarashi for his kachikoshi, but as it stands he's only the 4th-best candidate after Takagenji, Masunosho and Tobizaru.

KK streaker Kizaki is even only the 6th-best contender now, even if he prevails over Yago tomorrow. Yago himself dropped another bout today, definitely needs to win on senshuraku, and could conceivably even be sent to makushita if he wins it. Osunaarashi finds himself in nearly the same situation after today's loss, although his overdemotion potential might be lower than Yago's thanks to a better relative position (four spots ahead of the normal demotion zone, compared to just one spot for Yago). Last not least there's Gagamaru who fell to 4-10 and could easily be facing a harsh demotion as well if he picks up another defeat.

All in all, clear as mud. At least Seiro and Terutsuyoshi sneaked into KK territory today, so they're no longer a factor in the demotion race. Akiseyama in makushita fell to 3-4 (against last basho's juryo demotee Satoyama, by the way), and won't be challenging for promotion for a little while.

                        J7   Gagamaru      4-10 (?)
                        J8
                        J9
(1)  5-9  Osunaarashi   J10
                        J11
(x)  5-9  Kitaharima    J12  Seiro         8-6  (o)
(o)  8-6  Terutsuyoshi  J13  Yago          6-8  (1)
                        J14  Kizenryu     6-6-2 (x)

(o)  4-3  Takagenji     Ms1  Kitataiki     4-3
     5-2  Tobizaru      Ms2
(o)  6-1  Masunosho     Ms3  Kizaki        3-3
                        Ms4  Akiseyama     3-4  (x)
     5-2  Daishoho      Ms5  Shimanoumi    4-2

A suitably cruel torikumi was crafted for Day 15. Yago will have to go against fellow university grad Kizaki as mentioned, while Osunaarashi's survival is at stake against yusho contender Daiamami (9-5) and Gagamaru faces KK-seeking Chiyootori (7-7).

And while we're at it, the...

Juryo yusho race:

10-4 Kotoyuki
9-5 Aminishiki, Daiamami, Kyokushuho, Homarefuji, Abi

Back to the less than stunning leaders' performances as only Kotoyuki managed to vanquish Daiseido, while the Isegahama duo lost to Abi and Amakaze respectively. Abi kept up his own yusho hopes with that, with Daiamami and Kyokushuho also joining him at 9-5. Daiseido and Ryuden (3rd straight loss for the former sole leader) found themselves eliminated from contention.

And Abi gets another opportunity to affect the race tomorrow as he's been picked as Kotoyuki's final challenger. I'm a bit surprised they didn't go with Kyokushuho who's the higher-ranked guy that Kotoyuki has yet to meet, but perhaps the rest of the schedule wouldn't have worked out with that choice. Kyokushuho is getting a tough draw himself anyway in Chiyonoo (7-7). As for the rest of the contender schedule, it's Aminishiki against Amakaze (8-6), Daiamami against Osunaarashi (5-9 and trying to avoid the trip to makushita), and Homarefuji against Daiseido (8-6). So, anything from a sole 11-4 Kotoyuki yusho to a playoff with between 2 and 6 participants is in the cards here.

Just as a reminder, even if there's no juryo playoff we're guaranteed at least one such match courtesy of the sandanme division.

Edited September 23, 2017 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,100]

Sanyaku picture is pretty clear.  I don't think the anti-rookie bias is high enough to have Tamawashi keep his rank over Onosho.

Makuuchi - Juryo is pretty settled, only question is whether they'll drop Ura for Homarefuji.  They could even drop Nishikigi instead.  I don't think either of those are likely.

It's good Mitoryu didn't win the Yusho, or we'd be in real trouble with Juryo - Makushita.  I think they have to over-demote Yago, and I assume that the spot will go to Tobizaru, leaving Kitataiki out despite a 4-3 from Ms1w.  An over-demotion of Osunaarashi seems rather harsh given his location, and Gagamaru won his last match and isn't part of the picture.  If Mitoryu had won the yusho I think they would have done it, but a 4-3 Ms1w not making it is just a bit of bad luck and the other three are clear promotions that shouldn't be denied.

[Gurowake 4,100]

I wonder how long we can go with there being Ozeki promotions and demotions while maintaining the same number of sanyaku.

[Asashosakari 19,648]

Day 15 (results, text-only results):

    kyujo Hakuho        Y1   Harumafuji   11-4
    kyujo Kisenosato    Y2   Kakuryu      kyujo
   1-2-12 Takayasu      O1   Goeido       11-4

Nothing to see here, just another yusho won by a yokozuna. All kidding aside, that was a pretty fitting end to, indeed, Wacky Aki. Beating former runaway leader Goeido twice on senshuraku, Harumafuji became the 17th yusho winner to take the championship despite trailing before the final day. Congrats! Interestingly this stuff seems to happen in bunches - more than half the cases were in years that saw it happen multiple times (1974, 1999 and 2017 twice each, 1997 even three times). This is Harumafuji's 9th career yusho, moving him up to joint 15th place on the all-time list. And of course, as has been mentioned roughly 232 times by now, it's only the third makuuchi yusho ever to be won by a score of 11-4.

Goeido, meanwhile, missed out on becoming perhaps the least heralded two-time yusho winner since Masuiyama senior. He'll still get to take over the Ozeki East slot for Kyushu, with only Takayasu joining him due to Terunofuji's impending demotion.

Terunofuji for his part will be staging his repromotion effort from the S2e slot after Mitakeumi won the feisty sekiwake duel today to achieve his last-minute kachikoshi and keep himself ranked ahead of Yoshikaze. Yoshikaze did receive his 4th gino-sho for this basho's efforts, which now puts him at 10 sansho in total for his career, the 27th rikishi to reach this milestone.

Komusubi Tamawashi wasn't able to do what Mitakeumi did, fell to 7-8 at the final hurdle Takakeisho (that's almost as strange a combination as Gagamaru and limbo...), and has to join his West side counterpart Tochiozan on the way down to the maegashira ranks, ending a 6-basho stint in sanyaku. All that has thankfully cleared the path for Kotoshogiku and Onosho who both put some extra emphasis on their upcoming promotions by picking up their 10th wins, against Takarafuji and Takanoiwa respectively. Onosho will be the youngest sanyaku debutant since Kisenosato 11 years ago, if I'm not mistaken. Kotoshogiku becomes the 8th post-WWII ozeki to stage a return to the sanyaku ranks.

Onosho also received a sansho for his Aki success, his second kanto-sho after Natsu basho. Another kanto-sho went to top division debutant Asanoyama who finished the basho in double digits at 10-5 (and needed to beat Chiyotairyu today to secure the award). Last not least a shukun-sho was awarded to Takakeisho, who beat both yusho playoff participants. For him it's also his second sansho overall, following a kanto-sho in March.

(x) 1-5-9 Terunofuji    O2
     8-7  Mitakeumi     S    Yoshikaze     8-7
(x)  7-8  Tamawashi     K    Tochiozan     6-9  (x)

                        M1   Kotoshogiku  10-5  (o)
                        M2
(o) 10-5  Onosho        M3   Chiyotairyu   8-7
     8-7  Shohozan      M4
                        M5   Takakeisho    9-6
 

The picture in the lower maegashira and upper juryo ranks also appears to be fairly clear after Day 15. Nishikigi came through against top-ranked Tochinoshin for his 6th win and will certainly get to stay now, while Ishiura fell to 3-12 against Aoiyama and has no chance of a lucky reprieve. On the juryo side Aminishiki made sure to be the highest (re-)entrant for the banzuke-making session by winning his senshuraku bout; Myogiryu, Daiamami and Kotoyuki weren't so fortunate and will be progressing less deep into the maegashira spots now.

The one remaining wildcard here is the expected one. Ura's survival was always contingent on there not being enough credible promotees, and while there's no really strong 5th claimant we do have Homarefuji with 10 wins at J6, which might be good enough to trigger an exchange. Personally I think they'll allow Ura to stay, but it's far from definitive.

Homarefuji and Aminishiki did get to join a 4-way playoff for the juryo yusho after Kotoyuki failed to defend his one-win lead, but the champion turned out to be the one who made that lead evaporate to begin with: Youngster Abi won three bouts on the day, two of them against Kotoyuki. The erstwhile leader had progressed to the playoff final by beating Aminishiki, but had to yield there to Abi who had eliminated Homarefuji a few minutes earlier.

(That actually doesn't seem to be a particularly common scenario in juryo - off-hand I can only find 5 other cases where a pursuer beat a leader to get into a playoff, and then beat the same leader again with the championship on the line. And 4 of them have happened in just the last few years, the other one in 2004. [A few more playoffs also had such repeat wins, but the playoff wasn't finished yet at that point.])

                        M4   Ura         1-2-12 (?)
                        ...
(x)  3-12 Ishiura       M10
                        M11
                        M12  Sadanoumi    2-8-5 (x)
(o)  6-9  Nishikigi     M13
                        M14
(x)  4-11 Tokushoryu    M15  Yutakayama    4-11 (x)
                        M16  ---

                        J1   Myogiryu      8-7  (o)
(o) 10-5  Aminishiki    J2
(o)  9-6  Daiamami      J3   Kotoyuki     10-5  (o)
                        J4
(x)  8-7  Ryuden        J5
(x)  9-6  Kyokushuho    J6   Homarefuji   10-5  (?)
 

And on the other hand we have the situation at the sekitori/toriteki border... We got the arguably most messy outcome possible today, thanks to Osunaarashi, Gagamaru and Yago all winning their final matches. That leaves us with just two properly demotable rikishi (Kitaharima and Kizenryu), but 4 eminent promotion candidates. As detailed yesterday I would guess that top-ranked Takagenji will receive one of the available spots, and the other one should go to Masunosho by rights for his 6-1 record.

I concur with Gurowake above that Yago really should be demoted to make room for Tobizaru. Whether they'll actually do it is a different question... The next possible exchange would be Kitataiki for Osunaarashi, but that seems a step too far, as tough as it would be for Kitataiki to get stuck at Ms1. Gagamaru should be safe in any case.

I suppose a reasonably fair alternative would be to promote Masunosho and Tobizaru and leave both Ms1's in makushita, but that would be a significant departure from how they usually do it, with a significant bonus for the Ms1e guy.

Anyway, Yago's senshuraku win came at the expense of makushitan Kizaki who failed to score his 9th straight kachikoshi and will now need to start a new promotion attack in November. Let's hope he's not the next Maeta or Takunishiki, collegiate guys who went deep into the rankings in their initial run but whose first real setback turned out to be permanent.

Shimanoumi completed the hoshitori of the promotion zone rikishi with his 5th win, and both he and Daishoho will go high enough on the next banzuke to fight for a return to juryo. Both previously spent one basho in the second division.

                        J7   Gagamaru      5-10 (o)
                        J8
                        J9
(??) 6-9  Osunaarashi   J10
                        J11
(x)  5-10 Kitaharima    J12
                        J13  Yago          7-8  (?)
                        J14  Kizenryu     6-6-3 (x)

(o)  4-3  Takagenji     Ms1  Kitataiki     4-3  (??)
(?)  5-2  Tobizaru      Ms2
(o)  6-1  Masunosho     Ms3  Kizaki        3-4  (x)
                        Ms4
     5-2  Daishoho      Ms5  Shimanoumi    5-2

And finally, a playoff was also held to find the yusho winner in the sandanme division. Matsuda threw the kitchen sink at Enho but in the end it was another victory for the favourite whose winning streak now stands at 21 official bouts, plus 2 in maezumo and 2 in yusho playoffs.

That's it for Wacky Aki, and while the last two weeks were very entertaining in a surreal way, I'm kinda looking forward to a return to the regularly scheduled programming for Kyushu, hopefully with the top-rankers in somewhat better condition. See ya!

 

Edited September 24, 2017 by Asashosakari

[Sakura 1,495]

On 9/20/2017 at 13:03, Asashosakari said:

Day 11 (results, text-only results):

  It's not quite in the bag yet, but given Goeido's remaining opposition (three maegashira + Harumafuji) it's going to take one of the bigger collapses in recent memory for him to be caught.

#JustGoeidoThings

[Akinomaki 40,763]

Doten runner-up result for Goeido, start of a (silent) yokozuna run - any YDC / NSK top denial of that AFTER the basho is just talk and may change like the wind - but we need not fear the necessary 15-0 from Goeido (plus intai of a present yokozuna)  against a (hopefully) full set of yokozuna next basho.

And though most will say it can't happen (but anything CAN happen, it just usually won't in our lifetimes), I'm sure Kotoshogiku would be re-promoted with 12-3 runner-up and 13-2 yusho results in the next 2 basho.

Some oyakata on sponavi named the ms1w spot the nightmare position - while at ms1e, juryo promotion with a 4-3 is guaranteed now (but)  - except if there is really no space  - a 4-3 at ms1w won't force anybody down to make space.

Yago is at a position easy to over-demote, but say he won't and both Kitataiki and Tobizaru have to stay in makushita. Who of them gets the ms1e spot then? - It's been a while since a ms1w stayed at that position with a 4-3.

Edited September 25, 2017 by Akinomaki

[Atenzan 1,084]

You never know, but 11-4D doesn't look like a tsuna run to me. I know that was pre-Kisenosato, but I seem to remember that Terunofuji's 12-3D in the absence of Hakuhou and Harumafuji but in the presence of Kakuryuu, Kisenosato, Kotoshougiku and Goueidou was not treated as the start of a tsuna run, so this one looks extremely dubious. 

[serge_gva 52]

I an confident for Ura. As stated before, a M4 with 1 win was never demoted to juryo before. A J6w with 10 wins was promoted only twice in the last 10 occurences (with or without Yusho playoff).

I'm less confident for poor Osunaarashi. A demotion from J10e with 5 wins is a rare occurence lately (last time was 1999), but not that rare before (5/15x between 1977-1997). More problematic for Osuanarashi, he was defeated by Kitataiki on day 14!

Usually, do direct confrontations play a role in promotion/demotion's decisions?

 

Edited September 25, 2017 by serge_gva

[Washuyama 641]

13 minutes ago, serge_gva said:

but not that rare before (5/15x between 1977-1997).

There were also fewer slots in Makuuchi and Juryo in the late 70s.  (61 slots vs the present 70) which kind of skews the query results in the Db. 

[ScreechingOwl 343]

4 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

Doten runner-up result for Goeido, start of a (silent) yokozuna run - any YDC / NSK top denial of that AFTER the basho is just talk and may change like the wind - but we need not fear the necessary 15-0 from Goeido (plus intai of a present yokozuna)  against a (hopefully) full set of yokozuna next basho.

And though most will say it can't happen (but anything CAN happen, it just usually won't in our lifetimes), I'm sure Kotoshogiku would be re-promoted with 12-3 runner-up and 13-2 yusho results in the next 2 basho.

Some oyakata on sponavi named the ms1w spot the nightmare position - while at ms1e, juryo promotion with a 4-3 is guaranteed now (but)  - except if there is really no space  - a 4-3 at ms1w won't force anybody down to make space.

Yago is at a position easy to over-demote, but say he won't and both Kitataiki and Tobizaru have to stay in makushita. Who of them gets the ms1e spot then? - It's been a while since a ms1w stayed at that position with a 4-3.

The notion that Goeido has started a yokozuna run is ludicrous. Even if Goeido were to win by zensho yusho in Kyusho he wouldn't be promoted to yokozuna.

Goeido's performance in Aki was awful - he resorted to henka at least twice, often won by back peddling and pulling down his opponent, and blew a two win lead (three wins ahead of Harujafuji) with only four matches to go. Goeido defeated zero yokozuna and zero ozeki. Eleven wins is almost always meaningless for yokozuna promotion - and it's double meaningless in this case. (Well, it's probably impossible conceptually for anything to be double meaningless. But if it were possible, this would be it.)

[Tsubame 368]

While I think your are right, I just want to mention that he also got his ozeki promotion with just 32 wins!

[Akinomaki 40,763]

1 hour ago, Tsubame said:

While I think your are right, I just want to mention that he also got his ozeki promotion with just 32 wins!

And after an 8-7 the basho before: everybody AFTER that basho was 100% sure no ozeki run is possible.

Of course the shimpan department has ruled out any possibility of a yokozuna run. But that usually changes to "only with a 15-0 and absolutely overpowering every yokozuna/ozeki on the banzuke" before next basho - and once the basho starts and the excitement mounts, even this is soon forgotten.

[ryafuji 815]

Well I guess it technically meets the standard of "yusho or equivalent" as he was in contention up to the final match but surely they have to look at quality of opposition and quality of performance too. He looked anything but a yokozuna in waiting during this tournament.

[Asashosakari 19,648]

23 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

And after an 8-7 the basho before: everybody AFTER that basho was 100% sure no ozeki run is possible.

The time-honoured tradition of asserting a trend based on one data point.

I agree with ScrechingOwl, what you're predicting here is pretty ludicrous. He had eleven wins and in a kadoban basho no less, no amount of turning-a-blind-eye or focusing on the doten part is going to overcome that.

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

I won't even be surprised anymore if Goeido is made yokozuna after merely another 11-4 doten in November.

[Akinomaki 40,763]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

The time-honoured tradition of asserting a trend based on one data point.

I agree with ScrechingOwl, what you're predicting here is pretty ludicrous.

Of course ludicrous - but possible. I'm not predicting, I disregard statistics and probabilities, I only point out possibilities. And the trend is not based on one point but generally on the volatility of the post-basho announcements. The one data point where it actually led to a promotion was Goeido. Kise came close to it several times.

[just_some_guy 284]

This discussion will be moot when Goeido goes makekoshi next basho anyway.