Asashosakari 19,654 Posted November 10, 2017 (edited) Sorry, a bit late this time. Asanoyama has reached double-digits, and even as the only one on the ballot with a from-debut streak. Here's the list of rikishi for you to predict in the final basho of the year: 1. Asanoyama 10* 2. Abi 6 3. Mitakeumi 5 [score?] 4. Yoshikaze 5 [score?] 5. Onosho 5 [score?] 6. Meisei 5 7. Takanosho 5 8. Hokaho 5 9. Hotsukasa 510. Harumafuji 4 [score?]11. Chiyotairyu 412. Chiyomaru 413. Aminishiki 414. Daiseido 4 TB: [pick?] (* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut) The scoring and thus your game assignment: For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction. For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction. (For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.) First tie-breaker: From among those 14 guys up there and the further 9 rikishi (6 'veterans', 2 maezumo newcomers and SdTd Wakatakakage) who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 23. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records. Next 13 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Asanoyama. Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order). Final tie-breaker: earliest entry. Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker. Deadline: Shonichi noon JST. Edited November 11, 2017 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tsubame 368 Posted November 10, 2017 (edited) Asanoyama KK Abi KK Mitakeumi 6-9 Yoshikaze 8-7 Onosho 9-6 Meisei MK Takanosho KK Hokaho KK Hotsukasa MK Harumafuji MK Chiyotairyu MK Chiyomaru MK Aminishiki KK Daiseido MK TB: 12 Edited November 10, 2017 by Tsubame Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mmikasazuma 12 Posted November 10, 2017 Asanoyama KK Abi KK Mitakeumi 8-7 Yoshikaze 8-7 Onosho 8-7 Meisei KK Takanosho KK Hokaho MK Hotsukasa KK Harumafuji 11-4 Chiyotairyu MK Chiyomaru MK Aminishiki KK Daiseido KK TB: 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ryoshishokunin 323 Posted November 10, 2017 kk KK 8 8 MK KK KK MK MK 10 MK KK KK MK TB 16 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pandaazuma 1,310 Posted November 10, 2017 (edited) 1. Asanoyama KK 2. Abi KK 3. Mitakeumi 8-7 4. Yoshikaze MK 5. Onosho MK 6. Meisei KK 7. Takanosho MK 8. Hokaho MK 9. Omoto KK10. Harumafuji 10-511. Chiyotairyu MK12. Chiyomaru MK13. Aminishiki MK14. Daiseido KK TB: 11 Edited November 11, 2017 by Pandaazuma Slight amendment...and another! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jejima 1,414 Posted November 10, 2017 1. Asanoyama KK 2. Abi KK 3. Mitakeumi 10-54. Yoshikaze MK 5. Onosho MK 6. Meisei KK 7. Takanosho MK 8. Hokaho KK 9. Omoto MK10. Harumafuji 9-611. Chiyotairyu MK12. Chiyomaru KK13. Aminishiki KK14. Daiseido MK TB: 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sakura 1,495 Posted November 10, 2017 Asanoyama KK Abi KK Mitakeumi 8-7 Yoshikaze 8-7 Onosho 8-7 Meisei MK Takanosho MK Hokaho MK Omoto/ Hotsukasa MK Harumafuji 4-3-8 Chiyotairyu MK Chiyomaru MK Aminishiki MK Daiseido MK TB 11 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ryafuji 815 Posted November 11, 2017 1.Asanoyama KK 2.Abi KK 3.Mitakeumi 9-6 4.Yoshikaze 8-7 5.Onosho MK 6.Meisei MK 7.Takanosho KK 8. Hokaho KK 9.Omato KK 10. Harumafuji 11-4 11.Chiyotairyu MK 12.Chiyomaru MK 13.Aminishiki KK 14.Daiseido KK TB: 12 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted November 11, 2017 (edited) 1. Asanoyama KK 2. Abi KK 3. Mitakeumi 8 wins 4. Yoshikaze 8 wins 5. Onosho 8 wins 6. Meisei KK 7. Takanosho KK 8. Hokaho KK 9. Omoto KK 10. Harumafuji 11 wins 11. Chiyotairyu KK 12. Chiyomaru KK 13. Aminishiki KK 14. Daiseido KK TB 19 (I challenge someone to beat this TB) chishafuwaku Edited November 11, 2017 by chishafuwaku 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,107 Posted November 11, 2017 Down to 2 lower division rikishi, wow. 1. KK 2. KK 3. 8 4. MK 5. MK 6. KK 7. MK 8. MK 9. MK 10. 11 11. MK 12. MK 13. MK 14. MK TB: 11 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,654 Posted November 11, 2017 (edited) 11 hours ago, Tsubame said: Hotsukasa MK Oops! Thanks for the hint, I've changed it. Edited November 11, 2017 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WAKATAKE 2,671 Posted November 11, 2017 Asanoyama - KK Abi - KK Mitakeumi - 7 Yoshikaze - 9 Onosho - 5 Meisei - MK Takanosho - MK Hokaho - KK Hotsukasa - KK Harumafuji - 10 Chiyotairyu - MK Chiyomaru - KK TB - 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pandaazuma 1,310 Posted November 11, 2017 8 hours ago, chishafuwaku said: 1. Asanoyama KK 2. Abi KK 3. Mitakeumi 8 wins 4. Yoshikaze 8 wins 5. Onosho 8 wins 6. Meisei KK 7. Takanosho KK 8. Hokaho KK 9. Omoto KK 10. Harumafuji 11 wins 11. Chiyotairyu KK 12. Chiyomaru KK 13. Aminishiki KK 14. Daiseido KK TB 19 (I challenge someone to beat this TB) chishafuwaku If this line-up wins, I'll eat my neighbour's hamster! ;) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Profomisakari 873 Posted November 11, 2017 (edited) I think pandas eat only bambooI am worried about your stomachI hope you will stay fine after that. And what will your neighbour say? But here's my vote: 1. Asanoyama KK 2. Abi KK 3. Mitakeumi 8 4. Yoshikaze 7 5. Onosho 8 6. Meisei KK 7. Takanosho MK 8. Hokaho KK 9. Hotsukasa KK 10. Harumafuji 13 11. Chiyotairyu MK 12. Chiyomaru KK 13. Aminishiki KK 14. Daiseido MK TB: 12 Edited November 11, 2017 by Profomisakari 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Holleshoryu 17 Posted November 11, 2017 (edited) 1. Asanoyama KK 2. Abi KK 3. Mitakeumi 8-7 4. Yoshikaze 7-8 5. Onosho 6-9 6. Meisei KK 7. Takanosho MK 8. Hokaho MK 9. Omoto MK10. Harumafuji 11-411. Chiyotairyu MK12. Chiyomaru MK13. Aminishiki MK14. Daiseido KK TB: 12 Edited November 11, 2017 by Holleshoryu Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,654 Posted November 11, 2017 + Asanoyama + Abi - Mitakeumi - Yoshikaze 8 Onosho - Meisei + Takanosho - Hokaho - Hotsukasa 11 Harumafuji - Chiyotairyu - Chiyomaru - Aminishiki + Daiseido TB 11 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Achiyama 1,246 Posted November 11, 2017 1. Asanoyama KK 2. Abi MK 3. Mitakeumi 94. Yoshikaze 8 5. Onosho MK 6. Meisei MK 7. Takanosho KK 8. Hokaho MK 9. Omoto KK10. Harumafuji 1011. Chiyotairyu MK12. Chiyomaru MK13. Aminishiki MK14. Daiseido KK TB: 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kuroimori 1,634 Posted November 12, 2017 1. KK 2. KK 3. 8 4. 8 5. MK 6. MK 7. MK 8. MK 9. MK 10. 10 11. MK 12. MK 13. KK 14. MK TB: 12 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joaoiyama 313 Posted November 12, 2017 1. Asanoyama kk 2. Abi kk 3. Mitakeumi 10 4. Yoshikaze 9 5. Onosho mk 6. Meisei mk 7. Takanosho kk 8. Hokaho mk 9. Hotsukasa kk10. Harumafuji 1211. Chiyotairyu kk12. Chiyomaru mk13. Aminishiki mk14. Daiseido mk TB 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,654 Posted November 21, 2017 (edited) The somewhat belated selection stats...welcome to newcomer Joaoiyama! Player Asano Abi Mitake Yoshi Onosho Meisei Taka Hokaho Hotsu Haruma Ch'tai Ch'mar Amini Daisei TB Cons Tsubame + + - MK + 8-7 + 9-6 - + + - - MK - - + - 12 1.59 Mmikasazuma + + - 8-7 + 8-7 + 8-7 + + - + + 11-4 - - + + 14 1.53 Ryoshishokunin + + - 8-7 + 8-7 - MK + + - - - 10-5 - + + - 16 1.55 Jejima + + + 10-5 - MK - MK + - + - - 9-6 - + + - 14 1.85 Sakura + + - 8-7 + 8-7 + 8-7 - - - - - MK - - - - 11 1.53 ryafuji + + + 9-6 + 8-7 - MK - + + + + 11-4 - - + + 12 1.69 chishafuwaku + + - 8-7 + 8-7 + 8-7 + + + + + 11-4 + + + + 19 1.93 Gurowake + + - 8-7 - MK - MK + - - - + 11-4 - - - - 11 1.53 WAKATAKE + + - MK + 9-6 - MK - - + + - 10-5 - + 13 Profomisakari + + - 8-7 - MK + 8-7 + - + + + 13-2 - + + - 12 1.78 Holleshoryu + + - 8-7 - MK - MK + - - - + 11-4 - - - + 12 1.56 Asashosakari + + - MK - MK + 8-7 - + - - + 11-4 - - - + 11 1.63 Pandaazuma + + - 8-7 - MK - MK + - - + - 10-5 - - - + 11 1.56 Achiyama + - + 9-6 + 8-7 - MK - + - + - 10-5 - - - + 13 1.88 kuroimori + + - 8-7 + 8-7 - MK - - - - - 10-5 - - + - 12 1.43 Joaoiyama + + + 10-5 + 9-6 - MK - + - + + 12-3 + - - - 13 1.83 16:0 15:1 4:12 10:6 6:10 8:8 8:8 6:10 8:8 8:8 2:14 5:11 8:7 7:8 Results 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 It looked as though the top two would get unanimous + votes, until Achiyama broke up the monotony for some extra risk. (Unfortunately on the wrong rikishi...) The entries for joi returnee Chiyotairyu were similarly lopsided in the other direction, but overall this has to be one of the most evenly picked LKS editions ever. The sanyaku target records: Mitakeumi narrowly reached 9 wins thanks to 4 entries giving him at least that many (which has ruined chishafuwaku's all-positive slate), while Yoshikaze and Onosho ended up with just the minimum 8-win target, and Onosho not even getting a majority for that. Harumafuji's selections were evenly split by an 11-win goal. The most average entry comes courtesy of kuroimori this time, who has voted alongside the majority on all 14 slots. The most extreme ballot is, unsurprisingly, the optimistic one by chishafuwaku, although a consensus score of 1.93 isn't terribly high by historical standards. Achiyama's follows right behind, largely on the back of his Abi deviation from the majority. Gurowake and Holleshoryu ended up with nearly identical entries, differing only in their choice on Daiseido, appropriately the very last selection on the ballot. The most diverging ballots were submitted by Achiyama and Profomisakari who only have 3 choices in common. The expected tiebreaker range runs largely from 11 to 14 this time, with outliers of 16 by Ryoshishokunin and 19 by chishafuwaku. Edited November 21, 2017 by Asashosakari 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,654 Posted November 21, 2017 (edited) The news so far: Day 5 - Harumafuji's early withdrawal officially caused him to miss the target record here. Day 7 - Hotsukasa's KK streak has ended in the worst way possible with makekoshi already after four bouts. (By now he's even 0-5.) Day 8 - Harumafuji now also officially makekoshi and off the next ballot. Day 9 - And another early makekoshi, this time by Daiseido in juryo. Day 10 - Finally a kachikoshi record courtesy of promotion-chasing Abi. Four of the nine backup slots have been decided as well, also mostly with negative outcomes. Hokutoshu, Wakaichiro (both Day 9) and Terao (Day 10) have fallen to 1-4 records. Top prospect Ryuko on the other hand scored his 4th win on Day 9 and will join the ballot in the new year. The still early standings in this traditionally second week-dominated game: Day 10: 4/14 Decisions, TB 2-17 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Sakura 4 11 2 kuroimori 4 12 2 Tsubame 4 12 4 Jejima 4 14 5 Ryoshishokunin 4 16 6 Gurowake 3 11 7 Asashosakari 2 11 7 Pandaazuma 2 11 9 Holleshoryu 2 12 9 Profomisakari 2 12 11 Joaoiyama 2 13 11 WAKATAKE 2 13 13 ryafuji 1 12 14 Achiyama 1 13 15 Mmikasazuma 1 14 16 chishafuwaku 1 19 Edited November 22, 2017 by Asashosakari 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,654 Posted November 23, 2017 (edited) Day 12 After nothing of LKS relevance happened on Day 11 we're back with a trio of new outcomes today, courtesy of juryo debutant Takanosho (KK) and the Kokonoe pair Chiyotairyu and Chiyomaru (both MK). These resulted in quite varied scoring with 4 players picking up just one point, 7 entrants taking two, and 5 lucky ones walking away with the full complement of three points. In hopefuls action we've found our second new ballot member for Hatsu basho in six-year makushita veteran (but still only 24-year-old) Akinohana who moved up to 4-2 today. Sandanme tsukedashi entrant Wakatakakage and recent makushita returnee Kototsubasa fell to 2-4, however, and have missed out on their 5th straight KK. The standings through Day 12, with much more separation than usual and one player still perfect: Day 12: 7/14 Decisions, TB 4-13 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Tsubame 7 12 2 Sakura 6 11 3 kuroimori 6 12 4 Ryoshishokunin 6 16 5 Asashosakari 5 11 5 Gurowake 5 11 7 Jejima 5 14 8 Pandaazuma 4 11 9 Holleshoryu 4 12 9 ryafuji 4 12 11 Achiyama 4 13 11 Joaoiyama 4 13 13 Mmikasazuma 4 14 14 Profomisakari 3 12 15 WAKATAKE 3 13 16 chishafuwaku 2 19 The hamster appears to be safe, our collective TB guesses not so much. Edited November 23, 2017 by Asashosakari 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,654 Posted November 24, 2017 (edited) Day 13 Only one decision today, and it hasn't changed anything in LKS - Asanoyama has fallen to his first-ever MK. Something nobody was willing to bet on, so no points for anyone. Meanwhile, Ichiyamamoto has become our next entrant for Hatsu basho after scoring win #4 today. Edited November 24, 2017 by Asashosakari 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,654 Posted November 25, 2017 (edited) Day 14 Yoshikaze wasn't able to see out the year with all-kachikoshi results and will drop off the ballot now. Only a minority of players predicted this MK correctly. Also makekoshi is unfortunately Hokaho in makushita; this one had more people expecting it. In addition Mitakeumi is KK now and will get to stay on, but he still needs to win tomorrow to reach his 9-6 target record. Our last backupper has decided his fate as well: Daishoryu will be joining LKS proper for January after he secured his 4-3 kachikoshi today. The current standings: Day 14: 10/14 Decisions, TB 7-10 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Asashosakari 7 11 1 Gurowake 7 11 1 kuroimori 7 12 1 Ryoshishokunin 7 16 1 Sakura 7 11 1 Tsubame 7 12 7 Holleshoryu 6 12 7 Jejima 6 14 7 Pandaazuma 6 11 10 Achiyama 5 13 10 Joaoiyama 5 13 10 Mmikasazuma 5 14 13 Profomisakari 4 12 13 ryafuji 4 12 15 WAKATAKE 3 13 16 chishafuwaku 2 19 Whoah. It's rare that we're going into the final day with 4 open decisions, and with so many players in close competition as well. 9 players can still finish on first-place points (all leaders plus Jejima, Achiyama and Joaoiyama), but "only" 7 of them can still win the yusho through the 16 possible outcome permutations; Sakura and Achiyama would be beaten in all bracket playoffs they're able to get in. The number of possible winning scenarios for each contender: 4 Asashosakari 3 Gurowake, Tsubame 2 Jejima, kuroimori 1 Joaoiyama, Ryoshishokunin Meanwhile the tiebreaker has been busted open completely yet again, so no bonus win for anyone there this basho. Edited November 25, 2017 by Asashosakari 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sakura 1,495 Posted November 26, 2017 2 hours ago, Asashosakari said: Sakura and Achiyama would be beaten in all bracket playoffs they're able to get in. I swear this happens every time I get close. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
