Elections January 2018

[Kintamayama 44,560]

Tokitsukaze Ichimon has nominated Kagamiyama Oyakata (head of the Crisis Committee) and Izutsu Oyakata (didn't make it in  2016) as candidates for officers for the coming elections.

Edited December 18, 2017 by Kintamayama

[PawnSums 59]

kagamiyama could make a rule that takanohana has to come to HIS house

[Asashosakari 18,909]

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

2 hours ago, Churaumi said:

Isegahama jumping to resign doesn’t seem like that big a deal. He’ll get it back next election and it preempted other people picking a punishment for him.

Nobody is entirely sure he will be nominated by his own Ichimon this time. He may recuse himself, for all we know. I somehow doubt he will run for office.

Agreed, I would be surprised if this simply leads to him being riji again by April. That wouldn't be much of a punishment.

Isegahama-ichimon has a bit of a successor problem here if Isegahama can't run, don't they? All of their (eligible) handful of oyakata seem to lack either the personal standing or the seniority required of a credible director candidate.

Kiriyama (Kurosegawa), Oshima (Kaiki) - post-age 65, ineligible
Asakayama (Kaio), Tomozuna (Kyokutenho) - arguably too young at 45 and 43, no relevant administrative experience yet, probably busy establishing themselves as new stablemasters
Asahiyama (Kotonishiki), Nakagawa (Asahisato) - 49 and 52, perennial backbenchers, probably also busy with their still-new stables
Miyagino (Chikubayama) - 60 years old and in the limelight due to Hakuho, but never played a role in the Kyokai's administration
Takashima (Koboyama) - 60 years old, failed former stablemaster, no relevant positions since then
Tamagaki (Tomonohana) - 53 years old, part of the Fukuoka basho team, not a shisho, never on the radar for anything bigger before

(I'm assuming Nakagawa didn't move to the Tokitsukaze group when Oitekaze did last year.)

My gut feeling is that Nakagawa might be the most capable of them, given his skilled handling of the delicate Kasugayama-beya situation, but he's only a former M14 from his active days and would look out of place in a director position. Maybe they'll try to convince Kaio to run?

Edited December 20, 2017 by Asashosakari

[rhyen 1,816]

That was my thought as well.

it could either be Miyagino or Kaio, or they could throw their weight behind Oitekaze.

[WAKATAKE 2,637]

Asakayama would not want to get in there if he wants to keep building his heya up. From what I've seen the heya's numbers are slowly but steadily rising, and the young guys are climbing the banzuke. Would be a bad idea because that takes time away from your heya if you don't have another person with you. Tomozuna on the other could be up in the air, given that the heya has the other oyakata in there. If Isegahama doesn't run, the ichimon could pressure these guys into running, which would be rather unfortunate.

[Asashosakari 18,909]

(Quoted post is from the kabu thread)

12 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

And here we go- Shikoroyama Oyakata has left Tokitsukaze Ichimon together with Minato Oyakata and Tatsutagawa (ex- Houmashou). They will not be affiliated to any Ichimon for now, but will be backing Takanohana during the coming elections.

Shikoroyama and Minato are two of the three Tokitsukaze group guys who've been said to be Takanohana backers/voters since the first time he got elected to the board eight years ago. Sports Hochi made a semi-big deal out of the fact that the third one - Tokitsukaze himself - didn't attend Takanohana-beya's traditional end of year party a few days ago, so I don't know if he's no longer supporting Taka or if he's just not willing to compromise his role as the nominal head of the ichimon by leaving the group (as Tatsunami did a few years ago), but will still vote for Taka.

(Not to forget Oitekaze-beya's move to the Tokitsukaze group last year was rumoured to be motivated by Oitekaze supporting Takanohana as well...)

And I guess that kills my long-held supposition that Shikoroyama will be taking over the moribund Izutsu-beya as soon as Kakuryu is no longer active.

Edited December 22, 2017 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 18,909]

Voter totals by ichimon as of today...as usual the presumption is that oyakata on borrowed kabu will be expected to vote with their lending ichimon, not their own group.

Dewanoumi     30  31 -2 +1  (borrowing: ex-Hochiyama in Kimigahama, ex-Sadanofuji in Nakamura; loaned out: Onogawa to ex-Daido)
Nishonoseki   21  20    +1  (loaned out: Nakamura to ex-Sadanofuji)
Tokitsukaze   14  15 -1     (borrowing: ex-Tosayutaka in Sanoyama)
Takasago      14  12    +2  (loaned out: Kimigahama to ex-Hochiyama, Sanoyama to ex-Tosayutaka)
Isegahama     10  10
Takanohana     8   9 -1     (borrowing: ex-Daido in Onogawa)
"independent"  3   3

(As before, this assumes Nakagawa to be part of Isegahama-ichimon.)
 

Tokitsukaze's count may include (at least) two Takanohana-leaning voters with Tokitsukaze and Oitekaze, so their effective total of safe votes might only be 12 (or even less).

In addition I wonder whether one of the nominal members of Takanohana's camp is actually part of his voter base: Chiganoura-beya moved from Dewanoumi-ichimon to the Takanohana group when the stable was taken over by ex-Takamisugi in 2016, but former shisho ex-Masudayama is still affiliated to the stable in his position as Kyokai consultant. I'm not sure though if his loyalties are with Takanohana or Dewanoumi.

Will there be any last-minute retirements again? Two years ago we had Daido and Tosayutaka, in 2014 it was Hochiyama and Kimurayama. There's no shortage of possible candidates, that's for sure.

By the way, in hindsight there might be an explanation why Nishonoseki had 20 members last time, but only received 19 votes...Kotonishiki had made a surprise acquisation of the Asahiyama share from another ichimon shortly before the election, but a year later he took the share back to its original group (almost certainly a condition of his acquisition), which could indicate that his mandated loyalties during the election were actually with Isegahama, not Nishonoseki.

Anyway, that notion is possibly relevant because Asasekiryu (Takasago) has made a similar unexpected acquisition of the Nishikijima share from the Tokitsukaze group this year. (Which was originally even reported as a loan, and might well be one in practice.)

[Asashosakari 18,909]

Strange report by Sports Hochi this morning, claiming that Takanohana's support from the Tokitsukaze group has waned. Their support for this notion is the aforementioned recent departure of three Takanohana supporters, in conjunction with a claim that he had the support of at least six of them two years ago.

I've never seen that alleged before, and it doesn't make much sense to me given the election results in 2016, where Takanohana's camp had at least 7 votes of its own and received only 9 total, unless there's the wacky insinuation that Isegahama-ichimon's Takashima-oyakata was a strawman candidate for Takanohana. The vote totals for Takanohana+Isegahama+Takashima would match if they had six-vote outside support, but I don't really see what Takanohana would have got out of that arrangement, as it would have strengthened Isegahama as rijicho candidate at the time, not Takanohana. (No other scenario seems conceivable at all, given that the rest of the groups supported Hakkaku in the rijicho vote.)

In any case, the usual unnamed sources have supposedly told Hochi that the other Takanohana (ex-)supporters still believe in the need for reform but have found his recent behaviour disconcerting to the point that they no longer wish to cross the ichimon lines in the upcoming election. A Tokitsukaze-ichimon oyakata (also unnamed, of course) is additionally quoted as saying that the three defectors Terao et al. "are just outside of the [Tokitsukaze] ichimon now, not gone independent", suggesting that they might decide to rejoin in the future and would be welcomed back.

Edited December 24, 2017 by Asashosakari

[Sakura 1,476]

As this is my first sumo election cycle can you explain how it works? Do the directors get elected first, and then from those the rijicho? Are the votes secret? Would it be easy to defect from the ichimon's wishes if a voter really wanted to? 

Are there term limits for the rijicho?

[Gurowake 3,954]

On 12/21/2017 at 14:55, Asashosakari said:

Sports Hochi made a semi-big deal out of the fact that the third one - Tokitsukaze himself - didn't attend Takanohana-beya's traditional end of year party a few days ago, so I don't know if he's no longer supporting Taka or if he's just not willing to compromise his role as the nominal head of the ichimon by leaving the group (as Tatsunami did a few years ago), but will still vote for Taka.

This is really a case where "nominal" can be taken much more literally given that said Tatsunami defection occurred.  The only thing the name of the ichimon has to do with the name of the oyakata is simply the name itself.

[Asashosakari 18,909]

4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

This is really a case where "nominal" can be taken much more literally given that said Tatsunami defection occurred.  The only thing the name of the ichimon has to do with the name of the oyakata is simply the name itself.

I was hedging my bets because I don't know exactly how Tokitsukaze-ichimon sees that position, or how ex-Tokitsuumi himself sees it, as not all ichimon are alike. Being the Dewanoumi-oyakata still carries some weight, as far as I can tell, even if it's no longer the outright leadership role that it was up to Sadanoyama. The other namesake kabu used to be similarly respected, but obviously all of them were comprehensively ruined over the last couple of decades - incompetent and disliked Kongo in Nishonoseki, bumbling fool Asashio in Takasago, left-behind-by-the-times Kiyokuni in Isegahama, and deshi-killer Futatsuryu in Tokitsukaze - with three of those names being rehabilitated these days. (But where Tokitsuumi is the only straight-line successor; Wakashimazu and Asahifuji can't claim the kabu history, really.)

Personally, I don't think there's much of a chance of Tokitsuumi ever doing what Asahiyutaka did as Tatsunami, simply because it's still a very upsetting thing to do and he's not nearly the maverick that Asahiyutaka is. That also means I don't consider it all that meaningful that he hasn't joined the three others in leaving...it's certainly possible that he's no longer a "Takanohana guy" now, but I don't buy Sports Hochi's insinuation that the non-defection is strong evidence.

[Asashosakari 18,909]

5 hours ago, Sakura said:

As this is my first sumo election cycle can you explain how it works? Do the directors get elected first, and then from those the rijicho? Are the votes secret? Would it be easy to defect from the ichimon's wishes if a voter really wanted to? 

Are there term limits for the rijicho?

I highly recommend reading the complete thread about the 2016 elections, not only because it'll make some of the upcoming timelines and likely events more clear, but also because a lot of the Hakkaku vs Takanohana backstory can be found in there. (Also includes me getting pretty much every prediction wrong in the run-up to that election.)

To hit on your questions:

• During the week after Hatsu basho, the 100 or so oyakata are set to have a nominally secret vote to select 10 directors from a slate of usually 11 candidates, rarely 12. 
• If only 10 decide to throw their hats into the dohyo, there will be no vote and the nominated candidates will simply be confirmed by acclamation. That used to be the norm, as each of the 5 ichimon would have a fairly obvious number of "winnable" slots (between 1 and 3), but nowadays with Takanohana's group also in the mix there's usually at least one ichimon that tries to improve its position relative to the last election cycle.
• In addition to that, 3 deputy director positions will be selected according to the same principles.
• After Haru basho, ahead of the April start of the Kyokai's fiscal year, the 10 confirmed directors will then take office and select the new chief director from amongst themselves - again either by vote or by acclamation. A real vote here has been exceedingly rare; I'm actually not sure when they last had one before Hakkaku/Takanohana.
• In theory the oyakata are free and able to vote however they wish, but in practice all groups carefully allot their eligible voters to the nominated candidates to make sure that all of them get elected. That includes secret backroom deals to distribute any "leftover" votes, e.g. Takasago whose 14 votes are too few to elect two candidates of their own but too many for just one. Voting contrary to your assignment tends to have consequences.
• There's no term limit for the chief director, beyond the usual age limit of 65 that applies to everyone.

Edit: For additional perspectives, I can suggest the 1998 and 2002 entries in the "Oddities & Scandals" section of the Oyakata Gallery. (I think that also answers the question of the last competitive rijicho vote before 2016: 1998.)

Edited December 24, 2017 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 3,954]

On 12/20/2017 at 14:58, Asashosakari said:

Asakayama (Kaio), Tomozuna (Kyokutenho) - arguably too young at 45 and 43, no relevant administrative experience yet, probably busy establishing themselves as new stablemasters

Asakayama-beya is pretty new, but Tomozuna isn't.  Kyokutenho became shisho of his stable ahead of Tomonohana for some reason or other (I can't find any information about why through Google searches other than possibly trying to wade through Japanese articles which I'm not in the mood to do), perhaps because he had a more prestigious career and also was practically shisho to the Oshima guys and perhaps some of the others there when he retired.  However, Tomonohana has a background in physical education according to his Wikipedia page, so presumably even if he's not the kind of guy to be leading the stable, he should be decent as their coach while Kyokutenho fulfills his duties as a director.

Still, it's way way way too soon after his retirement for Kyokutenho to be considered, even if he was really old when he finally did retire.

[Naganoyama 5,874]

8 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Asakayama-beya is pretty new, but Tomozuna isn't.  Kyokutenho became shisho of his stable ahead of Tomonohana for some reason or other (I can't find any information about why through Google searches other than possibly trying to wade through Japanese articles which I'm not in the mood to do), perhaps because he had a more prestigious career and also was practically shisho to the Oshima guys and perhaps some of the others there when he retired.  However, Tomonohana has a background in physical education according to his Wikipedia page, so presumably even if he's not the kind of guy to be leading the stable, he should be decent as their coach while Kyokutenho fulfills his duties as a director.

Still, it's way way way too soon after his retirement for Kyokutenho to be considered, even if he was really old when he finally did retire.

He was otherwise going to branch out to re-form Oshima Beya.

[Asashosakari 18,909]

On 24.12.2017 at 02:29, Asashosakari said:

Strange report by Sports Hochi this morning, claiming that Takanohana's support from the Tokitsukaze group has waned. Their support for this notion is the aforementioned recent departure of three Takanohana supporters, in conjunction with a claim that he had the support of at least six of them two years ago.

And Sports Hochi doubled down on it a day later, now even claiming that the three Tokitsukaze defectors aren't supporting Takanohana either, and that some other unspecified disagreement is the reason for their departure from the ichimon.

[Kintamayama 44,560]

Shikoroyama Oyakata (ex-Teraou) has explained why he left the Tokitsukaze Ichimon. "I wanted to be able to freely speak my mind. I would like to voice my opinions on ways to better sumo, within the Kyokai rules, of course.. " he explained. In the past election, he went outside the Ichimon's wishes and backed Takanohana. "A lot of stuff has been said about the past but I myself haven't given it a thought yet, " he summed.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Kintamayama

[Asashosakari 18,909]

1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

Shikoroyama Oyakata (ex-Teraou) has explained why he left the Tokitsukaze Ichimon. "I wanted to be able to freely speak my mind. I would like to voice my opinions on ways to better sumo, within the Kyokai rules, of course.. " he explained. In the past election, he went outside the Ichimon's wishes and backed Takanohana. "A lot of stuff has been said about the past but I myself haven't given it a thought yet, " he summed.

I wonder if he's gonna run.

[Asashosakari 18,909]

Takasago-ichimon has made the entirely unsurprising decision to nominate Hakkaku as its candidate for the director election again.

[Asashosakari 18,909]

Nomination rumours via Sponichi: Asakayama (ex-Kaio) instead of Isegahama, and Shibatayama (ex-Onokuni) instead of Nishonoseki.

As for the latter - can't remember where I read it the other day, but Nishonoseki-ichimon apparently intends to wait with making their nominations official, in case Nishonoseki-oyakata can recover sufficiently from his bike accident to run again.

[Kintamayama 44,560]

Demoted Isegahama is going to run for the elections after all, say people with connections. The other candidate from Isegahama Ichimon is Takashima Oyakata who lost last time around..

[Asashosakari 18,909]

16 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Demoted Isegahama is going to run for the elections after all, say people with connections. The other candidate from Isegahama Ichimon is Takashima Oyakata who lost last time around..

The papers seem guardedly skeptical if that's a good idea by Isegahama, and while they don't come right out with that, the reason is obvious: A mere three-month demotion would be far below the penalties suffered by the oyakata whose deshi got themselves retired via cannabis, gambling, yaocho or beating up fellow bar patrons over the last 10 years.

In any case, Hochi adds that Takashima was put forward as a candidate at the ichimon's end of year party on December 23, but no official decision was made as not all of the 9 oyakata were present. 

(Incidentally, the count of 9 appears to imply that Nakagawa isn't part of Isegahama-ichimon after all... Hard to say though if that comment is a reflection of privileged information, or simply of lack of information.)

 

[rhyen 1,816]

Is Takashima oyakata aligned to the Takanohana faction?

Edited January 1, 2018 by rhyen

[Dapeng 232]

Both Takanohana and Isegahama will run for riji after being demoted for merely 2 months. Does this mean that they do not accept the kyokai's discipline? 

[Mutsu'ohideki 8]

27 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

Both Takanohana and Isegahama will run for riji after being demoted for merely 2 months. Does this mean that they do not accept the kyokai's discipline? 

Isegahama's was self-inflicted, and he just did it to show pretend sympathy, and more supporters for his sacrafice,.

he would kill to be rijicho.

and as shown, takanohana would LITERALLY kill to be rijicho

[Asashosakari 18,909]

Yesterday, somewhere at Sankei or their sports subsidiary Sanspo (can't remember now), the insinuation that Takanohana has "just shy of 10" votes of support from elsewhere, besides the 9 from his own group. In addition, one of their writers has become the first (so far as I've seen anyway) to muse openly if newly independent ex-Terao might be planning to throw his hat into this election power struggle.

Edited January 6, 2018 by Asashosakari