Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2018

[Qwerry 25]

1 minute ago, jalil_the_swan said:

Is it possible for Ikioi, Takekaze and Sokokurai to be demoted if they lose tomorrow?

Only Takekaze.

And very very low probability for Sokokurai

[Asashosakari 19,666]

Day 14 (results, text-only results):

    2-3-9 Hakuho        Y1   Kisenosato   1-5-8
    10-4  Kakuryu       Y2
     8-6  Goeido        O    Takayasu     11-3

And now it is done - congratulations, Tochinoshin!  Shohozan gave it all he had, but Tochinoshin just wouldn't be denied. It's the first hiramaku yusho since Kyokutenho's six years ago, the 20th overall in the 15-day era, and the 7th to be clinched by Day 14 (previously Kyushu 1957, Aki 1976, Nagoya 1991 [Day 13], Nagoya 1992, Kyushu 1998 and Aki 2001). It's the first yusho for Kasugano-beya in over 45 years, and if he wins tomorrow, he will post the stable's best win-loss record in almost 55.

The day's musubi no ichiban turned out to only guarantee the winner a share of the eventual jun-yusho record, but it ended up as a fine and suspenseful bout between Kakuryu and Takayasu. The ozeki won after quite a bit of back and forth, sending the yokozuna to his fourth straight loss. The other ozeki Goeido secured his late kachikoshi against Mitakeumi and can now go into Haru basho free of kadoban worries.

The battle for the second komusubi slot was decided in favour of the maegashira chasers today after Arawashi handed Tamawashi his 9th loss. Ironically Arawashi himself was eliminated from contention despite the victory, chiefly because Endo (ranked directly below him) was also successful. It'll now be between Endo and the 7-7 duo Kotoshogiku and Chiyotairyu who both maintained their shots at kachikoshi, beating Abi and Yoshikaze respectively.

     8-6  Mitakeumi     S    Tamawashi     5-9  (x)
(x)  5-9  Takakeisho    K    Onosho       4-6-4 (x)

                        M1   Ichinojo      9-5  (o)
                        M2   Kotoshogiku   7-7
     7-7  Chiyotairyu   M3   Tochinoshin  13-1  (o)
(x)  7-7  Shodai        M4   Arawashi      7-7  (x)
                        M5   Endo          9-5
(x)  7-7  Takarafuji    M6
                        M7
                        M8   Kaisei        8-6  (x)
(x)  9-5  Shohozan      M9

Tochinoshin's show program opponent for tomorrow will the Endo, who of course has something riding on that match with the sanyaku race. Kotoshogiku will go against fellow 7-7 Takarafuji, while Chiyotairyu gets 9-5 Daieisho. The tournament will be concluded by Kakuryu and Goeido, who hopefully will deliver a good match even though (or maybe because) the pressure is off both of them. Okinoumi is this basho's unlikely soroibumi participant, having been drawn as Tamawashi's last aite.

Strong results for the most part for the promotion-contending rikishi in juryo, with Myogiryu, Hidenoumi, Aoiyama and outside candidates Azumaryu and Kyokushuho all successful; only Kyokutaisei failed to join the winner's circle. Things have suddenly become complicated for most of them, though, as today's results in the low maegashira ranks were largely very favourable to those in danger of demotion. Asanoyama earned his kachikoshi and is out of the woods, and Nishikigi and Daiamami maintained their own chances. Ikioi took the expected win over Terunofuji and ought to be safe now - it's hard to see them overdemoting somebody by 2 full ranks from such a high position, even with a terrible 3-12 record.

Sokokurai and Takekaze failed to add to their shiroboshi tallies and remain seriously at risk.

                        M6   Ikioi         3-11 (o)
                        ...
(x) 0-7-7 Terunofuji    M10  Aminishiki   2-9-3 (x)
                        M11
(?)  5-9  Sokokurai     M12
(1)  5-9  Takekaze      M13  
                        M14
                        M15  Nishikigi     7-7  (?)
                        M16  Asanoyama     8-6  (o)
(1)  7-7  Daiamami      M17  ---

(o)  9-5  Myogiryu      J1   Kyokutaisei   8-6  (?)
(~)  7-7  Azumaryu      J2   Aoiyama       9-5  (?)
                        J3   Hidenoumi    10-4  (?)
(~)  8-6  Kyokushuho    J4
(~)  8-6  Tokushoryu    J5
                        J6
(x)  8-6  Sadanoumi     J7

Myogiryu is through, but I've downgraded the three rikishi on the West side to question-mark status for now, what with only one further slot definitely available and no clear frontrunner among them. Fortunately the schedulers appear to have set things in motion for a battlefield solution: Tomorrow's schedule will feature Nishikigi against Kyokutaisei and Daiamami versus Aoiyama, so the juryo guys will be largely in charge of their own destiny here. (The biggest question might be if Nishikigi would really get demoted if he falls to 7-8. Kyokutaisei would certainly go up in that situation, but they might decide to leave Hidenoumi in juryo if he's only 10-5. His opponent is 7-7 Takagenji.)

It would certainly help the juryo side as well if either Sokokurai or Takekaze were to lose. Sokokurai has drawn the significantly easier assignment here as he's Terunofuji's last makuuchi opponent for now. Takekaze will be going against 8-6 Asanoyama.
 

The various demotees-to-be in low juryo had another day to forget with kuroboshi all around, and Yamaguchi even withdrawing from the basho altogether. Akua's chances have now definitely evaporated, and even Tochihiryu will be a very tough keep at 10 losses. Asabenkei and Kitaharima from makushita were on the winning side against Akua and Kizenryu, and prettified their final records to 3-4 here. Ms2e Asabenkei might even stick in the top 5 ranks for an immediate next chance for promotion in March.

Further makushita action saw Yago fail to finish 6-1, losing to former juryo Dewahayate despite the significant difference in rank. Hakuyozan added his name to the list of low-ranked wannabe additional promotees with a crucial 5th win, while Wakamotoharu fell to makekoshi and out of contention, unable to join yusho-winning brother Wakatakakage.

                        J8   Osunaarashi  1-8-5 (x)
                        J9   Toyohibiki   kyujo (x)
                        J10
(x) kyujo Ura           J11
(x)  2-12 Yamaguchi     J12  Tochihiryu    4-10 (~)
                        J13
(x)  4-10 Akua          J14  Kizenryu      3-11 (x)

(o)  5-2  Yago          Ms1  Terutsuyoshi  4-2  (o)
                        Ms2  Shimanoumi    5-2  (o)
                        Ms3  Tobizaru      4-3  (o)
                        Ms4  Akiseyama     4-3  (o)
                        Ms5

     4-3  Enho          Ms6  Wakamotoharu  3-4  (x)
     4-2 Takayoshitoshi Ms7  Daiseido      4-2
                        Ms8  Hakuyozan     5-2
                        ...
                        Ms13 Dewahayate    6-1
                        ...
     7-0  Wakatakakage  Ms17

Yamaguchi's exit means that a makushita rikishi needs to be brought in for an 8th match tomorrow, and today's wins by Asabenkei and Kitaharima made the selection process unexpectedly complicated - they had to reach all the way down to Ms10w to find a rikishi who's worse than 3-4, so collegiate hopeful Tamaki has received the call. (I was kind of hoping they'd forego the MK requirement and select Yago instead...) Terutsuyoshi and Takayoshitoshi meet as expected (12+14 letters again...), and Daiseido goes against resurgent ex-maegashira Tenkaiho (Ms14e) who's on his 5th straight kachikoshi.

-----

Juryo yusho race:

10-4 Hidenoumi
9-5 Myogiryu, Aoiyama, Kotoeko
8-6 Kyokutaisei, Kyokushuho, Tokushoryu, Chiyonoo, Sadanoumi, Takanosho, Seiro, Mitoryu, Daishoho

Kotoeko lost for the third time in four days, this time to pursuer Aoiyama, but Hidenoumi scored his 7th successive victory to jump into the lead today. Yesterday's 8-5 group was largely unsuccessful, and only Myogiryu managed to join Aoiyama in staying in the race, with 5 others falling by the wayside.

The top 4 have already met in all possible combinations, so some other solutions had to be found and tomorrow's yusho battle by proxy will be fought in these matchups (listed in torikumi order this time):

J10w Kotoeko (9-5) - J5w Gagamaru (7-7)
J3w Hidenoumi (10-4) - J11w Takagenji (7-7)
J1e Myogiryu (9-5) - J10e Seiro (8-6)
J2w Aoiyama (9-5) - M17e Daiamami (7-7)

The various divisional playoffs will have to be delayed until after the first makuuchi bout, should Hidenoumi lose.

Edited January 27, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

33 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

It's the first hiramaku yusho since Kyokutenho's six years ago

Six years? Really?? It feels like just yesterday...

[Bumpkin 438]

5 hours ago, jalil_the_swan said:

Is it possible for Ikioi, Takekaze and Sokokurai to be demoted if they lose tomorrow?

By the numbers: M6w Ikioi (3-11)-no. M13e Takakaze (5-9)-yes. M12e Sokokurai (5-9)-no (Assuming there is an M17e).

[Yubinhaad 11,761]

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Yamaguchi's exit means that a makushita rikishi needs to be brought in for an 8th match tomorrow, and today's wins by Asabenkei and Kitaharima made the selection process unexpectedly complicated - they had to reach all the way down to Ms10w to find a rikishi who's worse than 3-4, so collegiate hopeful Tamaki has received the call.

Tamaki's hair is surely long enough by now for him to wear an oichomage for his first Juryo appearance.

Takita fought an 8th bout down in Jonokuchi today, so this will be the 29th basho in the seven-bout era in which two rikishi have been needed to fight an 8th bout, and the first since 2015 Natsu.

[shimodahito 317]

The Jonidan playoff between Shingaku and Kaiho is a TORCH match.

Thanks for a great thread!

[Bobsen020 0]

Is it possible, with all these losing records in the bottom of Juryo, for Enho to be promoted?

[Rocks 1,809]

4 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

4 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

It's the first hiramaku yusho since Kyokutenho's six years ago

Six years? Really?? It feels like just yesterday...

Kyokutenho's yusho portrait was the one taken down this basho too. Spooky......

[Bumpkin 438]

2 hours ago, Bobsen020 said:

Is it possible, with all these losing records in the bottom of Juryo, for Enho to be promoted?

Yes. Asashosakari has not put an (X) next to his name, yet.

[Ack! 478]

Who has the "win and in" situation for Kw, Kotoshogiku or Endo?  I think Koto controls his own destiny at this point.  Everyone else has to hope he loses.  Thoughts?

[Gurowake 4,107]

4 minutes ago, Ack! said:

Who has the "win and in" situation for Kw, Kotoshogiku or Endo?  I think Koto controls his own destiny at this point.  Everyone else has to hope he loses.  Thoughts?

By the numbers it stands:

Endo if he wins
else Kotoshogiku if he wins
else Chiyotairyu if he wins
else Endo

But it's questionable whether Endo does get in ahead of Kotoshogiku if they both win, seeing as they've been prejudiced against debuts, and I personally think anyone with a KK against the top rikishi deserves a sanyaku berth more than someone who has a slightly superior rank/record combo that hasn't faced most of the top rikishi.  Those things both contribute it to it being a possibility that 10-5 Endo will be passed over for Kotoshogiku.

On the other hand, it would mean that Endo beat both a Yokozuna (who finished the tournament) and the tournament winner.  Endo's also not nearly as new to the division as Mitakeumi was when he was passed over for Takayasu with the same sort of rank/record gap.  Plus, one of Kotoshogiku's wins was a fusensho.  So there are arguments both ways.

You could also maybe throw "Shodai if he wins" before the default line to Endo, for the same sorts of reasons as above, but his schedule was weaker than Kotoshogiku's, at least going by ranks and not counting the fusensho.  (Arawashi if he wins would *not* happen, as that would be another debut).

 

[Rocks 1,809]

I'm thinking part of the reason Endo is against Tochi Day 15 is to determine this. If Endo wins the K slot is his, if he loses certainly 1 of the 3 7-7s above him will win and they will get it instead.

[Gurowake 4,107]

12 minutes ago, Rocks said:

I'm thinking part of the reason Endo is against Tochi Day 15 is to determine this. If Endo wins the K slot is his, if he loses certainly 1 of the 3 7-7s above him will win and they will get it instead.

I understand what you meant when you used "certainly" there, especially since you're prone to very bold prognostications at other times, but this is a case where it's probably more important to only say something like "certainly" when there is a good reason to believe it is "certain" - like if they were paired against each other.

Also, there are 4 7-7s above him; Arawashi just isn't going to get there though.

[Rocks 1,809]

10 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Also, there are 4 7-7s above him; Arawashi just isn't going to get there though.

Yes, I forgot about Arawashi. But I think Arawashi needs Endo and all the others to lose to have a shot. 

As far as the use of the word certainly I generally see it used in the manner of an opinion, rather than a statement of fact that is incontrovertible.  Such as someone saying "Certainly you don't mean to say you think Gagamaru is the greatest rikishi ever." to someone who does, no matter how wrongly, think Gagamaru is the greatest. The person using certainly here would be using it correctly despite the fact it is not certain the other person doesn't think Gagamaru is the greatest. Rather simply that what is "certain" is far more likely than not   In this situation I think it is far more likely than not one of the 7-7s will get their KK.  As far as it being important I use certainly only in a certain manner? I don't find it important at all.

[Gurowake 4,107]

If you think it's fine to use a word that generally implies 100% confidence when there is absolutely a very real possibility, and not just a fringe one requiring any number of relatively unlikely outcomes, but one that only requires a few coin flips to go a certain way....fine.  Be that way.  I know what you meant.  But I will cry myself to sleep to know that language is changing that way.

[rzombie1988 159]

Kyokutaisei's bout to get screwed on his lone shot to get to Makuuchi. He needs to win tomorrow and he needs the judges demoting Terunofuji.

Takayasu could also use a big win tomorrow. If he were to win the next tournament, he'd have to be in consideration for promotion.

Edited January 28, 2018 by rzombie1988

[Ack! 478]

30 minutes ago, rzombie1988 said:

Takayasu could also use a big win tomorrow. If he were to win the next tournament, he'd have to be in consideration for promotion.

Is 12-3 a yusho equivalent?  I think 13-2 would be the bare minimum, and even then still questionable.

[Ack! 478]

3 hours ago, Rocks said:

I'm thinking part of the reason Endo is against Tochi Day 15 is to determine this. 

Gurowake's thoughts on Giku mirror my own, but I think Rocks has found the key.  Maybe one will lose and eliminate all debate.

[Bumpkin 438]

31 minutes ago, rzombie1988 said:

Kyokutaisei's bout to get screwed on his lone shot to get to Makuuchi. He needs to win tomorrow and he needs the judges demoting Terunofuji.

Takayasu could also use a big win tomorrow. If he were to win the next tournament, he'd have to be in consideration for promotion.

Wrong on all counts. Kyukotaisei is not about to get screwed. If he wins he will be promoted to Makuuchi. If he losses he won't. Terunofuji will be demoted to Juryo. Takayasu will not be promoted to Yokozuna even if he wins the yusho in Haru. 

[Yamanashi 3,904]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

If you think it's fine to use a word that generally implies 100% confidence when there is absolutely a very real possibility, and not just a fringe one requiring any number of relatively unlikely outcomes, but one that only requires a few coin flips to go a certain way....fine.  Be that way.  I know what you meant.  But I will cry myself to sleep to know that language is changing that way.

Rumack: I won't deceive you, Mr. Striker. We're running out of time.

Ted Striker: Surely there must be something you can do.

Rumack: I'm doing everything I can... and stop calling me Shirley!

Airplane! (1980)

[rzombie1988 159]

55 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

Wrong on all counts. Kyukotaisei is not about to get screwed. If he wins he will be promoted to Makuuchi. If he losses he won't. Terunofuji will be demoted to Juryo. Takayasu will not be promoted to Yokozuna even if he wins the yusho in Haru. 

We'll see what happens, smartypants.

And this is how you spell "loses".

Edited January 28, 2018 by rzombie1988

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

Takayasu will not be on a tsuna run, fair and simple. When he wins a yusho, then we'll hear the YDC and NSK start talking.

[Asashosakari 19,666]

14 hours ago, Yubinhaad said:

Tamaki's hair is surely long enough by now for him to wear an oichomage for his first Juryo appearance.

Takita fought an 8th bout down in Jonokuchi today, so this will be the 29th basho in the seven-bout era in which two rikishi have been needed to fight an 8th bout, and the first since 2015 Natsu.

Out of curiosity, do you count Kyushu 1998 with Toyozakura and Nomura?

[Taikoubana 144]

I think, regardless of Takayasu's performance in the next few basho, there's still a good chance that he could be on a tsuna run in 2019 (or perhaps even the end of 2018) should he stay consistent and not suffer any major injuries.

The spotlight right now is on Tochinoshin and his potential to become Ozeki in the future. He could make a decent Ozeki, but I feel he would have fluctuating records (12-3 one basho, 6-9 the next) and go kyujo at least once or twice a year due to his knee or new injuries. But if he keeps up the performance he showed here, I think the only thing that would stop him from the tsuna is that knee, but I could be wrong. Thoughts?

I'm looking forward to seeing Ryuden and Abi fight some tougher opponents in Haru. They both have sanyaku potential, although I'm leaning toward Ryuden.

[Asashosakari 19,666]

The final standings for the former sekitori.

new KK: Fujiazuma

new MK: Asahisho, Takaryu
 

Record	Rank	Shikona	Heya	Age	Out
5-2	Ms1e	Yago	Oguruma	23	1
4-3	Ms1w	Terutsuyoshi	Isegahama	23	1
3-4	Ms2e	Asabenkei	Takasago	28	8
5-2	Ms2w	Shimanoumi	Kise	28	9
0-1 intai	Ms3e	Kitataiki	Yamahibiki	35	3
4-3	Ms3w	Tobizaru	Oitekaze	25	3
3-4	Ms4e	Kitaharima	Yamahibiki	31	2
4-3	Ms4w	Akiseyama	Kise	32	10
0-3-4	Ms5e	Toyonoshima	Tokitsukaze	34	8
3-4	Ms5w	Jokoryu	Kise	29	10
4-3	Ms7w	Daiseido	Kise	25	1
kyujo	Ms9w	Chiyootori	Kokonoe	25	1
6-1	Ms13w	Dewahayate	Dewanoumi	28	9
5-2	Ms14e	Tenkaiho	Onoe	33	10
4-3	Ms14w	Kagamio	Kagamiyama	29	10
3-4	Ms15w	Asahisho	Tomozuna	28	4
2-5	Ms16e	Chiyoarashi	Kokonoe	26	27
3-4	Ms18w	Amuru	Onomatsu	34	6
4-3	Ms20w	Satoyama	Onoe	36	3
3-4	Ms23e	Sagatsukasa	Irumagawa	36	23
3-4	Ms25w	Takaryu	Kise	25	15
4-3	Ms26w	Fujiazuma	Tamanoi	30	5
5-2	Ms28w	Tokushinho	Kise	33	13
5-2	Ms29e	Oiwato	Hakkaku	36	25
2-5	Ms32e	Higonojo	Kise	33	22
6-1	Ms35e	Nionoumi	Yamahibiki	31	27
0-5-2	Ms38e	Kotomisen	Sadogatake	34	25
6-1	Ms44e	Keitenkai	Onomatsu	27	32
6-1	Ms47w	Sakigake	Shibatayama	31	18
2-5	Sd16w	Kaonishiki	Azumazeki	39	38
3-4	Sd19e	Hitenryu	Tatsunami	33	38
intai	Sd31w	Sotairyu	Tokitsukaze	35	17
6-1	Sd45w	Masunoyama	Chiganoura	27	17
4-3	Sd53e	Dairaido	Takadagawa	37	68
5-2	Sd72w	Yoshiazuma	Tamanoi	40	20
intai	Sd81w	Shotenro	Fujishima	35	11
kyujo	Jd20w	Masakaze	Oguruma	34	31

Masunoyama back to makushita next basho, for the first time since Aki 2015.