Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2018

[ryafuji 815]

I think they have already said Takanoiwa will be J14w. 

[Gurowake 4,108]

They wouldn't promote any of the potential 8th candidates over an absent J3 anyway.

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

Thanks for the unparallelled analysis, Pierre. :)

[Asashosakari 19,667]

Nikkan's beat writer doesn't sound terribly committed to the idea, but does mention that going below capacity might be on the table as a way to resolve the...what's the opposite of a logjam?...from makushita to juryo. "We will hold discussions" is all that substitute chief shimpan Dewanoumi has had to say about it.

[Shatsume 118]

I only got one hit for 1952 with this query, so I imagine beyond highly unlikely, but is it even possible do you think that Tamawashi could be demoted just to Komosubi? 

[Bumpkin 438]

6 minutes ago, Shatsume said:

I only got one hit for 1952 with this query, so I imagine beyond highly unlikely, but is it even possible do you think that Tamawashi could be demoted just to Komosubi? 

Anythings possible. M3e Chiyotairyu (8-7) should be the West Komusubi.

[Gurowake 4,108]

2 hours ago, Shatsume said:

I only got one hit for 1952 with this query, so I imagine beyond highly unlikely, but is it even possible do you think that Tamawashi could be demoted just to Komosubi? 

It's possible in the same sense that Tochinoshin could be ranked only as Komusubi.  Vaguely plausible in that it doesn't absolutely break any rules (unlike, say, promoting Tochinoshin to Ozeki right now), but quite unlikely given what they've done in the past.  I wouldn't consider anything from before the 6-basho era to be relevant.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,276]

5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Nikkan's beat writer doesn't sound terribly committed to the idea, but does mention that going below capacity might be on the table as a way to resolve the...what's the opposite of a logjam?...from makushita to juryo. "We will hold discussions" is all that substitute chief shimpan Dewanoumi has had to say about it.

Gaping void

[maorencze 144]

A question for wiser members (so mostly anyone other than me) please - was there any occurence of only one M-J promotion/demotion? SumoDB keeps refusing to communicate with me, sorry

Question above is driven by the notion that I'cant help but feel that 3 wins at Maegashira 10 could be enough to save Aminishiki at M17 and 5 wins for Takekaze at M13E could very well suffice for something like M16W. In other words I believe at least one of them did enough to save himself - especially in a situation when only two of Juryo sekitori did enough to warrant promotion. Am I too wrong?

[Atenzan 1,084]

34 minutes ago, maorencze said:

A question for wiser members (so mostly anyone other than me) please - was there any occurence of only one M-J promotion/demotion? SumoDB keeps refusing to communicate with me, sorry

Question above is driven by the notion that I'cant help but feel that 3 wins at Maegashira 10 could be enough to save Aminishiki at M17 and 5 wins for Takekaze at M13E could very well suffice for something like M16W. In other words I believe at least one of them did enough to save himself - especially in a situation when only two of Juryo sekitori did enough to warrant promotion. Am I too wrong?

It's happened quite a few times, although none in the past 18 years, excluding the 2011 yaocho debacle basho.

By the way, the SumoDB query is:

Group by basho (I suspect this is what you didn't do), require at most 1 matching result. 

Basho 1: Makuuchi division, year>1949

Basho 2: Juryo division. 

 

As for whether it can happen this time around, I highly doubt it. Juryo has 4 records that would usually be promoted, 3 of which are slam dunks in my eyes. And since Aminishiki and Takekaze "by the numbers" should both be J2, I doubt they will be kept in. I say they join Terunofuji on the way down for Myougiruu, Aoiyama and Hidenoumi. Kyokutaisei gets mildly screwed. 

[maorencze 144]

1 minute ago, McBugger said:

It's happened quite a few times, although none in the past 18 years, excluding the 2011 yaocho debacle basho.

By the way, the SumoDB query is:

Group by basho (I suspect this is what you didn't do), require at most 1 matching result. 

Basho 1: Makuuchi division, year>1949

Basho 2: Juryo division. 

 

As for whether it can happen this time around, I highly doubt it. Juryo has 4 records that would usually be promoted, 3 of which are slam dunks in my eyes. And since Aminishiki and Takekaze "by the numbers" should both be J2, I doubt they will be kept in. I say they join Terunofuji on the way down for Myougiruu, Aoiyama and Hidenoumi. Kyokutaisei gets mildly screwed. 

Thanks for opinion. I see it a tad differently "by the numbers", but that may be just me being optimistic and respecting my own criteria when building up my own banzuke guess

Also, I would suppose that if they promote 3 then Aoiyama should be the one remaining as J1E - Kyokutaisei beat him (day 2) so that along with 1 spot difference in rank should be enough. But that again may be just me respecting my own GTB criteria

[serge_gva 52]

With 3 wins only at M10 (east or west), no rikishi stayed in makuuchi ever since there is 42 wrestlers in the first division. And as said above, there is "promotable" candidates in Juryo, so no reason for an exception for Aminishiki.

With 5 wins at M13, chances are slightly better for Takekaze with 3 occurences of rikishi kept in Makuuchi:

• Natsu 2005: two J4 with 9-6 were not promoted and Takanowaka stayed at M17w. But Aoiyama is J2.
• Hatsu 2006: this is the most interesting case, because at J8e with 11 wins, Ryusho had a slight claim to promotion against Yoshokaze M10w with 5 wins, but stayed at J1.
• Nagoya 2013: really no promotable candidate (best was J8e with 9 wins or J9 with 10 wins). That's why they kept Tamawashi at M16w
   

On the other side, 9 wins at J2w means promotion in around 90% of the cases. But the last case a rikishi was stucked in Juryo is interesting: it was Takanoiwa 9-6 from J2w in Aki 2015. They preferred to keep 7-8 Asasekiryu from M15e (there was only one M16 spot at the time).

Another thing plays in favor of Takekaze: Aoiyama lost his last bout, against M17 Daiamami. If you consider this was a "promotion-decider" bout, then it's bad news for Aoiyama (same for Kyotutaisei's lost against Nishikigi).

I will give Takekaze a 20% chance to stay in Makuuchi (this is pure speculation)

Edited January 30, 2018 by serge_gva

[WAKATAKE 2,671]

And as it turns out, Wakatakakage will not get to be so lucky this time.

[Fukurou 534]

1 hour ago, WAKATAKE said:

And as it turns out, Wakatakakage will not get to be so lucky this time.

Speculation, or are the promotions out already?

[Dapeng 236]

2 minutes ago, Fukurou said:

Speculation, or are the promotions out already?

Already published.

[Dapeng 236]

Exactly as predicted by Asa.

[Fukurou 534]

12 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

Exactly as predicted by Asa.

Care to share a link or start a discussion thread? I can't find the prediction.

[Dapeng 236]

20 minutes ago, Fukurou said:

Care to share a link or start a discussion thread? I can't find the prediction.

Prediction by Asashosakari in this thread.

[Fukurou 534]

2 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

Prediction by Asashosakari in this thread.

I give up. I see many paragraphs, many rikishi going up and down, thoughts that it should be 5 or 7 up, but nowhere do I see him write: it will be X, Y, and Z.

[Gurowake 4,108]

21 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

Prediction by Asashosakari in this thread.

Is there a reason why you can't go to the trouble and type out 7 shikona, but can go to the trouble of typing out this?

[serge_gva 52]

On 28/01/2018 at 17:47, Asashosakari said:

Day 15 (results, text-only results):

Consequently, my guess is that Takayoshitoshi will be taking one of the slots, and that the other one is between Enho and Wakatakakage. I'm leaning towards Enho, because it avoids them having to rejustify the Ms15 in/out line the next time somebody goes 7-0 just below it. (The most deserving candidate is clearly Wakatakakage, though.)
 

 

[ryafuji 815]

Enho, Takayoshitoshi, Yago, Terutsuyoshi, Shimanoumi, Tobizaru, Akiseyama promoted.

Toyohibiki, Ura, Osunaarashi, Yamaguchi, Tochihiryu, Akua, Kizenryu demoted.

[Asashosakari 19,667]

My attempt at juryo and upper makushita...the latter is very much in wild guess territory. The guys falling from juryo might get treated a lot more generously than I have them here.

Pretty crowded in juryo thanks to 17 kachikoshi in the division.

Kyokutaisei (J1w 8-7)      J1   Takekaze (M13e 5-10)
Aminishiki (M10w 3-9-3)    J2   Kyokushuho (J4e 8-7)
Azumaryu (J2e 7-8)         J3   Meisei (J4w 8-7)
Sadanoumi (J7e 9-6)        J4   Tokushoryu (J5e 8-7)
Gagamaru (J5w 8-7)         J5   Terunofuji (M10e 0-8-7)
Chiyonoo (J6w 8-7)         J6   Takanosho (J9e 9-6)
Amakaze (J8e 8-7)          J7   Tsurugisho (J6e 7-8)
Kotoeko (J10w 9-6)         J8   Homarefuji (J7w 7-8)
Seiro (J10e 8-7)           J9   Daishoho (J13w 9-6)
Takagenji (J11w 8-7)       J10  Mitoryu (J13e 8-7)
Yago (Ms1e 5-2)            J11  Shimanoumi (Ms2w 5-2)
Terutsuyoshi (Ms1w 4-3)    J12  Tobizaru (Ms3w 4-3)
Akiseyama (Ms4w 4-3)       J13  Takanoiwa (J3e 0-0-15)
Takayoshitoshi (Ms7e 5-2)  J14  Enho (Ms6e 4-3)

Wakatakakage (Ms17e 7-0 Y)  Ms1   Hakuyozan (Ms8w 5-2)
Dewahayate (Ms13w 6-1)      Ms2   Daiseido (Ms7w 4-3)
Gokushindo (Ms17w 6-1)      Ms3   Chiyonoumi (Ms10e 4-3)
Asabenkei (Ms2e 3-4)        Ms4   Tochihiryu (J12w 4-11)
Tenkaiho (Ms14e 5-2)        Ms5   Kizaki (Ms11e 4-3)
Akua (J14e 4-11)            Ms6   Kitaharima (Ms4e 3-4)
Tsurubayashi (Ms15e 5-2)    Ms7   Osunaarashi (J8w 1-8-6)
Yamaguchi (J12e 2-12-1)     Ms8   Kizenryu (J14w 3-12)
Jokoryu (Ms5w 3-4)          Ms9   Toyohibiki (J9w 0-0-15)
Kagamio (Ms14w 4-3)         Ms10  Wakamotoharu (Ms6w 3-4)
Ura (J11e 0-0-15)           Ms11  Ichiyamamoto (Ms21e 5-2)
Daishoryu (Ms16w 4-3)       Ms12  Murata (Ms8e 3-4)
Kaisho (Sd8w 7-0 Y)         Ms13  Shonannoumi (Ms9e 3-4)
Nionoumi (Ms35e 6-1)        Ms14  Satoyama (Ms20w 4-3)
Kiribayama (Ms21w 4-3)      Ms15  Gochozan (Ms22w 4-3)
Tokushinho (Ms28w 5-2)      Ms16  Oiwato (Ms29e 5-2)
Hokaho (Ms12e 3-4)          Ms17  Irodori (Ms24e 4-3)
Takakento (Ms24w 4-3)       Ms18  Keitenkai (Ms44e 6-1)
Ryuko (Ms30w 5-2)           Ms19  Tamaki (Ms10w 3-5)
Kairyu (Ms25e 4-3)          Ms20  Tomokaze (Ms31e 5-2)
Tochiseiryu (Ms47e 6-1)     Ms21  Sakigake (Ms47w 6-1)
Fujiazuma (Ms26w 4-3)       Ms22  Asahisho (Ms15w 3-4)
Wakatakamoto (Ms34e 5-2)    Ms23  Shiba (Ms11w 2-5)

[kawika 123]

i don't know if this was mentioned, didn't find it via a simple search....what is the maximum number of promotions to juryo?  seven seems like a lot but i seem to recall seven rikishi promoted to juryo has happend within the last 7 years....

[Gurowake 4,108]

14 minutes ago, kawika said:

i don't know if this was mentioned, didn't find it via a simple search....what is the maximum number of promotions to juryo?  seven seems like a lot but i seem to recall seven rikishi promoted to juryo has happend within the last 7 years....

Are you counting times of mass demotion and the number of sekitori spots opening up, or not?